Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday's storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday's storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday's storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday's storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday's storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday's storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday's storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday's storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday's storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday's storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday's storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday's storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday's storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. Read more

WW 0358 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SJT TO 25 NW TPL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091. ..GRAMS..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-031-053-055-099-145-149-171-209-281-287-299-309-319- 327-331-395-411-453-491-310940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BLANCO BURNET CALDWELL CORYELL FALLS FAYETTE GILLESPIE HAYS LAMPASAS LEE LLANO MCLENNAN MASON MENARD MILAM ROBERTSON SAN SABA TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1090 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358... FOR CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1090 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...Central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358... Valid 310706Z - 310830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358 continues. SUMMARY...The strong wind threat attendant to a QLCS may increase as it spreads east-southeast in central Texas. A brief tornado is also possible. DISCUSSION...A QLCS extending from Comanche to Concho County should continue to progress east-southeast across the Colorado River Valley of central TX. The northeast portion of the line has surged faster than the southwest portion, but is mainly crossing over the relatively cooler surface conditions north of prior convective outflow that extends from McCulloch County to the greater Austin area. Still, a gust to 44 kt was measured at the Brownwood AWOS. Farther south, closer to the remnant outflow boundary, a couple attempts at broader mesovortex formation have occurred within the enhanced low-level SRH environment. Additional attempts may yield corridors of enhanced severe wind gusts and potentially brief tornadogenesis as the QLCS impinges on the relatively warmer/more moist boundary-layer near/west of Austin. ..Grams.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32199857 32139790 31709731 31199677 30779677 30259716 30139763 30569851 30949937 31159969 31339954 31809884 32199857 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Surface troughing is expected to deepen across the northern and central Plains ahead of this shortwave, while an associated surface low moves northeastward from western SD into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will likely push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to spread into northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this shortwave as well, with the resulting combination of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates supporting airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development is expected from the Dakotas through NE and into northwestern KS as the cold front interacts with this destabilized airmass. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but likely still strong enough to support organized storm structures as the thunderstorm quickly grow upscale. General expectation is for an organized convective line to move from the central Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Southern and eastern extent of this line are uncertain, with the southern extent limited by warm mid-level temperatures and the eastern extent limited by the persistence of a cooler, more stable airmass. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms are also possible farther south across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, but strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Surface troughing is expected to deepen across the northern and central Plains ahead of this shortwave, while an associated surface low moves northeastward from western SD into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will likely push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to spread into northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this shortwave as well, with the resulting combination of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates supporting airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development is expected from the Dakotas through NE and into northwestern KS as the cold front interacts with this destabilized airmass. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but likely still strong enough to support organized storm structures as the thunderstorm quickly grow upscale. General expectation is for an organized convective line to move from the central Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Southern and eastern extent of this line are uncertain, with the southern extent limited by warm mid-level temperatures and the eastern extent limited by the persistence of a cooler, more stable airmass. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms are also possible farther south across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, but strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Surface troughing is expected to deepen across the northern and central Plains ahead of this shortwave, while an associated surface low moves northeastward from western SD into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will likely push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to spread into northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this shortwave as well, with the resulting combination of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates supporting airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development is expected from the Dakotas through NE and into northwestern KS as the cold front interacts with this destabilized airmass. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but likely still strong enough to support organized storm structures as the thunderstorm quickly grow upscale. General expectation is for an organized convective line to move from the central Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Southern and eastern extent of this line are uncertain, with the southern extent limited by warm mid-level temperatures and the eastern extent limited by the persistence of a cooler, more stable airmass. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms are also possible farther south across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, but strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Surface troughing is expected to deepen across the northern and central Plains ahead of this shortwave, while an associated surface low moves northeastward from western SD into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will likely push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to spread into northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this shortwave as well, with the resulting combination of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates supporting airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development is expected from the Dakotas through NE and into northwestern KS as the cold front interacts with this destabilized airmass. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but likely still strong enough to support organized storm structures as the thunderstorm quickly grow upscale. General expectation is for an organized convective line to move from the central Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Southern and eastern extent of this line are uncertain, with the southern extent limited by warm mid-level temperatures and the eastern extent limited by the persistence of a cooler, more stable airmass. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms are also possible farther south across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, but strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Surface troughing is expected to deepen across the northern and central Plains ahead of this shortwave, while an associated surface low moves northeastward from western SD into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to this low will likely push eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to spread into northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this shortwave as well, with the resulting combination of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates supporting airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development is expected from the Dakotas through NE and into northwestern KS as the cold front interacts with this destabilized airmass. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but likely still strong enough to support organized storm structures as the thunderstorm quickly grow upscale. General expectation is for an organized convective line to move from the central Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Southern and eastern extent of this line are uncertain, with the southern extent limited by warm mid-level temperatures and the eastern extent limited by the persistence of a cooler, more stable airmass. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms are also possible farther south across the southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, but strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast... Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength in both areas. ..Mosier.. 05/31/2024 Read more