Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An upper-level low will approach the west coast on D3 - Saturday, with weak lee troughing developing across the Plains. This will bring a return of breezy/dry conditions across the high Plains on D3 - Saturday and D4 - Sunday. Spotty elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across central New Mexico, but limited coverage (mainly in sustained Critical winds) does not warrant inclusion of probabilities at this time. Confidence is increasing in a period of high impact fire weather conditions across the southern High plains as the western upper-level low ejects into the Plains on D5 - Monday continuing into D6 - Tuesday. ...D5 - D6 (Monday and Tuesday) Southern High Plains... Low level moisture will begin to stream northward into the southern Plains on D4 - Sunday ahead of the western trough. Strong lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the high Plains on D5 - Monday. As a result strengthening surface winds are forecast with potential for dangerous fire weather conditions to develop across the central and southern high Plains behind the surface dry line. Given the favorable pattern, a broad 40 percent area was added with additional 70 percent areas where confidence is highest in Critical fuels. Portions of east-central New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle did receive widespread wetting rainfall in the last 7-14 days. Recent coordination with local partners indicates that fuels across east-central New Mexico have experienced drying since that event and will likely support fire spread potential by D6. Fuels across the Texas Panhandle indicate that further drying can be expected in the coming 48 hours. Fire weather concerns may spread further east into the Texas Panhandle southward into southwestern Texas as the dryline mixes eastward through the afternoon. These areas may need to be adjusted in the coming days. Behind this departing surface low on D6 - Tuesday and D7 - Wednesday, strong westerly flow will persist across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas as another wave of enhanced westerly flow overspreads the Rockies. A 40 percent delineation was added to cover the potential for continued near Critical to Critical conditions. There is some uncertainty in the coverage of Critical winds, which leads to low confidence in higher probabilities at this time. This will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 11 22:06:03 UTC 2024.

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0105 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0105 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0105 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 11 20:03:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... Gradual clearing and warming is taking place ahead of the cold front and deepening surface low, with destabilization spreading north toward the OH River. Cells developing over eastern KY into WV may increase in intensity over the next few hours, and move north/northeast toward OH and western PA eventually. Low-level shear remains favorable for a weak tornado risk with the strongest cells along with a few damaging gusts. See mesoscale discussion 422 for more information. Farther south, a few storms remain over central FL, with isolated severe storms still possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 423. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more