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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the northern stream, one moving southeastward across the Upper Midwest and another progressing eastward through the Pacific Northwest. Full-latitude shortwave ridging exists between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into central Saskatchewan. Eastern shortwave trough is forecast to pivot more eastward as it moves into the OH Valley before then continuing eastward throughout the day through the northern Mid-Atlantic States. Thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of this system from the middle OH Valley through the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. A damaging gust or two is possible with these storms, but a predominantly multicellular mode and weak vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. Farther west, the Pacific Northwest shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. As it does, lee troughing will sharpen across the northern High Plains, with eventual cyclogenesis anticipated. The resultant surface low is then forecast to track northeastward across eastern MT and western ND late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this shortwave and attendant surface low as well as down the lee trough across the central and southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the approaching shortwave trough from southwest MT into northwest/north-central WY and southeast MT. In this region, strong boundary-layer mixing and increasing mid-level moisture will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the approaching wave. Buoyancy will be modest, but the high-based character of the storms could still result in strong outflow capable of producing damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough as well, where strong heating, moderate low-level moisture and low-level convergence will support convective initiation. A relatively narrow axis of destabilization is anticipated across the western Dakotas, where a storm could become strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. The eastern extent of the severe threat will be limited by diminishing buoyancy into the central Dakotas. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Strong heating and low-level moisture advection will support airmass destabilization across the central and southern High Plains. Persistent low-level convergence coupled with glancing large-scale ascent is expected to result in convective initiation by the late afternoon/early evening. Highest coverage is expected across the central High Plains, with weakening large-scale ascent with southern extent likely limiting coverage. Large hail is possible with initial development, but outflow-dominant storm structures are likely, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Central/Southeast TX into Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorms may still be ongoing across central TX this morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection across remnant outflow. Given the weak large-scale ascent and potential presence of a convectively generated vorticity maximum, the evolution of these early morning storms is uncertain. Some guidance suggests there is potential for an MCS to develop as the vorticity maximum moves into the moist airmass across central TX. Other guidance shows development along the northeast and southern periphery of the vorticity maximum, but with little linear organization. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeasterly surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts with any mature convection. However, the uncertainty on convective evolution and resulting coverage precludes upgrading probabilities across the region with this outlook. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the northern stream, one moving southeastward across the Upper Midwest and another progressing eastward through the Pacific Northwest. Full-latitude shortwave ridging exists between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into central Saskatchewan. Eastern shortwave trough is forecast to pivot more eastward as it moves into the OH Valley before then continuing eastward throughout the day through the northern Mid-Atlantic States. Thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of this system from the middle OH Valley through the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. A damaging gust or two is possible with these storms, but a predominantly multicellular mode and weak vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. Farther west, the Pacific Northwest shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. As it does, lee troughing will sharpen across the northern High Plains, with eventual cyclogenesis anticipated. The resultant surface low is then forecast to track northeastward across eastern MT and western ND late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this shortwave and attendant surface low as well as down the lee trough across the central and southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the approaching shortwave trough from southwest MT into northwest/north-central WY and southeast MT. In this region, strong boundary-layer mixing and increasing mid-level moisture will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the approaching wave. Buoyancy will be modest, but the high-based character of the storms could still result in strong outflow capable of producing damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough as well, where strong heating, moderate low-level moisture and low-level convergence will support convective initiation. A relatively narrow axis of destabilization is anticipated across the western Dakotas, where a storm could become strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. The eastern extent of the severe threat will be limited by diminishing buoyancy into the central Dakotas. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Strong heating and low-level moisture advection will support airmass destabilization across the central and southern High Plains. Persistent low-level convergence coupled with glancing large-scale ascent is expected to result in convective initiation by the late afternoon/early evening. Highest coverage is expected across the central High Plains, with weakening large-scale ascent with southern extent likely limiting coverage. Large hail is possible with initial development, but outflow-dominant storm structures are likely, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Central/Southeast TX into Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorms may still be ongoing across central TX this morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection across remnant outflow. Given the weak large-scale ascent and potential presence of a convectively generated vorticity maximum, the evolution of these early morning storms is uncertain. Some guidance suggests there is potential for an MCS to develop as the vorticity maximum moves into the moist airmass across central TX. Other guidance shows development along the northeast and southern periphery of the vorticity maximum, but with little linear organization. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeasterly surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts with any mature convection. However, the uncertainty on convective evolution and resulting coverage precludes upgrading probabilities across the region with this outlook. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the northern stream, one moving southeastward across the Upper Midwest and another progressing eastward through the Pacific Northwest. Full-latitude shortwave ridging exists between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into central Saskatchewan. Eastern shortwave trough is forecast to pivot more eastward as it moves into the OH Valley before then continuing eastward throughout the day through the northern Mid-Atlantic States. Thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of this system from the middle OH Valley through the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. A damaging gust or two is possible with these storms, but a predominantly multicellular mode and weak vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. Farther west, the Pacific Northwest shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. As it does, lee troughing will sharpen across the northern High Plains, with eventual cyclogenesis anticipated. The resultant surface low is then forecast to track northeastward across eastern MT and western ND late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this shortwave and attendant surface low as well as down the lee trough across the central and southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the approaching shortwave trough from southwest MT into northwest/north-central WY and southeast MT. In this region, strong boundary-layer mixing and increasing mid-level moisture will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the approaching wave. Buoyancy will be modest, but the high-based character of the storms could still result in strong outflow capable of producing damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough as well, where strong heating, moderate low-level moisture and low-level convergence will support convective initiation. A relatively narrow axis of destabilization is anticipated across the western Dakotas, where a storm could become strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. The eastern extent of the severe threat will be limited by diminishing buoyancy into the central Dakotas. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Strong heating and low-level moisture advection will support airmass destabilization across the central and southern High Plains. Persistent low-level convergence coupled with glancing large-scale ascent is expected to result in convective initiation by the late afternoon/early evening. Highest coverage is expected across the central High Plains, with weakening large-scale ascent with southern extent likely limiting coverage. Large hail is possible with initial development, but outflow-dominant storm structures are likely, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Central/Southeast TX into Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorms may still be ongoing across central TX this morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection across remnant outflow. Given the weak large-scale ascent and potential presence of a convectively generated vorticity maximum, the evolution of these early morning storms is uncertain. Some guidance suggests there is potential for an MCS to develop as the vorticity maximum moves into the moist airmass across central TX. Other guidance shows development along the northeast and southern periphery of the vorticity maximum, but with little linear organization. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeasterly surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts with any mature convection. However, the uncertainty on convective evolution and resulting coverage precludes upgrading probabilities across the region with this outlook. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the northern stream, one moving southeastward across the Upper Midwest and another progressing eastward through the Pacific Northwest. Full-latitude shortwave ridging exists between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into central Saskatchewan. Eastern shortwave trough is forecast to pivot more eastward as it moves into the OH Valley before then continuing eastward throughout the day through the northern Mid-Atlantic States. Thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of this system from the middle OH Valley through the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. A damaging gust or two is possible with these storms, but a predominantly multicellular mode and weak vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. Farther west, the Pacific Northwest shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. As it does, lee troughing will sharpen across the northern High Plains, with eventual cyclogenesis anticipated. The resultant surface low is then forecast to track northeastward across eastern MT and western ND late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this shortwave and attendant surface low as well as down the lee trough across the central and southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the approaching shortwave trough from southwest MT into northwest/north-central WY and southeast MT. In this region, strong boundary-layer mixing and increasing mid-level moisture will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the approaching wave. Buoyancy will be modest, but the high-based character of the storms could still result in strong outflow capable of producing damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough as well, where strong heating, moderate low-level moisture and low-level convergence will support convective initiation. A relatively narrow axis of destabilization is anticipated across the western Dakotas, where a storm could become strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. The eastern extent of the severe threat will be limited by diminishing buoyancy into the central Dakotas. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Strong heating and low-level moisture advection will support airmass destabilization across the central and southern High Plains. Persistent low-level convergence coupled with glancing large-scale ascent is expected to result in convective initiation by the late afternoon/early evening. Highest coverage is expected across the central High Plains, with weakening large-scale ascent with southern extent likely limiting coverage. Large hail is possible with initial development, but outflow-dominant storm structures are likely, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Central/Southeast TX into Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorms may still be ongoing across central TX this morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection across remnant outflow. Given the weak large-scale ascent and potential presence of a convectively generated vorticity maximum, the evolution of these early morning storms is uncertain. Some guidance suggests there is potential for an MCS to develop as the vorticity maximum moves into the moist airmass across central TX. Other guidance shows development along the northeast and southern periphery of the vorticity maximum, but with little linear organization. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeasterly surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts with any mature convection. However, the uncertainty on convective evolution and resulting coverage precludes upgrading probabilities across the region with this outlook. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the northern stream, one moving southeastward across the Upper Midwest and another progressing eastward through the Pacific Northwest. Full-latitude shortwave ridging exists between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into central Saskatchewan. Eastern shortwave trough is forecast to pivot more eastward as it moves into the OH Valley before then continuing eastward throughout the day through the northern Mid-Atlantic States. Thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of this system from the middle OH Valley through the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. A damaging gust or two is possible with these storms, but a predominantly multicellular mode and weak vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. Farther west, the Pacific Northwest shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. As it does, lee troughing will sharpen across the northern High Plains, with eventual cyclogenesis anticipated. The resultant surface low is then forecast to track northeastward across eastern MT and western ND late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this shortwave and attendant surface low as well as down the lee trough across the central and southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the approaching shortwave trough from southwest MT into northwest/north-central WY and southeast MT. In this region, strong boundary-layer mixing and increasing mid-level moisture will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the approaching wave. Buoyancy will be modest, but the high-based character of the storms could still result in strong outflow capable of producing damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough as well, where strong heating, moderate low-level moisture and low-level convergence will support convective initiation. A relatively narrow axis of destabilization is anticipated across the western Dakotas, where a storm could become strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. The eastern extent of the severe threat will be limited by diminishing buoyancy into the central Dakotas. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Strong heating and low-level moisture advection will support airmass destabilization across the central and southern High Plains. Persistent low-level convergence coupled with glancing large-scale ascent is expected to result in convective initiation by the late afternoon/early evening. Highest coverage is expected across the central High Plains, with weakening large-scale ascent with southern extent likely limiting coverage. Large hail is possible with initial development, but outflow-dominant storm structures are likely, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Central/Southeast TX into Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorms may still be ongoing across central TX this morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection across remnant outflow. Given the weak large-scale ascent and potential presence of a convectively generated vorticity maximum, the evolution of these early morning storms is uncertain. Some guidance suggests there is potential for an MCS to develop as the vorticity maximum moves into the moist airmass across central TX. Other guidance shows development along the northeast and southern periphery of the vorticity maximum, but with little linear organization. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeasterly surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts with any mature convection. However, the uncertainty on convective evolution and resulting coverage precludes upgrading probabilities across the region with this outlook. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the northern stream, one moving southeastward across the Upper Midwest and another progressing eastward through the Pacific Northwest. Full-latitude shortwave ridging exists between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into central Saskatchewan. Eastern shortwave trough is forecast to pivot more eastward as it moves into the OH Valley before then continuing eastward throughout the day through the northern Mid-Atlantic States. Thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of this system from the middle OH Valley through the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. A damaging gust or two is possible with these storms, but a predominantly multicellular mode and weak vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. Farther west, the Pacific Northwest shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. As it does, lee troughing will sharpen across the northern High Plains, with eventual cyclogenesis anticipated. The resultant surface low is then forecast to track northeastward across eastern MT and western ND late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this shortwave and attendant surface low as well as down the lee trough across the central and southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the approaching shortwave trough from southwest MT into northwest/north-central WY and southeast MT. In this region, strong boundary-layer mixing and increasing mid-level moisture will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the approaching wave. Buoyancy will be modest, but the high-based character of the storms could still result in strong outflow capable of producing damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough as well, where strong heating, moderate low-level moisture and low-level convergence will support convective initiation. A relatively narrow axis of destabilization is anticipated across the western Dakotas, where a storm could become strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. The eastern extent of the severe threat will be limited by diminishing buoyancy into the central Dakotas. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Strong heating and low-level moisture advection will support airmass destabilization across the central and southern High Plains. Persistent low-level convergence coupled with glancing large-scale ascent is expected to result in convective initiation by the late afternoon/early evening. Highest coverage is expected across the central High Plains, with weakening large-scale ascent with southern extent likely limiting coverage. Large hail is possible with initial development, but outflow-dominant storm structures are likely, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Central/Southeast TX into Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorms may still be ongoing across central TX this morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection across remnant outflow. Given the weak large-scale ascent and potential presence of a convectively generated vorticity maximum, the evolution of these early morning storms is uncertain. Some guidance suggests there is potential for an MCS to develop as the vorticity maximum moves into the moist airmass across central TX. Other guidance shows development along the northeast and southern periphery of the vorticity maximum, but with little linear organization. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeasterly surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts with any mature convection. However, the uncertainty on convective evolution and resulting coverage precludes upgrading probabilities across the region with this outlook. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the northern stream, one moving southeastward across the Upper Midwest and another progressing eastward through the Pacific Northwest. Full-latitude shortwave ridging exists between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into central Saskatchewan. Eastern shortwave trough is forecast to pivot more eastward as it moves into the OH Valley before then continuing eastward throughout the day through the northern Mid-Atlantic States. Thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of this system from the middle OH Valley through the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. A damaging gust or two is possible with these storms, but a predominantly multicellular mode and weak vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. Farther west, the Pacific Northwest shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. As it does, lee troughing will sharpen across the northern High Plains, with eventual cyclogenesis anticipated. The resultant surface low is then forecast to track northeastward across eastern MT and western ND late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this shortwave and attendant surface low as well as down the lee trough across the central and southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the approaching shortwave trough from southwest MT into northwest/north-central WY and southeast MT. In this region, strong boundary-layer mixing and increasing mid-level moisture will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the approaching wave. Buoyancy will be modest, but the high-based character of the storms could still result in strong outflow capable of producing damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough as well, where strong heating, moderate low-level moisture and low-level convergence will support convective initiation. A relatively narrow axis of destabilization is anticipated across the western Dakotas, where a storm could become strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. The eastern extent of the severe threat will be limited by diminishing buoyancy into the central Dakotas. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Strong heating and low-level moisture advection will support airmass destabilization across the central and southern High Plains. Persistent low-level convergence coupled with glancing large-scale ascent is expected to result in convective initiation by the late afternoon/early evening. Highest coverage is expected across the central High Plains, with weakening large-scale ascent with southern extent likely limiting coverage. Large hail is possible with initial development, but outflow-dominant storm structures are likely, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Central/Southeast TX into Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorms may still be ongoing across central TX this morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection across remnant outflow. Given the weak large-scale ascent and potential presence of a convectively generated vorticity maximum, the evolution of these early morning storms is uncertain. Some guidance suggests there is potential for an MCS to develop as the vorticity maximum moves into the moist airmass across central TX. Other guidance shows development along the northeast and southern periphery of the vorticity maximum, but with little linear organization. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeasterly surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts with any mature convection. However, the uncertainty on convective evolution and resulting coverage precludes upgrading probabilities across the region with this outlook. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the northern stream, one moving southeastward across the Upper Midwest and another progressing eastward through the Pacific Northwest. Full-latitude shortwave ridging exists between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into central Saskatchewan. Eastern shortwave trough is forecast to pivot more eastward as it moves into the OH Valley before then continuing eastward throughout the day through the northern Mid-Atlantic States. Thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of this system from the middle OH Valley through the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. A damaging gust or two is possible with these storms, but a predominantly multicellular mode and weak vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. Farther west, the Pacific Northwest shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. As it does, lee troughing will sharpen across the northern High Plains, with eventual cyclogenesis anticipated. The resultant surface low is then forecast to track northeastward across eastern MT and western ND late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this shortwave and attendant surface low as well as down the lee trough across the central and southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the approaching shortwave trough from southwest MT into northwest/north-central WY and southeast MT. In this region, strong boundary-layer mixing and increasing mid-level moisture will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the approaching wave. Buoyancy will be modest, but the high-based character of the storms could still result in strong outflow capable of producing damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough as well, where strong heating, moderate low-level moisture and low-level convergence will support convective initiation. A relatively narrow axis of destabilization is anticipated across the western Dakotas, where a storm could become strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. The eastern extent of the severe threat will be limited by diminishing buoyancy into the central Dakotas. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Strong heating and low-level moisture advection will support airmass destabilization across the central and southern High Plains. Persistent low-level convergence coupled with glancing large-scale ascent is expected to result in convective initiation by the late afternoon/early evening. Highest coverage is expected across the central High Plains, with weakening large-scale ascent with southern extent likely limiting coverage. Large hail is possible with initial development, but outflow-dominant storm structures are likely, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Central/Southeast TX into Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorms may still be ongoing across central TX this morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection across remnant outflow. Given the weak large-scale ascent and potential presence of a convectively generated vorticity maximum, the evolution of these early morning storms is uncertain. Some guidance suggests there is potential for an MCS to develop as the vorticity maximum moves into the moist airmass across central TX. Other guidance shows development along the northeast and southern periphery of the vorticity maximum, but with little linear organization. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeasterly surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts with any mature convection. However, the uncertainty on convective evolution and resulting coverage precludes upgrading probabilities across the region with this outlook. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/29/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue May 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

MD 1062 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348... FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Deep South Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 348... Valid 290314Z - 290515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 348 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread across central into southern portions of ww0348 over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave trough is progressing across the southern High Plains and this feature is now turning southeast within broader northwesterly flow. Strong surface heating and orographic influences allowed multiple thunderstorm clusters to evolve across southwest TX/northeast Mexico late this afternoon/early evening. This activity has grown upscale and is now a mature MCS that is propagating toward deep south TX. Leading edge of this activity is surging through Webb/Zapata Counties along the instability axis characterized by MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg. While 00z soundings from CRP/BRO where both capped this evening, it appears adequate northwesterly mid-level flow exists at this latitude for this complex to advance a considerable more distance before weakening. Damaging winds and hail remain likely with this MCS. ..Darrow.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 26089917 29100027 29119878 26089772 26089917 Read more

WW 0348 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 348 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S LRD TO 50 ESE LRD TO 30 SSE COT TO 40 ENE COT. ..SPC..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BRO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 348 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-283-311-427-505-290540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS LA SALLE MCMULLEN STARR ZAPATA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0348 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 348 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S LRD TO 50 ESE LRD TO 30 SSE COT TO 40 ENE COT. ..SPC..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BRO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 348 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-283-311-427-505-290540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS LA SALLE MCMULLEN STARR ZAPATA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0348 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 348 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LRD TO 15 NE LRD TO 10 WSW COT TO 45 NE COT. ..SPC..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BRO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 348 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-283-311-427-479-505-290440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS LA SALLE MCMULLEN STARR WEBB ZAPATA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1061 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 1061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0833 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...The Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290133Z - 290300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms will continue across the Edwards Plateau over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has developed near a localized surface convergence axis this evening. Easterly surface inflow persists across central and south Texas, which should continue to aid in updraft maintenance. The current mesoscale environment remains favorable for thunderstorm organization given 55-60 kt of deep layer shear via SJT VAD profile. The current air mass is relatively buoyant as well. However, further east CINH increases into the Hill Country. Confidence is low regarding the evolution of this cluster, but any of the stronger updrafts may produce hail near 1-1.75" in diameter through nightfall. ..Barnes/Smith.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29970048 30060051 30480055 30769988 30769931 30499895 30269883 29439878 29209901 29389980 29700018 29970048 Read more

WW 0348 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 348 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE DRT TO 45 ENE COT. ..MOORE..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BRO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 348 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-127-131-215-247-249-283-311-427-479-505-290340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DIMMIT DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS LA SALLE MCMULLEN STARR WEBB ZAPATA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1060 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1060 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Rio Grande Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 290047Z - 290215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts near 60-70 mph and marginally severe hail will accompany a developing MCS through the late evening hours. DISCUSSION...Several robust updrafts, and a couple of supercells, will continue moving eastward off the higher terrain of Chihuahua Mexico. Cell mergers appear likely, and the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance considering easterly surface winds around 15 to 20 kt. Convergence zone balance is anticipated between this surface flow and westerly 0-3 km shear vectors. In addition, a very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place across south Texas. ..Barnes/Smith.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28910078 29130042 29099943 28639880 26759832 26259860 26429908 27049942 27549949 27809984 28110007 28910078 Read more

MD 1059 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1059 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Southern Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290006Z - 290200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and gusty winds may accompany convection this evening. DISCUSSION...Convection that developed across the TX Panhandle late this afternoon has evolved into a squall line that is now propagating into the western parts of OK and northwest TX. A modest cold pool has formed in the wake of this activity which appears to be aided by a weak short-wave trough progressing through the ridge. With the LLJ expected to remain focused across the southern High Plains, and much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK, this activity is not expected to be particularly strong as it advances east. Some hail could approach severe levels, otherwise gusty winds are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Smith.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33799990 36000028 35909922 33979901 33799990 Read more

WW 0348 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 348 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BRO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 348 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-127-131-163-215-247-249-283-311-427-479-505-507-290240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DIMMIT DUVAL FRIO HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS LA SALLE MCMULLEN STARR WEBB ZAPATA ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0345 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 345 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE 6R6 TO 20 NNE HOB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061 ..MOORE..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 345 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-081-103-105-115-135-151-165-173-227-235-317-329-335- 353-383-413-415-431-435-443-451-461-465-290240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN COKE CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN REAGAN SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0345 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 345 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE 6R6 TO 20 NNE HOB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061 ..MOORE..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 345 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-081-103-105-115-135-151-165-173-227-235-317-329-335- 353-383-413-415-431-435-443-451-461-465-290240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN COKE CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN REAGAN SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more