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WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW 7R4 TO 15 NW LFT TO 35 NNE LFT TO 15 ENE ESF. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC045-055-099-101-113-101440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW 7R4 TO 15 NW LFT TO 35 NNE LFT TO 15 ENE ESF. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC045-055-099-101-113-101440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW 7R4 TO 15 NW LFT TO 35 NNE LFT TO 15 ENE ESF. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC045-055-099-101-113-101440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 100 TORNADO LA TX CW 100845Z - 101400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Louisiana Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning from 345 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A squall line will likely intensify as it accelerates eastward through the early morning across the northwest Gulf Coastal plain. Tornadoes are possible with any longer lived mesovortex or supercell that can develop ahead of the squall line. The risk for damaging gusts will likely increase through the early morning as the squall line moves into southwest and southern Louisiana. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Port Arthur TX to 30 miles east of Lafayette LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...WW 99... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Smith Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

MD 0411 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 100... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0411 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Areas affected...Far Southeast TX...Southern LA...Central/Southern MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 100... Valid 101035Z - 101230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues. SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts and line-embedded tornadoes remain possible across far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Additionally, the tornado threat appears to be increasing across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, where a Tornado Watch will be needed soon DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line continues to move quickly across far southeast TX. Recent radar imagery has shown an increase in echo tops within the line, with a bookend vortex also becoming more observable. This line is now more favorably oriented with the deep-layer vertical shear vector and the downstream air mass remains moist and unstable. As such, the line is expected to continue progresses eastward into southwest LA, with some potential intensification possible. Primary threat remains strong gusts (60-80 mph), but embedded QLCS tornadoes are possible as well. Farther east, a blossoming warm-air advection regime is contributing to increasing storm coverage and intensity. Storm in Assumption Parish has a strong updraft with modest supercellular characteristics. This trend for increasing storm coverage and intensity will likely spread northward/northeastward into more of southeast LA and eventually into southern MS. The parameter space supports supercells capable of all severe hazards and Tornado Watch will likely be needed soon. ..Mosier/Smith.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 29429189 29599311 29509413 29739459 30079467 30529448 30929373 31339162 32379032 32288886 31078899 29439029 29429189 Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE GLS TO 40 W POE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113- 115-101240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON TXC351-101240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEWTON GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-101240- Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE GLS TO 40 W POE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113- 115-101240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON TXC351-101240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEWTON GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-101240- Read more

MD 0410 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Areas affected...Central MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101001Z - 101200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and potentially a brief tornado are possible across central Mississippi over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Convective line stretching from northern MS southwestward through central LA has shown a bit more forward propagation over the past hour or so, as this portion of the line becomes more perpendicular to the deep-layer shear vector. The strongest updrafts within the line now exist over central MS, where a few bowing segments currently exist. Recent VAD profile from KDGX sample 220-225 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relatively helicity over the past half hour, which matches well with a small maximum in 0-1 km storm-relatively helicity in the same region on the mesoanalysis. However, low-level stability persists across the region, with recent mesoanalysis and forecast soundings estimating substantial convective inhibition remains in place. Even so, a few damaging gusts may still be able to reach the surface. Additionally, any sustained mesovortex may be able to produce a brief tornado. However, the low-level stability is expected to keep the overall severe potential low, despite the favorable kinematics. ..Mosier/Smith.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN... LAT...LON 31509122 31869092 32329031 32948998 33468978 33678928 33478878 32948883 31818928 31488964 31399023 31509122 Read more