SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 343 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0343 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 343 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BPT TO 30 E LCH TO 20 NW LFT TO 50 ENE LFT. ..BROYLES..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 343 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-045-055-099-101-113-282240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-282240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 343 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0343 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 343 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BPT TO 30 E LCH TO 20 NW LFT TO 50 ENE LFT. ..BROYLES..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 343 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-045-055-099-101-113-282240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-282240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 343 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0343 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 343 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BPT TO 30 E LCH TO 20 NW LFT TO 50 ENE LFT. ..BROYLES..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 343 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-045-055-099-101-113-282240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-282240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 343 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0343 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 343 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BPT TO 30 E LCH TO 20 NW LFT TO 50 ENE LFT. ..BROYLES..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 343 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-045-055-099-101-113-282240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-282240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 343

1 year 3 months ago
WW 343 SEVERE TSTM LA CW 281720Z - 282300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 343 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Louisiana Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms over southeast Texas will track across the watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of significant damaging winds and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Lake Charles LA to 40 miles east southeast of Lafayette LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 342... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29040. ...Hart Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 344 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0344 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 344 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 344 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269- 279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-282240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS FLOYD GARZA HALE HALL HOCKLEY KENT KING LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY PARMER STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0345 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 345 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 345 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-081-103-105-115-135-151-165-173-227-235-317-329-335- 353-371-383-413-415-431-435-443-451-461-465-282240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN COKE CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0346 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 346 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 346 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-061-099-282240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT KIOWA PROWERS KSC067-075-093-129-187-189-282240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT HAMILTON KEARNY MORTON STANTON STEVENS NMC009-021-037-041-059-282240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION Read more

SPC MD 1051

1 year 3 months ago
MD 1051 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1051 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345... Valid 282036Z - 282130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345. Severe hail and wind remain the primary threats, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 65+ kt wind gusts possible. Significant severe wind gusts are most likely with merging storm clusters. DISCUSSION...Multicells with embedded transient supercells have developed over the Trans Pecos in the past few hours, with the KMAF radar showing 50 kft echo tops, and MRMS mosaic radar imagery showing MESH tracks potentially producing hail over 2 inches in diameter in spots. These storms will continue to track eastward amid a buoyant and strongly sheared airmass. The more dominant updrafts will remain capable of producing severe wind and hail for at least a few more hours. A couple stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter. If greater upscale growth into one or more pronounced MCSs occurs, severe gusts will become the main threat, with a few 65+ kt gusts possible. ..Squitieri.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30620327 31360331 32390283 32760170 32630037 31840008 31030007 30160029 29830088 29830201 30620327 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ... Large-scale fire-weather conditions look to be minimal over the next week ... A mid-level ridge across the Intermountain West early in the week will give way to a broadly zonal pattern by late week. No synoptic-scale troughs are expected to traverse through the flow, leaving little mid-to-upper-level support for increased surface winds across the Southwest. That said, smaller-scale perturbations in the zonal flow, particularly those moving along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge, may result in locally elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions on any given day -- especially given the single-digit relative humidity. By early next week (Days 7/8), numerical guidance suggests a larger-scale trough will move through the northern United States. The exact timing/evolution/path of this trough will determine if an increase in synoptic-scale surface winds across the Southwest will occur. Presently, numerical guidance continues to indicate widespread uncertainty in timing/strength/location of this developing trough. Early next week will bear watching in future updates as it pertains to potentially needing probabilities of critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ... Large-scale fire-weather conditions look to be minimal over the next week ... A mid-level ridge across the Intermountain West early in the week will give way to a broadly zonal pattern by late week. No synoptic-scale troughs are expected to traverse through the flow, leaving little mid-to-upper-level support for increased surface winds across the Southwest. That said, smaller-scale perturbations in the zonal flow, particularly those moving along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge, may result in locally elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions on any given day -- especially given the single-digit relative humidity. By early next week (Days 7/8), numerical guidance suggests a larger-scale trough will move through the northern United States. The exact timing/evolution/path of this trough will determine if an increase in synoptic-scale surface winds across the Southwest will occur. Presently, numerical guidance continues to indicate widespread uncertainty in timing/strength/location of this developing trough. Early next week will bear watching in future updates as it pertains to potentially needing probabilities of critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ... Large-scale fire-weather conditions look to be minimal over the next week ... A mid-level ridge across the Intermountain West early in the week will give way to a broadly zonal pattern by late week. No synoptic-scale troughs are expected to traverse through the flow, leaving little mid-to-upper-level support for increased surface winds across the Southwest. That said, smaller-scale perturbations in the zonal flow, particularly those moving along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge, may result in locally elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions on any given day -- especially given the single-digit relative humidity. By early next week (Days 7/8), numerical guidance suggests a larger-scale trough will move through the northern United States. The exact timing/evolution/path of this trough will determine if an increase in synoptic-scale surface winds across the Southwest will occur. Presently, numerical guidance continues to indicate widespread uncertainty in timing/strength/location of this developing trough. Early next week will bear watching in future updates as it pertains to potentially needing probabilities of critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ... Large-scale fire-weather conditions look to be minimal over the next week ... A mid-level ridge across the Intermountain West early in the week will give way to a broadly zonal pattern by late week. No synoptic-scale troughs are expected to traverse through the flow, leaving little mid-to-upper-level support for increased surface winds across the Southwest. That said, smaller-scale perturbations in the zonal flow, particularly those moving along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge, may result in locally elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions on any given day -- especially given the single-digit relative humidity. By early next week (Days 7/8), numerical guidance suggests a larger-scale trough will move through the northern United States. The exact timing/evolution/path of this trough will determine if an increase in synoptic-scale surface winds across the Southwest will occur. Presently, numerical guidance continues to indicate widespread uncertainty in timing/strength/location of this developing trough. Early next week will bear watching in future updates as it pertains to potentially needing probabilities of critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ... Large-scale fire-weather conditions look to be minimal over the next week ... A mid-level ridge across the Intermountain West early in the week will give way to a broadly zonal pattern by late week. No synoptic-scale troughs are expected to traverse through the flow, leaving little mid-to-upper-level support for increased surface winds across the Southwest. That said, smaller-scale perturbations in the zonal flow, particularly those moving along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge, may result in locally elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions on any given day -- especially given the single-digit relative humidity. By early next week (Days 7/8), numerical guidance suggests a larger-scale trough will move through the northern United States. The exact timing/evolution/path of this trough will determine if an increase in synoptic-scale surface winds across the Southwest will occur. Presently, numerical guidance continues to indicate widespread uncertainty in timing/strength/location of this developing trough. Early next week will bear watching in future updates as it pertains to potentially needing probabilities of critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ... Large-scale fire-weather conditions look to be minimal over the next week ... A mid-level ridge across the Intermountain West early in the week will give way to a broadly zonal pattern by late week. No synoptic-scale troughs are expected to traverse through the flow, leaving little mid-to-upper-level support for increased surface winds across the Southwest. That said, smaller-scale perturbations in the zonal flow, particularly those moving along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge, may result in locally elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions on any given day -- especially given the single-digit relative humidity. By early next week (Days 7/8), numerical guidance suggests a larger-scale trough will move through the northern United States. The exact timing/evolution/path of this trough will determine if an increase in synoptic-scale surface winds across the Southwest will occur. Presently, numerical guidance continues to indicate widespread uncertainty in timing/strength/location of this developing trough. Early next week will bear watching in future updates as it pertains to potentially needing probabilities of critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ... Large-scale fire-weather conditions look to be minimal over the next week ... A mid-level ridge across the Intermountain West early in the week will give way to a broadly zonal pattern by late week. No synoptic-scale troughs are expected to traverse through the flow, leaving little mid-to-upper-level support for increased surface winds across the Southwest. That said, smaller-scale perturbations in the zonal flow, particularly those moving along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge, may result in locally elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions on any given day -- especially given the single-digit relative humidity. By early next week (Days 7/8), numerical guidance suggests a larger-scale trough will move through the northern United States. The exact timing/evolution/path of this trough will determine if an increase in synoptic-scale surface winds across the Southwest will occur. Presently, numerical guidance continues to indicate widespread uncertainty in timing/strength/location of this developing trough. Early next week will bear watching in future updates as it pertains to potentially needing probabilities of critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ... Large-scale fire-weather conditions look to be minimal over the next week ... A mid-level ridge across the Intermountain West early in the week will give way to a broadly zonal pattern by late week. No synoptic-scale troughs are expected to traverse through the flow, leaving little mid-to-upper-level support for increased surface winds across the Southwest. That said, smaller-scale perturbations in the zonal flow, particularly those moving along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge, may result in locally elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions on any given day -- especially given the single-digit relative humidity. By early next week (Days 7/8), numerical guidance suggests a larger-scale trough will move through the northern United States. The exact timing/evolution/path of this trough will determine if an increase in synoptic-scale surface winds across the Southwest will occur. Presently, numerical guidance continues to indicate widespread uncertainty in timing/strength/location of this developing trough. Early next week will bear watching in future updates as it pertains to potentially needing probabilities of critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ... Large-scale fire-weather conditions look to be minimal over the next week ... A mid-level ridge across the Intermountain West early in the week will give way to a broadly zonal pattern by late week. No synoptic-scale troughs are expected to traverse through the flow, leaving little mid-to-upper-level support for increased surface winds across the Southwest. That said, smaller-scale perturbations in the zonal flow, particularly those moving along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge, may result in locally elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions on any given day -- especially given the single-digit relative humidity. By early next week (Days 7/8), numerical guidance suggests a larger-scale trough will move through the northern United States. The exact timing/evolution/path of this trough will determine if an increase in synoptic-scale surface winds across the Southwest will occur. Presently, numerical guidance continues to indicate widespread uncertainty in timing/strength/location of this developing trough. Early next week will bear watching in future updates as it pertains to potentially needing probabilities of critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ... Large-scale fire-weather conditions look to be minimal over the next week ... A mid-level ridge across the Intermountain West early in the week will give way to a broadly zonal pattern by late week. No synoptic-scale troughs are expected to traverse through the flow, leaving little mid-to-upper-level support for increased surface winds across the Southwest. That said, smaller-scale perturbations in the zonal flow, particularly those moving along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge, may result in locally elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions on any given day -- especially given the single-digit relative humidity. By early next week (Days 7/8), numerical guidance suggests a larger-scale trough will move through the northern United States. The exact timing/evolution/path of this trough will determine if an increase in synoptic-scale surface winds across the Southwest will occur. Presently, numerical guidance continues to indicate widespread uncertainty in timing/strength/location of this developing trough. Early next week will bear watching in future updates as it pertains to potentially needing probabilities of critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ... Large-scale fire-weather conditions look to be minimal over the next week ... A mid-level ridge across the Intermountain West early in the week will give way to a broadly zonal pattern by late week. No synoptic-scale troughs are expected to traverse through the flow, leaving little mid-to-upper-level support for increased surface winds across the Southwest. That said, smaller-scale perturbations in the zonal flow, particularly those moving along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge, may result in locally elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions on any given day -- especially given the single-digit relative humidity. By early next week (Days 7/8), numerical guidance suggests a larger-scale trough will move through the northern United States. The exact timing/evolution/path of this trough will determine if an increase in synoptic-scale surface winds across the Southwest will occur. Presently, numerical guidance continues to indicate widespread uncertainty in timing/strength/location of this developing trough. Early next week will bear watching in future updates as it pertains to potentially needing probabilities of critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more