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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z Minor changes to the ongoing forecast. Elevated conditions are possible in north-central New Mexico where there has been recent large fire activity. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 06/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will weaken over the Southwest through the forecast period as the shortwave trough of the previous day lifts away to the north and east. However, lingering flow aloft will likely support some enhancement of southwesterly surface winds through the afternoon hours across parts of western/central NM and eastern AZ. Poor overnight humidity recoveries will persist through the day as temperatures soar to 90-100 F through the afternoon. Minimum RH values falling to the single digits (3-7%) across much of western NM and eastern AZ will support very dry surface conditions. The 15-20 mph surface winds and dry air mass, coincident with receptive fuels over western/central NM and portions of AZ, will support several hours of elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Virgin Islands Agriculture Department asked all families and farmers in the territory to conserve water as drought gripped the area. St. Croix was in a D4 exceptional drought for the first time. Virgin Islands Daily News (St. Thomas, V.I.), June 23, 2023

Much of Wisconsin was in moderate drought. Pasture grass was not growing, so cattle were being fed. Corn has not received enough moisture to be able to grow, was already damaged and may produce tassels after reaching just three feet in height. Some Wisconsin crops were not even able to germinate for lack of moisture. Spectrum News 1 (Milwaukee, Wis.), June 22, 2023

Water customers in the Omaha metro were urged to irrigate their lawns on an odd-even schedule, depending on one's address. WOWT TV 6 (Omaha, Neb.), June 22, 2023

The warm, dry weather in North Dakota allowed grasshoppers to proliferate and devour vegetation faster than it grew. Your News Leader (Bismarck, N.D.), June 21, 2023

The unusually warm, dry weather in Minnesota has led to concerns about a potentially poor crop season if more rain does not fall. Corn in parts of northwest Minnesota was “pineappling,” and some soybeans were turning over their leaves as they endured stress from the lack of moisture. Soybeans were two weeks ahead of their typical growth. Alexandria Echo Press (Minn.), June 22, 2023

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... AMENDED FOR ENLARGING THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS OKLAHOMA ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast mainly this afternoon into the evening across parts of the central and southern High Plains, with a threat of large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches in diameter), severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two. ...Updated Discussion... Confidence has increased in a severe thunderstorm complex moving east-southeastward across western and southwestern OK this evening. Have enlarged the 15-percent and 5-percent severe wind probabilities to account for this. Have also introduced a 15-percent hail probability in southwest OK. ...Previous Discussion... The only changes to the previous convective outlook include the following: 1) Removed 15-percent wind probabilities over eastern NC into far southeast VA due mostly to convective overturning and storm weakening. 2) Added a small 15-percent wind probability over west-central OK and the far eastern part of the TX Panhandle. A long-lived thunderstorm complex will continue to move southeast this afternoon into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. The airmass to the southeast is moderately unstable with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate west-northwesterly flow will aid in some storm organization and widely scattered severe gusts are possible with this thunderstorm cluster this afternoon into west-central OK. 3) Reduced wind and tornado probabilities in wake of the south-southwesterly moving outflow boundary over northeast NM and adjacent parts of the TX Panhandle. Relatively cool/stable conditions will likely limit the wind/tornado risk over the northwest part of the TX Panhandle and far northeast NM. ..Smith.. 06/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023/ ...Northeast CO/Southeast WY/Southwest NE... Another active day of strong/severe storms appears likely for portions of the central High Plains. Water vapor imagery shows a band of moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft extending from the southwest states into the central/northern plains. Multiple weak perturbations are embedded in this flow, and will likely promote scattered thunderstorms off the high terrain by early afternoon. Boundary-layer moisture has lessened compared to yesterday, but remains high enough to yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Bulk shear will promote supercell storm structures capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. These storms will spread across northeast CO and southeast WY during the afternoon, with various morning CAM solutions suggesting propagation into southwest NE/northwest KS tonight. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM/Western TX Panhandle... An ongoing MCS is building southward into the OK/TX Panhandles. The evolution of this system is unclear, but it should result in an outflow boundary that extends westward into NM that aids re-development of storms later today. Supercell storms are expected, capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two. There is low confidence regarding the evening/overnight evolution of these storms. While several CAM solutions bring the activity southeastward into central TX overnight, the synoptic-scale low-level jet remains farther west, suggesting that scenario is unlikely or will be primarily non-severe. Therefore will maintain only a broad MRGL risk across much of TX. ...Northeast NC/Southeast VA... A linear MCS will track northeastward across parts of eastern NC and southeast VA today. Skies have cleared ahead of the line, where high dewpoints values will result in an area of moderate CAPE. Given the sufficiently strong low and mid level wind fields, have added a small SLGT for this area. Please see MCD #1205 for further details. Read more

MD 1212 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NM AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1212 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Areas affected...portions of northeastern NM and far southeastern CO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359... Valid 222201Z - 222330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes continue across WW359. DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing within the upslope flow regime across far northeastern NM and southeastern CO. As storms have matured this afternoon, a few supercell structures have emerged aided by 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Large hail will remain likely with the strongest storms given the supercell mode, elongated mid-level hodographs and moderate buoyancy. As these storms continue eastward, they will cross a remnant outflow boundary from earlier storms. Along and east of the boundary, strongly backed flow in the lowest 1-2km is likely supporting greater low-level shear and some additional ambient vorticity. A locally favorable corridor for a couple of tornadoes may evolve this afternoon/evening. ..Lyons.. 06/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37480480 37610409 37500357 36930303 36180310 35740308 35430341 35290397 35280445 35350469 35440484 35670495 36090512 37480480 Read more

A burn ban was implemented in the city of Hannibal due to excessively dry conditions and the forecast for more heat, but no rain. The ban will remain in effect until further notice. KHQA-TV ABC 7 (Quincy, Ill.), June 22, 2023

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..06/22/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC071-222240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAS ANIMAS NMC007-021-033-037-047-059-222240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX HARDING MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 359 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 221905Z - 230200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Northeast New Mexico * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon off the mountains, and along a weak boundary moving into the region from the northeast. The strongest storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Raton NM to 110 miles south southeast of Raton NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 358... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0358 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 358 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1211 ..WEINMAN..06/22/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-041-059-069-073-075-087-121-123- 222240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-222240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC001-007-015-021-031-222240- Read more

WW 358 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 221815Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 358 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Central Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Several intense thunderstorms including supercells will affect the watch area through the afternoon and evening, posing a risk of very large hail. A tornado or two may also occur later this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Torrington WY to 40 miles east southeast of Colorado Springs CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration urged residents and businesses to use water wisely due to the state’s dry conditions and the start of summer. Statewide, rainfall in New Jersey has been less than half of normal over the past 30 days. NJ.com (Newark, N.J.), June 22, 2023

Worsening drought conditions prompted Danville officials to enact a burn ban effective June 22. Cooking over charcoal or using gas grills was still permitted, but extra safety precautions should be taken. The public was urged to avoid using personal fireworks, due to the drought. Vermilion County First (Danville, ill.), June 22, 2023

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0360 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 360 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 222130Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 360 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and south central Oklahoma Extreme northwest Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of severe storms, including supercells, will spread east-southeastward through the evening across southwest Oklahoma and adjacent areas of south central Oklahoma and the Red River counties of northwest Texas. Occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter are expected through this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Altus OK to 55 miles southeast of Chickasha OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 358...WW 359... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Thompson Read more

The city of Geneva asked residents to adhere tightly to the watering schedule to conserve water for use during emergencies. Shaw Local (DeKalb, Ill.), June 22, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... Minor modification was made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks to bring the Elevated delineation to the Colorado/New Mexico border. Otherwise, the D2 Fire Outlook is on track with no further changes needed. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue to move northeastward through the Four Corners on Friday. This feature will be better timed with afternoon heating. At the surface, a stronger surface response in the High Plains will lead to a deeper lee trough in the central/southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Winds are expected to be stronger on Friday given the timing of the stronger mid-level flow. Winds of 20+ mph will be most likely in parts of eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Surrounding those areas, 15-20 mph will be more common. By the afternoon, RH will fall to 10-20%. There are signals within guidance that suggest single-digit RH is possible, however. Critical fire weather is expected for parts of western and central New Mexico where fuels are the driest within the region. Fuels in Arizona are either quite sparse or only modestly dry, limiting the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more