SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 1046

1 year 3 months ago
MD 1046 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281832Z - 282000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase through the afternoon, with a possibly more rapid uptick in storm intensification for cells interacting with an outflow boundary. These storms will initially have a damaging gust/hail threat, though a tornado cannot be ruled out with storms interacting with the boundary. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Rapidly deepening CU have developed over the Trans Pecos region in Texas, atop a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. Based on the latest RAP forecast soundings, the boundary layer extends to somewhere between 600-500 mb, so convective initiation will result in high-based thunderstorms. Given the 9-10+ C/km low-level lapse rates in the boundary layer, any of the more intense storms that form could produce dry downbursts, and a dry microburst capable of 65+ kt gusts cannot be completely ruled out. As the storms progress eastward, they will move into an increasingly moister and more unstable airmass. At the same time, they will interact with a southwestward-moving outflow boundary generated by an earlier MCS. Enhanced lift along this boundary may support an uptick in thunderstorm intensity for any updrafts crossing this boundary. Elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that multicells and splitting supercells will be the main modes of convection, with large hail possible. Some stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter. It is unclear precisely when an uptick in greater severe coverage will occur. Nonetheless, the CAPE/shear parameter space and synoptic environment suggest that an appreciable severe threat will unfold at some point this afternoon, when a WW issuance will ultimately be necessary. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31160420 31940359 32250235 31890110 31280067 30550068 30070102 30030226 30050313 30400407 31160420 Read more