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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

MD 0398 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 94... FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of east TX into western/northern LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 94... Valid 091852Z - 092015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes may continue eastward into east Texas and western/northern Louisiana. A downstream watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...A small bowing cluster/MCV has recently developed across east-central TX along or perhaps just north of the surface boundary. Gradual airmass recovery is occurring downstream across east TX into western/northern LA, where surface temperatures have mostly warmed into the 70s amid persistent easterly near-surface flow. Weak MLCAPE coupled with strong deep-layer shear may be sufficient for continued organization to the small cluster as it moves eastward through the rest of the afternoon. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur to support truly surface-based convection, then damaging winds may be the primary severe threat. Sufficient low-level shear is also present along the boundary to support an isolated tornado threat, especially if any supercells can develop ahead of the ongoing cluster. Depending on convective trends, a downstream watch may be needed for parts of east TX into western/northern/LA. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32149585 32399522 32449274 32239212 31499206 31289244 31109442 31269615 31669589 32149585 Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-187-209-213- 225-281-287-289-293-309-313-331-349-395-453-491-092040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS HENDERSON HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0095 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0095 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northwest into central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091630Z - 091900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a threat for mainly large hail should gradually increase in coverage through early afternoon. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...16Z surface observations show a front draped across west into north-central TX, with a dryline extending south from the front towards the Big Bend vicinity. Occasional supercells have been occurring this morning to the north of the front across western north TX, with mainly a large hail threat but occasional measured severe wind gusts too. Recent radar and visible satellite trends indicate another thunderstorm has developed north of San Angelo near the front/dryline intersection. The airmass downstream appears favorable for supercells, with moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear likely to support updraft organization. As ascent associated with the upper low over the Southwest and attendant mid-level jet nosing into the southern High Plains continues to overspread the warm sector, most high-resolution guidance shows additional supercells developing through early afternoon. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper levels, scattered large to very large hail (1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) should be the main severe threat. Isolated strong to locally severe winds may also occur with any convective downdrafts. Trends will be monitored through the rest of the morning and into early afternoon for signs of additional robust thunderstorm development, which may prompt eventual watch issuance. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31800099 32100070 32490019 32839970 32889909 32639864 31919857 31279877 30739924 30420006 30680080 31800099 Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397 ..WEINMAN..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-187-209-213- 225-281-287-289-293-309-313-331-349-395-453-491-091940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS HENDERSON HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+), and widespread damaging winds, some of which may be particularly damaging. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move eastward across northern Texas during the day, becoming an open wave by 00Z as it nears the ArkLaTex. Ahead of the upper trough, cooling aloft will gradually push east toward the lower MS valley, with increasing midlevel southwesterlies of 60-70 kt. The upper wave will continue to lose amplitude through Thursday morning as it approaches the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will increase through the period to 60-70, aiding both shear and moisture advection. At the surface, a low is forecast to remain close to the Sabine Valley through late afternoon, but will become mobile during the evening and overnight as it translates across MS and into Middle TN by 12Z Thursday. During the day, a convectively enhanced front will extend northeastward from the Sabine low, into southeast AR/northwest MS. Widespread rain and storms are likely to be ongoing near this front early on Wednesday, with associated evolution playing critical roles downstream during the day. Overnight, a cold front will progress east into southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, with secondary tornado threat possible. ...LA...MS...AL...western FL Panhandle... Early on Wednesday, storms are forecast to be ongoing from much of LA into southeast AR and expanding into MS, in a zone of rich low-level moisture. This area will be quite unstable with 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE common south of any existing clusters or outflows, and deep-layer shear will favor long-lived severe storms. Both damaging bows and supercells will be possible area-wide, with a strong SRH gradient near/east of the MS River supporting rotation and tornado risk. Evolution may be complex due to early day storms, but any existing MCS may proceed throughout the day producing damaging winds. Supercells will be more likely during the afternoon, possibly on the southwestern flank of any existing outflow boundaries. Diurnal warming as well as continued moisture advection may also support a few supercells within a growing area of warm advection precipitation east/southeast of any boundaries. ...Southern AL into the FL Panhandle Overnight... Storms are likely to consolidate along the cold front overnight, from the Gulf of Mexico northward into southern AL and perhaps southwest GA. Shear will remain quite favorable for supercells and tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being possible antecedent convection and effects of outflow/air mass stabilization. Even so, it appears likely that a wedge of air mass recovery will develop just ahead of the line of storms, with periodic supercells and tornadoes possible. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible given effective SRH over 400 m2/s2. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+), and widespread damaging winds, some of which may be particularly damaging. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move eastward across northern Texas during the day, becoming an open wave by 00Z as it nears the ArkLaTex. Ahead of the upper trough, cooling aloft will gradually push east toward the lower MS valley, with increasing midlevel southwesterlies of 60-70 kt. The upper wave will continue to lose amplitude through Thursday morning as it approaches the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will increase through the period to 60-70, aiding both shear and moisture advection. At the surface, a low is forecast to remain close to the Sabine Valley through late afternoon, but will become mobile during the evening and overnight as it translates across MS and into Middle TN by 12Z Thursday. During the day, a convectively enhanced front will extend northeastward from the Sabine low, into southeast AR/northwest MS. Widespread rain and storms are likely to be ongoing near this front early on Wednesday, with associated evolution playing critical roles downstream during the day. Overnight, a cold front will progress east into southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, with secondary tornado threat possible. ...LA...MS...AL...western FL Panhandle... Early on Wednesday, storms are forecast to be ongoing from much of LA into southeast AR and expanding into MS, in a zone of rich low-level moisture. This area will be quite unstable with 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE common south of any existing clusters or outflows, and deep-layer shear will favor long-lived severe storms. Both damaging bows and supercells will be possible area-wide, with a strong SRH gradient near/east of the MS River supporting rotation and tornado risk. Evolution may be complex due to early day storms, but any existing MCS may proceed throughout the day producing damaging winds. Supercells will be more likely during the afternoon, possibly on the southwestern flank of any existing outflow boundaries. Diurnal warming as well as continued moisture advection may also support a few supercells within a growing area of warm advection precipitation east/southeast of any boundaries. ...Southern AL into the FL Panhandle Overnight... Storms are likely to consolidate along the cold front overnight, from the Gulf of Mexico northward into southern AL and perhaps southwest GA. Shear will remain quite favorable for supercells and tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being possible antecedent convection and effects of outflow/air mass stabilization. Even so, it appears likely that a wedge of air mass recovery will develop just ahead of the line of storms, with periodic supercells and tornadoes possible. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible given effective SRH over 400 m2/s2. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+), and widespread damaging winds, some of which may be particularly damaging. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move eastward across northern Texas during the day, becoming an open wave by 00Z as it nears the ArkLaTex. Ahead of the upper trough, cooling aloft will gradually push east toward the lower MS valley, with increasing midlevel southwesterlies of 60-70 kt. The upper wave will continue to lose amplitude through Thursday morning as it approaches the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will increase through the period to 60-70, aiding both shear and moisture advection. At the surface, a low is forecast to remain close to the Sabine Valley through late afternoon, but will become mobile during the evening and overnight as it translates across MS and into Middle TN by 12Z Thursday. During the day, a convectively enhanced front will extend northeastward from the Sabine low, into southeast AR/northwest MS. Widespread rain and storms are likely to be ongoing near this front early on Wednesday, with associated evolution playing critical roles downstream during the day. Overnight, a cold front will progress east into southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, with secondary tornado threat possible. ...LA...MS...AL...western FL Panhandle... Early on Wednesday, storms are forecast to be ongoing from much of LA into southeast AR and expanding into MS, in a zone of rich low-level moisture. This area will be quite unstable with 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE common south of any existing clusters or outflows, and deep-layer shear will favor long-lived severe storms. Both damaging bows and supercells will be possible area-wide, with a strong SRH gradient near/east of the MS River supporting rotation and tornado risk. Evolution may be complex due to early day storms, but any existing MCS may proceed throughout the day producing damaging winds. Supercells will be more likely during the afternoon, possibly on the southwestern flank of any existing outflow boundaries. Diurnal warming as well as continued moisture advection may also support a few supercells within a growing area of warm advection precipitation east/southeast of any boundaries. ...Southern AL into the FL Panhandle Overnight... Storms are likely to consolidate along the cold front overnight, from the Gulf of Mexico northward into southern AL and perhaps southwest GA. Shear will remain quite favorable for supercells and tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being possible antecedent convection and effects of outflow/air mass stabilization. Even so, it appears likely that a wedge of air mass recovery will develop just ahead of the line of storms, with periodic supercells and tornadoes possible. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible given effective SRH over 400 m2/s2. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+), and widespread damaging winds, some of which may be particularly damaging. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move eastward across northern Texas during the day, becoming an open wave by 00Z as it nears the ArkLaTex. Ahead of the upper trough, cooling aloft will gradually push east toward the lower MS valley, with increasing midlevel southwesterlies of 60-70 kt. The upper wave will continue to lose amplitude through Thursday morning as it approaches the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will increase through the period to 60-70, aiding both shear and moisture advection. At the surface, a low is forecast to remain close to the Sabine Valley through late afternoon, but will become mobile during the evening and overnight as it translates across MS and into Middle TN by 12Z Thursday. During the day, a convectively enhanced front will extend northeastward from the Sabine low, into southeast AR/northwest MS. Widespread rain and storms are likely to be ongoing near this front early on Wednesday, with associated evolution playing critical roles downstream during the day. Overnight, a cold front will progress east into southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, with secondary tornado threat possible. ...LA...MS...AL...western FL Panhandle... Early on Wednesday, storms are forecast to be ongoing from much of LA into southeast AR and expanding into MS, in a zone of rich low-level moisture. This area will be quite unstable with 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE common south of any existing clusters or outflows, and deep-layer shear will favor long-lived severe storms. Both damaging bows and supercells will be possible area-wide, with a strong SRH gradient near/east of the MS River supporting rotation and tornado risk. Evolution may be complex due to early day storms, but any existing MCS may proceed throughout the day producing damaging winds. Supercells will be more likely during the afternoon, possibly on the southwestern flank of any existing outflow boundaries. Diurnal warming as well as continued moisture advection may also support a few supercells within a growing area of warm advection precipitation east/southeast of any boundaries. ...Southern AL into the FL Panhandle Overnight... Storms are likely to consolidate along the cold front overnight, from the Gulf of Mexico northward into southern AL and perhaps southwest GA. Shear will remain quite favorable for supercells and tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being possible antecedent convection and effects of outflow/air mass stabilization. Even so, it appears likely that a wedge of air mass recovery will develop just ahead of the line of storms, with periodic supercells and tornadoes possible. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible given effective SRH over 400 m2/s2. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+), and widespread damaging winds, some of which may be particularly damaging. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move eastward across northern Texas during the day, becoming an open wave by 00Z as it nears the ArkLaTex. Ahead of the upper trough, cooling aloft will gradually push east toward the lower MS valley, with increasing midlevel southwesterlies of 60-70 kt. The upper wave will continue to lose amplitude through Thursday morning as it approaches the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will increase through the period to 60-70, aiding both shear and moisture advection. At the surface, a low is forecast to remain close to the Sabine Valley through late afternoon, but will become mobile during the evening and overnight as it translates across MS and into Middle TN by 12Z Thursday. During the day, a convectively enhanced front will extend northeastward from the Sabine low, into southeast AR/northwest MS. Widespread rain and storms are likely to be ongoing near this front early on Wednesday, with associated evolution playing critical roles downstream during the day. Overnight, a cold front will progress east into southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, with secondary tornado threat possible. ...LA...MS...AL...western FL Panhandle... Early on Wednesday, storms are forecast to be ongoing from much of LA into southeast AR and expanding into MS, in a zone of rich low-level moisture. This area will be quite unstable with 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE common south of any existing clusters or outflows, and deep-layer shear will favor long-lived severe storms. Both damaging bows and supercells will be possible area-wide, with a strong SRH gradient near/east of the MS River supporting rotation and tornado risk. Evolution may be complex due to early day storms, but any existing MCS may proceed throughout the day producing damaging winds. Supercells will be more likely during the afternoon, possibly on the southwestern flank of any existing outflow boundaries. Diurnal warming as well as continued moisture advection may also support a few supercells within a growing area of warm advection precipitation east/southeast of any boundaries. ...Southern AL into the FL Panhandle Overnight... Storms are likely to consolidate along the cold front overnight, from the Gulf of Mexico northward into southern AL and perhaps southwest GA. Shear will remain quite favorable for supercells and tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being possible antecedent convection and effects of outflow/air mass stabilization. Even so, it appears likely that a wedge of air mass recovery will develop just ahead of the line of storms, with periodic supercells and tornadoes possible. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible given effective SRH over 400 m2/s2. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 Read more