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WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE GLS TO 40 W POE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113- 115-101240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON TXC351-101240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEWTON GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-101240- Read more

WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE GLS TO 40 W POE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113- 115-101240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON TXC351-101240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEWTON GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-101240- Read more

MD 0409 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 99... FOR UPPER TX COAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0409 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Areas affected...Upper TX Coast/Southeast Texas...Southwest/South-Central Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99... Valid 100821Z - 101015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts, some of which could exceed 75 mph, and line-embedded tornadoes are expected to become more common over the next few hours. A downstream Tornado Watch will likely be needed across far southeast Texas and southwest/south-central Louisiana. DISCUSSION...Convective trends within the ongoing line across southeast TX/Upper TX Coast continue to suggest organization into a more formidable squall line is underway. Current storm motion of this line is eastward at 40 kt, and this storm motion takes it to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99 at 10Z. However, some additional acceleration is likely as the line becomes better organized, potentially taking it to the edge of the watch sooner. An outflow boundary remains draped from northern Harris County eastward in Calcasieu Parish. Interaction with this boundary likely contributed to the mesovortex currently ongoing over northern Harris County. This boundary will likely act as the northern extent of the severe risk over the next few hours. Damaging wind gusts, some of which could exceed 75 mph, will remain the primary severe risk. However, line-embedded mesovorticies capable of tornadoes are also expected to become more common as the line moves into far southeast TX and southwest LA. As a result, a Tornado Watch will likely be needed downstream within the next hour. ..Mosier/Smith.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 30099569 30949474 31029225 30119185 29699259 29579325 29489395 29099489 28699592 30099569 Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PSX TO 35 SSE UTS TO 15 SW UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409 ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-167-291-373-407-471-101040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON LIBERTY POLK SAN JACINTO WALKER GMZ335-355-101040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PSX TO 35 SSE UTS TO 15 SW UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409 ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-167-291-373-407-471-101040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON LIBERTY POLK SAN JACINTO WALKER GMZ335-355-101040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PSX TO 35 SSE UTS TO 15 SW UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409 ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-167-291-373-407-471-101040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON LIBERTY POLK SAN JACINTO WALKER GMZ335-355-101040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PSX TO 35 SSE UTS TO 15 SW UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409 ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-167-291-373-407-471-101040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON LIBERTY POLK SAN JACINTO WALKER GMZ335-355-101040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PSX TO 35 SSE UTS TO 15 SW UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409 ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-167-291-373-407-471-101040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON LIBERTY POLK SAN JACINTO WALKER GMZ335-355-101040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PSX TO 35 SSE UTS TO 15 SW UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409 ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-167-291-373-407-471-101040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON LIBERTY POLK SAN JACINTO WALKER GMZ335-355-101040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 99 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 100450Z - 101200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 99 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1150 PM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intense line of thunderstorms over south Texas will track eastward overnight across the watch area. The potential exists for considerable coverage of damaging wind gust and some hail. Isolated tornadoes are also possible along the leading edge of the squall line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north northwest of Houston TX to 30 miles southeast of Palacios TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Hart Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of concern will be an amplified upper low that is initially off the CA coast at 12Z Saturday. This low should dampen as it steadily progresses across the Southwest, before amplifying once again as it emerges onto the central Great Plains sometime on D6, as a separate shortwave trough digs towards the Pacific Northwest. Timing spread within the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance appears larger relative to yesterday, with the 00Z ECMWF decidedly trending farther east over the past 24 hours. It appears to be on the eastern envelope compared to its ensemble members. The overall forecast impact is with regard to dryline placement and surface cyclone evolution during the day on Monday and beyond. The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area. A lesser severe threat will probably continue into D7/Tuesday. But even further spatial uncertainty, in conjunction with the impact of the prior day convection and consensus signal for the deep cyclone to occlude northeastward, renders low confidence for highlighting a severe threat area yet. The area-of-interest appears to have shifted more to the east relative to yesterday, in an arc around the eastern Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of concern will be an amplified upper low that is initially off the CA coast at 12Z Saturday. This low should dampen as it steadily progresses across the Southwest, before amplifying once again as it emerges onto the central Great Plains sometime on D6, as a separate shortwave trough digs towards the Pacific Northwest. Timing spread within the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance appears larger relative to yesterday, with the 00Z ECMWF decidedly trending farther east over the past 24 hours. It appears to be on the eastern envelope compared to its ensemble members. The overall forecast impact is with regard to dryline placement and surface cyclone evolution during the day on Monday and beyond. The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area. A lesser severe threat will probably continue into D7/Tuesday. But even further spatial uncertainty, in conjunction with the impact of the prior day convection and consensus signal for the deep cyclone to occlude northeastward, renders low confidence for highlighting a severe threat area yet. The area-of-interest appears to have shifted more to the east relative to yesterday, in an arc around the eastern Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of concern will be an amplified upper low that is initially off the CA coast at 12Z Saturday. This low should dampen as it steadily progresses across the Southwest, before amplifying once again as it emerges onto the central Great Plains sometime on D6, as a separate shortwave trough digs towards the Pacific Northwest. Timing spread within the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance appears larger relative to yesterday, with the 00Z ECMWF decidedly trending farther east over the past 24 hours. It appears to be on the eastern envelope compared to its ensemble members. The overall forecast impact is with regard to dryline placement and surface cyclone evolution during the day on Monday and beyond. The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area. A lesser severe threat will probably continue into D7/Tuesday. But even further spatial uncertainty, in conjunction with the impact of the prior day convection and consensus signal for the deep cyclone to occlude northeastward, renders low confidence for highlighting a severe threat area yet. The area-of-interest appears to have shifted more to the east relative to yesterday, in an arc around the eastern Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of concern will be an amplified upper low that is initially off the CA coast at 12Z Saturday. This low should dampen as it steadily progresses across the Southwest, before amplifying once again as it emerges onto the central Great Plains sometime on D6, as a separate shortwave trough digs towards the Pacific Northwest. Timing spread within the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance appears larger relative to yesterday, with the 00Z ECMWF decidedly trending farther east over the past 24 hours. It appears to be on the eastern envelope compared to its ensemble members. The overall forecast impact is with regard to dryline placement and surface cyclone evolution during the day on Monday and beyond. The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area. A lesser severe threat will probably continue into D7/Tuesday. But even further spatial uncertainty, in conjunction with the impact of the prior day convection and consensus signal for the deep cyclone to occlude northeastward, renders low confidence for highlighting a severe threat area yet. The area-of-interest appears to have shifted more to the east relative to yesterday, in an arc around the eastern Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of concern will be an amplified upper low that is initially off the CA coast at 12Z Saturday. This low should dampen as it steadily progresses across the Southwest, before amplifying once again as it emerges onto the central Great Plains sometime on D6, as a separate shortwave trough digs towards the Pacific Northwest. Timing spread within the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance appears larger relative to yesterday, with the 00Z ECMWF decidedly trending farther east over the past 24 hours. It appears to be on the eastern envelope compared to its ensemble members. The overall forecast impact is with regard to dryline placement and surface cyclone evolution during the day on Monday and beyond. The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area. A lesser severe threat will probably continue into D7/Tuesday. But even further spatial uncertainty, in conjunction with the impact of the prior day convection and consensus signal for the deep cyclone to occlude northeastward, renders low confidence for highlighting a severe threat area yet. The area-of-interest appears to have shifted more to the east relative to yesterday, in an arc around the eastern Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of concern will be an amplified upper low that is initially off the CA coast at 12Z Saturday. This low should dampen as it steadily progresses across the Southwest, before amplifying once again as it emerges onto the central Great Plains sometime on D6, as a separate shortwave trough digs towards the Pacific Northwest. Timing spread within the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance appears larger relative to yesterday, with the 00Z ECMWF decidedly trending farther east over the past 24 hours. It appears to be on the eastern envelope compared to its ensemble members. The overall forecast impact is with regard to dryline placement and surface cyclone evolution during the day on Monday and beyond. The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area. A lesser severe threat will probably continue into D7/Tuesday. But even further spatial uncertainty, in conjunction with the impact of the prior day convection and consensus signal for the deep cyclone to occlude northeastward, renders low confidence for highlighting a severe threat area yet. The area-of-interest appears to have shifted more to the east relative to yesterday, in an arc around the eastern Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of concern will be an amplified upper low that is initially off the CA coast at 12Z Saturday. This low should dampen as it steadily progresses across the Southwest, before amplifying once again as it emerges onto the central Great Plains sometime on D6, as a separate shortwave trough digs towards the Pacific Northwest. Timing spread within the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance appears larger relative to yesterday, with the 00Z ECMWF decidedly trending farther east over the past 24 hours. It appears to be on the eastern envelope compared to its ensemble members. The overall forecast impact is with regard to dryline placement and surface cyclone evolution during the day on Monday and beyond. The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area. A lesser severe threat will probably continue into D7/Tuesday. But even further spatial uncertainty, in conjunction with the impact of the prior day convection and consensus signal for the deep cyclone to occlude northeastward, renders low confidence for highlighting a severe threat area yet. The area-of-interest appears to have shifted more to the east relative to yesterday, in an arc around the eastern Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of concern will be an amplified upper low that is initially off the CA coast at 12Z Saturday. This low should dampen as it steadily progresses across the Southwest, before amplifying once again as it emerges onto the central Great Plains sometime on D6, as a separate shortwave trough digs towards the Pacific Northwest. Timing spread within the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance appears larger relative to yesterday, with the 00Z ECMWF decidedly trending farther east over the past 24 hours. It appears to be on the eastern envelope compared to its ensemble members. The overall forecast impact is with regard to dryline placement and surface cyclone evolution during the day on Monday and beyond. The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area. A lesser severe threat will probably continue into D7/Tuesday. But even further spatial uncertainty, in conjunction with the impact of the prior day convection and consensus signal for the deep cyclone to occlude northeastward, renders low confidence for highlighting a severe threat area yet. The area-of-interest appears to have shifted more to the east relative to yesterday, in an arc around the eastern Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of concern will be an amplified upper low that is initially off the CA coast at 12Z Saturday. This low should dampen as it steadily progresses across the Southwest, before amplifying once again as it emerges onto the central Great Plains sometime on D6, as a separate shortwave trough digs towards the Pacific Northwest. Timing spread within the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance appears larger relative to yesterday, with the 00Z ECMWF decidedly trending farther east over the past 24 hours. It appears to be on the eastern envelope compared to its ensemble members. The overall forecast impact is with regard to dryline placement and surface cyclone evolution during the day on Monday and beyond. The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area. A lesser severe threat will probably continue into D7/Tuesday. But even further spatial uncertainty, in conjunction with the impact of the prior day convection and consensus signal for the deep cyclone to occlude northeastward, renders low confidence for highlighting a severe threat area yet. The area-of-interest appears to have shifted more to the east relative to yesterday, in an arc around the eastern Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of concern will be an amplified upper low that is initially off the CA coast at 12Z Saturday. This low should dampen as it steadily progresses across the Southwest, before amplifying once again as it emerges onto the central Great Plains sometime on D6, as a separate shortwave trough digs towards the Pacific Northwest. Timing spread within the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance appears larger relative to yesterday, with the 00Z ECMWF decidedly trending farther east over the past 24 hours. It appears to be on the eastern envelope compared to its ensemble members. The overall forecast impact is with regard to dryline placement and surface cyclone evolution during the day on Monday and beyond. The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area. A lesser severe threat will probably continue into D7/Tuesday. But even further spatial uncertainty, in conjunction with the impact of the prior day convection and consensus signal for the deep cyclone to occlude northeastward, renders low confidence for highlighting a severe threat area yet. The area-of-interest appears to have shifted more to the east relative to yesterday, in an arc around the eastern Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. Read more