Aggregator

MD 1098 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361... Valid 312344Z - 010115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW361 with the risk of damaging winds and hail. Storm coverage could increase this evening though storm evolution is uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 2330, UTC regional observations showed widely scattered clusters of strong to occasional severe storms ongoing across parts of eastern/southeastern CO. Thus far, severe storm coverage has remained somewhat limited within a modifying post-frontal upslope flow regime. Still the environment remains broadly favorable for damaging gusts and hail with ~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear over much of the watch areas. Later this evening into tonight, additional storm development will remain possible along the I-25 corridor. Numerous weak updrafts are present over the mountains and eastern foothills of the Rockies. Recent hi-res guidance and some observational trend suggest a few of these updrafts may eventually move east and mature with the onset of additional forcing from the nocturnal low-level jet. While conditional, severe storm coverage may increase in the next couple of hours and into the early overnight within the aforementioned favorable environment. Should this occur, hail and damaging winds appear likely, especially over northern and central portions of WW361. However, significant uncertainty in storm evolution remains. ..Lyons.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37000383 36980514 38200489 39520454 39920399 40140366 40180334 40100304 39860270 39550225 39450217 38530205 37090205 37010273 37000383 Read more

MD 1097 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360... FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1097 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...Western Oklahoma Panhandle...Western and Central Texas Panhandle...West Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360... Valid 312225Z - 010030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase across the southern High Plains over the next few hours. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a meso-low over southern Colorado with a surface trough extending southward across east-central New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms are developing in the higher terrain of northeast and east-central New Mexico. These storms will continue to move into the lower elevations over the next few hours. Surface dewpoints ahead of the storms generally range from the upper 40s to mid 50s F. This is contributing to about 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, according to the RAP. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Tucumcari has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots with considerable directional shear in the lowest 3 km. This should support a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts possible, as cells move southeastward into the Texas Panhandle and west Texas later this evening. If a cold pool can become organized, then the potential for severe wind gusts would increase. ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 36930333 36610384 35960399 35090396 34350385 34120369 33950327 33930282 34010239 34310207 34790185 35530169 36780184 36930333 Read more

Bonneville Power Administration, supplying power throughout the Northwest, projected a $280 million net loss this year due to drought and extreme weather. BPA's projection was roughly $375 million below its target for revenue, according to a recent public statement. Dry weather has also affected power generation, and Washington officials declared a drought emergency for the state. Yakima Herald-Republic (Wash.), May 30, 2024

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 360 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 360 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-021-037-041-059-010040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-010040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC017-069-111-117-205-279-341-359-369-375-381-421-010040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAILEY CASTRO DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY LAMB MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN Read more

WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0361 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0361 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0362 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1098 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361... Valid 312344Z - 010115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW361 with the risk of damaging winds and hail. Storm coverage could increase this evening though storm evolution is uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 2330, UTC regional observations showed widely scattered clusters of strong to occasional severe storms ongoing across parts of eastern/southeastern CO. Thus far, severe storm coverage has remained somewhat limited within a modifying post-frontal upslope flow regime. Still the environment remains broadly favorable for damaging gusts and hail with ~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear over much of the watch areas. Later this evening into tonight, additional storm development will remain possible along the I-25 corridor. Numerous weak updrafts are present over the mountains and eastern foothills of the Rockies. Recent hi-res guidance and some observational trend suggest a few of these updrafts may eventually move east and mature with the onset of additional forcing from the nocturnal low-level jet. While conditional, severe storm coverage may increase in the next couple of hours and into the early overnight within the aforementioned favorable environment. Should this occur, hail and damaging winds appear likely, especially over northern and central portions of WW361. However, significant uncertainty in storm evolution remains. ..Lyons.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37000383 36980514 38200489 39520454 39920399 40140366 40180334 40100304 39860270 39550225 39450217 38530205 37090205 37010273 37000383 Read more

MD 1097 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360... FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1097 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...Western Oklahoma Panhandle...Western and Central Texas Panhandle...West Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360... Valid 312225Z - 010030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase across the southern High Plains over the next few hours. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a meso-low over southern Colorado with a surface trough extending southward across east-central New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms are developing in the higher terrain of northeast and east-central New Mexico. These storms will continue to move into the lower elevations over the next few hours. Surface dewpoints ahead of the storms generally range from the upper 40s to mid 50s F. This is contributing to about 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, according to the RAP. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Tucumcari has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots with considerable directional shear in the lowest 3 km. This should support a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts possible, as cells move southeastward into the Texas Panhandle and west Texas later this evening. If a cold pool can become organized, then the potential for severe wind gusts would increase. ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 36930333 36610384 35960399 35090396 34350385 34120369 33950327 33930282 34010239 34310207 34790185 35530169 36780184 36930333 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west
of the coast of Central America is associated with a tropical wave
and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development
of this system appears unlikely as the disturbance moves slowly
westward well to the south of the coast of Mexico through the
weekend and early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 360 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 360 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-021-037-041-059-010040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-010040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC017-069-111-117-205-279-341-359-369-375-381-421-010040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAILEY CASTRO DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY LAMB MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN Read more

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 360 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 360 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-021-037-041-059-010040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-010040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC017-069-111-117-205-279-341-359-369-375-381-421-010040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAILEY CASTRO DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY LAMB MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN Read more

WW 360 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 312050Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 360 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Western Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the evening. Storms are forecast to grow upscale into one or more clusters capable of large hail and severe gusts. The risk for severe gusts will likely become the primary threat as outflow-driven storms move further into the Texas Panhandle and northern part of the Texas South Plains this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Guymon OK to 30 miles south of Cannon Afb NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0362 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0362 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 362 SEVERE TSTM TX 312225Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 362 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of intense thunderstorms has formed over west central Texas along a weak boundary. These storms may persist for several hours, tracking southeastward across the watch area. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main risks. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of San Angelo TX to 90 miles east of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 360...WW 361... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Hart Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 31 22:00:12 UTC 2024.

MD 1096 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST NM INTO PARTS OF WEST/CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...extreme southeast NM into parts of west/central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 312034Z - 312200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storm development is possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...An isolated strong storm has recently developed over Coleman County, TX, near a remnant outflow boundary, with other deepening cumulus noted across Pecos and Brewster Counties. With large-scale forcing expected to generally remain weak across the region, storm coverage into the early evening remains uncertain. However, at least isolated development may continue along the outflow boundary, and also in the region of deeper heating/mixing farther to the southwest. With strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear in place, the environment favors supercell potential, with an attendant threat of very large hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is possible if an uptick in severe storm coverage appears imminent. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30530318 31130344 32880351 33460270 33080057 31819893 31239819 31079823 30709862 30889913 31109968 31120046 30650099 30010185 29770251 30020285 30530318 Read more

WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0361 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0361 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more