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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

MD 1056 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346... FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346... Valid 282305Z - 290100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk will concentrate across central and eastern portions of ww0346 over the next few hours. Hail remains the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Multiple storm mergers, and significant convective overturning, have stabilized portions of the southern TX Panhandle and southeast CO. Over the last hour or so, a significant cluster of storms has evolved over the western OK and northwestern TX Panhandles region. This activity may begin to propagate east into portions of ww0346 that have yet to experience significant convection, especially the northern TX Panhandle into the central OK Panhandle. Large hail is the primary threat. ..Darrow.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34550375 38310364 38310106 34550129 34550375 Read more

WW 0344 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 344 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 344 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269- 279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-290140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS FLOYD GARZA HALE HALL HOCKLEY KENT KING LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY PARMER STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0345 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 345 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 345 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-081-103-105-115-135-151-165-173-227-235-317-329-335- 353-371-383-413-415-431-435-443-451-461-465-290140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN COKE CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0346 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 346 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 346 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-061-099-290140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT KIOWA PROWERS KSC067-075-093-129-187-189-290140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT HAMILTON KEARNY MORTON STANTON STEVENS NMC009-021-037-041-290140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT Read more

WW 0347 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 347 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 347 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-290140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON KSC071-181-199-203-290140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1057 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345... FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 1057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Trans-Pecos and Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345... Valid 282315Z - 290045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat of large hail and severe wind gusts will continue across portions of the Lower Trans-Pecos and Edwards Plateau DISCUSSION...A right moving supercell, along with another deepening updraft on its western flank, will continue to progress eastward into Crockett and Val Verde Counties over the next hour. The downstream convective environment will remain favorable for updraft organization, with deep effective shear around 45-55 kt, and steep mid level lapse rates contributing to around 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Large hail around 1.5 to 2.5" will remain the main severe threat with these thunderstorms. However, severe wind gust potential may increase through the evening hours as a deeper cold pool develops with merging updrafts. ..Barnes.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30010201 30150211 30780225 31100225 31150144 30840081 30700007 30280014 29900042 29820081 29800110 29850172 30060210 30010201 Read more

MD 1057 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345... FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 1057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Trans-Pecos and Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345... Valid 282315Z - 290045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat of large hail and severe wind gusts will continue across portions of the Lower Trans-Pecos and Edwards Plateau DISCUSSION...A right moving supercell, along with another deepening updraft on its western flank, will continue to progress eastward into Crockett and Val Verde Counties over the next hour. The downstream convective environment will remain favorable for updraft organization, with deep effective shear around 45-55 kt, and steep mid level lapse rates contributing to around 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Large hail around 1.5 to 2.5" will remain the main severe threat with these thunderstorms. However, severe wind gust potential may increase through the evening hours as a deeper cold pool develops with merging updrafts. ..Barnes.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30010201 30150211 30780225 31100225 31150144 30840081 30700007 30280014 29900042 29820081 29800110 29850172 30060210 30010201 Read more

MD 1056 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346... FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346... Valid 282305Z - 290100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk will concentrate across central and eastern portions of ww0346 over the next few hours. Hail remains the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Multiple storm mergers, and significant convective overturning, have stabilized portions of the southern TX Panhandle and southeast CO. Over the last hour or so, a significant cluster of storms has evolved over the western OK and northwestern TX Panhandles region. This activity may begin to propagate east into portions of ww0346 that have yet to experience significant convection, especially the northern TX Panhandle into the central OK Panhandle. Large hail is the primary threat. ..Darrow.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34550375 38310364 38310106 34550129 34550375 Read more

WW 0344 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 344 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 344 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269- 279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-290040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS FLOYD GARZA HALE HALL HOCKLEY KENT KING LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY PARMER STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 344 TORNADO TX 281845Z - 290200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 344 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly developing along a boundary near the TX/NM border. These storms will spread eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of very large hail and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Plainview TX to 45 miles south of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 342...WW 343... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0345 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 345 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 345 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-081-103-105-115-135-151-165-173-227-235-317-329-335- 353-371-383-413-415-431-435-443-451-461-465-290040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN COKE CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1055 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1055 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0545 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 282245Z - 282345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe risk is increasing across portions of eastern CO into western KS. Large hail is the primary threat and a severe thunderstorm watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer lapse rates have steepened significantly across the central High Plains late this afternoon. Southeasterly low-level flow has forced mid 50s surface dew points into eastern CO and inhibition is now negligible. Scattered thunderstorms are now evolving along the northern edge of an instability axis characterized by 1500 J/kg MLCAPE within a modestly sheared environment. Hail is likely occurring with the most robust updrafts and this activity should spread southeast into portion of western KS, just north of ww0346. Some consideration is being given to a new severe thunderstorm watch across this region. ..Darrow/Smith.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39840296 39000069 37890110 38760375 39840296 Read more

WW 345 SEVERE TSTM TX 281910Z - 290200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 345 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify through the afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Big Spring TX to 145 miles south southeast of Midland TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 342...WW 343...WW 344... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0346 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 346 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CAO TO 25 NE CAO TO 20 NNW SPD TO 20 N LHX. ..BROYLES..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 346 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-061-099-290040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT KIOWA PROWERS KSC067-075-093-129-187-189-290040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT HAMILTON KEARNY MORTON STANTON STEVENS NMC009-021-037-041-290040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT Read more

WW 346 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 281935Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 346 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Southwest Kansas Eastern New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of northeast NM, and along an old boundary extending southward. These storms will spread eastward through the afternoon and evening, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of Lamar CO to 65 miles southwest of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 342...WW 343...WW 344...WW 345... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0347 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 347 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 347 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-290040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON KSC071-181-199-203-290040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 347 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 282305Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 347 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify this afternoon into the evening. Large hail and localized severe gusts will be the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest of Burlington CO to 40 miles southeast of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 344...WW 345...WW 346... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Smith Read more