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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0422 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO EXTREME WESTERN VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0422 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeast Tennessee and eastern Kentucky into extreme western Virginia and western West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 111754Z - 112000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase into the afternoon and with northern extent. The stronger, longer-lasting storms will be capable of large hail and damaging gusts, with a tornado or two possible farther north into KY/WV where low-level shear is stronger. DISCUSSION...Pockets of surface heating, amid widespread clouds and ongoing showers and thunderstorms, is supporting surface temperatures rising into the mid 60s to 70 F amid upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. The surface heating is allowing for the steepening of low-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 500 J/kg in spots. Meanwhile, the approach of a longer-wave mid-level trough is promoting continued deep-layer ascent across the region, that in tandem with deep-layer shear, should only increase with time. As such, the increasing intensity and coverage of storms will be gradual this afternoon, and will be dependent on continued destabilization over eastern portions of the OH Valley. Initial storms may produce gusty winds and hail across northeast TN into eastern KY. However, as storms potentially intensify into the afternoon hours, damaging gusts will become a greater concern as storms move into northeast KY into WV. Given larger, curved low-level hodographs driven by backed flow, the best chance for any tornado development will also be in the northeast KY/WV area later this afternoon. As such, overall greater WW issuance possibilities increase with northward extent this afternoon. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 36258528 37468432 38408310 38718199 38558157 38178134 37688177 36888256 36408301 36128352 35668416 36258528 Read more

MD 0423 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 104... FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...central Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 104... Valid 111754Z - 111930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for gusty winds and a brief tornado may continue locally over the next couple of hours, but new WW issuance is not anticipated. Local WW extensions may be needed for a short time, to cover any lingering threat beyond the scheduled 11/19Z expiration of WW 104. DISCUSSION...Strong storms continue crossing central portions of the Florida Peninsula at this time, within a band extending from north of Daytona Beach to near Sarasota. Storms have shown an overall, gradual decrease in organization, in part likely due to low-level veering of the winds ahead of the band. With little in the way of additional destabilization anticipated ahead of the convection, steady or gradually decreasing severe-weather potential seems likely. Still, a locally stronger storm or two will remain capable of producing a damaging gust or brief tornado this afternoon. ..Goss.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27478254 28708176 29618148 29848082 29488066 28758069 27708162 27478254 Read more

MD 0421 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 104... FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0421 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...central Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 104... Valid 111645Z - 111845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk continues across WW 104. DISCUSSION...As prior severe convection shifts offshore over northeastern Florida, focus for severe weather is reorienting southwestward across north-central and west-central portions of the Peninsula. Here, a band of storms -- including embedded rotating cells -- continues moving inland across the greater Tampa area, where embedded/somewhat transient low-level circulations have been observed via KTBW WSR-88D storm-relative velocity. As modest heating is being hindered by deeper cloud cover, weak/additional destabilization should continue to support stronger storms, which will continue spreading west-to-east across central Florida. Locally damaging wind gusts, and a couple of brief tornadoes, will continue to accompany these storms. ..Goss.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27678310 28958227 29498178 29688085 29128051 27838193 27488282 27678310 Read more

WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N SRQ TO 25 SSW SGJ TO 45 ENE SGJ. ..GOSS..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-057-069-103-105-127-111840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER HILLSBOROUGH LAKE PINELLAS POLK VOLUSIA AMZ454-550-GMZ830-853-111840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM TAMPA BAY WATERS COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N SRQ TO 25 SSW SGJ TO 45 ENE SGJ. ..GOSS..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-057-069-103-105-127-111840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER HILLSBOROUGH LAKE PINELLAS POLK VOLUSIA AMZ454-550-GMZ830-853-111840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM TAMPA BAY WATERS COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N SRQ TO 25 SSW SGJ TO 45 ENE SGJ. ..GOSS..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-057-069-103-105-127-111840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER HILLSBOROUGH LAKE PINELLAS POLK VOLUSIA AMZ454-550-GMZ830-853-111840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM TAMPA BAY WATERS COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N SRQ TO 25 SSW SGJ TO 45 ENE SGJ. ..GOSS..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-057-069-103-105-127-111840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER HILLSBOROUGH LAKE PINELLAS POLK VOLUSIA AMZ454-550-GMZ830-853-111840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM TAMPA BAY WATERS COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N SRQ TO 25 SSW SGJ TO 45 ENE SGJ. ..GOSS..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-057-069-103-105-127-111840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER HILLSBOROUGH LAKE PINELLAS POLK VOLUSIA AMZ454-550-GMZ830-853-111840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM TAMPA BAY WATERS COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 104 TORNADO FL GA CW 111130Z - 111900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 104 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North and Central Florida Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 730 AM until 300 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A pre-frontal broken band of storms will gradually shift east across the watch area through the morning and into the early afternoon. A few supercells and line segments will probably pose some risk for a few tornadoes and damaging gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Brunswick GA to 20 miles south southwest of Saint Petersburg FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Smith Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will shift into the Plains as a large upper trough gradually shifts east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in stable offshore flow. To the west of the upper ridge, a deep upper low will drop south just off the West Coast, with a belt of moderate mid to high level winds from CA into OR/WA/ID. At the surface, a trough will develop during the afternoon from near the OR/ID/NV border into MT, with increasing southerly winds. Midlevel temperatures even well east of the upper low will remain cool, with -18 C at 500 mb common across the region. As such, heating along with increasing midlevel moisture within the southwest flow regime will likely result in scattered storms from northern NV into eastern OR and across southern ID after about 21Z. Forecast soundings during this time reveal over 500 J/kg MUCAPE along with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Given the 40+ kt effective shear especially over northern areas, this should support a few cells or bows capable of locally strong winds and hail nearing severe criteria. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will shift into the Plains as a large upper trough gradually shifts east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in stable offshore flow. To the west of the upper ridge, a deep upper low will drop south just off the West Coast, with a belt of moderate mid to high level winds from CA into OR/WA/ID. At the surface, a trough will develop during the afternoon from near the OR/ID/NV border into MT, with increasing southerly winds. Midlevel temperatures even well east of the upper low will remain cool, with -18 C at 500 mb common across the region. As such, heating along with increasing midlevel moisture within the southwest flow regime will likely result in scattered storms from northern NV into eastern OR and across southern ID after about 21Z. Forecast soundings during this time reveal over 500 J/kg MUCAPE along with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Given the 40+ kt effective shear especially over northern areas, this should support a few cells or bows capable of locally strong winds and hail nearing severe criteria. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will shift into the Plains as a large upper trough gradually shifts east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in stable offshore flow. To the west of the upper ridge, a deep upper low will drop south just off the West Coast, with a belt of moderate mid to high level winds from CA into OR/WA/ID. At the surface, a trough will develop during the afternoon from near the OR/ID/NV border into MT, with increasing southerly winds. Midlevel temperatures even well east of the upper low will remain cool, with -18 C at 500 mb common across the region. As such, heating along with increasing midlevel moisture within the southwest flow regime will likely result in scattered storms from northern NV into eastern OR and across southern ID after about 21Z. Forecast soundings during this time reveal over 500 J/kg MUCAPE along with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Given the 40+ kt effective shear especially over northern areas, this should support a few cells or bows capable of locally strong winds and hail nearing severe criteria. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will shift into the Plains as a large upper trough gradually shifts east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in stable offshore flow. To the west of the upper ridge, a deep upper low will drop south just off the West Coast, with a belt of moderate mid to high level winds from CA into OR/WA/ID. At the surface, a trough will develop during the afternoon from near the OR/ID/NV border into MT, with increasing southerly winds. Midlevel temperatures even well east of the upper low will remain cool, with -18 C at 500 mb common across the region. As such, heating along with increasing midlevel moisture within the southwest flow regime will likely result in scattered storms from northern NV into eastern OR and across southern ID after about 21Z. Forecast soundings during this time reveal over 500 J/kg MUCAPE along with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Given the 40+ kt effective shear especially over northern areas, this should support a few cells or bows capable of locally strong winds and hail nearing severe criteria. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 Read more