Aggregator

WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0362 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0362 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 362 SEVERE TSTM TX 312225Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 362 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of intense thunderstorms has formed over west central Texas along a weak boundary. These storms may persist for several hours, tracking southeastward across the watch area. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main risks. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of San Angelo TX to 90 miles east of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 360...WW 361... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Hart Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 31 22:00:12 UTC 2024.

MD 1096 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST NM INTO PARTS OF WEST/CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...extreme southeast NM into parts of west/central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 312034Z - 312200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storm development is possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...An isolated strong storm has recently developed over Coleman County, TX, near a remnant outflow boundary, with other deepening cumulus noted across Pecos and Brewster Counties. With large-scale forcing expected to generally remain weak across the region, storm coverage into the early evening remains uncertain. However, at least isolated development may continue along the outflow boundary, and also in the region of deeper heating/mixing farther to the southwest. With strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear in place, the environment favors supercell potential, with an attendant threat of very large hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is possible if an uptick in severe storm coverage appears imminent. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30530318 31130344 32880351 33460270 33080057 31819893 31239819 31079823 30709862 30889913 31109968 31120046 30650099 30010185 29770251 30020285 30530318 Read more

WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0361 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0361 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0361 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 361 SEVERE TSTM CO 312145Z - 010500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 361 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop off the foothills and move across the plains of eastern Colorado this evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado is possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast of Limon CO to 35 miles west southwest of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 360... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1095 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CO/FAR SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST NM TO WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1095 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...Eastern CO/Far Southeast WY/Northeast NM to western OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 312000Z - 312130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon, initially across northeast New Mexico and eastern Colorado, and possibly far southeast Wyoming. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely for at least parts of the region. DISCUSSION...An expanding and deepening cu field continues to develop across the Colorado/northeast New Mexico mountains, where incipient thunderstorm development is noted, toward the Raton Mesa vicinity. Upper 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints are generally present across the adjacent High Plains, with ample insolation yielding weakening boundary layer inhibition and a trend toward moderate destabilization. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next few hours (into 3-5pm MDT), somewhat preferentially across the Raton Mesa vicinity, and northward toward the Palmer Divide. A few late-day/early evening severe storms might even occur in the evolving post-frontal regime/near a surface low across southeast Wyoming, even with persistent low clouds and formidable inhibition currently in place across far northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle. Easterly near-surface winds beneath modest strength westerlies will generally yield 35-45 kt of effective shear, sufficient for supercells and sustained multicells, although weaker westerlies will exist southward into and across eastern New Mexico. Large hail can be expected, and a brief tornado risk may also exist. Multiple southeastward-moving clusters should evolve regionally by early evening with severe-caliber wind gusts also a possibility. ..Guyer/Smith.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... LAT...LON 41180466 40390325 38900320 36680264 35460263 34970371 35370511 36440475 38220506 39950511 41180466 Read more

MD 1094 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1094 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...Northeast LA into central/southern MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311923Z - 312130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe-thunderstorm threat could evolve this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Several small, weakly rotating cells have developed this afternoon across east-central MS, within a weakly capped and moderately buoyant (MLCAPE of near or above 1000 J/kg) environment. While deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, vertical shear is somewhat enhanced by backed low-level flow near a retreating diffuse baroclinic zone, and a transient supercell or two cannot be ruled out, with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. Farther southwest, deep-layer shear is somewhat weaker south of the warm front, but MLCAPE increasing above 1500 J/kg and increasingly warm/moist surface conditions could support locally damaging winds as convection spreads northeastward out of Louisiana through the afternoon. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 33218859 32948836 32438833 31918838 31538864 31388872 31118968 31339105 31979123 32769120 33269028 33348962 33318922 33218859 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop over northern portions of the West through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next week. Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain West, especially the Southwest late next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more