SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
OHIO INTO WESERN WEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
KENTUCKY ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
PENNSYLVANIA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds,
and isolated large hail are likely from northern Kentucky across
Ohio Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a couple
tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into
northern Florida, mainly from Thursday morning through early
afternoon.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough moving across the Southeast will phase with an
upper MS Valley wave, becoming an elongated, negative-tilt trough
late in the day from MN to GA. A meridional 80+ kt midlevel speed
max will precede the southern wave, ejecting northeastward toward
the Mid Atlantic during the evening.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves from TN toward
Lake Erie by 00Z, with a cold front extending southward. Well ahead
of the cold front, a expansive warm-conveyor will exist from
northern FL/GA northward across the Mid Atlantic, ahead of an
advancing dry slot. Substantial midlevel moistening will lead to
clouds and precipitation, which may tend to limit destabilization
over parts of the southeast.
Farther north toward OH, a secondary area of instability will
develop, owing to steep lapse rates and better heating. Strong
overall synoptic-scale lift here should result in an area of severe
storms near the surface low.
...KY...OH...WV...
Early day precipitation is expected from northern KY into OH due to
50 kt southerly winds at 850 mb bring moisture northward across an
initially cool air mass. Shortly after, strong heating is forecast
over much of eastern TN and KY, with boundary layer mixing and
steepening low-level lapse rates spreading north across OH and
western WV. The cold front will initially be slow moving, allowing a
prolonged warm sector. Cells are likely to develop by early
afternoon across KY and eastern IN, developing northeastward across
OH, WV, and eventually western PA. Forecast hodographs along with
sufficient instability support a supercell risk as instability
increases from the south, with effective SRH > 200 m2/s2. While
neither instability nor shear will be particularly strong, the
synoptic setup with deepening surface low and enhanced low-level
shear near the theta-e surge will likely favor several cells capable
of producing tornadoes. In addition, strong deep-layer wind speeds
will support fast moving cells or even bowing structures, with
damaging gusts possible.
...Southeast and Mid Atlantic...
A line of storms, possibly severe, will be ongoing ahead of the cold
front from southern GA across northern FL. A few hundred J/kg MLCAPE
is forecast, along with strong SRH with 300-500 m2/s2. As such, a
few embedded supercells, perhaps a brief tornado, will be possible.
The main mitigating factor will be poor low-level lapse rates/deep
saturated layers which may tend to reduce effective low-level SRH.
However, sufficient instability and warming ahead of the line during
the day could result in a few severe wind or tornado reports given
the strong shear.
..Jewell.. 04/10/2024
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