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WW 0347 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 347 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE LAA TO 25 S ITR TO 40 SSE AKO. ..MOORE..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 347 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC063-290240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON KSC071-181-199-203-290240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0347 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 347 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE LAA TO 25 S ITR TO 40 SSE AKO. ..MOORE..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 347 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC063-290240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON KSC071-181-199-203-290240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 347 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 282305Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 347 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify this afternoon into the evening. Large hail and localized severe gusts will be the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest of Burlington CO to 40 miles southeast of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 344...WW 345...WW 346... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Smith Read more

MD 1058 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 344...345... FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1058 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Portions of West Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 344...345... Valid 290003Z - 290130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 344, 345 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of large hail near 2-3" in diameter, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will continue across portions of West Texas through sunset. DISCUSSION...A few discrete supercells from west of Lubbock to just southeast of Tahoka will continue to progress east and southeastward through the early evening hours. Several large hail reports have been noted with these thunderstorms, with nearly a 5" hail stone observed northwest of Levelland. The environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. However, as the evening progresses, maximum hail sizes should decrease with waning buoyancy. ..Barnes.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32940245 33330266 33860281 33930248 34070192 34030136 33670001 33020004 32390079 32400194 32940245 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

MD 1056 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346... FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346... Valid 282305Z - 290100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk will concentrate across central and eastern portions of ww0346 over the next few hours. Hail remains the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Multiple storm mergers, and significant convective overturning, have stabilized portions of the southern TX Panhandle and southeast CO. Over the last hour or so, a significant cluster of storms has evolved over the western OK and northwestern TX Panhandles region. This activity may begin to propagate east into portions of ww0346 that have yet to experience significant convection, especially the northern TX Panhandle into the central OK Panhandle. Large hail is the primary threat. ..Darrow.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34550375 38310364 38310106 34550129 34550375 Read more

WW 0344 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 344 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 344 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269- 279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-290140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS FLOYD GARZA HALE HALL HOCKLEY KENT KING LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY PARMER STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more