Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A upper-level low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D1-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the southern Plains through the middle of the period. For D3 - D4 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D5 - D6 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. Uncertainty on status of fuels after widespread rainfall leads to low confidence in including areas at this time. Low level moisture will stream northward into the southern Plains on D7 - Sunday ahead of a western trough. Potential for strong lee cyclone development and another period of potential for fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A upper-level low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D1-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the southern Plains through the middle of the period. For D3 - D4 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D5 - D6 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. Uncertainty on status of fuels after widespread rainfall leads to low confidence in including areas at this time. Low level moisture will stream northward into the southern Plains on D7 - Sunday ahead of a western trough. Potential for strong lee cyclone development and another period of potential for fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A upper-level low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D1-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the southern Plains through the middle of the period. For D3 - D4 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D5 - D6 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. Uncertainty on status of fuels after widespread rainfall leads to low confidence in including areas at this time. Low level moisture will stream northward into the southern Plains on D7 - Sunday ahead of a western trough. Potential for strong lee cyclone development and another period of potential for fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A upper-level low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D1-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the southern Plains through the middle of the period. For D3 - D4 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D5 - D6 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. Uncertainty on status of fuels after widespread rainfall leads to low confidence in including areas at this time. Low level moisture will stream northward into the southern Plains on D7 - Sunday ahead of a western trough. Potential for strong lee cyclone development and another period of potential for fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A upper-level low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D1-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the southern Plains through the middle of the period. For D3 - D4 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D5 - D6 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. Uncertainty on status of fuels after widespread rainfall leads to low confidence in including areas at this time. Low level moisture will stream northward into the southern Plains on D7 - Sunday ahead of a western trough. Potential for strong lee cyclone development and another period of potential for fire weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0399 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 95... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EAST TX INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0399 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of far east TX into western/northern LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 95... Valid 092050Z - 092215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 95 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/damaging wind potential may increase in the short term with a small bow moving eastward across parts of western/northern Louisiana. Significant severe winds up to around 75 mph appear possible. DISCUSSION...A small bowing complex continues to organize across far east TX into far western LA. Even with cloud cover remaining prevalent downstream into northern LA, gradual airmass destabilization is occurring along and north of a surface boundary. Around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be sufficient to maintain current thunderstorm intensities, and strong deep-layer shear will be more than enough for continued convective organization with the bow. Recent Warn on Forecast (WoF) output shows increasing potential (greater than 50% chance) for severe-caliber winds of 50 kt or greater with this bow as it spreads eastward across parts of northern LA over the next couple of hours. Some chance for significant severe winds up to around 75 mph also appears possible. With ample 0-1 km shear present, and low-level winds backed to easterly along/near the surface boundary, a tornado threat will also exist. The best chance for a tornado will probably remain focused with embedded circulations within the bow, and along the surface boundary. ..Gleason.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV... LAT...LON 32249446 32599442 32749359 32719218 32269206 31609214 31479318 31269441 31749433 32249446 Read more

WW 0095 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 95 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE LFK TO 20 S SHV TO 25 N SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399 ..WEINMAN..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 95 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111- 119-127-092240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC005-403-405-092240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0096 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 9 20:38:03 UTC 2024.

WW 0095 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 95 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S TYR TO 30 SSE GGG TO 40 NNE GGG. ..WEINMAN..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 95 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111- 119-127-092140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC005-073-203-347-365-403-405-419-092140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA CHEROKEE HARRISON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DAL TO 40 SSE CRS TO 35 N LFK. ..WEINMAN..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-187-209-225-281- 287-289-293-309-313-331-349-395-453-491-092140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DAL TO 40 SSE CRS TO 35 N LFK. ..WEINMAN..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-187-209-225-281- 287-289-293-309-313-331-349-395-453-491-092140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DAL TO 40 SSE CRS TO 35 N LFK. ..WEINMAN..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-187-209-225-281- 287-289-293-309-313-331-349-395-453-491-092140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DAL TO 40 SSE CRS TO 35 N LFK. ..WEINMAN..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-187-209-225-281- 287-289-293-309-313-331-349-395-453-491-092140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DAL TO 40 SSE CRS TO 35 N LFK. ..WEINMAN..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-187-209-225-281- 287-289-293-309-313-331-349-395-453-491-092140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DAL TO 40 SSE CRS TO 35 N LFK. ..WEINMAN..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-187-209-225-281- 287-289-293-309-313-331-349-395-453-491-092140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 94 TORNADO TX 091440Z - 092200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 94 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 940 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Several thunderstorm clusters, including a mix of supercells and bowing line segments, are expected along a stalled front across central Texas through the afternoon. More isolated supercell development will be possible later this morning into early this afternoon into the I-35 corridor closer to Austin. The storm environment will support the potential for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and potentially a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Austin TX to 140 miles east northeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more