Aggregator

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407 ..DEAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-013-019-021-025-029-041-047-051-055-057-091-123-127-131- 149-163-175-177-185-187-247-249-255-259-261-273-283-285-287-297- 311-325-355-391-409-469-477-479-493-505-507-100440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP BEE BEXAR BRAZOS BROOKS BURLESON CALDWELL CALHOUN COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT DUVAL FAYETTE FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KARNES KENDALL KENEDY KLEBERG LA SALLE LAVACA LEE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MEDINA NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WASHINGTON WEBB WILSON ZAPATA ZAVALA GMZ135-155-231-232-236-237-250-255-100440- Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AUS TO 20 ENE TPL TO 30 NE ACT. WW 96 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407 ..DEAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC145-331-100400- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FALLS MILAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AUS TO 20 ENE TPL TO 30 NE ACT. WW 96 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407 ..DEAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC145-331-100400- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FALLS MILAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AUS TO 20 ENE TPL TO 30 NE ACT. WW 96 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407 ..DEAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC145-331-100400- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FALLS MILAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AUS TO 20 ENE TPL TO 30 NE ACT. WW 96 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407 ..DEAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC145-331-100400- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FALLS MILAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AUS TO 20 ENE TPL TO 30 NE ACT. WW 96 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407 ..DEAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC145-331-100400- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FALLS MILAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AUS TO 20 ENE TPL TO 30 NE ACT. WW 96 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407 ..DEAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC145-331-100400- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FALLS MILAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 96 SEVERE TSTM TX 092125Z - 100400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 96 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 425 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 425 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing across parts of central Texas in a moist and moderately unstable environment. These storms may pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds through the late afternoon and evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 135 miles west southwest of Temple TX to 40 miles east of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 94...WW 95... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0405 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Parts of south TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 100057Z - 100300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm development is expected later this evening. Large hail will be possible initially, with an increasing severe wind risk with time. DISCUSSION...The western portion of surface boundary is beginning to move southward as a cold front across parts of the southwest TX Hill Country this evening. Later this evening, this front will begin intercepting rich low-level moisture which is streaming westward across south-central TX. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support MUCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg near the front. As this occurs, increasing ascent ahead of a mid/upper-level trough over west TX will aid in storm development near and to the immediate cool side of the boundary. Strong mid-upper level southwesterly flow will support effective shear of greater than 50 kt region wide, and initial development may evolve quickly into supercells with a threat of very large hail. However, quick upscale growth will be possible, as convection moves into a region where rather strong heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates occurred earlier today, a scenario supported by recent HRRR and RRFS runs. Should this occur, an increasing threat for significant severe-wind gusts (possibly in the 70-85 mph range) could begin spreading east/northeastward later tonight. Watch issuance is likely by 03Z due to the increasing hail and severe-wind potential. ..Dean/Hart.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28020041 29839871 29859764 29819654 29479637 29159619 28659594 26889742 26689838 26649916 26729941 27079969 28020041 Read more

MD 0404 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97... FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...central Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97... Valid 100049Z - 100215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97 continues. SUMMARY...A bowing line of storms will continue to pose a severe wind threat as it moves across central Mississippi this evening. DISCUSSION...A mature bowing line segment is moving across central Mississippi this evening. Reports have been sparse, but radar representation showing a rear-inflow jet and strong inbound velocities at the apex of the bow would suggest a corridor of potentially severe wind gusts. Despite the well-organized appearance of this bow presently, the eastern extent of watch 97 may be sufficient as the airmass ahead of this bow will become increasingly stable as it moves east. ..Bentley/Hart.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN... LAT...LON 32089143 32209135 32379118 32639109 32829123 32919054 32848981 32558970 32118971 32059023 32009070 31979114 32019144 32089143 Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE JCT TO 30 SSW CRS. ..DEAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-031-053-145-171-209-309-331-453-491-100340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BLANCO BURNET FALLS GILLESPIE HAYS MCLENNAN MILAM TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PNC TO 40 W EMP TO 10 NW MHK TO 20 WSW BIE TO 15 W OLU. ..LYONS..04/07/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-019-035-049-061-073-111-117-127-149-161-197-070140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GEARY GREENWOOD LYON MARSHALL MORRIS POTTAWATOMIE RILEY WABAUNSEE NEC023-067-095-109-151-159-070140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER GAGE JEFFERSON LANCASTER SALINE SEWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PNC TO 40 W EMP TO 10 NW MHK TO 20 WSW BIE TO 15 W OLU. ..LYONS..04/07/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-019-035-049-061-073-111-117-127-149-161-197-070140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GEARY GREENWOOD LYON MARSHALL MORRIS POTTAWATOMIE RILEY WABAUNSEE NEC023-067-095-109-151-159-070140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER GAGE JEFFERSON LANCASTER SALINE SEWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0403 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0403 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 100032Z - 100200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong storms have developed across southeast Texas. A watch is possible if these storms exhibit better organization over the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms have developed within a 850mb confluence axis from near Houston and northeastward. A very moist, unstable environment is present across southeast Texas with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low to mid 70s yielding 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear of 55 to 60 knots will support supercells as the primary storm mode. Forcing for ascent is the primary question as some shortwave ridging is building into the region ahead of the trough digging into northern Texas. This may restrict a greater threat across the region and keep the severe threat more isolated. Low-level shear is not that strong with some veering, but less than 30 knots of flow in the lowest 2 km. Therefore, any stronger supercells which may develop, will have some tornado threat. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29979508 31279408 31339263 31169266 30699275 30139292 29679336 29579418 29409469 29269467 29159492 29979508 Read more

MD 0402 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0402 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95... Valid 092340Z - 100115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells with very large hail potential will continue this evening. DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are ongoing early this evening across central TX, with recent reports of 2+ inch hail across the north side of Austin. These cells are ongoing north of a nearly stationary surface boundary, where MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and effective shear of 50+ kt will continue to provide a favorable supercell environment through much of the evening, with a threat of very large hail (potentially in the 1.75 - 2.5 inch diameter range) and localized severe gusts. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out with any sustained supercell near the surface boundary. While storms should generally move eastward north of the boundary through early evening, more isolated development will be possible near the intersection of the front and a weak surface trough/effective dryline extending into portions of south-central TX, where stronger heating/mixing occurred this afternoon. Later this evening, the western portion of the front may begin accelerating southward with increasing storm coverage, though timing of any such development remains uncertain. ..Dean.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30809943 31099880 31349794 31369754 31339719 31079695 30809687 30219689 29909716 29699742 29659766 29619800 29619832 29799912 29899932 30039947 30209949 30809943 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from south-central Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley. All hazards are anticipated (including very large hail and an isolated strong tornado or two), with damaging gusts to 75 mph possible with a potential squall line later tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across west TX/northeast Mexico early this evening. Water-vapor imagery supports this with moistening midlevels arcing from near MAF to west of the international border along the Rio Grande Valley. Boundary layer steepened significantly west of the dryline across Mexico this afternoon, and high-based convection has attempted to organize from south of DRT to Monterrey Mexico. 00z sounding from DRT supports this post-dryline air mass with very steep lapse rates noted through 6km. There is increasing concern that isolated severe thunderstorms will eventually evolve along the western fringe of the deeper moist boundary layer, then grow upscale into a linear MCS before racing northeast toward the lower Sabine River Valley by 10/12z. Given the large-scale support, strong shear, and very steep lapse rates, environmental conditions appear supportive of this scenario. 01z outlook will reflect this scenario by increasing severe probs into south-central TX. Downstream, persistent low-level warm advection will maintain scattered-numerous thunderstorms from southeast TX into central MS. Earlier thoughts regarding the severe potential continue, including the possibility for an isolated strong tornado and perhaps hail in excess of 2 inches with supercells. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from south-central Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley. All hazards are anticipated (including very large hail and an isolated strong tornado or two), with damaging gusts to 75 mph possible with a potential squall line later tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across west TX/northeast Mexico early this evening. Water-vapor imagery supports this with moistening midlevels arcing from near MAF to west of the international border along the Rio Grande Valley. Boundary layer steepened significantly west of the dryline across Mexico this afternoon, and high-based convection has attempted to organize from south of DRT to Monterrey Mexico. 00z sounding from DRT supports this post-dryline air mass with very steep lapse rates noted through 6km. There is increasing concern that isolated severe thunderstorms will eventually evolve along the western fringe of the deeper moist boundary layer, then grow upscale into a linear MCS before racing northeast toward the lower Sabine River Valley by 10/12z. Given the large-scale support, strong shear, and very steep lapse rates, environmental conditions appear supportive of this scenario. 01z outlook will reflect this scenario by increasing severe probs into south-central TX. Downstream, persistent low-level warm advection will maintain scattered-numerous thunderstorms from southeast TX into central MS. Earlier thoughts regarding the severe potential continue, including the possibility for an isolated strong tornado and perhaps hail in excess of 2 inches with supercells. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from south-central Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley. All hazards are anticipated (including very large hail and an isolated strong tornado or two), with damaging gusts to 75 mph possible with a potential squall line later tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across west TX/northeast Mexico early this evening. Water-vapor imagery supports this with moistening midlevels arcing from near MAF to west of the international border along the Rio Grande Valley. Boundary layer steepened significantly west of the dryline across Mexico this afternoon, and high-based convection has attempted to organize from south of DRT to Monterrey Mexico. 00z sounding from DRT supports this post-dryline air mass with very steep lapse rates noted through 6km. There is increasing concern that isolated severe thunderstorms will eventually evolve along the western fringe of the deeper moist boundary layer, then grow upscale into a linear MCS before racing northeast toward the lower Sabine River Valley by 10/12z. Given the large-scale support, strong shear, and very steep lapse rates, environmental conditions appear supportive of this scenario. 01z outlook will reflect this scenario by increasing severe probs into south-central TX. Downstream, persistent low-level warm advection will maintain scattered-numerous thunderstorms from southeast TX into central MS. Earlier thoughts regarding the severe potential continue, including the possibility for an isolated strong tornado and perhaps hail in excess of 2 inches with supercells. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from south-central Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley. All hazards are anticipated (including very large hail and an isolated strong tornado or two), with damaging gusts to 75 mph possible with a potential squall line later tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across west TX/northeast Mexico early this evening. Water-vapor imagery supports this with moistening midlevels arcing from near MAF to west of the international border along the Rio Grande Valley. Boundary layer steepened significantly west of the dryline across Mexico this afternoon, and high-based convection has attempted to organize from south of DRT to Monterrey Mexico. 00z sounding from DRT supports this post-dryline air mass with very steep lapse rates noted through 6km. There is increasing concern that isolated severe thunderstorms will eventually evolve along the western fringe of the deeper moist boundary layer, then grow upscale into a linear MCS before racing northeast toward the lower Sabine River Valley by 10/12z. Given the large-scale support, strong shear, and very steep lapse rates, environmental conditions appear supportive of this scenario. 01z outlook will reflect this scenario by increasing severe probs into south-central TX. Downstream, persistent low-level warm advection will maintain scattered-numerous thunderstorms from southeast TX into central MS. Earlier thoughts regarding the severe potential continue, including the possibility for an isolated strong tornado and perhaps hail in excess of 2 inches with supercells. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from south-central Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley. All hazards are anticipated (including very large hail and an isolated strong tornado or two), with damaging gusts to 75 mph possible with a potential squall line later tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across west TX/northeast Mexico early this evening. Water-vapor imagery supports this with moistening midlevels arcing from near MAF to west of the international border along the Rio Grande Valley. Boundary layer steepened significantly west of the dryline across Mexico this afternoon, and high-based convection has attempted to organize from south of DRT to Monterrey Mexico. 00z sounding from DRT supports this post-dryline air mass with very steep lapse rates noted through 6km. There is increasing concern that isolated severe thunderstorms will eventually evolve along the western fringe of the deeper moist boundary layer, then grow upscale into a linear MCS before racing northeast toward the lower Sabine River Valley by 10/12z. Given the large-scale support, strong shear, and very steep lapse rates, environmental conditions appear supportive of this scenario. 01z outlook will reflect this scenario by increasing severe probs into south-central TX. Downstream, persistent low-level warm advection will maintain scattered-numerous thunderstorms from southeast TX into central MS. Earlier thoughts regarding the severe potential continue, including the possibility for an isolated strong tornado and perhaps hail in excess of 2 inches with supercells. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2024 Read more