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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-187-209-213- 225-281-287-289-293-309-313-331-349-395-453-491-091740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS HENDERSON HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-187-209-213- 225-281-287-289-293-309-313-331-349-395-453-491-091740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS HENDERSON HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-187-209-213- 225-281-287-289-293-309-313-331-349-395-453-491-091640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS HENDERSON HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0395 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EAST TX INTO NORTHWESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0848 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/east TX into northwestern LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091348Z - 091545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A watch may be needed as the threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds gradually increases this morning. DISCUSSION...Warm advection associated with a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet, along with ascent attendant to the left exit region of a southwesterly mid/upper-level jet, is aiding convection across parts of central/east TX into northwestern LA. Some of this activity across central TX is occurring near a convectively reinforced outflow boundary, with a rich low-level airmass present along/south of this boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in central TX, even though daytime heating remains muted thus far, with lesser instability into east TX and northwestern LA. Still, strong deep-layer shear of 50+ kt will foster updraft organization and supercell potential. Large to very large hail will be a concern with these supercells as they spread east-northeastward this morning. An increasing potential for severe/damaging winds may be realized if a cluster forms along the outflow boundary/front. Sufficient low-level shear is also present for low-level updraft rotation and some tornado threat. Watch issuance may be needed if convection continues to increase in coverage and intensity across central TX. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30029806 30829766 31659640 31939477 32179397 32159343 31369333 30959394 29939603 29559685 29579786 30029806 Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RZZ TO 35 SE RIC TO 10 SSW NHK TO 10 NW DOV. ..LYONS..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-032240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-019-039-045-047-032240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NCC073-091-032240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GATES HERTFORD Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 9 13:54:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0394 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TX...TX BIG COUNTRY
Mesoscale Discussion 0394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Northwest TX...TX Big Country Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091247Z - 091445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across the Texas Big Country/northwest Texas this morning. DISCUSSION...Elevated supercell continues to move northeastward at around 30 mph. Based on recent forecast soundings, this storm is likely rooted around 800 mb, within an environment characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear. Cloud-bearing layer shear is likely around 70-80 kt. This strong shear will likely allow for this storm to persist as it moves northeastward over the next hour or two, despite relatively modest buoyancy. Large hail is the primary risk, but strong gusts are also possible, as evidenced by the recent gust of 60 kt in Garza County. Additional development is possible over the next few hours near and west/northwest of the surface low (currently in the Reagan County TX vicinity) as both warm-air advection and strengthening large-scale ascent bring parcels to their LFCs. This activity will likely be elevated throughout the morning, but strong shear will support the potential for large hail. Some stronger gusts could reach the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is uncertain, but trends are be monitored closely for potential watch issuance. ..Mosier/Smith.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31360038 31870104 33460101 34409938 33739841 32659853 31649917 31360038 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, large to very large hail, and severe gusts are forecast. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level low evident in water-vapor imagery near the NM/AZ/Mexico border this morning, will move east into northwest TX by daybreak Wednesday. Early morning analysis indicates an outflow-reinforced effective frontal zone is draped east to west from western LA into central TX, with the western portion of the boundary intersecting a surface low over the Permian Basin this morning. This surface low will gradually develop eastward into the TX Hill Country by early evening as the mid- to upper-level trough/low encroaches on the southern Great Plains. Little overall northward advancement is forecast in the outflow/effective frontal zone across central TX eastward into north-central LA during the period. ...TX to Lower MS Valley... A multi-scenario severe thunderstorm outlook is lending considerable uncertainty to this forecast. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may continue to develop and increase in coverage over northwest/west TX this morning as the leading edge of stronger upper forcing for ascent overspreads a capped but moist/unstable airmass near/north of the frontal zone (reference 12z Midland raob). As an 80-kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the upper trough, additional storm development will likely occur in a moist/warm conveyor across portions of central TX eastward into western LA. Models maintain the LLJ across east TX into southern AR most of the period. As a result, episodic bouts of deep convection should be noted across this region. Strong boundary-layer heating on the southwestern periphery of active convective clusters (most likely to occur over east-central TX and locales farther east) will yield a very unstable airmass by mid afternoon. The presence of surface dewpoints near 70 deg F beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will yield large buoyancy, and the risk for large to very large hail with the stronger updrafts. Large low-level hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) in the warm frontal zone will act to enhance both supercell development and a tornado risk with any supercells that can develop and move into this moist/strong low-level shear corridor. During the evening, large-scale height falls will spread east and it seems increasingly probable a squall line will develop. A few tornadoes and 60-80 mph gusts are possible with this potential linear MCS. ...Lower Great Lakes... Southern influence of a strong short-wave trough will glance northern OH into western NY. Boundary-layer heating is expected to contribute to modest instability by mid afternoon as surface temperatures warm through the mid 60s to near 70F. Ample deep-layer shear will exist for a few robust storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps isolated severe hail. Greatest risk will be with convection that develops along the front as it eases southeast into this region. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/09/2024 Read more