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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N VCT TO 35 NW LBX TO 15 N HOU TO 20 ENE UTS. ..GRAMS..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-157-167-201-239-291-321-373-407-481-311340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARRIS JACKSON LIBERTY MATAGORDA POLK SAN JACINTO WHARTON GMZ330-335-350-355-311340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MATAGORDA BAY GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N VCT TO 35 NW LBX TO 15 N HOU TO 20 ENE UTS. ..GRAMS..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-157-167-201-239-291-321-373-407-481-311340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARRIS JACKSON LIBERTY MATAGORDA POLK SAN JACINTO WHARTON GMZ330-335-350-355-311340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MATAGORDA BAY GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM Read more

MD 1092 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358...359... FOR SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1092 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0545 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...Southeast TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...359... Valid 311045Z - 311215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358, 359 continues. SUMMARY...A strong to isolated severe wind threat should persist across southeast Texas as a QLCS shifts southeastward towards the Middle to Upper Texas Gulf Coast. DISCUSSION...Slowing forward speed to around 35-40 kts, along with gradually warming cloud tops suggests the arcing QLCS largely remains strong to marginally severe. Surface gusts of 45-60 mph have been common along the eastern two-thirds of the QLCS arc. Recent HRRR runs insist on a potential secondary surge towards the Middle to Upper TX Gulf Coast before it moves offshore. It is plausible that this could occur given the presence of a relatively pronounced MLCAPE gradient from a plume of large buoyancy still over south TX. But recent observational trends suggest this scenario may becoming less likely. ..Grams.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 31619571 31619519 31639491 30989436 30489440 29499515 29159597 29119648 29119695 29469780 29929792 30119772 30279703 30589629 31619571 Read more

WW 0358 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E JCT TO 25 W AUS TO 55 SE AUS. WW 358 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 311200Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092. ..GRAMS..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-055-171-209-311200- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO CALDWELL GILLESPIE HAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0358 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E JCT TO 25 W AUS TO 55 SE AUS. WW 358 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 311200Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092. ..GRAMS..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-055-171-209-311200- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO CALDWELL GILLESPIE HAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0358 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E JCT TO 25 W AUS TO 55 SE AUS. WW 358 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 311200Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092. ..GRAMS..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-055-171-209-311200- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO CALDWELL GILLESPIE HAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0358 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E JCT TO 25 W AUS TO 55 SE AUS. WW 358 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 311200Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092. ..GRAMS..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-055-171-209-311200- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO CALDWELL GILLESPIE HAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0358 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E JCT TO 25 W AUS TO 55 SE AUS. WW 358 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 311200Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092. ..GRAMS..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-055-171-209-311200- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO CALDWELL GILLESPIE HAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 358 SEVERE TSTM TX 310535Z - 311200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 358 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Friday morning from 1235 AM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms near San Angelo will likely persist through the overnight hours while moving southeastward into central Texas, potentially affecting the Austin area early this morning. Damaging winds of 60-75 mph will become the primary severe threat, though isolated large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter will be possible with any embedded supercells, and an isolated tornado or two could occur with embedded circulations. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Brownwood TX to 45 miles east of Austin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 357... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Thompson Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri May 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west
of the coast of Central America is associated with a tropical wave
and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development
of this system appears unlikely while it moves slowly westward well
to the south of the coast of Mexico through the weekend and early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci