Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated winds and RH are possible on portions of the Florida Peninsula today. Additionally, isolated to scattered thunderstorms from south into central Florida could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from the rain cores combined with near record high KBDI and ERC values. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A late afternoon onset of localized elevated fire weather conditions will develop across portions of southern NM and west TX today. In particular, sustained westerly wind speeds may briefly approach 20 mph just east of the Sacramento Mountains, and in/around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. This is also where single-digit RH is again expected. The areal extent of these conditions, however, is too small to warrant an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated winds and RH are possible on portions of the Florida Peninsula today. Additionally, isolated to scattered thunderstorms from south into central Florida could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from the rain cores combined with near record high KBDI and ERC values. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A late afternoon onset of localized elevated fire weather conditions will develop across portions of southern NM and west TX today. In particular, sustained westerly wind speeds may briefly approach 20 mph just east of the Sacramento Mountains, and in/around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. This is also where single-digit RH is again expected. The areal extent of these conditions, however, is too small to warrant an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated winds and RH are possible on portions of the Florida Peninsula today. Additionally, isolated to scattered thunderstorms from south into central Florida could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from the rain cores combined with near record high KBDI and ERC values. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A late afternoon onset of localized elevated fire weather conditions will develop across portions of southern NM and west TX today. In particular, sustained westerly wind speeds may briefly approach 20 mph just east of the Sacramento Mountains, and in/around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. This is also where single-digit RH is again expected. The areal extent of these conditions, however, is too small to warrant an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated winds and RH are possible on portions of the Florida Peninsula today. Additionally, isolated to scattered thunderstorms from south into central Florida could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from the rain cores combined with near record high KBDI and ERC values. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A late afternoon onset of localized elevated fire weather conditions will develop across portions of southern NM and west TX today. In particular, sustained westerly wind speeds may briefly approach 20 mph just east of the Sacramento Mountains, and in/around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. This is also where single-digit RH is again expected. The areal extent of these conditions, however, is too small to warrant an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated winds and RH are possible on portions of the Florida Peninsula today. Additionally, isolated to scattered thunderstorms from south into central Florida could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from the rain cores combined with near record high KBDI and ERC values. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A late afternoon onset of localized elevated fire weather conditions will develop across portions of southern NM and west TX today. In particular, sustained westerly wind speeds may briefly approach 20 mph just east of the Sacramento Mountains, and in/around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. This is also where single-digit RH is again expected. The areal extent of these conditions, however, is too small to warrant an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more