Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS...EASTERN LA...AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are probable beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. These will include potential for both many tornadoes, some of which should be strong (EF2-EF3 caliber), and widespread damaging wind swaths with embedded significant severe gusts. ...Synopsis... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over west TX at 12Z Wednesday. This shortwave impulse should begin to phase with a northern-stream wave digging into the Upper Midwest, yielding a full-latitude amplified trough near the MS Valley by 12Z Thursday. This will result in substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, commencing by Wednesday morning as a surface cyclone gradually deepens northeastward from east TX towards the Lower OH Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South... A swath of numerous to widespread severe storms appears increasingly likely on Wednesday morning to afternoon, highlighted within the level 3-4/ENH-MDT risks. A nocturnal tornado/wind threat should persist into Wednesday night across south AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. An MCS is expected to be ongoing from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys vicinity at 12Z Wednesday, with the southern portion potentially already producing severe wind and tornadoes. Guidance is more consistent with the indication of a plume of moderately steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity, emanating around the MCS from the northwest Gulf. A renewed surge of rich western Gulf moisture is progged to advect north-northeast just ahead of the morning activity across LA, yielding moderate buoyancy across convection-free areas of LA into south MS. Convective intensity should diurnally increase through late morning/midday within already strong low-/deep-layer shear. The initial thermodynamic environment coupled with further strengthening of tropospheric wind fields should yield potential for an intense QLCS spreading east-northeast into the afternoon. Embedded supercells, with a possibility for semi-discrete ones just ahead of the line along its southern flank, in addition to small-scale bowing segments will be conducive to tornadoes and damaging wind swaths. Primary uncertainty is just how far north-northeast this severe MCS will extend, as both weaker mid and low-level lapse rates with northeast extent and deep convection regenerating southwestward towards the larger buoyancy plume, may yield a relatively pronounced northern cutoff to the more widespread severe threat. A tornado and severe wind threat should linger into Wednesday evening/night, at least along the northeast Gulf coast region, with regenerative offshore supercells moving inland. Guidance is consistent in suggesting further increases of low-level shear/hodograph curvature into the FL Panhandle vicinity through 12Z Thursday, supporting a nocturnal strong tornado risk. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ark-La-Miss to the TN Valley... A separate area of severe storms, primarily in the form of large hail initially, should develop along a portion of the Red River Valley near the Ark-La-Tex. This activity will be supported by a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates near the cold-core region of the mid-level low, and the northwest periphery of the residual Gulf low-level moisture plume that will likely be modified by the extensive MCS near the central Gulf Coast. Guidance has shown more variability with timing the east and eventual northeast pivot of the mid-level low on Wednesday night, yielding uncertainty in how far northeast at least a low-probability severe threat will extend. There will be an attempt at overnight airmass recovery northward from the central Gulf Coast to the TN Valley in the wake of the large early-day MCS. Low-level shear profiles will be supportive of rotating storms into early Wednesday, with lower-probability tornado/wind threats. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS...EASTERN LA...AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are probable beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. These will include potential for both many tornadoes, some of which should be strong (EF2-EF3 caliber), and widespread damaging wind swaths with embedded significant severe gusts. ...Synopsis... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over west TX at 12Z Wednesday. This shortwave impulse should begin to phase with a northern-stream wave digging into the Upper Midwest, yielding a full-latitude amplified trough near the MS Valley by 12Z Thursday. This will result in substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, commencing by Wednesday morning as a surface cyclone gradually deepens northeastward from east TX towards the Lower OH Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South... A swath of numerous to widespread severe storms appears increasingly likely on Wednesday morning to afternoon, highlighted within the level 3-4/ENH-MDT risks. A nocturnal tornado/wind threat should persist into Wednesday night across south AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. An MCS is expected to be ongoing from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys vicinity at 12Z Wednesday, with the southern portion potentially already producing severe wind and tornadoes. Guidance is more consistent with the indication of a plume of moderately steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity, emanating around the MCS from the northwest Gulf. A renewed surge of rich western Gulf moisture is progged to advect north-northeast just ahead of the morning activity across LA, yielding moderate buoyancy across convection-free areas of LA into south MS. Convective intensity should diurnally increase through late morning/midday within already strong low-/deep-layer shear. The initial thermodynamic environment coupled with further strengthening of tropospheric wind fields should yield potential for an intense QLCS spreading east-northeast into the afternoon. Embedded supercells, with a possibility for semi-discrete ones just ahead of the line along its southern flank, in addition to small-scale bowing segments will be conducive to tornadoes and damaging wind swaths. Primary uncertainty is just how far north-northeast this severe MCS will extend, as both weaker mid and low-level lapse rates with northeast extent and deep convection regenerating southwestward towards the larger buoyancy plume, may yield a relatively pronounced northern cutoff to the more widespread severe threat. A tornado and severe wind threat should linger into Wednesday evening/night, at least along the northeast Gulf coast region, with regenerative offshore supercells moving inland. Guidance is consistent in suggesting further increases of low-level shear/hodograph curvature into the FL Panhandle vicinity through 12Z Thursday, supporting a nocturnal strong tornado risk. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ark-La-Miss to the TN Valley... A separate area of severe storms, primarily in the form of large hail initially, should develop along a portion of the Red River Valley near the Ark-La-Tex. This activity will be supported by a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates near the cold-core region of the mid-level low, and the northwest periphery of the residual Gulf low-level moisture plume that will likely be modified by the extensive MCS near the central Gulf Coast. Guidance has shown more variability with timing the east and eventual northeast pivot of the mid-level low on Wednesday night, yielding uncertainty in how far northeast at least a low-probability severe threat will extend. There will be an attempt at overnight airmass recovery northward from the central Gulf Coast to the TN Valley in the wake of the large early-day MCS. Low-level shear profiles will be supportive of rotating storms into early Wednesday, with lower-probability tornado/wind threats. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS...EASTERN LA...AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are probable beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. These will include potential for both many tornadoes, some of which should be strong (EF2-EF3 caliber), and widespread damaging wind swaths with embedded significant severe gusts. ...Synopsis... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over west TX at 12Z Wednesday. This shortwave impulse should begin to phase with a northern-stream wave digging into the Upper Midwest, yielding a full-latitude amplified trough near the MS Valley by 12Z Thursday. This will result in substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, commencing by Wednesday morning as a surface cyclone gradually deepens northeastward from east TX towards the Lower OH Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South... A swath of numerous to widespread severe storms appears increasingly likely on Wednesday morning to afternoon, highlighted within the level 3-4/ENH-MDT risks. A nocturnal tornado/wind threat should persist into Wednesday night across south AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. An MCS is expected to be ongoing from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys vicinity at 12Z Wednesday, with the southern portion potentially already producing severe wind and tornadoes. Guidance is more consistent with the indication of a plume of moderately steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity, emanating around the MCS from the northwest Gulf. A renewed surge of rich western Gulf moisture is progged to advect north-northeast just ahead of the morning activity across LA, yielding moderate buoyancy across convection-free areas of LA into south MS. Convective intensity should diurnally increase through late morning/midday within already strong low-/deep-layer shear. The initial thermodynamic environment coupled with further strengthening of tropospheric wind fields should yield potential for an intense QLCS spreading east-northeast into the afternoon. Embedded supercells, with a possibility for semi-discrete ones just ahead of the line along its southern flank, in addition to small-scale bowing segments will be conducive to tornadoes and damaging wind swaths. Primary uncertainty is just how far north-northeast this severe MCS will extend, as both weaker mid and low-level lapse rates with northeast extent and deep convection regenerating southwestward towards the larger buoyancy plume, may yield a relatively pronounced northern cutoff to the more widespread severe threat. A tornado and severe wind threat should linger into Wednesday evening/night, at least along the northeast Gulf coast region, with regenerative offshore supercells moving inland. Guidance is consistent in suggesting further increases of low-level shear/hodograph curvature into the FL Panhandle vicinity through 12Z Thursday, supporting a nocturnal strong tornado risk. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ark-La-Miss to the TN Valley... A separate area of severe storms, primarily in the form of large hail initially, should develop along a portion of the Red River Valley near the Ark-La-Tex. This activity will be supported by a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates near the cold-core region of the mid-level low, and the northwest periphery of the residual Gulf low-level moisture plume that will likely be modified by the extensive MCS near the central Gulf Coast. Guidance has shown more variability with timing the east and eventual northeast pivot of the mid-level low on Wednesday night, yielding uncertainty in how far northeast at least a low-probability severe threat will extend. There will be an attempt at overnight airmass recovery northward from the central Gulf Coast to the TN Valley in the wake of the large early-day MCS. Low-level shear profiles will be supportive of rotating storms into early Wednesday, with lower-probability tornado/wind threats. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS...EASTERN LA...AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are probable beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. These will include potential for both many tornadoes, some of which should be strong (EF2-EF3 caliber), and widespread damaging wind swaths with embedded significant severe gusts. ...Synopsis... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over west TX at 12Z Wednesday. This shortwave impulse should begin to phase with a northern-stream wave digging into the Upper Midwest, yielding a full-latitude amplified trough near the MS Valley by 12Z Thursday. This will result in substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, commencing by Wednesday morning as a surface cyclone gradually deepens northeastward from east TX towards the Lower OH Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South... A swath of numerous to widespread severe storms appears increasingly likely on Wednesday morning to afternoon, highlighted within the level 3-4/ENH-MDT risks. A nocturnal tornado/wind threat should persist into Wednesday night across south AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. An MCS is expected to be ongoing from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys vicinity at 12Z Wednesday, with the southern portion potentially already producing severe wind and tornadoes. Guidance is more consistent with the indication of a plume of moderately steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity, emanating around the MCS from the northwest Gulf. A renewed surge of rich western Gulf moisture is progged to advect north-northeast just ahead of the morning activity across LA, yielding moderate buoyancy across convection-free areas of LA into south MS. Convective intensity should diurnally increase through late morning/midday within already strong low-/deep-layer shear. The initial thermodynamic environment coupled with further strengthening of tropospheric wind fields should yield potential for an intense QLCS spreading east-northeast into the afternoon. Embedded supercells, with a possibility for semi-discrete ones just ahead of the line along its southern flank, in addition to small-scale bowing segments will be conducive to tornadoes and damaging wind swaths. Primary uncertainty is just how far north-northeast this severe MCS will extend, as both weaker mid and low-level lapse rates with northeast extent and deep convection regenerating southwestward towards the larger buoyancy plume, may yield a relatively pronounced northern cutoff to the more widespread severe threat. A tornado and severe wind threat should linger into Wednesday evening/night, at least along the northeast Gulf coast region, with regenerative offshore supercells moving inland. Guidance is consistent in suggesting further increases of low-level shear/hodograph curvature into the FL Panhandle vicinity through 12Z Thursday, supporting a nocturnal strong tornado risk. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ark-La-Miss to the TN Valley... A separate area of severe storms, primarily in the form of large hail initially, should develop along a portion of the Red River Valley near the Ark-La-Tex. This activity will be supported by a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates near the cold-core region of the mid-level low, and the northwest periphery of the residual Gulf low-level moisture plume that will likely be modified by the extensive MCS near the central Gulf Coast. Guidance has shown more variability with timing the east and eventual northeast pivot of the mid-level low on Wednesday night, yielding uncertainty in how far northeast at least a low-probability severe threat will extend. There will be an attempt at overnight airmass recovery northward from the central Gulf Coast to the TN Valley in the wake of the large early-day MCS. Low-level shear profiles will be supportive of rotating storms into early Wednesday, with lower-probability tornado/wind threats. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS...EASTERN LA...AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are probable beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. These will include potential for both many tornadoes, some of which should be strong (EF2-EF3 caliber), and widespread damaging wind swaths with embedded significant severe gusts. ...Synopsis... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over west TX at 12Z Wednesday. This shortwave impulse should begin to phase with a northern-stream wave digging into the Upper Midwest, yielding a full-latitude amplified trough near the MS Valley by 12Z Thursday. This will result in substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, commencing by Wednesday morning as a surface cyclone gradually deepens northeastward from east TX towards the Lower OH Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South... A swath of numerous to widespread severe storms appears increasingly likely on Wednesday morning to afternoon, highlighted within the level 3-4/ENH-MDT risks. A nocturnal tornado/wind threat should persist into Wednesday night across south AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. An MCS is expected to be ongoing from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys vicinity at 12Z Wednesday, with the southern portion potentially already producing severe wind and tornadoes. Guidance is more consistent with the indication of a plume of moderately steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity, emanating around the MCS from the northwest Gulf. A renewed surge of rich western Gulf moisture is progged to advect north-northeast just ahead of the morning activity across LA, yielding moderate buoyancy across convection-free areas of LA into south MS. Convective intensity should diurnally increase through late morning/midday within already strong low-/deep-layer shear. The initial thermodynamic environment coupled with further strengthening of tropospheric wind fields should yield potential for an intense QLCS spreading east-northeast into the afternoon. Embedded supercells, with a possibility for semi-discrete ones just ahead of the line along its southern flank, in addition to small-scale bowing segments will be conducive to tornadoes and damaging wind swaths. Primary uncertainty is just how far north-northeast this severe MCS will extend, as both weaker mid and low-level lapse rates with northeast extent and deep convection regenerating southwestward towards the larger buoyancy plume, may yield a relatively pronounced northern cutoff to the more widespread severe threat. A tornado and severe wind threat should linger into Wednesday evening/night, at least along the northeast Gulf coast region, with regenerative offshore supercells moving inland. Guidance is consistent in suggesting further increases of low-level shear/hodograph curvature into the FL Panhandle vicinity through 12Z Thursday, supporting a nocturnal strong tornado risk. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ark-La-Miss to the TN Valley... A separate area of severe storms, primarily in the form of large hail initially, should develop along a portion of the Red River Valley near the Ark-La-Tex. This activity will be supported by a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates near the cold-core region of the mid-level low, and the northwest periphery of the residual Gulf low-level moisture plume that will likely be modified by the extensive MCS near the central Gulf Coast. Guidance has shown more variability with timing the east and eventual northeast pivot of the mid-level low on Wednesday night, yielding uncertainty in how far northeast at least a low-probability severe threat will extend. There will be an attempt at overnight airmass recovery northward from the central Gulf Coast to the TN Valley in the wake of the large early-day MCS. Low-level shear profiles will be supportive of rotating storms into early Wednesday, with lower-probability tornado/wind threats. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS...EASTERN LA...AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are probable beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. These will include potential for both many tornadoes, some of which should be strong (EF2-EF3 caliber), and widespread damaging wind swaths with embedded significant severe gusts. ...Synopsis... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over west TX at 12Z Wednesday. This shortwave impulse should begin to phase with a northern-stream wave digging into the Upper Midwest, yielding a full-latitude amplified trough near the MS Valley by 12Z Thursday. This will result in substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, commencing by Wednesday morning as a surface cyclone gradually deepens northeastward from east TX towards the Lower OH Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South... A swath of numerous to widespread severe storms appears increasingly likely on Wednesday morning to afternoon, highlighted within the level 3-4/ENH-MDT risks. A nocturnal tornado/wind threat should persist into Wednesday night across south AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. An MCS is expected to be ongoing from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys vicinity at 12Z Wednesday, with the southern portion potentially already producing severe wind and tornadoes. Guidance is more consistent with the indication of a plume of moderately steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity, emanating around the MCS from the northwest Gulf. A renewed surge of rich western Gulf moisture is progged to advect north-northeast just ahead of the morning activity across LA, yielding moderate buoyancy across convection-free areas of LA into south MS. Convective intensity should diurnally increase through late morning/midday within already strong low-/deep-layer shear. The initial thermodynamic environment coupled with further strengthening of tropospheric wind fields should yield potential for an intense QLCS spreading east-northeast into the afternoon. Embedded supercells, with a possibility for semi-discrete ones just ahead of the line along its southern flank, in addition to small-scale bowing segments will be conducive to tornadoes and damaging wind swaths. Primary uncertainty is just how far north-northeast this severe MCS will extend, as both weaker mid and low-level lapse rates with northeast extent and deep convection regenerating southwestward towards the larger buoyancy plume, may yield a relatively pronounced northern cutoff to the more widespread severe threat. A tornado and severe wind threat should linger into Wednesday evening/night, at least along the northeast Gulf coast region, with regenerative offshore supercells moving inland. Guidance is consistent in suggesting further increases of low-level shear/hodograph curvature into the FL Panhandle vicinity through 12Z Thursday, supporting a nocturnal strong tornado risk. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ark-La-Miss to the TN Valley... A separate area of severe storms, primarily in the form of large hail initially, should develop along a portion of the Red River Valley near the Ark-La-Tex. This activity will be supported by a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates near the cold-core region of the mid-level low, and the northwest periphery of the residual Gulf low-level moisture plume that will likely be modified by the extensive MCS near the central Gulf Coast. Guidance has shown more variability with timing the east and eventual northeast pivot of the mid-level low on Wednesday night, yielding uncertainty in how far northeast at least a low-probability severe threat will extend. There will be an attempt at overnight airmass recovery northward from the central Gulf Coast to the TN Valley in the wake of the large early-day MCS. Low-level shear profiles will be supportive of rotating storms into early Wednesday, with lower-probability tornado/wind threats. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS...EASTERN LA...AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are probable beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. These will include potential for both many tornadoes, some of which should be strong (EF2-EF3 caliber), and widespread damaging wind swaths with embedded significant severe gusts. ...Synopsis... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over west TX at 12Z Wednesday. This shortwave impulse should begin to phase with a northern-stream wave digging into the Upper Midwest, yielding a full-latitude amplified trough near the MS Valley by 12Z Thursday. This will result in substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, commencing by Wednesday morning as a surface cyclone gradually deepens northeastward from east TX towards the Lower OH Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South... A swath of numerous to widespread severe storms appears increasingly likely on Wednesday morning to afternoon, highlighted within the level 3-4/ENH-MDT risks. A nocturnal tornado/wind threat should persist into Wednesday night across south AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. An MCS is expected to be ongoing from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys vicinity at 12Z Wednesday, with the southern portion potentially already producing severe wind and tornadoes. Guidance is more consistent with the indication of a plume of moderately steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity, emanating around the MCS from the northwest Gulf. A renewed surge of rich western Gulf moisture is progged to advect north-northeast just ahead of the morning activity across LA, yielding moderate buoyancy across convection-free areas of LA into south MS. Convective intensity should diurnally increase through late morning/midday within already strong low-/deep-layer shear. The initial thermodynamic environment coupled with further strengthening of tropospheric wind fields should yield potential for an intense QLCS spreading east-northeast into the afternoon. Embedded supercells, with a possibility for semi-discrete ones just ahead of the line along its southern flank, in addition to small-scale bowing segments will be conducive to tornadoes and damaging wind swaths. Primary uncertainty is just how far north-northeast this severe MCS will extend, as both weaker mid and low-level lapse rates with northeast extent and deep convection regenerating southwestward towards the larger buoyancy plume, may yield a relatively pronounced northern cutoff to the more widespread severe threat. A tornado and severe wind threat should linger into Wednesday evening/night, at least along the northeast Gulf coast region, with regenerative offshore supercells moving inland. Guidance is consistent in suggesting further increases of low-level shear/hodograph curvature into the FL Panhandle vicinity through 12Z Thursday, supporting a nocturnal strong tornado risk. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ark-La-Miss to the TN Valley... A separate area of severe storms, primarily in the form of large hail initially, should develop along a portion of the Red River Valley near the Ark-La-Tex. This activity will be supported by a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates near the cold-core region of the mid-level low, and the northwest periphery of the residual Gulf low-level moisture plume that will likely be modified by the extensive MCS near the central Gulf Coast. Guidance has shown more variability with timing the east and eventual northeast pivot of the mid-level low on Wednesday night, yielding uncertainty in how far northeast at least a low-probability severe threat will extend. There will be an attempt at overnight airmass recovery northward from the central Gulf Coast to the TN Valley in the wake of the large early-day MCS. Low-level shear profiles will be supportive of rotating storms into early Wednesday, with lower-probability tornado/wind threats. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS...EASTERN LA...AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are probable beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. These will include potential for both many tornadoes, some of which should be strong (EF2-EF3 caliber), and widespread damaging wind swaths with embedded significant severe gusts. ...Synopsis... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over west TX at 12Z Wednesday. This shortwave impulse should begin to phase with a northern-stream wave digging into the Upper Midwest, yielding a full-latitude amplified trough near the MS Valley by 12Z Thursday. This will result in substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, commencing by Wednesday morning as a surface cyclone gradually deepens northeastward from east TX towards the Lower OH Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South... A swath of numerous to widespread severe storms appears increasingly likely on Wednesday morning to afternoon, highlighted within the level 3-4/ENH-MDT risks. A nocturnal tornado/wind threat should persist into Wednesday night across south AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. An MCS is expected to be ongoing from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys vicinity at 12Z Wednesday, with the southern portion potentially already producing severe wind and tornadoes. Guidance is more consistent with the indication of a plume of moderately steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity, emanating around the MCS from the northwest Gulf. A renewed surge of rich western Gulf moisture is progged to advect north-northeast just ahead of the morning activity across LA, yielding moderate buoyancy across convection-free areas of LA into south MS. Convective intensity should diurnally increase through late morning/midday within already strong low-/deep-layer shear. The initial thermodynamic environment coupled with further strengthening of tropospheric wind fields should yield potential for an intense QLCS spreading east-northeast into the afternoon. Embedded supercells, with a possibility for semi-discrete ones just ahead of the line along its southern flank, in addition to small-scale bowing segments will be conducive to tornadoes and damaging wind swaths. Primary uncertainty is just how far north-northeast this severe MCS will extend, as both weaker mid and low-level lapse rates with northeast extent and deep convection regenerating southwestward towards the larger buoyancy plume, may yield a relatively pronounced northern cutoff to the more widespread severe threat. A tornado and severe wind threat should linger into Wednesday evening/night, at least along the northeast Gulf coast region, with regenerative offshore supercells moving inland. Guidance is consistent in suggesting further increases of low-level shear/hodograph curvature into the FL Panhandle vicinity through 12Z Thursday, supporting a nocturnal strong tornado risk. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ark-La-Miss to the TN Valley... A separate area of severe storms, primarily in the form of large hail initially, should develop along a portion of the Red River Valley near the Ark-La-Tex. This activity will be supported by a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates near the cold-core region of the mid-level low, and the northwest periphery of the residual Gulf low-level moisture plume that will likely be modified by the extensive MCS near the central Gulf Coast. Guidance has shown more variability with timing the east and eventual northeast pivot of the mid-level low on Wednesday night, yielding uncertainty in how far northeast at least a low-probability severe threat will extend. There will be an attempt at overnight airmass recovery northward from the central Gulf Coast to the TN Valley in the wake of the large early-day MCS. Low-level shear profiles will be supportive of rotating storms into early Wednesday, with lower-probability tornado/wind threats. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS...EASTERN LA...AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are probable beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. These will include potential for both many tornadoes, some of which should be strong (EF2-EF3 caliber), and widespread damaging wind swaths with embedded significant severe gusts. ...Synopsis... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over west TX at 12Z Wednesday. This shortwave impulse should begin to phase with a northern-stream wave digging into the Upper Midwest, yielding a full-latitude amplified trough near the MS Valley by 12Z Thursday. This will result in substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, commencing by Wednesday morning as a surface cyclone gradually deepens northeastward from east TX towards the Lower OH Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South... A swath of numerous to widespread severe storms appears increasingly likely on Wednesday morning to afternoon, highlighted within the level 3-4/ENH-MDT risks. A nocturnal tornado/wind threat should persist into Wednesday night across south AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. An MCS is expected to be ongoing from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys vicinity at 12Z Wednesday, with the southern portion potentially already producing severe wind and tornadoes. Guidance is more consistent with the indication of a plume of moderately steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity, emanating around the MCS from the northwest Gulf. A renewed surge of rich western Gulf moisture is progged to advect north-northeast just ahead of the morning activity across LA, yielding moderate buoyancy across convection-free areas of LA into south MS. Convective intensity should diurnally increase through late morning/midday within already strong low-/deep-layer shear. The initial thermodynamic environment coupled with further strengthening of tropospheric wind fields should yield potential for an intense QLCS spreading east-northeast into the afternoon. Embedded supercells, with a possibility for semi-discrete ones just ahead of the line along its southern flank, in addition to small-scale bowing segments will be conducive to tornadoes and damaging wind swaths. Primary uncertainty is just how far north-northeast this severe MCS will extend, as both weaker mid and low-level lapse rates with northeast extent and deep convection regenerating southwestward towards the larger buoyancy plume, may yield a relatively pronounced northern cutoff to the more widespread severe threat. A tornado and severe wind threat should linger into Wednesday evening/night, at least along the northeast Gulf coast region, with regenerative offshore supercells moving inland. Guidance is consistent in suggesting further increases of low-level shear/hodograph curvature into the FL Panhandle vicinity through 12Z Thursday, supporting a nocturnal strong tornado risk. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ark-La-Miss to the TN Valley... A separate area of severe storms, primarily in the form of large hail initially, should develop along a portion of the Red River Valley near the Ark-La-Tex. This activity will be supported by a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates near the cold-core region of the mid-level low, and the northwest periphery of the residual Gulf low-level moisture plume that will likely be modified by the extensive MCS near the central Gulf Coast. Guidance has shown more variability with timing the east and eventual northeast pivot of the mid-level low on Wednesday night, yielding uncertainty in how far northeast at least a low-probability severe threat will extend. There will be an attempt at overnight airmass recovery northward from the central Gulf Coast to the TN Valley in the wake of the large early-day MCS. Low-level shear profiles will be supportive of rotating storms into early Wednesday, with lower-probability tornado/wind threats. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS...EASTERN LA...AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are probable beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. These will include potential for both many tornadoes, some of which should be strong (EF2-EF3 caliber), and widespread damaging wind swaths with embedded significant severe gusts. ...Synopsis... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over west TX at 12Z Wednesday. This shortwave impulse should begin to phase with a northern-stream wave digging into the Upper Midwest, yielding a full-latitude amplified trough near the MS Valley by 12Z Thursday. This will result in substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, commencing by Wednesday morning as a surface cyclone gradually deepens northeastward from east TX towards the Lower OH Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South... A swath of numerous to widespread severe storms appears increasingly likely on Wednesday morning to afternoon, highlighted within the level 3-4/ENH-MDT risks. A nocturnal tornado/wind threat should persist into Wednesday night across south AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. An MCS is expected to be ongoing from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys vicinity at 12Z Wednesday, with the southern portion potentially already producing severe wind and tornadoes. Guidance is more consistent with the indication of a plume of moderately steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity, emanating around the MCS from the northwest Gulf. A renewed surge of rich western Gulf moisture is progged to advect north-northeast just ahead of the morning activity across LA, yielding moderate buoyancy across convection-free areas of LA into south MS. Convective intensity should diurnally increase through late morning/midday within already strong low-/deep-layer shear. The initial thermodynamic environment coupled with further strengthening of tropospheric wind fields should yield potential for an intense QLCS spreading east-northeast into the afternoon. Embedded supercells, with a possibility for semi-discrete ones just ahead of the line along its southern flank, in addition to small-scale bowing segments will be conducive to tornadoes and damaging wind swaths. Primary uncertainty is just how far north-northeast this severe MCS will extend, as both weaker mid and low-level lapse rates with northeast extent and deep convection regenerating southwestward towards the larger buoyancy plume, may yield a relatively pronounced northern cutoff to the more widespread severe threat. A tornado and severe wind threat should linger into Wednesday evening/night, at least along the northeast Gulf coast region, with regenerative offshore supercells moving inland. Guidance is consistent in suggesting further increases of low-level shear/hodograph curvature into the FL Panhandle vicinity through 12Z Thursday, supporting a nocturnal strong tornado risk. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ark-La-Miss to the TN Valley... A separate area of severe storms, primarily in the form of large hail initially, should develop along a portion of the Red River Valley near the Ark-La-Tex. This activity will be supported by a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates near the cold-core region of the mid-level low, and the northwest periphery of the residual Gulf low-level moisture plume that will likely be modified by the extensive MCS near the central Gulf Coast. Guidance has shown more variability with timing the east and eventual northeast pivot of the mid-level low on Wednesday night, yielding uncertainty in how far northeast at least a low-probability severe threat will extend. There will be an attempt at overnight airmass recovery northward from the central Gulf Coast to the TN Valley in the wake of the large early-day MCS. Low-level shear profiles will be supportive of rotating storms into early Wednesday, with lower-probability tornado/wind threats. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast today across much of Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are are expected. ...TX to Lower MS Valley... Upper low has sagged to near the AZ/international border early this morning. As a 90+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of this feature, the low should then eject east early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests the upper low will advance into far west TX by 18z as the speed max approaches the Big Bend. Left-exit region will encourage renewed deep convection across southeast NM into the TX South Plains early as very steep mid-level lapse rates, and large-scale ascent, aid buoyancy within a strongly diffluent high-level flow regime. NAM forecast soundings at the start of the period exhibit substantial MUCAPE across this region. 1km lifted parcel will yield roughly 2500 J/kg. Very large hail may accompany any supercells that evolve with this elevated activity. Downstream, strongest, and most focused, LLJ will extend across the northwestern Gulf Basin into the Arklatex region. Considerable amount of convection has developed along the Red River, across southern AR/northern LA into central MS early this morning. It seems reasonable that the LLJ will maintain a complex corridor of deep convection across this region, driven in large part by warm advection. Models maintain LLJ across east TX into southern AR most of the period. As a result, episodic bouts of deep convection should be noted across this region. While warm advection will prove instrumental in convection today, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across northeast Mexico into the TX side of the Rio Grande Valley. Surface parcels should easily reach their convective temperatures and isolated thunderstorms may develop near the dry line. During the evening, large-scale height falls will spread east and convection may experience upscale growth within a strongly sheared environment. Multiple convective scenarios, along with the influence of ongoing storms, will likely result in a complex evolution, including isolated supercells, clusters, and possible line segments late. Strong shear favors the potential for a few strong tornadoes, along with very large hail. ...Lower Great Lakes... Southern influence of a strong short-wave trough will glance northern OH into western NY. Boundary-layer heating is expected to contribute to modest instability by mid afternoon as surface temperatures warm through the mid 60s to near 70F. Ample deep-layer shear will exist for a few robust storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps isolated severe hail. Greatest risk will be with convection that develops along the front as it eases southeast into this region. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast today across much of Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are are expected. ...TX to Lower MS Valley... Upper low has sagged to near the AZ/international border early this morning. As a 90+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of this feature, the low should then eject east early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests the upper low will advance into far west TX by 18z as the speed max approaches the Big Bend. Left-exit region will encourage renewed deep convection across southeast NM into the TX South Plains early as very steep mid-level lapse rates, and large-scale ascent, aid buoyancy within a strongly diffluent high-level flow regime. NAM forecast soundings at the start of the period exhibit substantial MUCAPE across this region. 1km lifted parcel will yield roughly 2500 J/kg. Very large hail may accompany any supercells that evolve with this elevated activity. Downstream, strongest, and most focused, LLJ will extend across the northwestern Gulf Basin into the Arklatex region. Considerable amount of convection has developed along the Red River, across southern AR/northern LA into central MS early this morning. It seems reasonable that the LLJ will maintain a complex corridor of deep convection across this region, driven in large part by warm advection. Models maintain LLJ across east TX into southern AR most of the period. As a result, episodic bouts of deep convection should be noted across this region. While warm advection will prove instrumental in convection today, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across northeast Mexico into the TX side of the Rio Grande Valley. Surface parcels should easily reach their convective temperatures and isolated thunderstorms may develop near the dry line. During the evening, large-scale height falls will spread east and convection may experience upscale growth within a strongly sheared environment. Multiple convective scenarios, along with the influence of ongoing storms, will likely result in a complex evolution, including isolated supercells, clusters, and possible line segments late. Strong shear favors the potential for a few strong tornadoes, along with very large hail. ...Lower Great Lakes... Southern influence of a strong short-wave trough will glance northern OH into western NY. Boundary-layer heating is expected to contribute to modest instability by mid afternoon as surface temperatures warm through the mid 60s to near 70F. Ample deep-layer shear will exist for a few robust storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps isolated severe hail. Greatest risk will be with convection that develops along the front as it eases southeast into this region. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast today across much of Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are are expected. ...TX to Lower MS Valley... Upper low has sagged to near the AZ/international border early this morning. As a 90+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of this feature, the low should then eject east early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests the upper low will advance into far west TX by 18z as the speed max approaches the Big Bend. Left-exit region will encourage renewed deep convection across southeast NM into the TX South Plains early as very steep mid-level lapse rates, and large-scale ascent, aid buoyancy within a strongly diffluent high-level flow regime. NAM forecast soundings at the start of the period exhibit substantial MUCAPE across this region. 1km lifted parcel will yield roughly 2500 J/kg. Very large hail may accompany any supercells that evolve with this elevated activity. Downstream, strongest, and most focused, LLJ will extend across the northwestern Gulf Basin into the Arklatex region. Considerable amount of convection has developed along the Red River, across southern AR/northern LA into central MS early this morning. It seems reasonable that the LLJ will maintain a complex corridor of deep convection across this region, driven in large part by warm advection. Models maintain LLJ across east TX into southern AR most of the period. As a result, episodic bouts of deep convection should be noted across this region. While warm advection will prove instrumental in convection today, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across northeast Mexico into the TX side of the Rio Grande Valley. Surface parcels should easily reach their convective temperatures and isolated thunderstorms may develop near the dry line. During the evening, large-scale height falls will spread east and convection may experience upscale growth within a strongly sheared environment. Multiple convective scenarios, along with the influence of ongoing storms, will likely result in a complex evolution, including isolated supercells, clusters, and possible line segments late. Strong shear favors the potential for a few strong tornadoes, along with very large hail. ...Lower Great Lakes... Southern influence of a strong short-wave trough will glance northern OH into western NY. Boundary-layer heating is expected to contribute to modest instability by mid afternoon as surface temperatures warm through the mid 60s to near 70F. Ample deep-layer shear will exist for a few robust storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps isolated severe hail. Greatest risk will be with convection that develops along the front as it eases southeast into this region. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast today across much of Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are are expected. ...TX to Lower MS Valley... Upper low has sagged to near the AZ/international border early this morning. As a 90+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of this feature, the low should then eject east early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests the upper low will advance into far west TX by 18z as the speed max approaches the Big Bend. Left-exit region will encourage renewed deep convection across southeast NM into the TX South Plains early as very steep mid-level lapse rates, and large-scale ascent, aid buoyancy within a strongly diffluent high-level flow regime. NAM forecast soundings at the start of the period exhibit substantial MUCAPE across this region. 1km lifted parcel will yield roughly 2500 J/kg. Very large hail may accompany any supercells that evolve with this elevated activity. Downstream, strongest, and most focused, LLJ will extend across the northwestern Gulf Basin into the Arklatex region. Considerable amount of convection has developed along the Red River, across southern AR/northern LA into central MS early this morning. It seems reasonable that the LLJ will maintain a complex corridor of deep convection across this region, driven in large part by warm advection. Models maintain LLJ across east TX into southern AR most of the period. As a result, episodic bouts of deep convection should be noted across this region. While warm advection will prove instrumental in convection today, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across northeast Mexico into the TX side of the Rio Grande Valley. Surface parcels should easily reach their convective temperatures and isolated thunderstorms may develop near the dry line. During the evening, large-scale height falls will spread east and convection may experience upscale growth within a strongly sheared environment. Multiple convective scenarios, along with the influence of ongoing storms, will likely result in a complex evolution, including isolated supercells, clusters, and possible line segments late. Strong shear favors the potential for a few strong tornadoes, along with very large hail. ...Lower Great Lakes... Southern influence of a strong short-wave trough will glance northern OH into western NY. Boundary-layer heating is expected to contribute to modest instability by mid afternoon as surface temperatures warm through the mid 60s to near 70F. Ample deep-layer shear will exist for a few robust storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps isolated severe hail. Greatest risk will be with convection that develops along the front as it eases southeast into this region. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast today across much of Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are are expected. ...TX to Lower MS Valley... Upper low has sagged to near the AZ/international border early this morning. As a 90+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of this feature, the low should then eject east early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests the upper low will advance into far west TX by 18z as the speed max approaches the Big Bend. Left-exit region will encourage renewed deep convection across southeast NM into the TX South Plains early as very steep mid-level lapse rates, and large-scale ascent, aid buoyancy within a strongly diffluent high-level flow regime. NAM forecast soundings at the start of the period exhibit substantial MUCAPE across this region. 1km lifted parcel will yield roughly 2500 J/kg. Very large hail may accompany any supercells that evolve with this elevated activity. Downstream, strongest, and most focused, LLJ will extend across the northwestern Gulf Basin into the Arklatex region. Considerable amount of convection has developed along the Red River, across southern AR/northern LA into central MS early this morning. It seems reasonable that the LLJ will maintain a complex corridor of deep convection across this region, driven in large part by warm advection. Models maintain LLJ across east TX into southern AR most of the period. As a result, episodic bouts of deep convection should be noted across this region. While warm advection will prove instrumental in convection today, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across northeast Mexico into the TX side of the Rio Grande Valley. Surface parcels should easily reach their convective temperatures and isolated thunderstorms may develop near the dry line. During the evening, large-scale height falls will spread east and convection may experience upscale growth within a strongly sheared environment. Multiple convective scenarios, along with the influence of ongoing storms, will likely result in a complex evolution, including isolated supercells, clusters, and possible line segments late. Strong shear favors the potential for a few strong tornadoes, along with very large hail. ...Lower Great Lakes... Southern influence of a strong short-wave trough will glance northern OH into western NY. Boundary-layer heating is expected to contribute to modest instability by mid afternoon as surface temperatures warm through the mid 60s to near 70F. Ample deep-layer shear will exist for a few robust storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps isolated severe hail. Greatest risk will be with convection that develops along the front as it eases southeast into this region. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast today across much of Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are are expected. ...TX to Lower MS Valley... Upper low has sagged to near the AZ/international border early this morning. As a 90+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of this feature, the low should then eject east early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests the upper low will advance into far west TX by 18z as the speed max approaches the Big Bend. Left-exit region will encourage renewed deep convection across southeast NM into the TX South Plains early as very steep mid-level lapse rates, and large-scale ascent, aid buoyancy within a strongly diffluent high-level flow regime. NAM forecast soundings at the start of the period exhibit substantial MUCAPE across this region. 1km lifted parcel will yield roughly 2500 J/kg. Very large hail may accompany any supercells that evolve with this elevated activity. Downstream, strongest, and most focused, LLJ will extend across the northwestern Gulf Basin into the Arklatex region. Considerable amount of convection has developed along the Red River, across southern AR/northern LA into central MS early this morning. It seems reasonable that the LLJ will maintain a complex corridor of deep convection across this region, driven in large part by warm advection. Models maintain LLJ across east TX into southern AR most of the period. As a result, episodic bouts of deep convection should be noted across this region. While warm advection will prove instrumental in convection today, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across northeast Mexico into the TX side of the Rio Grande Valley. Surface parcels should easily reach their convective temperatures and isolated thunderstorms may develop near the dry line. During the evening, large-scale height falls will spread east and convection may experience upscale growth within a strongly sheared environment. Multiple convective scenarios, along with the influence of ongoing storms, will likely result in a complex evolution, including isolated supercells, clusters, and possible line segments late. Strong shear favors the potential for a few strong tornadoes, along with very large hail. ...Lower Great Lakes... Southern influence of a strong short-wave trough will glance northern OH into western NY. Boundary-layer heating is expected to contribute to modest instability by mid afternoon as surface temperatures warm through the mid 60s to near 70F. Ample deep-layer shear will exist for a few robust storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps isolated severe hail. Greatest risk will be with convection that develops along the front as it eases southeast into this region. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast today across much of Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are are expected. ...TX to Lower MS Valley... Upper low has sagged to near the AZ/international border early this morning. As a 90+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of this feature, the low should then eject east early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests the upper low will advance into far west TX by 18z as the speed max approaches the Big Bend. Left-exit region will encourage renewed deep convection across southeast NM into the TX South Plains early as very steep mid-level lapse rates, and large-scale ascent, aid buoyancy within a strongly diffluent high-level flow regime. NAM forecast soundings at the start of the period exhibit substantial MUCAPE across this region. 1km lifted parcel will yield roughly 2500 J/kg. Very large hail may accompany any supercells that evolve with this elevated activity. Downstream, strongest, and most focused, LLJ will extend across the northwestern Gulf Basin into the Arklatex region. Considerable amount of convection has developed along the Red River, across southern AR/northern LA into central MS early this morning. It seems reasonable that the LLJ will maintain a complex corridor of deep convection across this region, driven in large part by warm advection. Models maintain LLJ across east TX into southern AR most of the period. As a result, episodic bouts of deep convection should be noted across this region. While warm advection will prove instrumental in convection today, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across northeast Mexico into the TX side of the Rio Grande Valley. Surface parcels should easily reach their convective temperatures and isolated thunderstorms may develop near the dry line. During the evening, large-scale height falls will spread east and convection may experience upscale growth within a strongly sheared environment. Multiple convective scenarios, along with the influence of ongoing storms, will likely result in a complex evolution, including isolated supercells, clusters, and possible line segments late. Strong shear favors the potential for a few strong tornadoes, along with very large hail. ...Lower Great Lakes... Southern influence of a strong short-wave trough will glance northern OH into western NY. Boundary-layer heating is expected to contribute to modest instability by mid afternoon as surface temperatures warm through the mid 60s to near 70F. Ample deep-layer shear will exist for a few robust storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps isolated severe hail. Greatest risk will be with convection that develops along the front as it eases southeast into this region. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast today across much of Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are are expected. ...TX to Lower MS Valley... Upper low has sagged to near the AZ/international border early this morning. As a 90+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of this feature, the low should then eject east early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests the upper low will advance into far west TX by 18z as the speed max approaches the Big Bend. Left-exit region will encourage renewed deep convection across southeast NM into the TX South Plains early as very steep mid-level lapse rates, and large-scale ascent, aid buoyancy within a strongly diffluent high-level flow regime. NAM forecast soundings at the start of the period exhibit substantial MUCAPE across this region. 1km lifted parcel will yield roughly 2500 J/kg. Very large hail may accompany any supercells that evolve with this elevated activity. Downstream, strongest, and most focused, LLJ will extend across the northwestern Gulf Basin into the Arklatex region. Considerable amount of convection has developed along the Red River, across southern AR/northern LA into central MS early this morning. It seems reasonable that the LLJ will maintain a complex corridor of deep convection across this region, driven in large part by warm advection. Models maintain LLJ across east TX into southern AR most of the period. As a result, episodic bouts of deep convection should be noted across this region. While warm advection will prove instrumental in convection today, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across northeast Mexico into the TX side of the Rio Grande Valley. Surface parcels should easily reach their convective temperatures and isolated thunderstorms may develop near the dry line. During the evening, large-scale height falls will spread east and convection may experience upscale growth within a strongly sheared environment. Multiple convective scenarios, along with the influence of ongoing storms, will likely result in a complex evolution, including isolated supercells, clusters, and possible line segments late. Strong shear favors the potential for a few strong tornadoes, along with very large hail. ...Lower Great Lakes... Southern influence of a strong short-wave trough will glance northern OH into western NY. Boundary-layer heating is expected to contribute to modest instability by mid afternoon as surface temperatures warm through the mid 60s to near 70F. Ample deep-layer shear will exist for a few robust storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps isolated severe hail. Greatest risk will be with convection that develops along the front as it eases southeast into this region. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/09/2024 Read more