Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will shift into the Plains as a large upper trough gradually shifts east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in stable offshore flow. To the west of the upper ridge, a deep upper low will drop south just off the West Coast, with a belt of moderate mid to high level winds from CA into OR/WA/ID. At the surface, a trough will develop during the afternoon from near the OR/ID/NV border into MT, with increasing southerly winds. Midlevel temperatures even well east of the upper low will remain cool, with -18 C at 500 mb common across the region. As such, heating along with increasing midlevel moisture within the southwest flow regime will likely result in scattered storms from northern NV into eastern OR and across southern ID after about 21Z. Forecast soundings during this time reveal over 500 J/kg MUCAPE along with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Given the 40+ kt effective shear especially over northern areas, this should support a few cells or bows capable of locally strong winds and hail nearing severe criteria. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will shift into the Plains as a large upper trough gradually shifts east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in stable offshore flow. To the west of the upper ridge, a deep upper low will drop south just off the West Coast, with a belt of moderate mid to high level winds from CA into OR/WA/ID. At the surface, a trough will develop during the afternoon from near the OR/ID/NV border into MT, with increasing southerly winds. Midlevel temperatures even well east of the upper low will remain cool, with -18 C at 500 mb common across the region. As such, heating along with increasing midlevel moisture within the southwest flow regime will likely result in scattered storms from northern NV into eastern OR and across southern ID after about 21Z. Forecast soundings during this time reveal over 500 J/kg MUCAPE along with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Given the 40+ kt effective shear especially over northern areas, this should support a few cells or bows capable of locally strong winds and hail nearing severe criteria. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will shift into the Plains as a large upper trough gradually shifts east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in stable offshore flow. To the west of the upper ridge, a deep upper low will drop south just off the West Coast, with a belt of moderate mid to high level winds from CA into OR/WA/ID. At the surface, a trough will develop during the afternoon from near the OR/ID/NV border into MT, with increasing southerly winds. Midlevel temperatures even well east of the upper low will remain cool, with -18 C at 500 mb common across the region. As such, heating along with increasing midlevel moisture within the southwest flow regime will likely result in scattered storms from northern NV into eastern OR and across southern ID after about 21Z. Forecast soundings during this time reveal over 500 J/kg MUCAPE along with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Given the 40+ kt effective shear especially over northern areas, this should support a few cells or bows capable of locally strong winds and hail nearing severe criteria. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will shift into the Plains as a large upper trough gradually shifts east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in stable offshore flow. To the west of the upper ridge, a deep upper low will drop south just off the West Coast, with a belt of moderate mid to high level winds from CA into OR/WA/ID. At the surface, a trough will develop during the afternoon from near the OR/ID/NV border into MT, with increasing southerly winds. Midlevel temperatures even well east of the upper low will remain cool, with -18 C at 500 mb common across the region. As such, heating along with increasing midlevel moisture within the southwest flow regime will likely result in scattered storms from northern NV into eastern OR and across southern ID after about 21Z. Forecast soundings during this time reveal over 500 J/kg MUCAPE along with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Given the 40+ kt effective shear especially over northern areas, this should support a few cells or bows capable of locally strong winds and hail nearing severe criteria. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will shift into the Plains as a large upper trough gradually shifts east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in stable offshore flow. To the west of the upper ridge, a deep upper low will drop south just off the West Coast, with a belt of moderate mid to high level winds from CA into OR/WA/ID. At the surface, a trough will develop during the afternoon from near the OR/ID/NV border into MT, with increasing southerly winds. Midlevel temperatures even well east of the upper low will remain cool, with -18 C at 500 mb common across the region. As such, heating along with increasing midlevel moisture within the southwest flow regime will likely result in scattered storms from northern NV into eastern OR and across southern ID after about 21Z. Forecast soundings during this time reveal over 500 J/kg MUCAPE along with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Given the 40+ kt effective shear especially over northern areas, this should support a few cells or bows capable of locally strong winds and hail nearing severe criteria. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will shift into the Plains as a large upper trough gradually shifts east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in stable offshore flow. To the west of the upper ridge, a deep upper low will drop south just off the West Coast, with a belt of moderate mid to high level winds from CA into OR/WA/ID. At the surface, a trough will develop during the afternoon from near the OR/ID/NV border into MT, with increasing southerly winds. Midlevel temperatures even well east of the upper low will remain cool, with -18 C at 500 mb common across the region. As such, heating along with increasing midlevel moisture within the southwest flow regime will likely result in scattered storms from northern NV into eastern OR and across southern ID after about 21Z. Forecast soundings during this time reveal over 500 J/kg MUCAPE along with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Given the 40+ kt effective shear especially over northern areas, this should support a few cells or bows capable of locally strong winds and hail nearing severe criteria. ..Jewell.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more