Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more