Aggregator

MD 1243 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 370... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern Iowa Concerning...Tornado Watch 370... Valid 242039Z - 242245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 370 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds will continue this afternoon. The main risk will be in parts of southeastern Iowa in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Winds in southwestern Iowa have veered to southwesterly. This trend continues to expand into parts of central Iowa as well. Where this has occurred, the tornado threat has decreased. Convection continues into northeast Iowa this afternoon. However, anvil debris and only partially modified outflow have kept buoyancy less than in southern/southeastern Iowa. Large hail and a brief tornado remain possible with the strongest storms. The primary area of tornado risk for the next 1-2 hours will likely exist with storms in south-central/southeastern Iowa. Here, buoyancy, storm mode, and low-level shear remain favorable. As storms progress farther into eastern Iowa, they will encounter decreasing moisture and increasing temperatures. While the tornado threat will decrease with eastward extent, large hail and damaging winds could still occur. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 40899301 41559347 42879361 43329320 43449221 43239181 42519169 41399186 41089188 40879243 40899301 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... AMENDED FOR EXPANSION/UPGRADING OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging winds and hail will be possible. An isolated severe threat will also be possible in the northern High Plains. ...Amended discussion for the Eastern U.S.... A mid to upper-level low will meander slowly eastward over the central Great Lakes during the period. An associated trough initially over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians is forecast to gradually shift eastward into the central Appalachians/Carolinas. A belt of moderate southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-40 kt) will overspread a destabilizing warm sector ahead of a front/composite outflow over the Appalachians. Strong heating ahead of the front and very moist low levels (66-74 deg F surface dewpoints) will likely result in a moderate to very unstable airmass from the Southeast northward into the Mid-Atlantic states. Several linear clusters of intensifying thunderstorms are forecast to develop by early afternoon in the immediate lee of the higher terrain. Further upscale growth into a more expansive band of linear segments is expected by late afternoon/early evening from the Mid-Atlantic states southward into the Carolinas. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary hazard due to 50-70 mph gusts. Isolated large hail may accompany the stronger cores. Have added 5-percent severe probabilities across the northeast Gulf Coast for the possibility of 1) at least isolated strong/severe thunderstorms pushing off the coast during the morning, and 2) diurnal storms rejuvenating on the composite outflow/front as it may provide a focus for additional storms. ---Previous Discussion--- ...Eastern U.S... An upper-level low is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region on Monday, as an associated trough moves into the southern Appalachians. At the surface, a front will move into the Appalachians as a pre-frontal trough develops from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate to strong instability is expected by afternoon along and near the surface trough. Convection will initiate in the higher terrain of the Appalachians and spread eastward into the Piedmont. It appears that an isolated severe threat will develop with storms that move into the stronger instability during the late afternoon from eastern Pennsylvania southward into the Carolinas. The greatest severe threat could be from southern Virginia into central North Carolina, where model forecasts suggest the combination of instability and shear will be maximized. Storms that form in this more favorable zone could have a threat for wind damage and hail, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will remain over the High Plains on Monday. At the surface, a narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across the central and northern High Plains. As instability increases during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop. The strongest storms may form from eastern Wyoming southeastward into western Nebraska, along and near the instability axis. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon near Scottsbluff, Nebraska have MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The large temperature-dewpoint spreads are expected to result in high storm bases. The storms could be associated with strong wind gusts and hail. ..Smith.. 06/24/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Minnesota and Iowa into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through this evening. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible. ...20Z Update... The outlook generally remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk in Iowa was expanded slightly westward into far northwest Iowa to account for potential redevelopment of an isolated supercell or two this evening, which would pose a risk of large hail. Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made based on the latest observations. For details, see the previous discussion, along with WW370. ..Weinman/Grams.. 06/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023/ ...Upper Midwest to Mid-MS Valley... Remnants of a decaying MCS persist in eastern IA with residual cloud cover and convective redevelopment in its wake across central into southwest IA. More pronounced insolation has occurred over northwest IA and parts of eastern NE. This will likely yield a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE approaching 2500 J/kg in a few hours. Morning guidance is insistent on surface-based thunderstorm development occurring by early afternoon, which appears a bit too soon given the lingering morning convection/cloudiness, but is plausible owing to modest mid-level lapse rates/EML. As such, confidence is below-average with regard to timing and evolution of this afternoon's severe threat. Downstream of a 60-65 kt 500-mb westerly jetlet centered on NE, deep-layer shear will support potential for several supercells. A few-hour window for a couple of these to produce tornadoes may overlap along the residual outflow boundary before convection likely consolidates into clusters and low-level winds become more veered into the evening. East to southeast-moving clusters may develop into a semi-organized MCS during the evening and yield a strong to isolated severe wind threat across the Mid-MS Valley. This activity should gradually weaken tonight after eventually outpacing greater instability/buoyancy to its west. A separate area of lower-topped tornado potential is evident in northwest/north-central MN along the surface warm front that will extend east of the primary cyclone centered near the northeast SD/southeast ND border area. Backed surface winds that veer with height will support enlarged low-level hodograph curvature. In conjunction with low LCLs, these factors may support a threat for brief tornadoes during the late afternoon to early evening. ...West TX to the Ozark Plateau... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon to early evening across at least west TX, and perhaps across parts of OK this evening into tonight. With a stout mid-level anticyclone centered along the Trans-Pecos portion of the Rio Grande, deep-layer shear will be progressively stronger with northeast extent towards the Ozark Plateau. Sporadic severe gusts from microbursts will be the main threat in TX, with a conditional threat for isolated severe wind/hail into the Ozark Plateau. ...LA vicinity... Despite weak low-level shear, a belt of modest mid-level northerlies will support potential for an isolated severe wind and hail threat as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon within the boundary-layer moisture/buoyancy gradient between LA/MS. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z The previous forecast remains on track. ... Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico ... A critically dry airmass will remain in place on Sunday. Deep mixing during the afternoon will result in near critical wind speeds (20 mph) across portions of this area. However, at this time, the greatest confidence in achieving critical wind speeds will be over less receptive fuels than other areas. As such, have not introduced a critical delineation, but will reevaluate with subsequent forecasts. ..Marsh.. 06/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is forecast to shift eastward and impinge on the enhanced sub-tropical ridge over portions of the Southwest Day2/Sunday. While height gradients aloft will increase in response to the approaching trough, the stronger flow aloft should remain displaced to the west of the driest air mass. Still, some enhancement of surface winds is expected over eastern AZ and western NM, with model soundings showing boundary-layer winds of 15-20 mph likely through the day. Deep mixing, and another day of warm temperatures, will also support low afternoon RH values in the single digits to teens. Favorable meteorological conditions for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected through much of the day over portions of western NM where fuels remain quite dry. Less confidence in receptive fuels exists farther west into AZ. However, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible given the dry and breezy conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from the Ohio Valley and potentially southwestward into the Mid South and into Mississippi and Alabama. Severe gusts resulting in wind damage and large to very large hail will be possible on Sunday. A couple of tornadoes are possible in the Ohio Valley. ...OH Valley into the Mid South and MS/AL... A mid-level low/associated trough over the upper to mid MS Valley will move east-southeast into the central Great Lakes by early Monday morning. A belt of strong 500-mb flow will move through the base of the trough over the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley and portions of the TN Valley. Large model variability is resulting in considerable uncertainty for this forecast with ongoing showers/thunderstorms expected Sunday morning from potentially the southwestern Great Lakes southward into the Mid South. With those caveats/concerns mentioned, a large reservoir of rich low-level moisture will reside from the lower MS Valley northward into the OH Valley in absence of any convective overturning during the morning. More aggressive model solutions for destabilization show the development of a very unstable to extremely unstable airmass developing from AR eastward through the Mid South and northward into the OH Valley. It seems likely some of this broad region will have a thunderstorm cluster with associated wind/hail risk deplete some of the potential instability. However, areas located on the periphery of the potential thunderstorm clusters/MCSs near residual outflow or on the front, will be favored areas for additional thunderstorms and a severe risk. It seems most probable that a concentrated area of wind-damage potential may reside over parts of the OH Valley southward into middle TN where the mid-level speed max is forecast to overspread the warm sector. Have aggressively expanded 5 and 15-percent wind probabilities into the upper OH Valley, MS/AL and into AR to account for both spatial uncertainty and the depiction by the last 6 model runs of the deterministic ECMWF and the latest HREF ensemble sshow several linear clusters moving across these corridors. By the mid evening, a gradual subsiding and confining of the severe risk is expected with the greatest risk perhaps shifting into parts of the lower MS Valley. ...Southeast WY... Strong heating amidst a weak upslope regime may foster a few thunderstorms during the afternoon over southeast WY near the Cheyenne Ridge. Strong mid- to high-level westerly flow strengthening with height will favor some organization with the stronger updrafts. An isolated risk for hail/wind may accompany the stronger cores for a few hours during the late afternoon/early evening before this activity subsides. ...Western ID and eastern OR... A mid-level low over the interior Pacific NW and strong heating will promote scattered thunderstorms developing during the day across the interior NW and northern Intermountain regions. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and adequate moisture will probably result in around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts may occur with the more robust convection during the late afternoon into the mid evening hours. ..Smith.. 06/24/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 24 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle
part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward,
parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred
miles south of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... AMENDED FOR INCREASING SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail and strong/damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, are expected across the North-central High Plains, with other severe storms across the southern Plains today and tonight. ...Amended discussion... Have increased hail/wind probabilities over parts of north TX due to the ongoing/developing severe clusters to the north and southeast of the greater DFW Metroplex vicinity. ...Discussion... Only a few minor modifications of the previous outlook. 1) Added 2-percent tornado probabilities from northeast CO southward through CO/KS into the TX Panhandle. 2) Enlarged the significant hail area over the southern High Plains. 3) Adjusted the Enhanced Risk (30-percent hail) westward to the ongoing severe thunderstorm activity over central WY. 4) Spatial enlarging of the 5-percent wind probabilities over eastern OK. ..Smith.. 06/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023/ ...North-central Plains... No changes for this region aside from Marginal-related spatial adjustments across Wyoming. The most concentrated, well-organized severe threat still appears to be over parts of the High Plains from southeastern Montana to western Nebraska this afternoon and evening. Scattered thunderstorms should evolve upscale from initial multicell and supercell development near the Bighorn and Laramie Ranges, with an early multimodal threat transitioning toward severe wind (locally 65+ kt gusts possible) with time this evening and overnight. A relatively narrow corridor of favorable airmass heating, warm-advection-related recovery, and upslope flow into higher terrain will support afternoon/evening severe potential. Activity should develop over and near the Wyoming ranges this afternoon as strengthening large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear spread over the region ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, conterminous with favorably, diabatically minimized MLCINH. Initial mixed-mode convection will offer all severe hazards, with tornadoes and significant hail being a threat from any sustained supercell(s). Steep low/middle-level lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer moisture will contribute to peak/preconvective MLCAPE ranging from near 3000 J/kg over the northeastern Colorado/southwestern Nebraska to 1000-2000 J/kg in a small part of northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. Lengthening and well-curved hodographs are forecast to develop as low-level cyclogenesis proceeds, in support of the hail/tornado threat. One or two MCSs should evolve this evening, accessing theta-e advection and moisture transport related to a 40-45 kt LLJ, with aggregation of cold pools rendering an increasingly widespread threat for damaging and severe gusts. The severe risk should continue eastward across Nebraska/South Dakota much of the night. ...Southern Plains including West/North Texas and Oklahoma... A cluster of strong/severe storms is ongoing across west-central Oklahoma at late morning. These storms continue to exhibit upscale-growing trends aside from a morning history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts. The potential for wind damage and isolated hail may persist east-southeastward across southern/central Oklahoma and nearby north Texas this afternoon. Otherwise, farther west, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop by mid/late afternoon near the dryline/lee trough across far west/northwest Texas including the Texas South Plains. These initially high-based storms will progress eastward, with some of these storms potentially interacting with the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone via the early day storms. Storms will gradually encounter greater low-level moisture as they move eastward, with surface dewpoints into the 60s and lower 70s F, with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE near and east of the Caprock. Though near-surface flow will be modest, strong veering with height will enable enough deep-layer shear (effective values around 35-40 kt) for a blend of early multicell and supercell modes, offering both large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts. A gradual coalescence of cold pools from multiple storms is probable, with a severe risk probably continuing eastward this evening into the overnight across north Texas and possibly southern Oklahoma. ...Eastern Colorado/western Kansas... Severe risk adjustments have been made across the region given trends in short-term observations/guidance. Concern exists for a viable potential for intense storm development, even if somewhat isolated, by mid/late afternoon, within a supercell-favorable environment including steep lapse rates, strong buoyancy and 40+ kt effective shear. ...Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Ahead of the upper low centered over Ohio/Lower Great Lakes, a moist environment with moderately enhanced low-level southerly winds may support a few stronger/locally severe storms this afternoon across the region. Read more

WW 0364 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0364 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 364 SEVERE TSTM TX 232155Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North central into east central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms, including embedded supercells, are expected to persist while spreading southward through the evening. The more intense storms will be capable of producing damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Dallas TX to 50 miles southeast of Corsicana TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 362...WW 363... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 35025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1223 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232129Z - 232330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple loosely organized storms capable of wind damage and marginal hail are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central and southern Florida this afternoon, generally focused along a southwest/northeast-oriented confluence band and sea breeze boundaries. Given continued diurnal destabilization of a moist air mass (lower/middle 70s dewpoints) beneath steeper-than-average midlevel lapse rates, storms could continue to strengthen through the afternoon. And, 30 kt of midlevel flow (sampled by the MLB VWP) could aid in some updraft organization. As storms generally spread northeastward toward the coast, locally damaging gusts and marginal hail could accompany any loosely organized clusters this afternoon. The threat should generally remain localized and marginal. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 26928046 26528072 26228109 26348162 27208166 27638169 28268178 28768136 28758070 28158040 27408025 26928046 Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0363 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 363 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 232055Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Western Kansas Eastern New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle West and Northwest Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storms will continue to develop through late afternoon and early evening across the region. These storms will be capable of large hail as well as severe-caliber wind gusts as they progress east-northeastward through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north northeast of Lamar CO to 45 miles south of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 361...WW 362... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1222 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Areas affected...eastern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232043Z - 232245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm development may intensify further, with at least some potential to consolidate into an increasingly organized cluster posing a risk for large hail and a swath of damaging wind gusts. It is not yet clear that a watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm activity has begun to initiate in a corridor near the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex into the Lufkin/Huntsville vicinities. This appears to aided by forcing for ascent driven by weak lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, downstream of a significant, but weakening cluster of storms now propagating southeastward into/across the Red River Valley. This is also focused along the eastern periphery of a plume of warm, capping elevated mixed-layer air, which appears to be support CAPE up to 4000 J/kg for boundary-layer moisture characterized by mid 70's F+ dew points. Beneath 25-30+ kt northwesterly flow around 500 mb, deep-layer shear appears at least marginally supportive for the evolution of supercell structures, and perhaps an upscale growing organized cluster as inhibition continues to weaken in the peak late afternoon heating. This may not be well handled by the convection allowing model output, and the environment appears at least conditionally supportive of large hail and increasing damaging potential. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 33329678 31549466 30479466 30439536 31299591 31579707 32349741 32839712 33329678 Read more

WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0362 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 362 TORNADO MT NE WY 232020Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 362 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Nebraska Panhandle Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe storms including supercells are expected to continue to develop, initially across a broad portion of eastern Wyoming this afternoon, before spreading into southeast Montana and the Nebraska Panhandle. Very large hail, severe-caliber wind gusts and tornadoes are all possible within a very moist environment, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer winds through the atmosphere. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northeast of Sheridan WY to 25 miles east southeast of Cheyenne WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 361... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...southwestern Kansas...the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...northeastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 232007Z - 232230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying supercells and small organizing clusters of storms appear possible by 5-7 PM CDT, if not earlier. DISCUSSION...A seasonably strong belt of west-southwesterly mid-level flow (40-50 kt around 500 mb) has nosed across the southern Rockies through the Raton Mesa vicinity and adjacent Great Plains, downstream of troughing progressing across the eastern Great Basin and southern Rockies. Forcing for ascent associated with the latter feature appears likely to aide ongoing convection now forming across and to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. During the next few hours, it appears that initially high-based thunderstorms will continue to form and advect off the higher terrain, before beginning to intensify near the eastward mixing dryline, northeast through east of the Raton Mesa vicinity into the western Texas Panhandle, as early as 22-00Z. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear and large mixed-layer CAPE (supported by seasonably high moisture content and steep lapse rates), models indicate that the environment will become conducive to a mix of discrete supercells and small upscale growing clusters posing a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Although low-level hodographs may remain modest until after dark, it is possible that the strongest discrete storms may also be accompanied by the risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35350277 36320330 37890269 38810347 39530281 38170130 36880149 35720127 34620118 33680183 34390251 35350277 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward parallel to the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
portion of next week several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Some slow development of this system is possible
thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore
of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with wind damage, isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado or two, will be possible from parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... A cluster of showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across the lower-mid MO Valley. An isolated risk for severe gusts may accompany this activity. As a mid-level trough gradually moves east across the north-central states on Saturday, strong westerly flow moving through the base of the trough will feature 50-kt 500mb flow. A front will move eastward into the mid Missouri Valley and encounter surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Considerable uncertainty exists whether the shower/thunderstorm activity Saturday morning will regenerate or new development will focus on the outflow, or if the front will be the focus for afternoon storm development. Regardless, a very moist/unstable airmass will reside across the lower MO Valley northward into IA/southern MN. Supercells capable of all hazards are possible during a relatively confined time window during the afternoon/early evening. A more probable but still uncertain scenario revolves around the timing/placement of upscale growth of an MCS across the central U.S. Damaging gusts are likely this convective cluster and the severe threat may linger well into the evening hours. Further south into the Ozarks, capping will likely limit convective coverage aside from an MCS moving into the region due to warm 700 mb temperatures from +11 to +14 C. However, the kinematic/buoyancy progged by model guidance would suggest at least an isolated risk for severe storms (hail/wind). ...Lower MS Valley... Isolated to scattered diurnal storms are forecast on Saturday. A moisture-rich airmass will destabilize as surface temperatures warm into the lower 90s. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg and PW 1.75-2.00 inches. Strongly veering profiles will result in modest deep-layer shear for multicellular storm organization. Isolated wet microbursts and severe hail will be possible with the stronger storms during the afternoon/early evening before this activity subsides. ...TX... Strong heating on the northern portion of the upper ridge centered over Mexico, will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer on the western fringe of richer low-level moisture across mainly central portions of TX. Isolated afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are possible and the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk. ..Smith.. 06/23/2023 Read more