Aggregator

MD 0418 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0418 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 110558Z - 110800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible along the immediate coastal portions of the central and eastern Florida Panhandle. DISCUSSION...More robust thunderstorms have developed across the central FL Panhandle over the past hour or so. A bowing segment recently moved across the region, producing a 50 kt gust at AAF and a few other near-severe gusts at mesonet sites in Franklin County. This band is moving quickly northeastward into a region with greater low-level stability. As a result, despite strong kinematic fields, the potential for damaging gusts to reach the surface will lessen with northward extent. The portion of the line moving into Wakulla County has the greatest potential to produce a few damaging gusts over the next half hour. Another band of strong thunderstorms has developed in the wake of the band moving through the region now, with much of this second band currently offshore. There is some potential for a few damaging gusts, mostly along the immediate coastal areas of Gulf and Franklin Counties, as this second band continues east-northeastward. ..Mosier/Smith.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 29808592 30538541 30768502 30898417 30538350 29858394 29568483 29568582 29808592 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID...AND FAR NORTH NV... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible across parts of the northwest Great Basin vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Northwest Great Basin... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the central CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will remain over parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the 700-mb baroclinic zone farther east across northwest NV and east OR into southwest ID. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop just after peak heating. Moderate southwesterly flow should exist within the meager buoyancy layer between the offshore trough and the mid-level ridge that will become centered over the High Plains. Strong to localized severe wind gusts will be the main threat. Marginally severe hail may occur in a portion of east OR/southwest ID where brief supercell structures are possible, before convection wanes after dusk. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near the Georgian Bay of Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature should be largest at the beginning of the period, and weaken through the day. Surface-based destabilization appears to be very limited, and the severe threat in the east NY vicinity appears too low to warrant an areal delineation. As the northern-stream shortwave impulse translates through the basal portion of the amplified upper trough over the East, cold mid-level temperatures will support isolated to scattered low-topped convection spreading from west to east across parts of the central OH Valley/Cumberland Plateau into VA/NC. Surface-based buoyancy should be scant at most amid decidedly westerly wind profiles. Still, moderate to strong low-level flow may be mixed to the surface and yield locally gusty winds during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID...AND FAR NORTH NV... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible across parts of the northwest Great Basin vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Northwest Great Basin... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the central CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will remain over parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the 700-mb baroclinic zone farther east across northwest NV and east OR into southwest ID. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop just after peak heating. Moderate southwesterly flow should exist within the meager buoyancy layer between the offshore trough and the mid-level ridge that will become centered over the High Plains. Strong to localized severe wind gusts will be the main threat. Marginally severe hail may occur in a portion of east OR/southwest ID where brief supercell structures are possible, before convection wanes after dusk. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near the Georgian Bay of Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature should be largest at the beginning of the period, and weaken through the day. Surface-based destabilization appears to be very limited, and the severe threat in the east NY vicinity appears too low to warrant an areal delineation. As the northern-stream shortwave impulse translates through the basal portion of the amplified upper trough over the East, cold mid-level temperatures will support isolated to scattered low-topped convection spreading from west to east across parts of the central OH Valley/Cumberland Plateau into VA/NC. Surface-based buoyancy should be scant at most amid decidedly westerly wind profiles. Still, moderate to strong low-level flow may be mixed to the surface and yield locally gusty winds during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID...AND FAR NORTH NV... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible across parts of the northwest Great Basin vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Northwest Great Basin... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the central CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will remain over parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the 700-mb baroclinic zone farther east across northwest NV and east OR into southwest ID. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop just after peak heating. Moderate southwesterly flow should exist within the meager buoyancy layer between the offshore trough and the mid-level ridge that will become centered over the High Plains. Strong to localized severe wind gusts will be the main threat. Marginally severe hail may occur in a portion of east OR/southwest ID where brief supercell structures are possible, before convection wanes after dusk. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near the Georgian Bay of Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature should be largest at the beginning of the period, and weaken through the day. Surface-based destabilization appears to be very limited, and the severe threat in the east NY vicinity appears too low to warrant an areal delineation. As the northern-stream shortwave impulse translates through the basal portion of the amplified upper trough over the East, cold mid-level temperatures will support isolated to scattered low-topped convection spreading from west to east across parts of the central OH Valley/Cumberland Plateau into VA/NC. Surface-based buoyancy should be scant at most amid decidedly westerly wind profiles. Still, moderate to strong low-level flow may be mixed to the surface and yield locally gusty winds during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID...AND FAR NORTH NV... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible across parts of the northwest Great Basin vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Northwest Great Basin... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the central CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will remain over parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the 700-mb baroclinic zone farther east across northwest NV and east OR into southwest ID. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop just after peak heating. Moderate southwesterly flow should exist within the meager buoyancy layer between the offshore trough and the mid-level ridge that will become centered over the High Plains. Strong to localized severe wind gusts will be the main threat. Marginally severe hail may occur in a portion of east OR/southwest ID where brief supercell structures are possible, before convection wanes after dusk. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near the Georgian Bay of Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature should be largest at the beginning of the period, and weaken through the day. Surface-based destabilization appears to be very limited, and the severe threat in the east NY vicinity appears too low to warrant an areal delineation. As the northern-stream shortwave impulse translates through the basal portion of the amplified upper trough over the East, cold mid-level temperatures will support isolated to scattered low-topped convection spreading from west to east across parts of the central OH Valley/Cumberland Plateau into VA/NC. Surface-based buoyancy should be scant at most amid decidedly westerly wind profiles. Still, moderate to strong low-level flow may be mixed to the surface and yield locally gusty winds during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST OR...SOUTHWEST ID...AND FAR NORTH NV... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible across parts of the northwest Great Basin vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Northwest Great Basin... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the central CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will remain over parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the 700-mb baroclinic zone farther east across northwest NV and east OR into southwest ID. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop just after peak heating. Moderate southwesterly flow should exist within the meager buoyancy layer between the offshore trough and the mid-level ridge that will become centered over the High Plains. Strong to localized severe wind gusts will be the main threat. Marginally severe hail may occur in a portion of east OR/southwest ID where brief supercell structures are possible, before convection wanes after dusk. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near the Georgian Bay of Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature should be largest at the beginning of the period, and weaken through the day. Surface-based destabilization appears to be very limited, and the severe threat in the east NY vicinity appears too low to warrant an areal delineation. As the northern-stream shortwave impulse translates through the basal portion of the amplified upper trough over the East, cold mid-level temperatures will support isolated to scattered low-topped convection spreading from west to east across parts of the central OH Valley/Cumberland Plateau into VA/NC. Surface-based buoyancy should be scant at most amid decidedly westerly wind profiles. Still, moderate to strong low-level flow may be mixed to the surface and yield locally gusty winds during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more