Aggregator

WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CEW TO 10 ESE DHN TO 20 S ABY. ..KERR..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-102340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-073-077-129-133-102340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA WASHINGTON GAC087-131-201-253-102340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GRADY MILLER Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level wave will propagate eastward across the eastern US on D3 - Friday, with high pressure building in across the central US. Another upper-level low will approach the west coast on D4 - Saturday, with weak lee troughing developing across the Plains. This will bring a return of breezy/dry conditions across the high Plains on D4 - Saturday and D5 - Sunday. Low level moisture will also begin to stream northward into the southern Plains on D5 - Sunday ahead of the western trough. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities at this time. Confidence continues to increase for strong lee cyclone development on D6 - Monday and potential for fire weather concerns across the central and southern Plains. Given the favorable pattern, probabilities will need to be added in future outlooks where confidence is highest behind the surface dry line that fuels will be receptive by D6. For now, these details remain low confidence. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level wave will propagate eastward across the eastern US on D3 - Friday, with high pressure building in across the central US. Another upper-level low will approach the west coast on D4 - Saturday, with weak lee troughing developing across the Plains. This will bring a return of breezy/dry conditions across the high Plains on D4 - Saturday and D5 - Sunday. Low level moisture will also begin to stream northward into the southern Plains on D5 - Sunday ahead of the western trough. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities at this time. Confidence continues to increase for strong lee cyclone development on D6 - Monday and potential for fire weather concerns across the central and southern Plains. Given the favorable pattern, probabilities will need to be added in future outlooks where confidence is highest behind the surface dry line that fuels will be receptive by D6. For now, these details remain low confidence. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level wave will propagate eastward across the eastern US on D3 - Friday, with high pressure building in across the central US. Another upper-level low will approach the west coast on D4 - Saturday, with weak lee troughing developing across the Plains. This will bring a return of breezy/dry conditions across the high Plains on D4 - Saturday and D5 - Sunday. Low level moisture will also begin to stream northward into the southern Plains on D5 - Sunday ahead of the western trough. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities at this time. Confidence continues to increase for strong lee cyclone development on D6 - Monday and potential for fire weather concerns across the central and southern Plains. Given the favorable pattern, probabilities will need to be added in future outlooks where confidence is highest behind the surface dry line that fuels will be receptive by D6. For now, these details remain low confidence. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level wave will propagate eastward across the eastern US on D3 - Friday, with high pressure building in across the central US. Another upper-level low will approach the west coast on D4 - Saturday, with weak lee troughing developing across the Plains. This will bring a return of breezy/dry conditions across the high Plains on D4 - Saturday and D5 - Sunday. Low level moisture will also begin to stream northward into the southern Plains on D5 - Sunday ahead of the western trough. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities at this time. Confidence continues to increase for strong lee cyclone development on D6 - Monday and potential for fire weather concerns across the central and southern Plains. Given the favorable pattern, probabilities will need to be added in future outlooks where confidence is highest behind the surface dry line that fuels will be receptive by D6. For now, these details remain low confidence. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level wave will propagate eastward across the eastern US on D3 - Friday, with high pressure building in across the central US. Another upper-level low will approach the west coast on D4 - Saturday, with weak lee troughing developing across the Plains. This will bring a return of breezy/dry conditions across the high Plains on D4 - Saturday and D5 - Sunday. Low level moisture will also begin to stream northward into the southern Plains on D5 - Sunday ahead of the western trough. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities at this time. Confidence continues to increase for strong lee cyclone development on D6 - Monday and potential for fire weather concerns across the central and southern Plains. Given the favorable pattern, probabilities will need to be added in future outlooks where confidence is highest behind the surface dry line that fuels will be receptive by D6. For now, these details remain low confidence. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level wave will propagate eastward across the eastern US on D3 - Friday, with high pressure building in across the central US. Another upper-level low will approach the west coast on D4 - Saturday, with weak lee troughing developing across the Plains. This will bring a return of breezy/dry conditions across the high Plains on D4 - Saturday and D5 - Sunday. Low level moisture will also begin to stream northward into the southern Plains on D5 - Sunday ahead of the western trough. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities at this time. Confidence continues to increase for strong lee cyclone development on D6 - Monday and potential for fire weather concerns across the central and southern Plains. Given the favorable pattern, probabilities will need to be added in future outlooks where confidence is highest behind the surface dry line that fuels will be receptive by D6. For now, these details remain low confidence. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level wave will propagate eastward across the eastern US on D3 - Friday, with high pressure building in across the central US. Another upper-level low will approach the west coast on D4 - Saturday, with weak lee troughing developing across the Plains. This will bring a return of breezy/dry conditions across the high Plains on D4 - Saturday and D5 - Sunday. Low level moisture will also begin to stream northward into the southern Plains on D5 - Sunday ahead of the western trough. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities at this time. Confidence continues to increase for strong lee cyclone development on D6 - Monday and potential for fire weather concerns across the central and southern Plains. Given the favorable pattern, probabilities will need to be added in future outlooks where confidence is highest behind the surface dry line that fuels will be receptive by D6. For now, these details remain low confidence. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level wave will propagate eastward across the eastern US on D3 - Friday, with high pressure building in across the central US. Another upper-level low will approach the west coast on D4 - Saturday, with weak lee troughing developing across the Plains. This will bring a return of breezy/dry conditions across the high Plains on D4 - Saturday and D5 - Sunday. Low level moisture will also begin to stream northward into the southern Plains on D5 - Sunday ahead of the western trough. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities at this time. Confidence continues to increase for strong lee cyclone development on D6 - Monday and potential for fire weather concerns across the central and southern Plains. Given the favorable pattern, probabilities will need to be added in future outlooks where confidence is highest behind the surface dry line that fuels will be receptive by D6. For now, these details remain low confidence. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level wave will propagate eastward across the eastern US on D3 - Friday, with high pressure building in across the central US. Another upper-level low will approach the west coast on D4 - Saturday, with weak lee troughing developing across the Plains. This will bring a return of breezy/dry conditions across the high Plains on D4 - Saturday and D5 - Sunday. Low level moisture will also begin to stream northward into the southern Plains on D5 - Sunday ahead of the western trough. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities at this time. Confidence continues to increase for strong lee cyclone development on D6 - Monday and potential for fire weather concerns across the central and southern Plains. Given the favorable pattern, probabilities will need to be added in future outlooks where confidence is highest behind the surface dry line that fuels will be receptive by D6. For now, these details remain low confidence. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level wave will propagate eastward across the eastern US on D3 - Friday, with high pressure building in across the central US. Another upper-level low will approach the west coast on D4 - Saturday, with weak lee troughing developing across the Plains. This will bring a return of breezy/dry conditions across the high Plains on D4 - Saturday and D5 - Sunday. Low level moisture will also begin to stream northward into the southern Plains on D5 - Sunday ahead of the western trough. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities at this time. Confidence continues to increase for strong lee cyclone development on D6 - Monday and potential for fire weather concerns across the central and southern Plains. Given the favorable pattern, probabilities will need to be added in future outlooks where confidence is highest behind the surface dry line that fuels will be receptive by D6. For now, these details remain low confidence. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level wave will propagate eastward across the eastern US on D3 - Friday, with high pressure building in across the central US. Another upper-level low will approach the west coast on D4 - Saturday, with weak lee troughing developing across the Plains. This will bring a return of breezy/dry conditions across the high Plains on D4 - Saturday and D5 - Sunday. Low level moisture will also begin to stream northward into the southern Plains on D5 - Sunday ahead of the western trough. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities at this time. Confidence continues to increase for strong lee cyclone development on D6 - Monday and potential for fire weather concerns across the central and southern Plains. Given the favorable pattern, probabilities will need to be added in future outlooks where confidence is highest behind the surface dry line that fuels will be receptive by D6. For now, these details remain low confidence. ..Thornton.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0416 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 103... FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0416 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Areas affected...southeast Alabama...southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 103... Valid 102032Z - 102200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible across Tornado Watch 103. The greatest risk will likely remain closer to the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Panhandle in the short term. DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe storms will continue to shift east across the FL Panhandle into far southeast AL and southwest GA the next few hours. Boundary-layer moisture has remained modest, with dewpoints currently around 59-62 F across far southeast AL into southwest GA. Moisture does increase with southward extent across the FL Panhandle to the coast with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints noted. Limited heating through the afternoon also has limited low-level lapse rates and greater destabilization with northward extent. The corridor of greater instability will likely remain confined to the immediate coast and FL Panhandle vicinity. Nevertheless, deep shear remain strong and will likely help to maintain an organized line with eastward extent. Damaging gusts and a tornado or two remain possible the next couple of hours. ..Leitman.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31938538 31868406 31578398 29708433 29468472 29558650 30958633 31558592 31938554 31938538 Read more

WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CEW TO 25 SW DHN TO 45 NNE DHN. ..KERR..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-102240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-073-077-129-131-133-102240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-243-253-273-102240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER CALHOUN CLAY Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORIGA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will continue along portions of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening, and perhaps overnight as well. The potential will exist for a few tornadoes and damaging winds. ...Northern/Northeast Gulf Coastal States... A long-lived MCS continues to move rapidly east across the western Florida Panhandle, likely producing strong or damaging gusts. The primary portion of land is moving quickly east but into a less-unstable air mass currently. With time, additional destabilization is anticipated across the remainder of the FL Panhandle, and perhaps into southern GA. Strong low-level shear will remain present, and will conditionally favor supercell tornado threat. However, current trends with the large ongoing MCS as well as trailing outflow well offshore suggest a somewhat decreased probability of lone supercells through tonight. Still, embedded areas of circulations may develop later within the ongoing line, especially if trailing outflow decelerates and/or deteriorates later tonight. ...Sabine Valley northeastward into TN/KY... Substantial air mass stabilization has occurred over the region, with only small areas of weak instability near the Sabine Valley. Surface observations show intense 30-40 kt easterly outflow across much of MS, with MCS material spreading north across AL and into TN. As such, low probabilities have been removed for many of these areas due to the negating effects of the large Gulf Coast MCS. ..Jewell.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast to Southeast/Tennessee Valley... At late morning, a prominent bowing segment with history of severe/damaging wind gusts continues near the southeast Mississippi/southwest Alabama state line vicinity, with strong convection preceding it (up to 75 miles to its east). The northern half of this convection continues to outpace the influx of richer low-level moisture, with the preceding cloud canopy also somewhat limiting insolation/heating in areas to the north of the immediate coast. A predominant linear/potentially somewhat mixed convective mode is likely to persist regionally into this evening, with general east-northeastward sustenance of the intense bowing convective line and the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells materializing ahead of it, particularly on its southern/southeast flank. Potentially widespread damaging winds remain a viable possibility, along with tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+) coincident with very strong low-level shear (500+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH per regional WSR-88D data such as MOB). The damaging wind/tornado risks are expected to persist into tonight particularly across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia, as the low-level jet nocturnally restrengthens and convection continues to focus/move inland along/south of the effective boundary as reinforced by this morning's/afternoon's MCS. Farther northwest, some strong/locally severe lower-topped storms could occur this afternoon into evening in a steeper mid-level lapse rate regime near the synoptic low and nearby frontal zone from the ArkLaTex toward the Tennessee Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORIGA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will continue along portions of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening, and perhaps overnight as well. The potential will exist for a few tornadoes and damaging winds. ...Northern/Northeast Gulf Coastal States... A long-lived MCS continues to move rapidly east across the western Florida Panhandle, likely producing strong or damaging gusts. The primary portion of land is moving quickly east but into a less-unstable air mass currently. With time, additional destabilization is anticipated across the remainder of the FL Panhandle, and perhaps into southern GA. Strong low-level shear will remain present, and will conditionally favor supercell tornado threat. However, current trends with the large ongoing MCS as well as trailing outflow well offshore suggest a somewhat decreased probability of lone supercells through tonight. Still, embedded areas of circulations may develop later within the ongoing line, especially if trailing outflow decelerates and/or deteriorates later tonight. ...Sabine Valley northeastward into TN/KY... Substantial air mass stabilization has occurred over the region, with only small areas of weak instability near the Sabine Valley. Surface observations show intense 30-40 kt easterly outflow across much of MS, with MCS material spreading north across AL and into TN. As such, low probabilities have been removed for many of these areas due to the negating effects of the large Gulf Coast MCS. ..Jewell.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast to Southeast/Tennessee Valley... At late morning, a prominent bowing segment with history of severe/damaging wind gusts continues near the southeast Mississippi/southwest Alabama state line vicinity, with strong convection preceding it (up to 75 miles to its east). The northern half of this convection continues to outpace the influx of richer low-level moisture, with the preceding cloud canopy also somewhat limiting insolation/heating in areas to the north of the immediate coast. A predominant linear/potentially somewhat mixed convective mode is likely to persist regionally into this evening, with general east-northeastward sustenance of the intense bowing convective line and the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells materializing ahead of it, particularly on its southern/southeast flank. Potentially widespread damaging winds remain a viable possibility, along with tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+) coincident with very strong low-level shear (500+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH per regional WSR-88D data such as MOB). The damaging wind/tornado risks are expected to persist into tonight particularly across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia, as the low-level jet nocturnally restrengthens and convection continues to focus/move inland along/south of the effective boundary as reinforced by this morning's/afternoon's MCS. Farther northwest, some strong/locally severe lower-topped storms could occur this afternoon into evening in a steeper mid-level lapse rate regime near the synoptic low and nearby frontal zone from the ArkLaTex toward the Tennessee Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORIGA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will continue along portions of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening, and perhaps overnight as well. The potential will exist for a few tornadoes and damaging winds. ...Northern/Northeast Gulf Coastal States... A long-lived MCS continues to move rapidly east across the western Florida Panhandle, likely producing strong or damaging gusts. The primary portion of land is moving quickly east but into a less-unstable air mass currently. With time, additional destabilization is anticipated across the remainder of the FL Panhandle, and perhaps into southern GA. Strong low-level shear will remain present, and will conditionally favor supercell tornado threat. However, current trends with the large ongoing MCS as well as trailing outflow well offshore suggest a somewhat decreased probability of lone supercells through tonight. Still, embedded areas of circulations may develop later within the ongoing line, especially if trailing outflow decelerates and/or deteriorates later tonight. ...Sabine Valley northeastward into TN/KY... Substantial air mass stabilization has occurred over the region, with only small areas of weak instability near the Sabine Valley. Surface observations show intense 30-40 kt easterly outflow across much of MS, with MCS material spreading north across AL and into TN. As such, low probabilities have been removed for many of these areas due to the negating effects of the large Gulf Coast MCS. ..Jewell.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast to Southeast/Tennessee Valley... At late morning, a prominent bowing segment with history of severe/damaging wind gusts continues near the southeast Mississippi/southwest Alabama state line vicinity, with strong convection preceding it (up to 75 miles to its east). The northern half of this convection continues to outpace the influx of richer low-level moisture, with the preceding cloud canopy also somewhat limiting insolation/heating in areas to the north of the immediate coast. A predominant linear/potentially somewhat mixed convective mode is likely to persist regionally into this evening, with general east-northeastward sustenance of the intense bowing convective line and the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells materializing ahead of it, particularly on its southern/southeast flank. Potentially widespread damaging winds remain a viable possibility, along with tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+) coincident with very strong low-level shear (500+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH per regional WSR-88D data such as MOB). The damaging wind/tornado risks are expected to persist into tonight particularly across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia, as the low-level jet nocturnally restrengthens and convection continues to focus/move inland along/south of the effective boundary as reinforced by this morning's/afternoon's MCS. Farther northwest, some strong/locally severe lower-topped storms could occur this afternoon into evening in a steeper mid-level lapse rate regime near the synoptic low and nearby frontal zone from the ArkLaTex toward the Tennessee Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORIGA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will continue along portions of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening, and perhaps overnight as well. The potential will exist for a few tornadoes and damaging winds. ...Northern/Northeast Gulf Coastal States... A long-lived MCS continues to move rapidly east across the western Florida Panhandle, likely producing strong or damaging gusts. The primary portion of land is moving quickly east but into a less-unstable air mass currently. With time, additional destabilization is anticipated across the remainder of the FL Panhandle, and perhaps into southern GA. Strong low-level shear will remain present, and will conditionally favor supercell tornado threat. However, current trends with the large ongoing MCS as well as trailing outflow well offshore suggest a somewhat decreased probability of lone supercells through tonight. Still, embedded areas of circulations may develop later within the ongoing line, especially if trailing outflow decelerates and/or deteriorates later tonight. ...Sabine Valley northeastward into TN/KY... Substantial air mass stabilization has occurred over the region, with only small areas of weak instability near the Sabine Valley. Surface observations show intense 30-40 kt easterly outflow across much of MS, with MCS material spreading north across AL and into TN. As such, low probabilities have been removed for many of these areas due to the negating effects of the large Gulf Coast MCS. ..Jewell.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast to Southeast/Tennessee Valley... At late morning, a prominent bowing segment with history of severe/damaging wind gusts continues near the southeast Mississippi/southwest Alabama state line vicinity, with strong convection preceding it (up to 75 miles to its east). The northern half of this convection continues to outpace the influx of richer low-level moisture, with the preceding cloud canopy also somewhat limiting insolation/heating in areas to the north of the immediate coast. A predominant linear/potentially somewhat mixed convective mode is likely to persist regionally into this evening, with general east-northeastward sustenance of the intense bowing convective line and the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells materializing ahead of it, particularly on its southern/southeast flank. Potentially widespread damaging winds remain a viable possibility, along with tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+) coincident with very strong low-level shear (500+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH per regional WSR-88D data such as MOB). The damaging wind/tornado risks are expected to persist into tonight particularly across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia, as the low-level jet nocturnally restrengthens and convection continues to focus/move inland along/south of the effective boundary as reinforced by this morning's/afternoon's MCS. Farther northwest, some strong/locally severe lower-topped storms could occur this afternoon into evening in a steeper mid-level lapse rate regime near the synoptic low and nearby frontal zone from the ArkLaTex toward the Tennessee Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORIGA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will continue along portions of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening, and perhaps overnight as well. The potential will exist for a few tornadoes and damaging winds. ...Northern/Northeast Gulf Coastal States... A long-lived MCS continues to move rapidly east across the western Florida Panhandle, likely producing strong or damaging gusts. The primary portion of land is moving quickly east but into a less-unstable air mass currently. With time, additional destabilization is anticipated across the remainder of the FL Panhandle, and perhaps into southern GA. Strong low-level shear will remain present, and will conditionally favor supercell tornado threat. However, current trends with the large ongoing MCS as well as trailing outflow well offshore suggest a somewhat decreased probability of lone supercells through tonight. Still, embedded areas of circulations may develop later within the ongoing line, especially if trailing outflow decelerates and/or deteriorates later tonight. ...Sabine Valley northeastward into TN/KY... Substantial air mass stabilization has occurred over the region, with only small areas of weak instability near the Sabine Valley. Surface observations show intense 30-40 kt easterly outflow across much of MS, with MCS material spreading north across AL and into TN. As such, low probabilities have been removed for many of these areas due to the negating effects of the large Gulf Coast MCS. ..Jewell.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast to Southeast/Tennessee Valley... At late morning, a prominent bowing segment with history of severe/damaging wind gusts continues near the southeast Mississippi/southwest Alabama state line vicinity, with strong convection preceding it (up to 75 miles to its east). The northern half of this convection continues to outpace the influx of richer low-level moisture, with the preceding cloud canopy also somewhat limiting insolation/heating in areas to the north of the immediate coast. A predominant linear/potentially somewhat mixed convective mode is likely to persist regionally into this evening, with general east-northeastward sustenance of the intense bowing convective line and the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells materializing ahead of it, particularly on its southern/southeast flank. Potentially widespread damaging winds remain a viable possibility, along with tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+) coincident with very strong low-level shear (500+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH per regional WSR-88D data such as MOB). The damaging wind/tornado risks are expected to persist into tonight particularly across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia, as the low-level jet nocturnally restrengthens and convection continues to focus/move inland along/south of the effective boundary as reinforced by this morning's/afternoon's MCS. Farther northwest, some strong/locally severe lower-topped storms could occur this afternoon into evening in a steeper mid-level lapse rate regime near the synoptic low and nearby frontal zone from the ArkLaTex toward the Tennessee Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORIGA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will continue along portions of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening, and perhaps overnight as well. The potential will exist for a few tornadoes and damaging winds. ...Northern/Northeast Gulf Coastal States... A long-lived MCS continues to move rapidly east across the western Florida Panhandle, likely producing strong or damaging gusts. The primary portion of land is moving quickly east but into a less-unstable air mass currently. With time, additional destabilization is anticipated across the remainder of the FL Panhandle, and perhaps into southern GA. Strong low-level shear will remain present, and will conditionally favor supercell tornado threat. However, current trends with the large ongoing MCS as well as trailing outflow well offshore suggest a somewhat decreased probability of lone supercells through tonight. Still, embedded areas of circulations may develop later within the ongoing line, especially if trailing outflow decelerates and/or deteriorates later tonight. ...Sabine Valley northeastward into TN/KY... Substantial air mass stabilization has occurred over the region, with only small areas of weak instability near the Sabine Valley. Surface observations show intense 30-40 kt easterly outflow across much of MS, with MCS material spreading north across AL and into TN. As such, low probabilities have been removed for many of these areas due to the negating effects of the large Gulf Coast MCS. ..Jewell.. 04/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast to Southeast/Tennessee Valley... At late morning, a prominent bowing segment with history of severe/damaging wind gusts continues near the southeast Mississippi/southwest Alabama state line vicinity, with strong convection preceding it (up to 75 miles to its east). The northern half of this convection continues to outpace the influx of richer low-level moisture, with the preceding cloud canopy also somewhat limiting insolation/heating in areas to the north of the immediate coast. A predominant linear/potentially somewhat mixed convective mode is likely to persist regionally into this evening, with general east-northeastward sustenance of the intense bowing convective line and the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells materializing ahead of it, particularly on its southern/southeast flank. Potentially widespread damaging winds remain a viable possibility, along with tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+) coincident with very strong low-level shear (500+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH per regional WSR-88D data such as MOB). The damaging wind/tornado risks are expected to persist into tonight particularly across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia, as the low-level jet nocturnally restrengthens and convection continues to focus/move inland along/south of the effective boundary as reinforced by this morning's/afternoon's MCS. Farther northwest, some strong/locally severe lower-topped storms could occur this afternoon into evening in a steeper mid-level lapse rate regime near the synoptic low and nearby frontal zone from the ArkLaTex toward the Tennessee Valley. Read more