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MD 1081 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado and western into northern Nebraska and far southern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301927Z - 302100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated severe hail/wind gusts may accompany the stronger thunderstorms across portions of the central Plains as storm coverage increases into the afternoon. Given likely low severe coverage a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a diffuse cold front that is meandering across northeast Colorado into eastern South Dakota. Storm coverage will increase through the afternoon since deep-layer ascent will increase as a mid-level trough grazes the central Plains to the north. Given the northward passage of the mid-level trough and associated stronger flow aloft, the more favorable deep-layer shear will lag the cold front, so the thunderstorms ahead of the front are not expected to become organized on a widespread basis (precluding a WW issuance at this time). However, 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading low 60s F surface dewpoints will yield up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots, suggesting that at least isolated instances of severe wind or hail may accompany the stronger storms. 19Z mesoanalysis also shows strong low-level vertical vorticity coinciding with over 125 J/kg of CAPE in the 0-3 km layer. As such, conditional potential exists for a landspout if a strong updraft can anchor to the cold front. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 39410348 41460085 43619890 44559781 44069755 43219788 42039863 40999938 40310071 39110268 39060333 39410348 Read more

WW 0354 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0354 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1079 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...far southeast Colorado...and far southwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301757Z - 302030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing over portions of the southern High Plains. Severe wind and hail are the main threats, with some instances of hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter and gusts exceeding 65 kts possible. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed within the next few hours pending favorable convective trends. DISCUSSION...Adequate insolation across the southern High Plains continues to modify a post-convective airmss, with CU and attempts at convective initiation noted from Union County, NM to Oldham County, TX. 17Z mesoanalysis indicates that appreciable MLCINH remains across the warm sector. However, continued diurnal heating amid clearing skies should erode remaining CINH and support greater storm development and coverage as the afternoon progresses. Thunderstorm development is most likely along baroclinic boundaries currently positioned along the NM/CO/KS border areas, and over the western TX Panhandle. By mid afternoon, surface temperatures should warm into the 80s F in most locations as 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the southern High Plains, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings depict hodographs with modest low-level elongation and some curvature, but short segments in the mid to upper-levels, limiting effective bulk shear values to around 30-35 kts. As such, multicells and transient supercells are the expected mode of convection. Given ample buoyancy and at least modest deep-layer shear, severe wind and hail still appear likely with the more organized, longer-lasting thunderstorms. If a more robust supercell structure could be realized, 2+ inch diameter hail could occur. With forecast soundings showing the boundary layer becoming potentially well-mixed to almost 700 mb, a 65+ kt gust cannot be ruled out. Finally, ample low-level vertical vorticity is present in far southeastern Colorado in the presence of a weak surface low. If a thunderstorm can traverse this environment without becoming quickly outflow dominant, a landspout or hybrid supercell tornado is possible. A WW issuance may be needed in the next few hours if greater thunderstorm coverage become apparent. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 35910015 35270036 34990109 34960232 35130297 35790345 36500391 37130385 37730329 38300213 38330111 38150057 37610022 36950008 35910015 Read more

WW 0353 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 353 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 353 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-027-035-041-051-073-093-099-139-143-145-161-183-193- 213-217-221-225-251-257-281-289-293-309-313-331-333-347-349-379- 395-401-423-425-455-459-467-499-302140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL BOSQUE BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE COMANCHE CORYELL ELLIS ERATH FALLS FREESTONE GREGG HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOUSTON JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MILLS NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO RAINS ROBERTSON RUSK SMITH SOMERVELL TRINITY UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0352 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 352 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 352 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-021-037-041-059-302140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-302140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-111-117-125-129-153-169-179-189- 191-195-205-219-233-263-279-303-305-341-345-357-359-369-375-381- 393-421-437-445-501-302140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more