Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated winds and RH are possible on portions of the Florida Peninsula today. Additionally, isolated to scattered thunderstorms from south into central Florida could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from the rain cores combined with near record high KBDI and ERC values. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A late afternoon onset of localized elevated fire weather conditions will develop across portions of southern NM and west TX today. In particular, sustained westerly wind speeds may briefly approach 20 mph just east of the Sacramento Mountains, and in/around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. This is also where single-digit RH is again expected. The areal extent of these conditions, however, is too small to warrant an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated winds and RH are possible on portions of the Florida Peninsula today. Additionally, isolated to scattered thunderstorms from south into central Florida could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from the rain cores combined with near record high KBDI and ERC values. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A late afternoon onset of localized elevated fire weather conditions will develop across portions of southern NM and west TX today. In particular, sustained westerly wind speeds may briefly approach 20 mph just east of the Sacramento Mountains, and in/around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. This is also where single-digit RH is again expected. The areal extent of these conditions, however, is too small to warrant an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated winds and RH are possible on portions of the Florida Peninsula today. Additionally, isolated to scattered thunderstorms from south into central Florida could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from the rain cores combined with near record high KBDI and ERC values. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A late afternoon onset of localized elevated fire weather conditions will develop across portions of southern NM and west TX today. In particular, sustained westerly wind speeds may briefly approach 20 mph just east of the Sacramento Mountains, and in/around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. This is also where single-digit RH is again expected. The areal extent of these conditions, however, is too small to warrant an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1076 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1076 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0855 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301355Z - 301530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts of 40-50 mph are possible with a line of thunderstorms developing southeast through the morning. DISCUSSION...A line of storms will continue to develop south/southeast across the Texas South Plains/northwest Texas vicinity this morning. Recent observations from the West Texas Mesonet indicated gusts of 40-50 mph have occurred near Wellington, while KCDS gusted to 63 mph. This activity will continue to move into an unstable airmass characterized by low to mid 60s F dewpoints and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Portions of the downstream airmass have likely been impacted by another cluster of storms that moved over this area and is now located of north Texas. At least weak low-level inhibition is evident in regional 12z RAOBs and latest SPC Mesoanalysis. As a result of impacts from prior convection and a still weakly capped environment, expect convection to largely remain sub-severe in this short term, with gusts mostly in the 40-50 mph range possible, though isolated locally stronger gusts will be possible. A watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34810053 34949973 34709940 34339937 33649954 33249985 33170074 33280163 33480198 33870207 34200200 34450151 34810053 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight from west into central Texas. More isolated severe storms will be possible today from the Red River Valley into east Texas, and into southwest Texas. ...Southern Plains through tonight... A complex scenario is unfolding this morning with multiple, small thunderstorm clusters ongoing across southern KS/northwest OK, northwest TX and the TX Panhandle. The warm sector across TX/southern OK has recovered during the past 24 hours, with boundary-layer dewpoints into the upper 60s to northwest TX and the upper 70s along the TX coast. The latter two clusters will likely be the most influential today while moving east-southeastward along the north edge of the richer moisture/buoyancy, with the potential for occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter from north into east TX today. Convective outflow is expected to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms, which will help focus additional severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the TX South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon in the ENH area. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is probable tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours into central/north TX. ...KS/CO/NE through tonight... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in KS cast doubt on any specifics regarding the severe threat north of the ongoing TX storm clusters. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today could result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind. However, vertical shear will also be relatively weak in most areas along and south of the slow-moving front from CO to NE, which combined with the effects of prior convection could tend to limit the overall severe threat. Will maintain much of the original SLGT risk area into KS/CO, but confidence in the forecast is low. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight from west into central Texas. More isolated severe storms will be possible today from the Red River Valley into east Texas, and into southwest Texas. ...Southern Plains through tonight... A complex scenario is unfolding this morning with multiple, small thunderstorm clusters ongoing across southern KS/northwest OK, northwest TX and the TX Panhandle. The warm sector across TX/southern OK has recovered during the past 24 hours, with boundary-layer dewpoints into the upper 60s to northwest TX and the upper 70s along the TX coast. The latter two clusters will likely be the most influential today while moving east-southeastward along the north edge of the richer moisture/buoyancy, with the potential for occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter from north into east TX today. Convective outflow is expected to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms, which will help focus additional severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the TX South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon in the ENH area. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is probable tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours into central/north TX. ...KS/CO/NE through tonight... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in KS cast doubt on any specifics regarding the severe threat north of the ongoing TX storm clusters. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today could result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind. However, vertical shear will also be relatively weak in most areas along and south of the slow-moving front from CO to NE, which combined with the effects of prior convection could tend to limit the overall severe threat. Will maintain much of the original SLGT risk area into KS/CO, but confidence in the forecast is low. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight from west into central Texas. More isolated severe storms will be possible today from the Red River Valley into east Texas, and into southwest Texas. ...Southern Plains through tonight... A complex scenario is unfolding this morning with multiple, small thunderstorm clusters ongoing across southern KS/northwest OK, northwest TX and the TX Panhandle. The warm sector across TX/southern OK has recovered during the past 24 hours, with boundary-layer dewpoints into the upper 60s to northwest TX and the upper 70s along the TX coast. The latter two clusters will likely be the most influential today while moving east-southeastward along the north edge of the richer moisture/buoyancy, with the potential for occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter from north into east TX today. Convective outflow is expected to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms, which will help focus additional severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the TX South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon in the ENH area. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is probable tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours into central/north TX. ...KS/CO/NE through tonight... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in KS cast doubt on any specifics regarding the severe threat north of the ongoing TX storm clusters. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today could result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind. However, vertical shear will also be relatively weak in most areas along and south of the slow-moving front from CO to NE, which combined with the effects of prior convection could tend to limit the overall severe threat. Will maintain much of the original SLGT risk area into KS/CO, but confidence in the forecast is low. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight from west into central Texas. More isolated severe storms will be possible today from the Red River Valley into east Texas, and into southwest Texas. ...Southern Plains through tonight... A complex scenario is unfolding this morning with multiple, small thunderstorm clusters ongoing across southern KS/northwest OK, northwest TX and the TX Panhandle. The warm sector across TX/southern OK has recovered during the past 24 hours, with boundary-layer dewpoints into the upper 60s to northwest TX and the upper 70s along the TX coast. The latter two clusters will likely be the most influential today while moving east-southeastward along the north edge of the richer moisture/buoyancy, with the potential for occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter from north into east TX today. Convective outflow is expected to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms, which will help focus additional severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the TX South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon in the ENH area. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is probable tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours into central/north TX. ...KS/CO/NE through tonight... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in KS cast doubt on any specifics regarding the severe threat north of the ongoing TX storm clusters. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today could result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind. However, vertical shear will also be relatively weak in most areas along and south of the slow-moving front from CO to NE, which combined with the effects of prior convection could tend to limit the overall severe threat. Will maintain much of the original SLGT risk area into KS/CO, but confidence in the forecast is low. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight from west into central Texas. More isolated severe storms will be possible today from the Red River Valley into east Texas, and into southwest Texas. ...Southern Plains through tonight... A complex scenario is unfolding this morning with multiple, small thunderstorm clusters ongoing across southern KS/northwest OK, northwest TX and the TX Panhandle. The warm sector across TX/southern OK has recovered during the past 24 hours, with boundary-layer dewpoints into the upper 60s to northwest TX and the upper 70s along the TX coast. The latter two clusters will likely be the most influential today while moving east-southeastward along the north edge of the richer moisture/buoyancy, with the potential for occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter from north into east TX today. Convective outflow is expected to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms, which will help focus additional severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the TX South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon in the ENH area. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is probable tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours into central/north TX. ...KS/CO/NE through tonight... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in KS cast doubt on any specifics regarding the severe threat north of the ongoing TX storm clusters. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today could result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind. However, vertical shear will also be relatively weak in most areas along and south of the slow-moving front from CO to NE, which combined with the effects of prior convection could tend to limit the overall severe threat. Will maintain much of the original SLGT risk area into KS/CO, but confidence in the forecast is low. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight from west into central Texas. More isolated severe storms will be possible today from the Red River Valley into east Texas, and into southwest Texas. ...Southern Plains through tonight... A complex scenario is unfolding this morning with multiple, small thunderstorm clusters ongoing across southern KS/northwest OK, northwest TX and the TX Panhandle. The warm sector across TX/southern OK has recovered during the past 24 hours, with boundary-layer dewpoints into the upper 60s to northwest TX and the upper 70s along the TX coast. The latter two clusters will likely be the most influential today while moving east-southeastward along the north edge of the richer moisture/buoyancy, with the potential for occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter from north into east TX today. Convective outflow is expected to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms, which will help focus additional severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the TX South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon in the ENH area. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is probable tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours into central/north TX. ...KS/CO/NE through tonight... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in KS cast doubt on any specifics regarding the severe threat north of the ongoing TX storm clusters. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today could result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind. However, vertical shear will also be relatively weak in most areas along and south of the slow-moving front from CO to NE, which combined with the effects of prior convection could tend to limit the overall severe threat. Will maintain much of the original SLGT risk area into KS/CO, but confidence in the forecast is low. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/30/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles to the
south of southern Mexico over the weekend. Some slow development
of this system is possible during the early and middle portions of
next week while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

MD 1075 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE TO WESTERN NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1075 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...Western TX Panhandle to western north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301000Z - 301130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic and isolated large hail/severe wind gusts will remain possible through mid-morning with regenerative thunderstorm clusters. DISCUSSION...Persistent warm theta-e advection, supported by a 40-45 kt low-level jet and characterized by low to mid 60s surface dew points spreading north into the TX Panhandle, continues to foster regenerative updrafts that are capable of producing large hail and localized severe gusts. Recent HRRR runs along with the 00Z NSSL-MPAS suggest two distinct clusters will continue east-southeast through mid-morning. The leading one will spread deeper into western north TX, with the primary large hail threat occurring along its western/upstream flank. The second one in the western TX Panhandle will likely track along the residual outflow from the leading cluster. The low-level jet should finally subside after sunrise which will probably marginalize the overall severe threat briefly, before downstream boundary-layer warming aids in possible restrengthening in the late morning. ..Grams/Thompson.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34219931 33779854 33199859 32989878 32809921 32970000 33570121 34350220 34860273 35150269 35380187 35220096 34219931 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America may undergo substantive amplification during the middle to latter portion of next week. This is forecast to include building larger-scale ridging across much of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Within an initially zonal regime preceding this evolution, guidance continues to suggest that modest surface cyclogenesis may accompany the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short wave trough, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri and northern Great Plains Red River Valley vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Moderately large CAPE may develop beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great Plains, from the developing cyclone southward. Strongest forcing for ascent and shear may focus the most substantive convective development from near the surface low/dryline across central South Dakota by late Sunday afternoon northeastward through central and southern Minnesota by late Sunday afternoon and evening. This may include a few supercells initially, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster. It currently appears that sustained thunderstorm development may be much more isolated southward along the dryline through the remainder of the Great Plains. A considerably stronger short wave trough may dig downstream of the amplifying ridge by the early to middle portion of next week. This may be accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis, and perhaps the evolution of a broad deep mid-level low centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late next week. This might be accompanied by a risk for strong to severe storms spreading from portions of the northern and central Great Plains as far east as portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by late next week. However, due to still large model spread, which increases by early next week, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America may undergo substantive amplification during the middle to latter portion of next week. This is forecast to include building larger-scale ridging across much of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Within an initially zonal regime preceding this evolution, guidance continues to suggest that modest surface cyclogenesis may accompany the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short wave trough, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri and northern Great Plains Red River Valley vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Moderately large CAPE may develop beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great Plains, from the developing cyclone southward. Strongest forcing for ascent and shear may focus the most substantive convective development from near the surface low/dryline across central South Dakota by late Sunday afternoon northeastward through central and southern Minnesota by late Sunday afternoon and evening. This may include a few supercells initially, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster. It currently appears that sustained thunderstorm development may be much more isolated southward along the dryline through the remainder of the Great Plains. A considerably stronger short wave trough may dig downstream of the amplifying ridge by the early to middle portion of next week. This may be accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis, and perhaps the evolution of a broad deep mid-level low centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late next week. This might be accompanied by a risk for strong to severe storms spreading from portions of the northern and central Great Plains as far east as portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by late next week. However, due to still large model spread, which increases by early next week, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America may undergo substantive amplification during the middle to latter portion of next week. This is forecast to include building larger-scale ridging across much of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Within an initially zonal regime preceding this evolution, guidance continues to suggest that modest surface cyclogenesis may accompany the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short wave trough, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri and northern Great Plains Red River Valley vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Moderately large CAPE may develop beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great Plains, from the developing cyclone southward. Strongest forcing for ascent and shear may focus the most substantive convective development from near the surface low/dryline across central South Dakota by late Sunday afternoon northeastward through central and southern Minnesota by late Sunday afternoon and evening. This may include a few supercells initially, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster. It currently appears that sustained thunderstorm development may be much more isolated southward along the dryline through the remainder of the Great Plains. A considerably stronger short wave trough may dig downstream of the amplifying ridge by the early to middle portion of next week. This may be accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis, and perhaps the evolution of a broad deep mid-level low centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late next week. This might be accompanied by a risk for strong to severe storms spreading from portions of the northern and central Great Plains as far east as portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by late next week. However, due to still large model spread, which increases by early next week, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America may undergo substantive amplification during the middle to latter portion of next week. This is forecast to include building larger-scale ridging across much of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Within an initially zonal regime preceding this evolution, guidance continues to suggest that modest surface cyclogenesis may accompany the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short wave trough, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri and northern Great Plains Red River Valley vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Moderately large CAPE may develop beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great Plains, from the developing cyclone southward. Strongest forcing for ascent and shear may focus the most substantive convective development from near the surface low/dryline across central South Dakota by late Sunday afternoon northeastward through central and southern Minnesota by late Sunday afternoon and evening. This may include a few supercells initially, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster. It currently appears that sustained thunderstorm development may be much more isolated southward along the dryline through the remainder of the Great Plains. A considerably stronger short wave trough may dig downstream of the amplifying ridge by the early to middle portion of next week. This may be accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis, and perhaps the evolution of a broad deep mid-level low centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late next week. This might be accompanied by a risk for strong to severe storms spreading from portions of the northern and central Great Plains as far east as portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by late next week. However, due to still large model spread, which increases by early next week, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America may undergo substantive amplification during the middle to latter portion of next week. This is forecast to include building larger-scale ridging across much of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Within an initially zonal regime preceding this evolution, guidance continues to suggest that modest surface cyclogenesis may accompany the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short wave trough, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri and northern Great Plains Red River Valley vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Moderately large CAPE may develop beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great Plains, from the developing cyclone southward. Strongest forcing for ascent and shear may focus the most substantive convective development from near the surface low/dryline across central South Dakota by late Sunday afternoon northeastward through central and southern Minnesota by late Sunday afternoon and evening. This may include a few supercells initially, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster. It currently appears that sustained thunderstorm development may be much more isolated southward along the dryline through the remainder of the Great Plains. A considerably stronger short wave trough may dig downstream of the amplifying ridge by the early to middle portion of next week. This may be accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis, and perhaps the evolution of a broad deep mid-level low centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late next week. This might be accompanied by a risk for strong to severe storms spreading from portions of the northern and central Great Plains as far east as portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by late next week. However, due to still large model spread, which increases by early next week, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America may undergo substantive amplification during the middle to latter portion of next week. This is forecast to include building larger-scale ridging across much of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Within an initially zonal regime preceding this evolution, guidance continues to suggest that modest surface cyclogenesis may accompany the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short wave trough, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri and northern Great Plains Red River Valley vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Moderately large CAPE may develop beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great Plains, from the developing cyclone southward. Strongest forcing for ascent and shear may focus the most substantive convective development from near the surface low/dryline across central South Dakota by late Sunday afternoon northeastward through central and southern Minnesota by late Sunday afternoon and evening. This may include a few supercells initially, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster. It currently appears that sustained thunderstorm development may be much more isolated southward along the dryline through the remainder of the Great Plains. A considerably stronger short wave trough may dig downstream of the amplifying ridge by the early to middle portion of next week. This may be accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis, and perhaps the evolution of a broad deep mid-level low centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late next week. This might be accompanied by a risk for strong to severe storms spreading from portions of the northern and central Great Plains as far east as portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by late next week. However, due to still large model spread, which increases by early next week, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America may undergo substantive amplification during the middle to latter portion of next week. This is forecast to include building larger-scale ridging across much of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Within an initially zonal regime preceding this evolution, guidance continues to suggest that modest surface cyclogenesis may accompany the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short wave trough, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri and northern Great Plains Red River Valley vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Moderately large CAPE may develop beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great Plains, from the developing cyclone southward. Strongest forcing for ascent and shear may focus the most substantive convective development from near the surface low/dryline across central South Dakota by late Sunday afternoon northeastward through central and southern Minnesota by late Sunday afternoon and evening. This may include a few supercells initially, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster. It currently appears that sustained thunderstorm development may be much more isolated southward along the dryline through the remainder of the Great Plains. A considerably stronger short wave trough may dig downstream of the amplifying ridge by the early to middle portion of next week. This may be accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis, and perhaps the evolution of a broad deep mid-level low centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late next week. This might be accompanied by a risk for strong to severe storms spreading from portions of the northern and central Great Plains as far east as portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by late next week. However, due to still large model spread, which increases by early next week, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

MD 1074 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351... FOR NORTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...northwest TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351... Valid 300702Z - 300830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat appears to be diminishing within WW 351, while an isolated severe hail/wind threat should persist farther east in a portion of northwest Texas. DISCUSSION...The longer-lived supercell that produced significant severe in east-central NM, weakened substantially as it shifted eat into the TX South Plains. This appears to be in response to impinging on greater MLCIN, despite larger buoyancy to its southeast. Meanwhile, a cluster flare-up has occurred downstream towards the southeast TX Panhandle. This cluster has shown some organization, although the cluster mode appears to be limiting hail magnitudes. Isolated severe hail will probably remain most prominent within the southwest portion of this cluster development back to the remnant supercell. Localized severe wind gusts may become the overarching threat as the cluster gradually shifts east. How long this threat will last is uncertain, but it's plausible it will continue through the rest of pre-dawn. ..Grams.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34190267 34280186 34610113 34800071 34810037 34679993 34279983 34029997 33880033 33780133 33740216 33900275 34190267 Read more