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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Expanded the marginal/slight risk farther west into New Mexico and shifted the enhanced south in West Texas based on the continued west-southward movement of the outflow boundary. Strong heating is allowing moderate to strong destabilization north of this boundary with remnant low 60s dewpoints. Therefore, additional strong to severe storms are likely north of this boundary. However, the greater severe coverage and threat should be along and near the outflow boundary. See MCD #1079 and #1080 for additional information regarding the storm threat from southwest Kansas to the Texas Big Bend. Made a slight northward adjustment to the marginal risk across eastern South Dakota based on the location of the current synoptic front and thunderstorm development. Isolated severe storms remain likely. See MCD #1081 for additional discussion about the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Expanded the marginal/slight risk farther west into New Mexico and shifted the enhanced south in West Texas based on the continued west-southward movement of the outflow boundary. Strong heating is allowing moderate to strong destabilization north of this boundary with remnant low 60s dewpoints. Therefore, additional strong to severe storms are likely north of this boundary. However, the greater severe coverage and threat should be along and near the outflow boundary. See MCD #1079 and #1080 for additional information regarding the storm threat from southwest Kansas to the Texas Big Bend. Made a slight northward adjustment to the marginal risk across eastern South Dakota based on the location of the current synoptic front and thunderstorm development. Isolated severe storms remain likely. See MCD #1081 for additional discussion about the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Expanded the marginal/slight risk farther west into New Mexico and shifted the enhanced south in West Texas based on the continued west-southward movement of the outflow boundary. Strong heating is allowing moderate to strong destabilization north of this boundary with remnant low 60s dewpoints. Therefore, additional strong to severe storms are likely north of this boundary. However, the greater severe coverage and threat should be along and near the outflow boundary. See MCD #1079 and #1080 for additional information regarding the storm threat from southwest Kansas to the Texas Big Bend. Made a slight northward adjustment to the marginal risk across eastern South Dakota based on the location of the current synoptic front and thunderstorm development. Isolated severe storms remain likely. See MCD #1081 for additional discussion about the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Expanded the marginal/slight risk farther west into New Mexico and shifted the enhanced south in West Texas based on the continued west-southward movement of the outflow boundary. Strong heating is allowing moderate to strong destabilization north of this boundary with remnant low 60s dewpoints. Therefore, additional strong to severe storms are likely north of this boundary. However, the greater severe coverage and threat should be along and near the outflow boundary. See MCD #1079 and #1080 for additional information regarding the storm threat from southwest Kansas to the Texas Big Bend. Made a slight northward adjustment to the marginal risk across eastern South Dakota based on the location of the current synoptic front and thunderstorm development. Isolated severe storms remain likely. See MCD #1081 for additional discussion about the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Expanded the marginal/slight risk farther west into New Mexico and shifted the enhanced south in West Texas based on the continued west-southward movement of the outflow boundary. Strong heating is allowing moderate to strong destabilization north of this boundary with remnant low 60s dewpoints. Therefore, additional strong to severe storms are likely north of this boundary. However, the greater severe coverage and threat should be along and near the outflow boundary. See MCD #1079 and #1080 for additional information regarding the storm threat from southwest Kansas to the Texas Big Bend. Made a slight northward adjustment to the marginal risk across eastern South Dakota based on the location of the current synoptic front and thunderstorm development. Isolated severe storms remain likely. See MCD #1081 for additional discussion about the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. Read more

WW 0353 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0353 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1078 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1078 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of western and central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 301750Z - 301945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms organizing into a line or bow are expected to develop and shift south/southeast through early evening. Damaging gusts and large hail will be possible with this activity. DISCUSSION...Convection is developing along an outflow boundary stretching across the Texas South Plains into north-central Texas. This boundary is being reinforced and shunted southward from ongoing convection over northwest Texas. Low-level flow ahead of the outflow is not overly strong at only about 10 kt from the south/southeast. As a result, the outflow may continue to shift south through the afternoon. This is resulting in some uncertainty, as outflow may outpace developing convection along the boundary. CAMs guidance differs in the evolution of the boundary and convection tied to it. Nevertheless, a moist and very unstable airmass is in place downstream. Vertical shear will also increase modestly through the afternoon. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential from a developing bowing line of storms is present. Severe gusts to 80 mph and isolated large hail will be possible should a well-organized, southward-propagating band of storms develop. Trends will be monitored and a watch will likely be needed this afternoon, though timing is a bit uncertain. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30640074 30770095 31220136 32060142 32320128 32510111 32499931 32489822 32209786 31549745 31099721 30809717 30529720 30359740 30249759 30089876 30289971 30640074 Read more

MD 1077 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH/EAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1077 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of north/east TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301724Z - 301930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage/intensity through the afternoon. Strong gusts to 50-65 mph are possible, along with isolated large hail. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop early this afternoon across north into northeast TX to the south and and east of an outflow boundary and ongoing line of storms near the Red River. This activity is developing in a very moist airmass (low to mid 70s F dewpoints). Strong heating into the 80s and midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km are contributing to strong instability (2000-3000 J/kg). This will support robust updrafts, however, vertical shear is expected to be somewhat modest with eastward extent across northeast TX. As a result, stronger updrafts may be transient and overall storm organization more messy. Nevertheless, isolated gusts in the 50-65 mph range appear possible, along with a few instances of large hail. If thunderstorm clusters can organize via consolidating outflow/cold pool generation, a line of storms may develop and shift east/southeast. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will increase. However, this scenario remains uncertain. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance within the next couple of hours. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 31039591 30929647 31099719 31369767 32079791 32499797 32659782 32829753 32959647 32969558 32649491 32249468 31879467 31289509 31039591 Read more

WW 0352 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0352 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu May 30 19:15:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico tomorrow. ERC-Y values in this area are tracking near to above normal for this time of year, which is between the 75th-90th annual percentiles. Additionally, gusty outflow winds reaching severe criteria are possible with some of these storms. Given the limited overlap of receptive fuels and potential drier lightning and that this area has had multiple consecutive days of thunderstorms, an Iso DryT was not included. However, this area will be monitored for possible holdovers in the coming days as warmer and drier conditions with stronger winds are likely to develop. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico tomorrow. ERC-Y values in this area are tracking near to above normal for this time of year, which is between the 75th-90th annual percentiles. Additionally, gusty outflow winds reaching severe criteria are possible with some of these storms. Given the limited overlap of receptive fuels and potential drier lightning and that this area has had multiple consecutive days of thunderstorms, an Iso DryT was not included. However, this area will be monitored for possible holdovers in the coming days as warmer and drier conditions with stronger winds are likely to develop. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico tomorrow. ERC-Y values in this area are tracking near to above normal for this time of year, which is between the 75th-90th annual percentiles. Additionally, gusty outflow winds reaching severe criteria are possible with some of these storms. Given the limited overlap of receptive fuels and potential drier lightning and that this area has had multiple consecutive days of thunderstorms, an Iso DryT was not included. However, this area will be monitored for possible holdovers in the coming days as warmer and drier conditions with stronger winds are likely to develop. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico tomorrow. ERC-Y values in this area are tracking near to above normal for this time of year, which is between the 75th-90th annual percentiles. Additionally, gusty outflow winds reaching severe criteria are possible with some of these storms. Given the limited overlap of receptive fuels and potential drier lightning and that this area has had multiple consecutive days of thunderstorms, an Iso DryT was not included. However, this area will be monitored for possible holdovers in the coming days as warmer and drier conditions with stronger winds are likely to develop. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico tomorrow. ERC-Y values in this area are tracking near to above normal for this time of year, which is between the 75th-90th annual percentiles. Additionally, gusty outflow winds reaching severe criteria are possible with some of these storms. Given the limited overlap of receptive fuels and potential drier lightning and that this area has had multiple consecutive days of thunderstorms, an Iso DryT was not included. However, this area will be monitored for possible holdovers in the coming days as warmer and drier conditions with stronger winds are likely to develop. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico tomorrow. ERC-Y values in this area are tracking near to above normal for this time of year, which is between the 75th-90th annual percentiles. Additionally, gusty outflow winds reaching severe criteria are possible with some of these storms. Given the limited overlap of receptive fuels and potential drier lightning and that this area has had multiple consecutive days of thunderstorms, an Iso DryT was not included. However, this area will be monitored for possible holdovers in the coming days as warmer and drier conditions with stronger winds are likely to develop. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico tomorrow. ERC-Y values in this area are tracking near to above normal for this time of year, which is between the 75th-90th annual percentiles. Additionally, gusty outflow winds reaching severe criteria are possible with some of these storms. Given the limited overlap of receptive fuels and potential drier lightning and that this area has had multiple consecutive days of thunderstorms, an Iso DryT was not included. However, this area will be monitored for possible holdovers in the coming days as warmer and drier conditions with stronger winds are likely to develop. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico tomorrow. ERC-Y values in this area are tracking near to above normal for this time of year, which is between the 75th-90th annual percentiles. Additionally, gusty outflow winds reaching severe criteria are possible with some of these storms. Given the limited overlap of receptive fuels and potential drier lightning and that this area has had multiple consecutive days of thunderstorms, an Iso DryT was not included. However, this area will be monitored for possible holdovers in the coming days as warmer and drier conditions with stronger winds are likely to develop. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico tomorrow. ERC-Y values in this area are tracking near to above normal for this time of year, which is between the 75th-90th annual percentiles. Additionally, gusty outflow winds reaching severe criteria are possible with some of these storms. Given the limited overlap of receptive fuels and potential drier lightning and that this area has had multiple consecutive days of thunderstorms, an Iso DryT was not included. However, this area will be monitored for possible holdovers in the coming days as warmer and drier conditions with stronger winds are likely to develop. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico tomorrow. ERC-Y values in this area are tracking near to above normal for this time of year, which is between the 75th-90th annual percentiles. Additionally, gusty outflow winds reaching severe criteria are possible with some of these storms. Given the limited overlap of receptive fuels and potential drier lightning and that this area has had multiple consecutive days of thunderstorms, an Iso DryT was not included. However, this area will be monitored for possible holdovers in the coming days as warmer and drier conditions with stronger winds are likely to develop. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more