SPC Apr 11, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 11, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 11, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 11, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 11, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 11, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 11, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 11, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 104 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW PIE TO 10 SSW GNV TO 60 ESE SSI. ..GOSS..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC017-019-035-053-057-069-083-101-103-105-107-109-119-127- 111640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CITRUS CLAY FLAGLER HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAKE MARION PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ452-454-550-GMZ830-850-853-111640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 104 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW PIE TO 10 SSW GNV TO 60 ESE SSI. ..GOSS..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC017-019-035-053-057-069-083-101-103-105-107-109-119-127- 111640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CITRUS CLAY FLAGLER HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAKE MARION PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ452-454-550-GMZ830-850-853-111640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM Read more

SPC MD 420

1 year 4 months ago
MD 0420 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 104... FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...northern and central Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 104... Valid 111433Z - 111630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues. SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms continues moving eastward across northern Florida, where local severe-weather risk continues. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a loosely organized band of thunderstorms extending from the southeastern Georgia coast southwestward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico west of Tampa. Storms have remained largely sub-severe despite very favorable deep-layer shear, due to an overall lack of appreciable buoyancy. The 12Z TBW RAOB shows a deeply moist airmass, but very weak lapse rates, with several warm layers that hint at subdued updraft acceleration, confirming the character of convection at this time per radar reflectivity. With that said, filtered heating through high cirrus ahead of the convection has allowed heating to commence, with surface temperatures having risen a few degrees over the past 1 to 2 hours. Continued insolation/heating will allow destabilization eventually permit more unimpeded updrafts, and a corresponding increase in convective intensity/organization, aided by the favorable background kinematic environment. As such, local severe risk -- including isolated tornado potential -- should gradually increase over the next couple of hours. ..Goss.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27768404 28948331 29978264 31038152 31068090 29788094 27888228 27568338 27768404 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 104 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW PIE TO 40 WSW JAX TO 15 NE SSI. ..GOSS..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-031-035-041-053-057-069-075-083-101-103- 105-107-109-119-125-127-111540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY MARION PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA AMZ450-452-454-550-GMZ830-850-853-111540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 Read more

SPC MD 419

1 year 4 months ago
MD 0419 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0419 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...Eastern FL Panhandle into Northern FL and Far Southeast GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111054Z - 111300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gust and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible from the eastern Florida Panhandle into Northern Florida and Far Southeast Georgia over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a broken convective line extending from south-central GA southwestward through the far eastern FL Panhandle into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. A few stronger updrafts have been noted within the line, particularly with the cell now over Taylor County. Recent mesoanalysis and forecast soundings suggest that low-level stability remains in place for now, which will likely limit the overall severe potential in the near term. Even so, strong winds are in place (i.e. 50 kt was sampled at 1 km AGL at KVAX), and a few downdrafts may able to penetrate the low-level stable layer. Additional low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the line, contributing to airmass destabilization and a greater potential for surface-based storms, particularly over western portions of northern FL (in the vicinity of CTY). Isolated damaging gust and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible over the next few hours. ..Mosier/Smith.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29958395 30688328 30898245 30328176 29258286 29588359 29958395 Read more

SPC Apr 11, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible in far southern Georgia into central Florida, mainly this morning through early afternoon. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough centered near the AR/MS/TN border with an upstream trough over the Upper Midwest forecast to phase with the Southeast trough. A cyclone near the TN/MS border will deepen as it develops north-northeast into the Lower Great Lakes by early evening. A trailing surface cold front will push east across portions of the Southeast/southern Appalachians during the day, before clearing the Southeast coast by early Friday morning. ...Upper OH River Valley... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast in terms of the magnitude of destabilization across the OH Valley late this morning through the afternoon. This uncertainty is primarily due to low cloud cover and weak capping resulting in scattered showers/low-topped thunderstorm activity and the potential to remain relatively cool in the boundary layer. However, mid-level dry air evident in water-vapor imagery is wrapping through the base of the mid-level low/trough over TN, and this mid-level dry intrusion forecast to spread northeast into portions of the Upper OH Valley. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Florida/Georgia... Ongoing pre-frontal broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms over north FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually shift east across the northern half of the Peninsula through the morning and into the afternoon. The northern rim of rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints) have advected into north FL early this morning. Although lapse rates will remain modest, it appears the richer moisture will contribute to adequate surface-based buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) across the northern half of the Peninsula today. The Jacksonville and Tampa 88D VAD wind profiles are quite strong this morning and will likely remain so through the early afternoon as the larger-scale mid-level trough pivots eastward over the FL Peninsula by early evening. The risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will likely maximize through the midday before the thunderstorm band moves offshore and forcing for ascent gradually abates by late afternoon as the synoptic low lifts well to the north. ...Mid-Atlantic states into Carolinas... A less focused and more conditional severe risk seems evident for the Carolinas later this afternoon and northward into the Mid-Atlantic states this evening as the upper trough encroaches on the general region. A broad warm-air advection regime north of the FL/GA early-day MCS will slowly destabilize today, aided in part by lower 60 deg F dewpoints north, mid to upper 60s south. Long hodographs will favor storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, mainly over parts of western VA, with lower coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 11, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible in far southern Georgia into central Florida, mainly this morning through early afternoon. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough centered near the AR/MS/TN border with an upstream trough over the Upper Midwest forecast to phase with the Southeast trough. A cyclone near the TN/MS border will deepen as it develops north-northeast into the Lower Great Lakes by early evening. A trailing surface cold front will push east across portions of the Southeast/southern Appalachians during the day, before clearing the Southeast coast by early Friday morning. ...Upper OH River Valley... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast in terms of the magnitude of destabilization across the OH Valley late this morning through the afternoon. This uncertainty is primarily due to low cloud cover and weak capping resulting in scattered showers/low-topped thunderstorm activity and the potential to remain relatively cool in the boundary layer. However, mid-level dry air evident in water-vapor imagery is wrapping through the base of the mid-level low/trough over TN, and this mid-level dry intrusion forecast to spread northeast into portions of the Upper OH Valley. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Florida/Georgia... Ongoing pre-frontal broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms over north FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually shift east across the northern half of the Peninsula through the morning and into the afternoon. The northern rim of rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints) have advected into north FL early this morning. Although lapse rates will remain modest, it appears the richer moisture will contribute to adequate surface-based buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) across the northern half of the Peninsula today. The Jacksonville and Tampa 88D VAD wind profiles are quite strong this morning and will likely remain so through the early afternoon as the larger-scale mid-level trough pivots eastward over the FL Peninsula by early evening. The risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will likely maximize through the midday before the thunderstorm band moves offshore and forcing for ascent gradually abates by late afternoon as the synoptic low lifts well to the north. ...Mid-Atlantic states into Carolinas... A less focused and more conditional severe risk seems evident for the Carolinas later this afternoon and northward into the Mid-Atlantic states this evening as the upper trough encroaches on the general region. A broad warm-air advection regime north of the FL/GA early-day MCS will slowly destabilize today, aided in part by lower 60 deg F dewpoints north, mid to upper 60s south. Long hodographs will favor storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, mainly over parts of western VA, with lower coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 11, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible in far southern Georgia into central Florida, mainly this morning through early afternoon. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough centered near the AR/MS/TN border with an upstream trough over the Upper Midwest forecast to phase with the Southeast trough. A cyclone near the TN/MS border will deepen as it develops north-northeast into the Lower Great Lakes by early evening. A trailing surface cold front will push east across portions of the Southeast/southern Appalachians during the day, before clearing the Southeast coast by early Friday morning. ...Upper OH River Valley... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast in terms of the magnitude of destabilization across the OH Valley late this morning through the afternoon. This uncertainty is primarily due to low cloud cover and weak capping resulting in scattered showers/low-topped thunderstorm activity and the potential to remain relatively cool in the boundary layer. However, mid-level dry air evident in water-vapor imagery is wrapping through the base of the mid-level low/trough over TN, and this mid-level dry intrusion forecast to spread northeast into portions of the Upper OH Valley. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Florida/Georgia... Ongoing pre-frontal broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms over north FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually shift east across the northern half of the Peninsula through the morning and into the afternoon. The northern rim of rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints) have advected into north FL early this morning. Although lapse rates will remain modest, it appears the richer moisture will contribute to adequate surface-based buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) across the northern half of the Peninsula today. The Jacksonville and Tampa 88D VAD wind profiles are quite strong this morning and will likely remain so through the early afternoon as the larger-scale mid-level trough pivots eastward over the FL Peninsula by early evening. The risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will likely maximize through the midday before the thunderstorm band moves offshore and forcing for ascent gradually abates by late afternoon as the synoptic low lifts well to the north. ...Mid-Atlantic states into Carolinas... A less focused and more conditional severe risk seems evident for the Carolinas later this afternoon and northward into the Mid-Atlantic states this evening as the upper trough encroaches on the general region. A broad warm-air advection regime north of the FL/GA early-day MCS will slowly destabilize today, aided in part by lower 60 deg F dewpoints north, mid to upper 60s south. Long hodographs will favor storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, mainly over parts of western VA, with lower coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 11, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible in far southern Georgia into central Florida, mainly this morning through early afternoon. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough centered near the AR/MS/TN border with an upstream trough over the Upper Midwest forecast to phase with the Southeast trough. A cyclone near the TN/MS border will deepen as it develops north-northeast into the Lower Great Lakes by early evening. A trailing surface cold front will push east across portions of the Southeast/southern Appalachians during the day, before clearing the Southeast coast by early Friday morning. ...Upper OH River Valley... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast in terms of the magnitude of destabilization across the OH Valley late this morning through the afternoon. This uncertainty is primarily due to low cloud cover and weak capping resulting in scattered showers/low-topped thunderstorm activity and the potential to remain relatively cool in the boundary layer. However, mid-level dry air evident in water-vapor imagery is wrapping through the base of the mid-level low/trough over TN, and this mid-level dry intrusion forecast to spread northeast into portions of the Upper OH Valley. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Florida/Georgia... Ongoing pre-frontal broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms over north FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually shift east across the northern half of the Peninsula through the morning and into the afternoon. The northern rim of rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints) have advected into north FL early this morning. Although lapse rates will remain modest, it appears the richer moisture will contribute to adequate surface-based buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) across the northern half of the Peninsula today. The Jacksonville and Tampa 88D VAD wind profiles are quite strong this morning and will likely remain so through the early afternoon as the larger-scale mid-level trough pivots eastward over the FL Peninsula by early evening. The risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will likely maximize through the midday before the thunderstorm band moves offshore and forcing for ascent gradually abates by late afternoon as the synoptic low lifts well to the north. ...Mid-Atlantic states into Carolinas... A less focused and more conditional severe risk seems evident for the Carolinas later this afternoon and northward into the Mid-Atlantic states this evening as the upper trough encroaches on the general region. A broad warm-air advection regime north of the FL/GA early-day MCS will slowly destabilize today, aided in part by lower 60 deg F dewpoints north, mid to upper 60s south. Long hodographs will favor storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, mainly over parts of western VA, with lower coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 11, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible in far southern Georgia into central Florida, mainly this morning through early afternoon. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough centered near the AR/MS/TN border with an upstream trough over the Upper Midwest forecast to phase with the Southeast trough. A cyclone near the TN/MS border will deepen as it develops north-northeast into the Lower Great Lakes by early evening. A trailing surface cold front will push east across portions of the Southeast/southern Appalachians during the day, before clearing the Southeast coast by early Friday morning. ...Upper OH River Valley... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast in terms of the magnitude of destabilization across the OH Valley late this morning through the afternoon. This uncertainty is primarily due to low cloud cover and weak capping resulting in scattered showers/low-topped thunderstorm activity and the potential to remain relatively cool in the boundary layer. However, mid-level dry air evident in water-vapor imagery is wrapping through the base of the mid-level low/trough over TN, and this mid-level dry intrusion forecast to spread northeast into portions of the Upper OH Valley. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Florida/Georgia... Ongoing pre-frontal broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms over north FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually shift east across the northern half of the Peninsula through the morning and into the afternoon. The northern rim of rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints) have advected into north FL early this morning. Although lapse rates will remain modest, it appears the richer moisture will contribute to adequate surface-based buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) across the northern half of the Peninsula today. The Jacksonville and Tampa 88D VAD wind profiles are quite strong this morning and will likely remain so through the early afternoon as the larger-scale mid-level trough pivots eastward over the FL Peninsula by early evening. The risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will likely maximize through the midday before the thunderstorm band moves offshore and forcing for ascent gradually abates by late afternoon as the synoptic low lifts well to the north. ...Mid-Atlantic states into Carolinas... A less focused and more conditional severe risk seems evident for the Carolinas later this afternoon and northward into the Mid-Atlantic states this evening as the upper trough encroaches on the general region. A broad warm-air advection regime north of the FL/GA early-day MCS will slowly destabilize today, aided in part by lower 60 deg F dewpoints north, mid to upper 60s south. Long hodographs will favor storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, mainly over parts of western VA, with lower coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 11, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible in far southern Georgia into central Florida, mainly this morning through early afternoon. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough centered near the AR/MS/TN border with an upstream trough over the Upper Midwest forecast to phase with the Southeast trough. A cyclone near the TN/MS border will deepen as it develops north-northeast into the Lower Great Lakes by early evening. A trailing surface cold front will push east across portions of the Southeast/southern Appalachians during the day, before clearing the Southeast coast by early Friday morning. ...Upper OH River Valley... Considerable uncertainty remains for this forecast in terms of the magnitude of destabilization across the OH Valley late this morning through the afternoon. This uncertainty is primarily due to low cloud cover and weak capping resulting in scattered showers/low-topped thunderstorm activity and the potential to remain relatively cool in the boundary layer. However, mid-level dry air evident in water-vapor imagery is wrapping through the base of the mid-level low/trough over TN, and this mid-level dry intrusion forecast to spread northeast into portions of the Upper OH Valley. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Florida/Georgia... Ongoing pre-frontal broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms over north FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually shift east across the northern half of the Peninsula through the morning and into the afternoon. The northern rim of rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints) have advected into north FL early this morning. Although lapse rates will remain modest, it appears the richer moisture will contribute to adequate surface-based buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) across the northern half of the Peninsula today. The Jacksonville and Tampa 88D VAD wind profiles are quite strong this morning and will likely remain so through the early afternoon as the larger-scale mid-level trough pivots eastward over the FL Peninsula by early evening. The risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will likely maximize through the midday before the thunderstorm band moves offshore and forcing for ascent gradually abates by late afternoon as the synoptic low lifts well to the north. ...Mid-Atlantic states into Carolinas... A less focused and more conditional severe risk seems evident for the Carolinas later this afternoon and northward into the Mid-Atlantic states this evening as the upper trough encroaches on the general region. A broad warm-air advection regime north of the FL/GA early-day MCS will slowly destabilize today, aided in part by lower 60 deg F dewpoints north, mid to upper 60s south. Long hodographs will favor storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, mainly over parts of western VA, with lower coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/11/2024 Read more