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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the High Plains. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. ...High Plains... At the surface, a trough is located from northeastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado, western Nebraska and the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the trough, along the western edge of a moderately unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints across much of the High Plains are generally in the 50s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The corridor of moderate instability is located just to the east of the many of the ongoing storms, suggesting that storm intensity will be maintained for several more hours this evening. The WSR-88D VWP near Goodland, Kansas appears to be sampling shear well along and near the instability axis, with 0-6 km shear estimated near 40 knots. In addition, the RAP forecast sounding at Goodland for 01Z has 700-500 mb lapse rate between 8 and 8.5 C/km, suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercells. Some of the storms have taken on a linear structure. This trend is expected to continue this evening, which could increase the potential for isolated severe wind gusts. As instability drops during the mid to late evening, the severe threat should gradually become marginal. Further south across west Texas, a couple severe storms are ongoing to the southeast of the Davis Mountains. These storms are located along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings to the east of the Davis Mountains early this evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support a large-hail threat with supercells, and hailstones of greater then 2 inches in diameter may occur with the cells that move into the areas of strongest instability. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the High Plains. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. ...High Plains... At the surface, a trough is located from northeastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado, western Nebraska and the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the trough, along the western edge of a moderately unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints across much of the High Plains are generally in the 50s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The corridor of moderate instability is located just to the east of the many of the ongoing storms, suggesting that storm intensity will be maintained for several more hours this evening. The WSR-88D VWP near Goodland, Kansas appears to be sampling shear well along and near the instability axis, with 0-6 km shear estimated near 40 knots. In addition, the RAP forecast sounding at Goodland for 01Z has 700-500 mb lapse rate between 8 and 8.5 C/km, suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercells. Some of the storms have taken on a linear structure. This trend is expected to continue this evening, which could increase the potential for isolated severe wind gusts. As instability drops during the mid to late evening, the severe threat should gradually become marginal. Further south across west Texas, a couple severe storms are ongoing to the southeast of the Davis Mountains. These storms are located along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings to the east of the Davis Mountains early this evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support a large-hail threat with supercells, and hailstones of greater then 2 inches in diameter may occur with the cells that move into the areas of strongest instability. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the High Plains. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. ...High Plains... At the surface, a trough is located from northeastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado, western Nebraska and the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the trough, along the western edge of a moderately unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints across much of the High Plains are generally in the 50s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The corridor of moderate instability is located just to the east of the many of the ongoing storms, suggesting that storm intensity will be maintained for several more hours this evening. The WSR-88D VWP near Goodland, Kansas appears to be sampling shear well along and near the instability axis, with 0-6 km shear estimated near 40 knots. In addition, the RAP forecast sounding at Goodland for 01Z has 700-500 mb lapse rate between 8 and 8.5 C/km, suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercells. Some of the storms have taken on a linear structure. This trend is expected to continue this evening, which could increase the potential for isolated severe wind gusts. As instability drops during the mid to late evening, the severe threat should gradually become marginal. Further south across west Texas, a couple severe storms are ongoing to the southeast of the Davis Mountains. These storms are located along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings to the east of the Davis Mountains early this evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support a large-hail threat with supercells, and hailstones of greater then 2 inches in diameter may occur with the cells that move into the areas of strongest instability. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the High Plains. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. ...High Plains... At the surface, a trough is located from northeastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado, western Nebraska and the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the trough, along the western edge of a moderately unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints across much of the High Plains are generally in the 50s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The corridor of moderate instability is located just to the east of the many of the ongoing storms, suggesting that storm intensity will be maintained for several more hours this evening. The WSR-88D VWP near Goodland, Kansas appears to be sampling shear well along and near the instability axis, with 0-6 km shear estimated near 40 knots. In addition, the RAP forecast sounding at Goodland for 01Z has 700-500 mb lapse rate between 8 and 8.5 C/km, suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercells. Some of the storms have taken on a linear structure. This trend is expected to continue this evening, which could increase the potential for isolated severe wind gusts. As instability drops during the mid to late evening, the severe threat should gradually become marginal. Further south across west Texas, a couple severe storms are ongoing to the southeast of the Davis Mountains. These storms are located along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings to the east of the Davis Mountains early this evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support a large-hail threat with supercells, and hailstones of greater then 2 inches in diameter may occur with the cells that move into the areas of strongest instability. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the High Plains. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. ...High Plains... At the surface, a trough is located from northeastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado, western Nebraska and the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the trough, along the western edge of a moderately unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints across much of the High Plains are generally in the 50s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The corridor of moderate instability is located just to the east of the many of the ongoing storms, suggesting that storm intensity will be maintained for several more hours this evening. The WSR-88D VWP near Goodland, Kansas appears to be sampling shear well along and near the instability axis, with 0-6 km shear estimated near 40 knots. In addition, the RAP forecast sounding at Goodland for 01Z has 700-500 mb lapse rate between 8 and 8.5 C/km, suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercells. Some of the storms have taken on a linear structure. This trend is expected to continue this evening, which could increase the potential for isolated severe wind gusts. As instability drops during the mid to late evening, the severe threat should gradually become marginal. Further south across west Texas, a couple severe storms are ongoing to the southeast of the Davis Mountains. These storms are located along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings to the east of the Davis Mountains early this evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support a large-hail threat with supercells, and hailstones of greater then 2 inches in diameter may occur with the cells that move into the areas of strongest instability. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/30/2024 Read more

MD 1071 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350... FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1071 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas affected...The High Plains of Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 350... Valid 292255Z - 300100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 350 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat of severe damaging wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and possibly a land spout or two. DISCUSSION...A few clusters of robust updrafts continue to slowly progress eastward off the higher terrain of the NE Panhandle and eastern CO plains. These thunderstorms developed within a lee surface trough/dryline, within an environment characterized by very steep mid and low-level lapse rates, relatively weak deep layer shear, and enhanced surface vorticity. The latter, and localized pockets of enhanced stretching, will continue to support non-zero probabilities for landspouts. In addition, as the evening progresses, continued cell mergers combined with inverted V soundings/large downdraft CAPE could promote severe wind gusts via wet downbursts. Before then, isolated hail stones up to 1-1.75" in diameter will remain possible. ..Barnes.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 37060302 37740344 39870402 41090409 42970378 42960215 37530148 37090205 37060302 Read more

MD 1070 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349... FOR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1070 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas affected...Northern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 349... Valid 292236Z - 300000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 349 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will shift east this evening. DISCUSSION...Weak mid-level height falls are beginning to suppress the northern Plains ridge early this evening. Scattered convection that evolved over northeast WY has progressed downstream into the primary instability axis characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. This activity should continue advancing east this evening as LLJ is expected to increase markedly after sunset in response to the approaching upper trough. Latest radar data suggests many updrafts are generating hail, the most robust updrafts may be producing hail in excess of 1.5 inches. Gusty winds may also accompany this activity as it advances downstream. ..Darrow.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW... LAT...LON 43150632 48870738 48870274 43150215 43150632 Read more

WW 0350 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W TAD TO 15 ENE PUB TO 35 WNW LIC TO 30 NE FCL TO 35 E CYS TO 5 SE TOR TO 45 N TOR TO 65 NNE DGW. ..LYONS..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-039-061-063-071-073-075-087-089-095-099-115- 121-125-300140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-181-199-300140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE NEC005-007-013-029-033-045-049-057-069-075-101-105-123-135-157- Read more

WW 350 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 292100Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 350 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Far Western Kansas Western Nebraska Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the region, with bouts of large hail and locally damaging winds possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Chadron NE to 15 miles south southwest of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 349... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0349 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE SHR TO 35 NNE MLS TO 5 ESE OLF TO 75 N OLF. ..LYONS..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-075-079-083-085-091-109-300040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-023-025-033-041-053-087-089-105-300040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK WILLIAMS SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-102-103-105-300040- SD Read more

WW 349 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 292010Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 349 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Montana Western North Dakota Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop and generally move northeastward across the region through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Wolf Point MT to 85 miles southwest of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Guyer Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292308
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 1069 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON PLATEUA
Mesoscale Discussion 1069 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateua Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292224Z - 292330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A couple of transient supercells may develop within the next 1-2 hours across portions of the Stockton Plateau and Permian basin. Large hail up to 1.5 to 2.5" in diameter, and perhaps localized severe wind gusts may accompany these thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KMAF shows continued attempts of deep moist convection over the Davis Mountains via orographic ascent and easterly upslope flow. Surface observations across this region, combined with modified RAP forecast soundings, suggest localized CINH has eroded here, with very steep mid level lapse rates in place. Large CAPE within the hail growth zone, combined with effective deep layer shear magnitudes of 30-35 kt, will promote some updraft organization. However, more broader scale forcing mechanisms will limit the overall coverage of the severe threat. ..Barnes/Hart.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29890320 30360344 31030355 31580283 31570187 30820134 30220124 29910227 29880317 29890320 Read more

MD 1068 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST WY...WESTERN NE...EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1068 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas affected...southeast WY...western NE...eastern CO and far western KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 292027Z - 292230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected into early evening. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main concerns with this activity. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are intensifying this afternoon away from higher terrain over the adjacent high Plains. Southeasterly low-level winds around 20-30 kt have allowed dewpoints to climb into the upper 40s to low 50s F. Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates are further supporting MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg. Vertical shear is expected to increase with eastward extent toward evening, and thunderstorm clusters may become better organized with time. Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support strong downdrafts and thunderstorm gusts of 55-70 mph are expected. Additionally, very steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear and instability for at least briefly robust updrafts may also support large hail. Some potential for a couple of landspouts also will exist into early evening across parts of eastern CO where backed low-level winds are present in an area of low-level convergence near a surface low/trough. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for portions of the MCD area. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 43560553 43470370 42970257 40860159 40480150 37450140 37100186 37000231 37010349 37020417 39180451 42330499 43560553 Read more

WW 0350 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 350 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-039-061-063-071-073-075-087-089-095-099-115- 121-125-292340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-181-199-292340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE NEC005-007-013-029-033-045-049-057-069-075-101-105-123-135-157- 161-165-292340- Read more

WW 0349 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 349 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-021-025-033-055-065-075-079-083-085-087-091-103- 109-111-292340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN TREASURE WIBAUX YELLOWSTONE NDC001-007-011-023-025-033-041-053-087-089-105-292340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK WILLIAMS SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-102-103-105-292340- Read more

MD 1067 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas affected...southeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291947Z - 292145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible through early evening. Locally gusty winds of 45-60 mph and hail to near 1 inch diameter are possible with these storms. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a deepening cumulus field across southeast Texas this afternoon, and convective initiation appears close in convection near Houston. Strong heating and surface dewpoints in the 70s F, in addition to near 7 C/km midlevel lapse rates, are contributing to MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg. Southeasterly low-level flow becoming west/northwesterly in the mid/upper levels is resulting in effective shear values near 30 kt. Furthermore, forecast soundings show elongated/straight hodographs. This will support at least transient supercells and semi-organized clusters capable of near 1 inch diameter hail. A somewhat dry EML and PW values around 1.75-2 inches also will support strong gusts. Convection is expected to remain somewhat isolated and severe potential overall appears limited, and a watch is not currently expected. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 31009582 31039513 30579457 30029435 29419444 29079454 28679497 28329572 28249632 28459689 28979696 31009582 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z ... Large-scale fire weather concerns should remain low over the next week ... The large-scale mid-to-upper-level pattern across the West will de-amplify this week, becoming more zonal with time. The strongest flow within this broadly zonal regime will be found across the northern states, removed from where fuels are dry enough to support large-scale fire concerns. By early next week the large-scale pattern is expected to amplify again. However, significant spread within global ensembles -- solutions range from high-amplitude ridge in the West to a cutoff low moving across the West -- lead little confidence in large-scale fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z ... Large-scale fire weather concerns should remain low over the next week ... The large-scale mid-to-upper-level pattern across the West will de-amplify this week, becoming more zonal with time. The strongest flow within this broadly zonal regime will be found across the northern states, removed from where fuels are dry enough to support large-scale fire concerns. By early next week the large-scale pattern is expected to amplify again. However, significant spread within global ensembles -- solutions range from high-amplitude ridge in the West to a cutoff low moving across the West -- lead little confidence in large-scale fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z ... Large-scale fire weather concerns should remain low over the next week ... The large-scale mid-to-upper-level pattern across the West will de-amplify this week, becoming more zonal with time. The strongest flow within this broadly zonal regime will be found across the northern states, removed from where fuels are dry enough to support large-scale fire concerns. By early next week the large-scale pattern is expected to amplify again. However, significant spread within global ensembles -- solutions range from high-amplitude ridge in the West to a cutoff low moving across the West -- lead little confidence in large-scale fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more