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WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LRD TO 45 ENE COT TO 40 ESE AUS. ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-041-047-051-057-123-131-149-175-177-185-247-249-255- 261-273-285-297-311-355-391-409-469-477-505-100640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZOS BROOKS BURLESON CALHOUN DEWITT DUVAL FAYETTE GOLIAD GONZALES GRIMES JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KARNES KENEDY KLEBERG LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WASHINGTON ZAPATA GMZ135-155-231-232-236-237-250-255-100640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LRD TO 45 ENE COT TO 40 ESE AUS. ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-041-047-051-057-123-131-149-175-177-185-247-249-255- 261-273-285-297-311-355-391-409-469-477-505-100640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZOS BROOKS BURLESON CALHOUN DEWITT DUVAL FAYETTE GOLIAD GONZALES GRIMES JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KARNES KENEDY KLEBERG LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WASHINGTON ZAPATA GMZ135-155-231-232-236-237-250-255-100640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+), and widespread damaging winds, some of which may be particularly damaging. ...Gulf States... Well-defined upper low is currently located over the Big Bend region of west TX. This feature is forecast to eject northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. This ejection will be aided in part by a 70-80kt 500mb speed max that will translate across south TX into AL by 11/12z. LLJ will remain focused across LA into the early part of the day1 period; however, a quick eastward shift into AL is expected by early evening as height falls overspread this region. While this very dynamic system will aid large-scale ascent, low-level warm advection will prove instrumental in much of the convection through the period. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection was noted from northwestern AL-central MS-northern LA-southeast TX. This activity is a continuation of Monday evening thunderstorm complex, and will greatly influence buoyancy across the northern Gulf States due to substantial precipitation/overturning. This southwest-northeast zone of storms will likely oscillate along this zone through mid day before the upper trough shunts this activity east. At 0530z, a strong/severe band of thunderstorms has developed over deep south TX. This is the leading edge of stronger forcing which should advance to near the Sabine River Valley by the start of the period. Current thinking is an organized band of severe thunderstorms, possibly a bowing squall line, will be located with the front near the TX/LA border at sunrise. This MCS should advance east during the day within a strongly sheared environment characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, isolated discrete supercells could develop ahead of the main squall line. A few strong tornadoes could develop with this type of activity if it evolves. Given the extensive precipitation currently noted across the northern Gulf States, the primary corridor of severe should extend across LA-southern half of MS into southern AL. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+), and widespread damaging winds, some of which may be particularly damaging. ...Gulf States... Well-defined upper low is currently located over the Big Bend region of west TX. This feature is forecast to eject northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. This ejection will be aided in part by a 70-80kt 500mb speed max that will translate across south TX into AL by 11/12z. LLJ will remain focused across LA into the early part of the day1 period; however, a quick eastward shift into AL is expected by early evening as height falls overspread this region. While this very dynamic system will aid large-scale ascent, low-level warm advection will prove instrumental in much of the convection through the period. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection was noted from northwestern AL-central MS-northern LA-southeast TX. This activity is a continuation of Monday evening thunderstorm complex, and will greatly influence buoyancy across the northern Gulf States due to substantial precipitation/overturning. This southwest-northeast zone of storms will likely oscillate along this zone through mid day before the upper trough shunts this activity east. At 0530z, a strong/severe band of thunderstorms has developed over deep south TX. This is the leading edge of stronger forcing which should advance to near the Sabine River Valley by the start of the period. Current thinking is an organized band of severe thunderstorms, possibly a bowing squall line, will be located with the front near the TX/LA border at sunrise. This MCS should advance east during the day within a strongly sheared environment characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, isolated discrete supercells could develop ahead of the main squall line. A few strong tornadoes could develop with this type of activity if it evolves. Given the extensive precipitation currently noted across the northern Gulf States, the primary corridor of severe should extend across LA-southern half of MS into southern AL. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+), and widespread damaging winds, some of which may be particularly damaging. ...Gulf States... Well-defined upper low is currently located over the Big Bend region of west TX. This feature is forecast to eject northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. This ejection will be aided in part by a 70-80kt 500mb speed max that will translate across south TX into AL by 11/12z. LLJ will remain focused across LA into the early part of the day1 period; however, a quick eastward shift into AL is expected by early evening as height falls overspread this region. While this very dynamic system will aid large-scale ascent, low-level warm advection will prove instrumental in much of the convection through the period. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection was noted from northwestern AL-central MS-northern LA-southeast TX. This activity is a continuation of Monday evening thunderstorm complex, and will greatly influence buoyancy across the northern Gulf States due to substantial precipitation/overturning. This southwest-northeast zone of storms will likely oscillate along this zone through mid day before the upper trough shunts this activity east. At 0530z, a strong/severe band of thunderstorms has developed over deep south TX. This is the leading edge of stronger forcing which should advance to near the Sabine River Valley by the start of the period. Current thinking is an organized band of severe thunderstorms, possibly a bowing squall line, will be located with the front near the TX/LA border at sunrise. This MCS should advance east during the day within a strongly sheared environment characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, isolated discrete supercells could develop ahead of the main squall line. A few strong tornadoes could develop with this type of activity if it evolves. Given the extensive precipitation currently noted across the northern Gulf States, the primary corridor of severe should extend across LA-southern half of MS into southern AL. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+), and widespread damaging winds, some of which may be particularly damaging. ...Gulf States... Well-defined upper low is currently located over the Big Bend region of west TX. This feature is forecast to eject northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. This ejection will be aided in part by a 70-80kt 500mb speed max that will translate across south TX into AL by 11/12z. LLJ will remain focused across LA into the early part of the day1 period; however, a quick eastward shift into AL is expected by early evening as height falls overspread this region. While this very dynamic system will aid large-scale ascent, low-level warm advection will prove instrumental in much of the convection through the period. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection was noted from northwestern AL-central MS-northern LA-southeast TX. This activity is a continuation of Monday evening thunderstorm complex, and will greatly influence buoyancy across the northern Gulf States due to substantial precipitation/overturning. This southwest-northeast zone of storms will likely oscillate along this zone through mid day before the upper trough shunts this activity east. At 0530z, a strong/severe band of thunderstorms has developed over deep south TX. This is the leading edge of stronger forcing which should advance to near the Sabine River Valley by the start of the period. Current thinking is an organized band of severe thunderstorms, possibly a bowing squall line, will be located with the front near the TX/LA border at sunrise. This MCS should advance east during the day within a strongly sheared environment characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, isolated discrete supercells could develop ahead of the main squall line. A few strong tornadoes could develop with this type of activity if it evolves. Given the extensive precipitation currently noted across the northern Gulf States, the primary corridor of severe should extend across LA-southern half of MS into southern AL. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/10/2024 Read more