Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX into LA... A very moist and unstable air mass exists south of an east-west oriented front across central TX. An MCS will likely produce severe weather as it moves from northeast TX into northern LA, along the instability gradient and where shear remains favorable. Farther south, continued heating as well as convergence near the boundary will likely lead to additional development this afternoon, with large hail and expected. Overnight, as cooling aloft with the shortwave trough spreads across central TX, an associated cold front is expected to support additional storms which would travel quickly northeastward across the unstable air mass. Such an overnight scenario would likely yield damaging winds as well as hail. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more