SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated further south along the Rio Grande Plains into the Rio Grand Valley. While some areas east of this region received wetting rainfall, these areas received little to no precipitation. Coordination with local partners indicates that fuels may be more receptive to spread across these regions, supporting the southward expansion. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Rio Grande today. A deeply mixed airmass will be in place which will allow some of this stronger flow to mix to the surface. Sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph with relative humidity around 20 percent are expected. Removed the Elevated area from far south Texas due to ongoing rain this morning which is expected to bring wetting rain to this entire region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated further south along the Rio Grande Plains into the Rio Grand Valley. While some areas east of this region received wetting rainfall, these areas received little to no precipitation. Coordination with local partners indicates that fuels may be more receptive to spread across these regions, supporting the southward expansion. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Rio Grande today. A deeply mixed airmass will be in place which will allow some of this stronger flow to mix to the surface. Sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph with relative humidity around 20 percent are expected. Removed the Elevated area from far south Texas due to ongoing rain this morning which is expected to bring wetting rain to this entire region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated further south along the Rio Grande Plains into the Rio Grand Valley. While some areas east of this region received wetting rainfall, these areas received little to no precipitation. Coordination with local partners indicates that fuels may be more receptive to spread across these regions, supporting the southward expansion. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Rio Grande today. A deeply mixed airmass will be in place which will allow some of this stronger flow to mix to the surface. Sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph with relative humidity around 20 percent are expected. Removed the Elevated area from far south Texas due to ongoing rain this morning which is expected to bring wetting rain to this entire region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated further south along the Rio Grande Plains into the Rio Grand Valley. While some areas east of this region received wetting rainfall, these areas received little to no precipitation. Coordination with local partners indicates that fuels may be more receptive to spread across these regions, supporting the southward expansion. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Rio Grande today. A deeply mixed airmass will be in place which will allow some of this stronger flow to mix to the surface. Sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph with relative humidity around 20 percent are expected. Removed the Elevated area from far south Texas due to ongoing rain this morning which is expected to bring wetting rain to this entire region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated further south along the Rio Grande Plains into the Rio Grand Valley. While some areas east of this region received wetting rainfall, these areas received little to no precipitation. Coordination with local partners indicates that fuels may be more receptive to spread across these regions, supporting the southward expansion. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Rio Grande today. A deeply mixed airmass will be in place which will allow some of this stronger flow to mix to the surface. Sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph with relative humidity around 20 percent are expected. Removed the Elevated area from far south Texas due to ongoing rain this morning which is expected to bring wetting rain to this entire region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated further south along the Rio Grande Plains into the Rio Grand Valley. While some areas east of this region received wetting rainfall, these areas received little to no precipitation. Coordination with local partners indicates that fuels may be more receptive to spread across these regions, supporting the southward expansion. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Rio Grande today. A deeply mixed airmass will be in place which will allow some of this stronger flow to mix to the surface. Sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph with relative humidity around 20 percent are expected. Removed the Elevated area from far south Texas due to ongoing rain this morning which is expected to bring wetting rain to this entire region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated further south along the Rio Grande Plains into the Rio Grand Valley. While some areas east of this region received wetting rainfall, these areas received little to no precipitation. Coordination with local partners indicates that fuels may be more receptive to spread across these regions, supporting the southward expansion. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Rio Grande today. A deeply mixed airmass will be in place which will allow some of this stronger flow to mix to the surface. Sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph with relative humidity around 20 percent are expected. Removed the Elevated area from far south Texas due to ongoing rain this morning which is expected to bring wetting rain to this entire region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated further south along the Rio Grande Plains into the Rio Grand Valley. While some areas east of this region received wetting rainfall, these areas received little to no precipitation. Coordination with local partners indicates that fuels may be more receptive to spread across these regions, supporting the southward expansion. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Rio Grande today. A deeply mixed airmass will be in place which will allow some of this stronger flow to mix to the surface. Sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph with relative humidity around 20 percent are expected. Removed the Elevated area from far south Texas due to ongoing rain this morning which is expected to bring wetting rain to this entire region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 414

1 year 4 months ago
MD 0414 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 101...102... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0414 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Areas affected...far southeast Louisiana...southeast Mississippi...southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 101...102... Valid 101601Z - 101730Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 101, 102 continues. SUMMARY...A swath of damaging wind with gusts to 70 mph is possible across southeast Mississippi into far southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle over the next couple of hours. A couple of tornadoes also remain possible. DISCUSSION...The line of convection over southeast MS and far southeast LA will continue to develop east at around 60 mph. A swath of damaging gusts will continue. The corridor of greatest risk over the next couple of hours will be focused closer to the coast across southeast MS into southwest AL where better low-level moisture and instability are noted. This area will also align with more favorable effective SRH greater than 300 m2/s2 and STP values around 1-2. Furthermore, the MOB VWP indicated an enlarged, and favorably curved low-level hodograph. This environment will support tornado potential, either via line embedded mesovortex generation or cell mergers into the line, as has been observed via radar over the past 30-60 minutes across southeast LA. ..Leitman.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31538967 32078964 32318942 32478833 32348759 31938694 31358677 30458661 30118672 29828719 29558851 29368937 29428990 29719019 30648980 30808970 31538967 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 102 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0102 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-047-053-085-091-097-099-119-129- 131-101740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS ESCAMBIA LOWNDES MARENGO MOBILE MONROE SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-101740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-650-655-101740- CW Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 101 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CEW TO 25 SW DHN TO 45 NNE DHN. ..KERR..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-102240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-073-077-129-131-133-102240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-243-253-273-102240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER CALHOUN CLAY Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 101 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-067-069-109-102040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON PIKE FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-073-077-129-131-133-102040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-239-243-253-273- 102040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 101 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-067-069-109-102040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON PIKE FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-073-077-129-131-133-102040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-239-243-253-273- 102040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 101 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW MOB TO 30 WSW PNS TO 15 WSW GZH TO 15 NW TOI. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-035-039-041-053-101940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA FLC033-091-113-101940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ633-634-635-636-650-655-101940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PERDIDO BAY AREA Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 101 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE GPT TO 30 N MOB TO 25 SSW SEM TO 15 SSE MGM. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-035-039-041-053-097-099-101840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA MOBILE MONROE FLC033-091-113-101840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-650-655-101840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE NORTH MOBILE BAY Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 101 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-047-053-085-091-097-099-119-129- 131-101740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS ESCAMBIA LOWNDES MARENGO MOBILE MONROE SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-101740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-650-655-101740- CW Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 101

1 year 4 months ago
WW 101 TORNADO LA MS CW 101100Z - 101800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 600 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A destabilizing airmass across the central Gulf Coast will support an increasing severe thunderstorm and tornado risk this morning into the midday. The tornado risk will likely maximize with any supercells that develop within the warm sector as the marine warm front advances northward. A squall line will move west to east across the area with a risk for damaging gusts and the tornado risk will likely focus with any sustained mesovortex or embedded supercell. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 95 miles northwest of Meridian MS to 45 miles west southwest of Boothville LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 99...WW 100... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Smith Read more

SPC Apr 10, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHERN AL...FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will continue along the Middle Gulf Coast today into additional parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley through evening. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Middle Gulf Coast to Southeast/Tennessee Valley... At late morning, a prominent bowing segment with history of severe/damaging wind gusts continues near the southeast Mississippi/southwest Alabama state line vicinity, with strong convection preceding it (up to 75 miles to its east). The northern half of this convection continues to outpace the influx of richer low-level moisture, with the preceding cloud canopy also somewhat limiting insolation/heating in areas to the north of the immediate coast. A predominant linear/potentially somewhat mixed convective mode is likely to persist regionally into this evening, with general east-northeastward sustenance of the intense bowing convective line and the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells materializing ahead of it, particularly on its southern/southeast flank. Potentially widespread damaging winds remain a viable possibility, along with tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+) coincident with very strong low-level shear (500+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH per regional WSR-88D data such as MOB). The damaging wind/tornado risks are expected to persist into tonight particularly across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia, as the low-level jet nocturnally restrengthens and convection continues to focus/move inland along/south of the effective boundary as reinforced by this morning's/afternoon's MCS. Farther northwest, some strong/locally severe lower-topped storms could occur this afternoon into evening in a steeper mid-level lapse rate regime near the synoptic low and nearby frontal zone from the ArkLaTex toward the Tennessee Valley. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 10, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHERN AL...FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will continue along the Middle Gulf Coast today into additional parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley through evening. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Middle Gulf Coast to Southeast/Tennessee Valley... At late morning, a prominent bowing segment with history of severe/damaging wind gusts continues near the southeast Mississippi/southwest Alabama state line vicinity, with strong convection preceding it (up to 75 miles to its east). The northern half of this convection continues to outpace the influx of richer low-level moisture, with the preceding cloud canopy also somewhat limiting insolation/heating in areas to the north of the immediate coast. A predominant linear/potentially somewhat mixed convective mode is likely to persist regionally into this evening, with general east-northeastward sustenance of the intense bowing convective line and the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells materializing ahead of it, particularly on its southern/southeast flank. Potentially widespread damaging winds remain a viable possibility, along with tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+) coincident with very strong low-level shear (500+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH per regional WSR-88D data such as MOB). The damaging wind/tornado risks are expected to persist into tonight particularly across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia, as the low-level jet nocturnally restrengthens and convection continues to focus/move inland along/south of the effective boundary as reinforced by this morning's/afternoon's MCS. Farther northwest, some strong/locally severe lower-topped storms could occur this afternoon into evening in a steeper mid-level lapse rate regime near the synoptic low and nearby frontal zone from the ArkLaTex toward the Tennessee Valley. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 10, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHERN AL...FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will continue along the Middle Gulf Coast today into additional parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley through evening. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Middle Gulf Coast to Southeast/Tennessee Valley... At late morning, a prominent bowing segment with history of severe/damaging wind gusts continues near the southeast Mississippi/southwest Alabama state line vicinity, with strong convection preceding it (up to 75 miles to its east). The northern half of this convection continues to outpace the influx of richer low-level moisture, with the preceding cloud canopy also somewhat limiting insolation/heating in areas to the north of the immediate coast. A predominant linear/potentially somewhat mixed convective mode is likely to persist regionally into this evening, with general east-northeastward sustenance of the intense bowing convective line and the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells materializing ahead of it, particularly on its southern/southeast flank. Potentially widespread damaging winds remain a viable possibility, along with tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+) coincident with very strong low-level shear (500+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH per regional WSR-88D data such as MOB). The damaging wind/tornado risks are expected to persist into tonight particularly across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia, as the low-level jet nocturnally restrengthens and convection continues to focus/move inland along/south of the effective boundary as reinforced by this morning's/afternoon's MCS. Farther northwest, some strong/locally severe lower-topped storms could occur this afternoon into evening in a steeper mid-level lapse rate regime near the synoptic low and nearby frontal zone from the ArkLaTex toward the Tennessee Valley. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/10/2024 Read more