SPC May 31, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, associated with a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is also expected to develop over the High Plains late this afternoon and early this evening, where isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the south-central U.S. today. A moist and unstable airmass will be located from the lower Mississippi Valley extending westward across much of Texas. Along the northern edge of the moist airmass, a few organized line segments should be ongoing at the start of the period from north-central Texas eastward into the Sabine River Valley. As surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass over central and east Texas today, this convection is expected to gradually intensify, with new convective development taking place on residual outflow boundaries. Short-term model forecasts from the HRRR suggest that a linear MCS could organize during the mid to late morning. If this happens, then a wind-damage threat would be likely from parts of the Texas Hill Country eastward into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Further to the east into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection will take place as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F from northern Louisiana into Arkansas. Surface heating and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will likely support scattered thunderstorm development. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings from east Texas into northern Louisiana have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This would be enough to support a severe threat with the stronger cells. Some short-term model forecasts suggest that cells will remain discrete, and will have potential to rotate. If this occurs, then an isolated tornado threat may develop in parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, along the southern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Across most of the region, wind damage will be the primary threat, with this potential continuing into the early to mid evening. ...High Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be move eastward into the Rockies today, as mid-level flow over the High Plains remains mostly from a westerly direction. A relatively narrow axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from eastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain, and move eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide have MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 knot range, which should easily support supercell development. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail be possible as the storms mature over the plains of eastern Colorado during the early evening. A conditional threat for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may also exist. Further south across northeast New Mexico, thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the higher terrain this afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast over far eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE could peak near 2000 J/kg. The greatest potential for severe convection will be in far northeast New Mexico, where moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. Supercells with isolated large hail are expected in the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should be more isolated with southward extent over eastern Mexico, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably weaker. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC May 31, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, associated with a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is also expected to develop over the High Plains late this afternoon and early this evening, where isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the south-central U.S. today. A moist and unstable airmass will be located from the lower Mississippi Valley extending westward across much of Texas. Along the northern edge of the moist airmass, a few organized line segments should be ongoing at the start of the period from north-central Texas eastward into the Sabine River Valley. As surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass over central and east Texas today, this convection is expected to gradually intensify, with new convective development taking place on residual outflow boundaries. Short-term model forecasts from the HRRR suggest that a linear MCS could organize during the mid to late morning. If this happens, then a wind-damage threat would be likely from parts of the Texas Hill Country eastward into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Further to the east into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection will take place as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F from northern Louisiana into Arkansas. Surface heating and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will likely support scattered thunderstorm development. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings from east Texas into northern Louisiana have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This would be enough to support a severe threat with the stronger cells. Some short-term model forecasts suggest that cells will remain discrete, and will have potential to rotate. If this occurs, then an isolated tornado threat may develop in parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, along the southern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Across most of the region, wind damage will be the primary threat, with this potential continuing into the early to mid evening. ...High Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be move eastward into the Rockies today, as mid-level flow over the High Plains remains mostly from a westerly direction. A relatively narrow axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from eastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain, and move eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide have MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 knot range, which should easily support supercell development. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail be possible as the storms mature over the plains of eastern Colorado during the early evening. A conditional threat for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may also exist. Further south across northeast New Mexico, thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the higher terrain this afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast over far eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE could peak near 2000 J/kg. The greatest potential for severe convection will be in far northeast New Mexico, where moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. Supercells with isolated large hail are expected in the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should be more isolated with southward extent over eastern Mexico, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably weaker. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC May 31, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, associated with a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is also expected to develop over the High Plains late this afternoon and early this evening, where isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the south-central U.S. today. A moist and unstable airmass will be located from the lower Mississippi Valley extending westward across much of Texas. Along the northern edge of the moist airmass, a few organized line segments should be ongoing at the start of the period from north-central Texas eastward into the Sabine River Valley. As surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass over central and east Texas today, this convection is expected to gradually intensify, with new convective development taking place on residual outflow boundaries. Short-term model forecasts from the HRRR suggest that a linear MCS could organize during the mid to late morning. If this happens, then a wind-damage threat would be likely from parts of the Texas Hill Country eastward into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Further to the east into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection will take place as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F from northern Louisiana into Arkansas. Surface heating and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will likely support scattered thunderstorm development. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings from east Texas into northern Louisiana have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This would be enough to support a severe threat with the stronger cells. Some short-term model forecasts suggest that cells will remain discrete, and will have potential to rotate. If this occurs, then an isolated tornado threat may develop in parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, along the southern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Across most of the region, wind damage will be the primary threat, with this potential continuing into the early to mid evening. ...High Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be move eastward into the Rockies today, as mid-level flow over the High Plains remains mostly from a westerly direction. A relatively narrow axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from eastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain, and move eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide have MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 knot range, which should easily support supercell development. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail be possible as the storms mature over the plains of eastern Colorado during the early evening. A conditional threat for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may also exist. Further south across northeast New Mexico, thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the higher terrain this afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast over far eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE could peak near 2000 J/kg. The greatest potential for severe convection will be in far northeast New Mexico, where moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. Supercells with isolated large hail are expected in the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should be more isolated with southward extent over eastern Mexico, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably weaker. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC May 31, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, associated with a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is also expected to develop over the High Plains late this afternoon and early this evening, where isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the south-central U.S. today. A moist and unstable airmass will be located from the lower Mississippi Valley extending westward across much of Texas. Along the northern edge of the moist airmass, a few organized line segments should be ongoing at the start of the period from north-central Texas eastward into the Sabine River Valley. As surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass over central and east Texas today, this convection is expected to gradually intensify, with new convective development taking place on residual outflow boundaries. Short-term model forecasts from the HRRR suggest that a linear MCS could organize during the mid to late morning. If this happens, then a wind-damage threat would be likely from parts of the Texas Hill Country eastward into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Further to the east into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection will take place as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F from northern Louisiana into Arkansas. Surface heating and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will likely support scattered thunderstorm development. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings from east Texas into northern Louisiana have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This would be enough to support a severe threat with the stronger cells. Some short-term model forecasts suggest that cells will remain discrete, and will have potential to rotate. If this occurs, then an isolated tornado threat may develop in parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, along the southern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Across most of the region, wind damage will be the primary threat, with this potential continuing into the early to mid evening. ...High Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be move eastward into the Rockies today, as mid-level flow over the High Plains remains mostly from a westerly direction. A relatively narrow axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from eastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain, and move eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide have MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 knot range, which should easily support supercell development. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail be possible as the storms mature over the plains of eastern Colorado during the early evening. A conditional threat for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may also exist. Further south across northeast New Mexico, thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the higher terrain this afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast over far eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE could peak near 2000 J/kg. The greatest potential for severe convection will be in far northeast New Mexico, where moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. Supercells with isolated large hail are expected in the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should be more isolated with southward extent over eastern Mexico, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably weaker. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC May 31, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, associated with a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is also expected to develop over the High Plains late this afternoon and early this evening, where isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the south-central U.S. today. A moist and unstable airmass will be located from the lower Mississippi Valley extending westward across much of Texas. Along the northern edge of the moist airmass, a few organized line segments should be ongoing at the start of the period from north-central Texas eastward into the Sabine River Valley. As surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass over central and east Texas today, this convection is expected to gradually intensify, with new convective development taking place on residual outflow boundaries. Short-term model forecasts from the HRRR suggest that a linear MCS could organize during the mid to late morning. If this happens, then a wind-damage threat would be likely from parts of the Texas Hill Country eastward into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Further to the east into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection will take place as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F from northern Louisiana into Arkansas. Surface heating and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will likely support scattered thunderstorm development. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings from east Texas into northern Louisiana have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This would be enough to support a severe threat with the stronger cells. Some short-term model forecasts suggest that cells will remain discrete, and will have potential to rotate. If this occurs, then an isolated tornado threat may develop in parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, along the southern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Across most of the region, wind damage will be the primary threat, with this potential continuing into the early to mid evening. ...High Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be move eastward into the Rockies today, as mid-level flow over the High Plains remains mostly from a westerly direction. A relatively narrow axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from eastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain, and move eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide have MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 knot range, which should easily support supercell development. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail be possible as the storms mature over the plains of eastern Colorado during the early evening. A conditional threat for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may also exist. Further south across northeast New Mexico, thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the higher terrain this afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast over far eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE could peak near 2000 J/kg. The greatest potential for severe convection will be in far northeast New Mexico, where moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. Supercells with isolated large hail are expected in the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should be more isolated with southward extent over eastern Mexico, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably weaker. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC May 31, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, associated with a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is also expected to develop over the High Plains late this afternoon and early this evening, where isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the south-central U.S. today. A moist and unstable airmass will be located from the lower Mississippi Valley extending westward across much of Texas. Along the northern edge of the moist airmass, a few organized line segments should be ongoing at the start of the period from north-central Texas eastward into the Sabine River Valley. As surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass over central and east Texas today, this convection is expected to gradually intensify, with new convective development taking place on residual outflow boundaries. Short-term model forecasts from the HRRR suggest that a linear MCS could organize during the mid to late morning. If this happens, then a wind-damage threat would be likely from parts of the Texas Hill Country eastward into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Further to the east into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection will take place as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F from northern Louisiana into Arkansas. Surface heating and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will likely support scattered thunderstorm development. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings from east Texas into northern Louisiana have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This would be enough to support a severe threat with the stronger cells. Some short-term model forecasts suggest that cells will remain discrete, and will have potential to rotate. If this occurs, then an isolated tornado threat may develop in parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, along the southern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Across most of the region, wind damage will be the primary threat, with this potential continuing into the early to mid evening. ...High Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be move eastward into the Rockies today, as mid-level flow over the High Plains remains mostly from a westerly direction. A relatively narrow axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from eastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain, and move eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide have MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 knot range, which should easily support supercell development. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail be possible as the storms mature over the plains of eastern Colorado during the early evening. A conditional threat for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may also exist. Further south across northeast New Mexico, thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the higher terrain this afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast over far eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE could peak near 2000 J/kg. The greatest potential for severe convection will be in far northeast New Mexico, where moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. Supercells with isolated large hail are expected in the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should be more isolated with southward extent over eastern Mexico, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably weaker. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC May 31, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, associated with a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is also expected to develop over the High Plains late this afternoon and early this evening, where isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the south-central U.S. today. A moist and unstable airmass will be located from the lower Mississippi Valley extending westward across much of Texas. Along the northern edge of the moist airmass, a few organized line segments should be ongoing at the start of the period from north-central Texas eastward into the Sabine River Valley. As surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass over central and east Texas today, this convection is expected to gradually intensify, with new convective development taking place on residual outflow boundaries. Short-term model forecasts from the HRRR suggest that a linear MCS could organize during the mid to late morning. If this happens, then a wind-damage threat would be likely from parts of the Texas Hill Country eastward into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Further to the east into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection will take place as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F from northern Louisiana into Arkansas. Surface heating and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will likely support scattered thunderstorm development. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings from east Texas into northern Louisiana have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This would be enough to support a severe threat with the stronger cells. Some short-term model forecasts suggest that cells will remain discrete, and will have potential to rotate. If this occurs, then an isolated tornado threat may develop in parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, along the southern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Across most of the region, wind damage will be the primary threat, with this potential continuing into the early to mid evening. ...High Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be move eastward into the Rockies today, as mid-level flow over the High Plains remains mostly from a westerly direction. A relatively narrow axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from eastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain, and move eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide have MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 knot range, which should easily support supercell development. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail be possible as the storms mature over the plains of eastern Colorado during the early evening. A conditional threat for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may also exist. Further south across northeast New Mexico, thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the higher terrain this afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast over far eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE could peak near 2000 J/kg. The greatest potential for severe convection will be in far northeast New Mexico, where moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. Supercells with isolated large hail are expected in the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should be more isolated with southward extent over eastern Mexico, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably weaker. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC May 31, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, associated with a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is also expected to develop over the High Plains late this afternoon and early this evening, where isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the south-central U.S. today. A moist and unstable airmass will be located from the lower Mississippi Valley extending westward across much of Texas. Along the northern edge of the moist airmass, a few organized line segments should be ongoing at the start of the period from north-central Texas eastward into the Sabine River Valley. As surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass over central and east Texas today, this convection is expected to gradually intensify, with new convective development taking place on residual outflow boundaries. Short-term model forecasts from the HRRR suggest that a linear MCS could organize during the mid to late morning. If this happens, then a wind-damage threat would be likely from parts of the Texas Hill Country eastward into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Further to the east into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection will take place as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F from northern Louisiana into Arkansas. Surface heating and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will likely support scattered thunderstorm development. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings from east Texas into northern Louisiana have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This would be enough to support a severe threat with the stronger cells. Some short-term model forecasts suggest that cells will remain discrete, and will have potential to rotate. If this occurs, then an isolated tornado threat may develop in parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, along the southern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Across most of the region, wind damage will be the primary threat, with this potential continuing into the early to mid evening. ...High Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be move eastward into the Rockies today, as mid-level flow over the High Plains remains mostly from a westerly direction. A relatively narrow axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from eastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain, and move eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide have MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 knot range, which should easily support supercell development. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail be possible as the storms mature over the plains of eastern Colorado during the early evening. A conditional threat for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may also exist. Further south across northeast New Mexico, thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the higher terrain this afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast over far eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE could peak near 2000 J/kg. The greatest potential for severe convection will be in far northeast New Mexico, where moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. Supercells with isolated large hail are expected in the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should be more isolated with southward extent over eastern Mexico, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably weaker. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC May 31, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, associated with a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is also expected to develop over the High Plains late this afternoon and early this evening, where isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the south-central U.S. today. A moist and unstable airmass will be located from the lower Mississippi Valley extending westward across much of Texas. Along the northern edge of the moist airmass, a few organized line segments should be ongoing at the start of the period from north-central Texas eastward into the Sabine River Valley. As surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass over central and east Texas today, this convection is expected to gradually intensify, with new convective development taking place on residual outflow boundaries. Short-term model forecasts from the HRRR suggest that a linear MCS could organize during the mid to late morning. If this happens, then a wind-damage threat would be likely from parts of the Texas Hill Country eastward into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Further to the east into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection will take place as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F from northern Louisiana into Arkansas. Surface heating and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will likely support scattered thunderstorm development. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings from east Texas into northern Louisiana have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This would be enough to support a severe threat with the stronger cells. Some short-term model forecasts suggest that cells will remain discrete, and will have potential to rotate. If this occurs, then an isolated tornado threat may develop in parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, along the southern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Across most of the region, wind damage will be the primary threat, with this potential continuing into the early to mid evening. ...High Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be move eastward into the Rockies today, as mid-level flow over the High Plains remains mostly from a westerly direction. A relatively narrow axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from eastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain, and move eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide have MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 knot range, which should easily support supercell development. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail be possible as the storms mature over the plains of eastern Colorado during the early evening. A conditional threat for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may also exist. Further south across northeast New Mexico, thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the higher terrain this afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast over far eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE could peak near 2000 J/kg. The greatest potential for severe convection will be in far northeast New Mexico, where moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. Supercells with isolated large hail are expected in the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should be more isolated with southward extent over eastern Mexico, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably weaker. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC May 31, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, associated with a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is also expected to develop over the High Plains late this afternoon and early this evening, where isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the south-central U.S. today. A moist and unstable airmass will be located from the lower Mississippi Valley extending westward across much of Texas. Along the northern edge of the moist airmass, a few organized line segments should be ongoing at the start of the period from north-central Texas eastward into the Sabine River Valley. As surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass over central and east Texas today, this convection is expected to gradually intensify, with new convective development taking place on residual outflow boundaries. Short-term model forecasts from the HRRR suggest that a linear MCS could organize during the mid to late morning. If this happens, then a wind-damage threat would be likely from parts of the Texas Hill Country eastward into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Further to the east into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection will take place as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F from northern Louisiana into Arkansas. Surface heating and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will likely support scattered thunderstorm development. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings from east Texas into northern Louisiana have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This would be enough to support a severe threat with the stronger cells. Some short-term model forecasts suggest that cells will remain discrete, and will have potential to rotate. If this occurs, then an isolated tornado threat may develop in parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, along the southern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Across most of the region, wind damage will be the primary threat, with this potential continuing into the early to mid evening. ...High Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be move eastward into the Rockies today, as mid-level flow over the High Plains remains mostly from a westerly direction. A relatively narrow axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from eastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain, and move eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide have MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 knot range, which should easily support supercell development. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail be possible as the storms mature over the plains of eastern Colorado during the early evening. A conditional threat for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may also exist. Further south across northeast New Mexico, thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the higher terrain this afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast over far eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE could peak near 2000 J/kg. The greatest potential for severe convection will be in far northeast New Mexico, where moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. Supercells with isolated large hail are expected in the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should be more isolated with southward extent over eastern Mexico, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably weaker. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC May 31, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, associated with a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is also expected to develop over the High Plains late this afternoon and early this evening, where isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the south-central U.S. today. A moist and unstable airmass will be located from the lower Mississippi Valley extending westward across much of Texas. Along the northern edge of the moist airmass, a few organized line segments should be ongoing at the start of the period from north-central Texas eastward into the Sabine River Valley. As surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass over central and east Texas today, this convection is expected to gradually intensify, with new convective development taking place on residual outflow boundaries. Short-term model forecasts from the HRRR suggest that a linear MCS could organize during the mid to late morning. If this happens, then a wind-damage threat would be likely from parts of the Texas Hill Country eastward into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Further to the east into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection will take place as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F from northern Louisiana into Arkansas. Surface heating and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will likely support scattered thunderstorm development. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings from east Texas into northern Louisiana have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This would be enough to support a severe threat with the stronger cells. Some short-term model forecasts suggest that cells will remain discrete, and will have potential to rotate. If this occurs, then an isolated tornado threat may develop in parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, along the southern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Across most of the region, wind damage will be the primary threat, with this potential continuing into the early to mid evening. ...High Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be move eastward into the Rockies today, as mid-level flow over the High Plains remains mostly from a westerly direction. A relatively narrow axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from eastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain, and move eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide have MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 knot range, which should easily support supercell development. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail be possible as the storms mature over the plains of eastern Colorado during the early evening. A conditional threat for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may also exist. Further south across northeast New Mexico, thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the higher terrain this afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast over far eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE could peak near 2000 J/kg. The greatest potential for severe convection will be in far northeast New Mexico, where moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. Supercells with isolated large hail are expected in the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should be more isolated with southward extent over eastern Mexico, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably weaker. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC May 31, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, associated with a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is also expected to develop over the High Plains late this afternoon and early this evening, where isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the south-central U.S. today. A moist and unstable airmass will be located from the lower Mississippi Valley extending westward across much of Texas. Along the northern edge of the moist airmass, a few organized line segments should be ongoing at the start of the period from north-central Texas eastward into the Sabine River Valley. As surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass over central and east Texas today, this convection is expected to gradually intensify, with new convective development taking place on residual outflow boundaries. Short-term model forecasts from the HRRR suggest that a linear MCS could organize during the mid to late morning. If this happens, then a wind-damage threat would be likely from parts of the Texas Hill Country eastward into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Further to the east into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection will take place as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F from northern Louisiana into Arkansas. Surface heating and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will likely support scattered thunderstorm development. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings from east Texas into northern Louisiana have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This would be enough to support a severe threat with the stronger cells. Some short-term model forecasts suggest that cells will remain discrete, and will have potential to rotate. If this occurs, then an isolated tornado threat may develop in parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, along the southern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Across most of the region, wind damage will be the primary threat, with this potential continuing into the early to mid evening. ...High Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be move eastward into the Rockies today, as mid-level flow over the High Plains remains mostly from a westerly direction. A relatively narrow axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from eastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain, and move eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide have MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 knot range, which should easily support supercell development. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail be possible as the storms mature over the plains of eastern Colorado during the early evening. A conditional threat for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may also exist. Further south across northeast New Mexico, thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the higher terrain this afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast over far eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE could peak near 2000 J/kg. The greatest potential for severe convection will be in far northeast New Mexico, where moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. Supercells with isolated large hail are expected in the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should be more isolated with southward extent over eastern Mexico, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably weaker. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC MD 1089

1 year 3 months ago
MD 1089 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR BIG COUNTRY TO CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...Big Country to central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 310521Z - 310615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed as an MCS over the Big Country and Concho Valley continues for the next several hours into central Texas. DISCUSSION...An intensifying MCS over the TX Big Country has already produced hail reported up to 2.5 inches and a measured wind gust of 55 mph at the Fort Chadbourne West Texas Mesonet site. This MCS will likely propagate along the outflow from a leading MCS over central TX. A pronounced MLCAPE gradient with large buoyancy centered over parts of the Edwards Plateau into south-central TX will aid in maintaining potential for embedded hail with an increasing risk for severe wind gusts through the pre-dawn hours. ..Grams/Thompson.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32329945 32189912 31849839 31589783 31399768 31239703 30849672 30419697 30279722 30169754 30499833 30669913 31370040 31630044 31849990 32329945 Read more

SPC MD 1088

1 year 3 months ago
MD 1088 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357... FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1088 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357... Valid 310413Z - 310545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357 continues. SUMMARY...Gusty winds and marginally severe hail will be noted with a squall line as it progresses across the lower Mississippi Valley. DISCUSSION...Long-lived MCS that developed over the southern Plains of TX has matured and advanced across most of LA late this evening. Latest diagnostic data suggests a weak short-wave trough has progressed into AR/LA and this feature appears partly responsible for the expansive nature/organization of the complex. Over the next few hours the leading squall line will shift east of the primary instability axis and gradual weakening is expected. Until then, gusty winds are the main risk. ..Darrow.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30529195 32119197 32129060 30529063 30529195 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0357 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 357 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE LFT TO 25 ESE MLU. ..LYONS..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 357 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC029-033-037-077-091-107-121-125-310640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA TENSAS WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-021-037-063-157-310640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE FRANKLIN JEFFERSON WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu May 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west
of the coast of Central America is associated with a tropical wave
and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible through the weekend and early
next week while it moves slowly westward well to the south of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster

Discolored water in Belle Plaine, Iowa

1 year 3 months ago
Belle Plaine municipal water was discolored because there wasn’t enough water to flush the distribution system, according to a city administrator. The water remained safe to consume. Des Moines Register (Iowa), Nov 30, 2023

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0356 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 356 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW LCH TO 30 NNE LCH TO 25 WSW ESF TO 30 SW ELD. ..LYONS..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 356 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-039-079-097-310440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES EVANGELINE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0356 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 356 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW LCH TO 30 NNE LCH TO 25 WSW ESF TO 30 SW ELD. ..LYONS..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 356 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-039-079-097-310440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES EVANGELINE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more