Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 30 21:27:08 UTC 2024.

WW 0353 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 353 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 353 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-027-035-041-051-073-093-099-139-143-145-161-183-193- 213-217-221-225-251-257-281-289-293-309-313-331-333-347-349-379- 395-401-423-425-455-459-467-499-302240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL BOSQUE BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE COMANCHE CORYELL ELLIS ERATH FALLS FREESTONE GREGG HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOUSTON JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MILLS NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO RAINS ROBERTSON RUSK SMITH SOMERVELL TRINITY UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more