Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0384 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 90... FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0384 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Areas affected...eastern portions of central Texas into adjacent western Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 90... Valid 081949Z - 082145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 90 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, may continue to increase with a couple of evolving supercells, before thunderstorms possibly begin consolidating into an organizing cluster near and north of the College Station and Huntsville into Lufkin vicinities toward 5-6 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage and intensity within a narrow corridor, which likely coincides with the northern/leading edge of stronger mid-level inhibition, beneath building ridging within the subtropical branch of westerlies. Models suggest that one on two speed maxima within this regime will contribute to strengthening upper divergence along this corridor during the next few hours, supporting potential for considerable further upscale convective growth. A couple of supercells which have recently evolved to the southeast of the College Station and Huntsville vicinities may continue to intensify in the near term, aided by increasing inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized moderately large CAPE, in the presence of strengthening shear. Gradually, though, it appears that forcing associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may tend to become focused to the north of College Station and Huntsville into Lufkin vicinity, where strongest storms may evolve into an increasingly organized cluster by 22-23Z. ..Kerr.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30879632 31769595 32149397 31559349 30849365 30529494 30449572 30369612 30879632 Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 90 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-115-127- 082140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON WINN TXC001-005-041-051-073-145-161-185-225-241-289-293-313-331-339- 347-351-365-373-395-401-403-405-407-419-455-457-471-477- 082140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE FALLS FREESTONE GRIMES HOUSTON JASPER LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON PANOLA Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 90 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-115-127- 082140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON WINN TXC001-005-041-051-073-145-161-185-225-241-289-293-313-331-339- 347-351-365-373-395-401-403-405-407-419-455-457-471-477- 082140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE FALLS FREESTONE GRIMES HOUSTON JASPER LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON PANOLA Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 90 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-115-127- 082140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON WINN TXC001-005-041-051-073-145-161-185-225-241-289-293-313-331-339- 347-351-365-373-395-401-403-405-407-419-455-457-471-477- 082140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE FALLS FREESTONE GRIMES HOUSTON JASPER LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON PANOLA Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... Deterministic model guidance from ECMWF/GFS has trended up surface wind speeds across far western Texas into southwest Texas. Other model runs have kept sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph. Hi-res ensemble HREF guidance indicates low probability (10-20 percent) of winds speeds and relative humidity reaching Extremely Critical thresholds. Given these trends, potential for locally Extremely Critical conditions are possible within the D2 Critical. Trends will be monitored but inclusion of an area is not needed at this time, due to low probability and coverage potential. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move across northern Mexico and the Southwest and into Texas on Tuesday. South of this low, strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across Far West Texas and Southwest Texas. This will result in 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds and single digit relative humidity. Large fires are possible in this region, and a cold front will bring a wind shift during the evening which could lead to erratic fire behavior on any ongoing fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... Deterministic model guidance from ECMWF/GFS has trended up surface wind speeds across far western Texas into southwest Texas. Other model runs have kept sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph. Hi-res ensemble HREF guidance indicates low probability (10-20 percent) of winds speeds and relative humidity reaching Extremely Critical thresholds. Given these trends, potential for locally Extremely Critical conditions are possible within the D2 Critical. Trends will be monitored but inclusion of an area is not needed at this time, due to low probability and coverage potential. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move across northern Mexico and the Southwest and into Texas on Tuesday. South of this low, strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across Far West Texas and Southwest Texas. This will result in 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds and single digit relative humidity. Large fires are possible in this region, and a cold front will bring a wind shift during the evening which could lead to erratic fire behavior on any ongoing fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... Deterministic model guidance from ECMWF/GFS has trended up surface wind speeds across far western Texas into southwest Texas. Other model runs have kept sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph. Hi-res ensemble HREF guidance indicates low probability (10-20 percent) of winds speeds and relative humidity reaching Extremely Critical thresholds. Given these trends, potential for locally Extremely Critical conditions are possible within the D2 Critical. Trends will be monitored but inclusion of an area is not needed at this time, due to low probability and coverage potential. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move across northern Mexico and the Southwest and into Texas on Tuesday. South of this low, strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across Far West Texas and Southwest Texas. This will result in 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds and single digit relative humidity. Large fires are possible in this region, and a cold front will bring a wind shift during the evening which could lead to erratic fire behavior on any ongoing fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... Deterministic model guidance from ECMWF/GFS has trended up surface wind speeds across far western Texas into southwest Texas. Other model runs have kept sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph. Hi-res ensemble HREF guidance indicates low probability (10-20 percent) of winds speeds and relative humidity reaching Extremely Critical thresholds. Given these trends, potential for locally Extremely Critical conditions are possible within the D2 Critical. Trends will be monitored but inclusion of an area is not needed at this time, due to low probability and coverage potential. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move across northern Mexico and the Southwest and into Texas on Tuesday. South of this low, strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across Far West Texas and Southwest Texas. This will result in 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds and single digit relative humidity. Large fires are possible in this region, and a cold front will bring a wind shift during the evening which could lead to erratic fire behavior on any ongoing fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... Deterministic model guidance from ECMWF/GFS has trended up surface wind speeds across far western Texas into southwest Texas. Other model runs have kept sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph. Hi-res ensemble HREF guidance indicates low probability (10-20 percent) of winds speeds and relative humidity reaching Extremely Critical thresholds. Given these trends, potential for locally Extremely Critical conditions are possible within the D2 Critical. Trends will be monitored but inclusion of an area is not needed at this time, due to low probability and coverage potential. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move across northern Mexico and the Southwest and into Texas on Tuesday. South of this low, strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across Far West Texas and Southwest Texas. This will result in 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds and single digit relative humidity. Large fires are possible in this region, and a cold front will bring a wind shift during the evening which could lead to erratic fire behavior on any ongoing fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... Deterministic model guidance from ECMWF/GFS has trended up surface wind speeds across far western Texas into southwest Texas. Other model runs have kept sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph. Hi-res ensemble HREF guidance indicates low probability (10-20 percent) of winds speeds and relative humidity reaching Extremely Critical thresholds. Given these trends, potential for locally Extremely Critical conditions are possible within the D2 Critical. Trends will be monitored but inclusion of an area is not needed at this time, due to low probability and coverage potential. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move across northern Mexico and the Southwest and into Texas on Tuesday. South of this low, strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across Far West Texas and Southwest Texas. This will result in 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds and single digit relative humidity. Large fires are possible in this region, and a cold front will bring a wind shift during the evening which could lead to erratic fire behavior on any ongoing fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... Deterministic model guidance from ECMWF/GFS has trended up surface wind speeds across far western Texas into southwest Texas. Other model runs have kept sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph. Hi-res ensemble HREF guidance indicates low probability (10-20 percent) of winds speeds and relative humidity reaching Extremely Critical thresholds. Given these trends, potential for locally Extremely Critical conditions are possible within the D2 Critical. Trends will be monitored but inclusion of an area is not needed at this time, due to low probability and coverage potential. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move across northern Mexico and the Southwest and into Texas on Tuesday. South of this low, strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across Far West Texas and Southwest Texas. This will result in 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds and single digit relative humidity. Large fires are possible in this region, and a cold front will bring a wind shift during the evening which could lead to erratic fire behavior on any ongoing fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... Deterministic model guidance from ECMWF/GFS has trended up surface wind speeds across far western Texas into southwest Texas. Other model runs have kept sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph. Hi-res ensemble HREF guidance indicates low probability (10-20 percent) of winds speeds and relative humidity reaching Extremely Critical thresholds. Given these trends, potential for locally Extremely Critical conditions are possible within the D2 Critical. Trends will be monitored but inclusion of an area is not needed at this time, due to low probability and coverage potential. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move across northern Mexico and the Southwest and into Texas on Tuesday. South of this low, strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across Far West Texas and Southwest Texas. This will result in 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds and single digit relative humidity. Large fires are possible in this region, and a cold front will bring a wind shift during the evening which could lead to erratic fire behavior on any ongoing fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... Deterministic model guidance from ECMWF/GFS has trended up surface wind speeds across far western Texas into southwest Texas. Other model runs have kept sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph. Hi-res ensemble HREF guidance indicates low probability (10-20 percent) of winds speeds and relative humidity reaching Extremely Critical thresholds. Given these trends, potential for locally Extremely Critical conditions are possible within the D2 Critical. Trends will be monitored but inclusion of an area is not needed at this time, due to low probability and coverage potential. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move across northern Mexico and the Southwest and into Texas on Tuesday. South of this low, strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across Far West Texas and Southwest Texas. This will result in 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds and single digit relative humidity. Large fires are possible in this region, and a cold front will bring a wind shift during the evening which could lead to erratic fire behavior on any ongoing fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... Deterministic model guidance from ECMWF/GFS has trended up surface wind speeds across far western Texas into southwest Texas. Other model runs have kept sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph. Hi-res ensemble HREF guidance indicates low probability (10-20 percent) of winds speeds and relative humidity reaching Extremely Critical thresholds. Given these trends, potential for locally Extremely Critical conditions are possible within the D2 Critical. Trends will be monitored but inclusion of an area is not needed at this time, due to low probability and coverage potential. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move across northern Mexico and the Southwest and into Texas on Tuesday. South of this low, strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across Far West Texas and Southwest Texas. This will result in 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds and single digit relative humidity. Large fires are possible in this region, and a cold front will bring a wind shift during the evening which could lead to erratic fire behavior on any ongoing fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... Deterministic model guidance from ECMWF/GFS has trended up surface wind speeds across far western Texas into southwest Texas. Other model runs have kept sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph. Hi-res ensemble HREF guidance indicates low probability (10-20 percent) of winds speeds and relative humidity reaching Extremely Critical thresholds. Given these trends, potential for locally Extremely Critical conditions are possible within the D2 Critical. Trends will be monitored but inclusion of an area is not needed at this time, due to low probability and coverage potential. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move across northern Mexico and the Southwest and into Texas on Tuesday. South of this low, strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across Far West Texas and Southwest Texas. This will result in 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds and single digit relative humidity. Large fires are possible in this region, and a cold front will bring a wind shift during the evening which could lead to erratic fire behavior on any ongoing fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... Deterministic model guidance from ECMWF/GFS has trended up surface wind speeds across far western Texas into southwest Texas. Other model runs have kept sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph. Hi-res ensemble HREF guidance indicates low probability (10-20 percent) of winds speeds and relative humidity reaching Extremely Critical thresholds. Given these trends, potential for locally Extremely Critical conditions are possible within the D2 Critical. Trends will be monitored but inclusion of an area is not needed at this time, due to low probability and coverage potential. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move across northern Mexico and the Southwest and into Texas on Tuesday. South of this low, strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across Far West Texas and Southwest Texas. This will result in 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds and single digit relative humidity. Large fires are possible in this region, and a cold front will bring a wind shift during the evening which could lead to erratic fire behavior on any ongoing fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more