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The countywide burn ban in Kendall County was reestablished because the Keetch-Byram Drought Index was above 500. Outdoor burning was not permitted in unincorporated portions of the county until further notice. The ban will last 90 days unless it is renewed. The Boerne Star (Texas), July 10, 2024

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 10 13:54:02 UTC 2024.

Corn in Columbus County was drying up for lack of rain. One farmer stated that his crop was “pretty much history” and lamented that it would take years to get past the financial hardship of losing the crop. While the corn ought to be six to seven feet tall, it was just three to four feet in height. The corn may not produce ears, but the soybeans may survive if rain falls. WECT-TV Channel 6 (Wilmington, N.C.), July 9, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are possible over parts of western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern will continue to be characterized by mean troughing over the Great Lakes and ridging in the west. An anchoring anticyclone -- centered near LAS -- should remain quasistationary over the Great Basin, lower Colorado River Valley, Southeastern CA and much of AZ. In the Great Lakes regime, a leading/strong shortwave trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from Lake Michigan to the Mid-South, containing an intermittently closed 700-500-mb circulation on the north end, over Lake Michigan. Associated cyclonic flow includes the increasingly diffuse midlevel remains of Beryl, with a warm axis aloft still apparent in 700- 500-mb charts east/southeast of the shortwave perturbation's thermal trough. This complex feature is forecast to eject northeastward by 00Z to the neck of ON, Lake Huron, southeastern Lower MI, and the MIE area. Overnight, the trough should lose amplitude while reaching southwestern QC and the Lower Great Lakes. Upstream, a fairly prominent, compact, shortwave trough and PV anomaly were located over MN and eastern SD. This feature should pivot southeastward to IA by 00Z, then parts of northwestern IL and northeastern MO by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over northwestern OH, with cold front across eastern parts of KY/TN, to southern AL, becoming quasistationary near the LA coastline. A slow-moving warm front was drawn from the low across the western NY/PA line to near ALB, then over central New England. By 00Z, the cold front should extend from an occlusion triple point over (or just south of) Lake Ontario, across west-central NY, central parts of PA/VA/NC, to southern GA, becoming quasistationary and frontolytic over southern parts of AL/MS/LA. The warm front should move slowly northward over western, central and northern NY today, decelerating/stalling across the higher terrain from the Adirondacks eastward across VT/NH/western ME. The cold front also should decelerate as it shifts eastward over the Atlantic Seaboard, extending by 12Z from a triple point over northern parts of VT or NH across western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and near-coastal NC, to a deepening low offshore from MYR. A prefrontal trough should shift eastward today over parts of NY/PA, while a post-frontal trough (with some mass-response reinforcement by the northwest-flow shortwave trough) should move southward over parts of IA, NE and northern IL. ...Northeastern CONUS... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front , especially near the prefrontal trough (with that activity ultimately evolving upscale into a line. All severe hazards will be possible from relatively discrete convection (including potential for several supercells) from the early-stage, pre-linear regime, and perhaps even in the warm sector to its east. Tornado potential should be relatively maximized near the warm front, where backed near-surface winds will contribute to enlarged low-level hodographs and enhanced storm-relative flow in the boundary layer. The corridor of greatest tornado probabilities is narrow, and may need to be shifted around today as mesoscale trends suggest (especially with regard to warm-frontal position). However, at least marginally favorable low-level shear for embedded supercellular or QLCS mesovortex tornado potential is possible as far south as the western/upper Chesapeake Bay region. Ample low-level moisture is in place, and will continue over the area, with surface dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s along and south of the warm front. This will contribute to low LCL and, in concert with diurnal heating that satellite imagery suggests should be common, will yield peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range ahead of the main convective band. Activity should weaken in and near eastern parts of the "slight" to "marginal" probabilities this evening as it encounters a more-stable boundary layer. ...NM and west TX... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon -- preferentially over higher elevations as diurnal heating removes MLCINH. Activity then should move generally southward over deeper, straggly heated/mixed, yet favorably moist boundary layers to sustain convective potential, and also, to support isolated severe gusts from the most vigorous downdrafts. Forecast soundings show mixed/subcloud layers extending well above 700 mb, yet still beneath 300-800 J/kg MLCAPE. Although strong veering with height is expected over much of this area, very weak low/middle-level wind speeds and lack of appreciable vertical shear will limit convective organization and coverage of the severe threat overall. ...IA and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, with isolated severe hail and a few damaging to severe gusts possible. Activity should form in a weak-MLCINH airmass near the surface trough, destabilizing through the lower/middle troposphere via a combination of diurnal surface heating, low-level warm/theta-e advection, and DCVA-forced cooling aloft that precedes the shortwave trough. These factors, with surface dewpoints generally remaining in the upper 50s to mid 60s F through the boundary-layer heating/mixing cycle, should support a meso-alpha scale patch of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. With weak low/middle-level winds and shear, the main mode should be multicellular, with isolated pulse severe, before evening boundary-layer cooling reduces instability and convective coverage/intensity. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are possible over parts of western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern will continue to be characterized by mean troughing over the Great Lakes and ridging in the west. An anchoring anticyclone -- centered near LAS -- should remain quasistationary over the Great Basin, lower Colorado River Valley, Southeastern CA and much of AZ. In the Great Lakes regime, a leading/strong shortwave trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from Lake Michigan to the Mid-South, containing an intermittently closed 700-500-mb circulation on the north end, over Lake Michigan. Associated cyclonic flow includes the increasingly diffuse midlevel remains of Beryl, with a warm axis aloft still apparent in 700- 500-mb charts east/southeast of the shortwave perturbation's thermal trough. This complex feature is forecast to eject northeastward by 00Z to the neck of ON, Lake Huron, southeastern Lower MI, and the MIE area. Overnight, the trough should lose amplitude while reaching southwestern QC and the Lower Great Lakes. Upstream, a fairly prominent, compact, shortwave trough and PV anomaly were located over MN and eastern SD. This feature should pivot southeastward to IA by 00Z, then parts of northwestern IL and northeastern MO by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over northwestern OH, with cold front across eastern parts of KY/TN, to southern AL, becoming quasistationary near the LA coastline. A slow-moving warm front was drawn from the low across the western NY/PA line to near ALB, then over central New England. By 00Z, the cold front should extend from an occlusion triple point over (or just south of) Lake Ontario, across west-central NY, central parts of PA/VA/NC, to southern GA, becoming quasistationary and frontolytic over southern parts of AL/MS/LA. The warm front should move slowly northward over western, central and northern NY today, decelerating/stalling across the higher terrain from the Adirondacks eastward across VT/NH/western ME. The cold front also should decelerate as it shifts eastward over the Atlantic Seaboard, extending by 12Z from a triple point over northern parts of VT or NH across western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and near-coastal NC, to a deepening low offshore from MYR. A prefrontal trough should shift eastward today over parts of NY/PA, while a post-frontal trough (with some mass-response reinforcement by the northwest-flow shortwave trough) should move southward over parts of IA, NE and northern IL. ...Northeastern CONUS... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front , especially near the prefrontal trough (with that activity ultimately evolving upscale into a line. All severe hazards will be possible from relatively discrete convection (including potential for several supercells) from the early-stage, pre-linear regime, and perhaps even in the warm sector to its east. Tornado potential should be relatively maximized near the warm front, where backed near-surface winds will contribute to enlarged low-level hodographs and enhanced storm-relative flow in the boundary layer. The corridor of greatest tornado probabilities is narrow, and may need to be shifted around today as mesoscale trends suggest (especially with regard to warm-frontal position). However, at least marginally favorable low-level shear for embedded supercellular or QLCS mesovortex tornado potential is possible as far south as the western/upper Chesapeake Bay region. Ample low-level moisture is in place, and will continue over the area, with surface dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s along and south of the warm front. This will contribute to low LCL and, in concert with diurnal heating that satellite imagery suggests should be common, will yield peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range ahead of the main convective band. Activity should weaken in and near eastern parts of the "slight" to "marginal" probabilities this evening as it encounters a more-stable boundary layer. ...NM and west TX... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon -- preferentially over higher elevations as diurnal heating removes MLCINH. Activity then should move generally southward over deeper, straggly heated/mixed, yet favorably moist boundary layers to sustain convective potential, and also, to support isolated severe gusts from the most vigorous downdrafts. Forecast soundings show mixed/subcloud layers extending well above 700 mb, yet still beneath 300-800 J/kg MLCAPE. Although strong veering with height is expected over much of this area, very weak low/middle-level wind speeds and lack of appreciable vertical shear will limit convective organization and coverage of the severe threat overall. ...IA and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, with isolated severe hail and a few damaging to severe gusts possible. Activity should form in a weak-MLCINH airmass near the surface trough, destabilizing through the lower/middle troposphere via a combination of diurnal surface heating, low-level warm/theta-e advection, and DCVA-forced cooling aloft that precedes the shortwave trough. These factors, with surface dewpoints generally remaining in the upper 50s to mid 60s F through the boundary-layer heating/mixing cycle, should support a meso-alpha scale patch of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. With weak low/middle-level winds and shear, the main mode should be multicellular, with isolated pulse severe, before evening boundary-layer cooling reduces instability and convective coverage/intensity. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are possible over parts of western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern will continue to be characterized by mean troughing over the Great Lakes and ridging in the west. An anchoring anticyclone -- centered near LAS -- should remain quasistationary over the Great Basin, lower Colorado River Valley, Southeastern CA and much of AZ. In the Great Lakes regime, a leading/strong shortwave trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from Lake Michigan to the Mid-South, containing an intermittently closed 700-500-mb circulation on the north end, over Lake Michigan. Associated cyclonic flow includes the increasingly diffuse midlevel remains of Beryl, with a warm axis aloft still apparent in 700- 500-mb charts east/southeast of the shortwave perturbation's thermal trough. This complex feature is forecast to eject northeastward by 00Z to the neck of ON, Lake Huron, southeastern Lower MI, and the MIE area. Overnight, the trough should lose amplitude while reaching southwestern QC and the Lower Great Lakes. Upstream, a fairly prominent, compact, shortwave trough and PV anomaly were located over MN and eastern SD. This feature should pivot southeastward to IA by 00Z, then parts of northwestern IL and northeastern MO by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over northwestern OH, with cold front across eastern parts of KY/TN, to southern AL, becoming quasistationary near the LA coastline. A slow-moving warm front was drawn from the low across the western NY/PA line to near ALB, then over central New England. By 00Z, the cold front should extend from an occlusion triple point over (or just south of) Lake Ontario, across west-central NY, central parts of PA/VA/NC, to southern GA, becoming quasistationary and frontolytic over southern parts of AL/MS/LA. The warm front should move slowly northward over western, central and northern NY today, decelerating/stalling across the higher terrain from the Adirondacks eastward across VT/NH/western ME. The cold front also should decelerate as it shifts eastward over the Atlantic Seaboard, extending by 12Z from a triple point over northern parts of VT or NH across western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and near-coastal NC, to a deepening low offshore from MYR. A prefrontal trough should shift eastward today over parts of NY/PA, while a post-frontal trough (with some mass-response reinforcement by the northwest-flow shortwave trough) should move southward over parts of IA, NE and northern IL. ...Northeastern CONUS... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front , especially near the prefrontal trough (with that activity ultimately evolving upscale into a line. All severe hazards will be possible from relatively discrete convection (including potential for several supercells) from the early-stage, pre-linear regime, and perhaps even in the warm sector to its east. Tornado potential should be relatively maximized near the warm front, where backed near-surface winds will contribute to enlarged low-level hodographs and enhanced storm-relative flow in the boundary layer. The corridor of greatest tornado probabilities is narrow, and may need to be shifted around today as mesoscale trends suggest (especially with regard to warm-frontal position). However, at least marginally favorable low-level shear for embedded supercellular or QLCS mesovortex tornado potential is possible as far south as the western/upper Chesapeake Bay region. Ample low-level moisture is in place, and will continue over the area, with surface dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s along and south of the warm front. This will contribute to low LCL and, in concert with diurnal heating that satellite imagery suggests should be common, will yield peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range ahead of the main convective band. Activity should weaken in and near eastern parts of the "slight" to "marginal" probabilities this evening as it encounters a more-stable boundary layer. ...NM and west TX... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon -- preferentially over higher elevations as diurnal heating removes MLCINH. Activity then should move generally southward over deeper, straggly heated/mixed, yet favorably moist boundary layers to sustain convective potential, and also, to support isolated severe gusts from the most vigorous downdrafts. Forecast soundings show mixed/subcloud layers extending well above 700 mb, yet still beneath 300-800 J/kg MLCAPE. Although strong veering with height is expected over much of this area, very weak low/middle-level wind speeds and lack of appreciable vertical shear will limit convective organization and coverage of the severe threat overall. ...IA and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, with isolated severe hail and a few damaging to severe gusts possible. Activity should form in a weak-MLCINH airmass near the surface trough, destabilizing through the lower/middle troposphere via a combination of diurnal surface heating, low-level warm/theta-e advection, and DCVA-forced cooling aloft that precedes the shortwave trough. These factors, with surface dewpoints generally remaining in the upper 50s to mid 60s F through the boundary-layer heating/mixing cycle, should support a meso-alpha scale patch of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. With weak low/middle-level winds and shear, the main mode should be multicellular, with isolated pulse severe, before evening boundary-layer cooling reduces instability and convective coverage/intensity. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are possible over parts of western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern will continue to be characterized by mean troughing over the Great Lakes and ridging in the west. An anchoring anticyclone -- centered near LAS -- should remain quasistationary over the Great Basin, lower Colorado River Valley, Southeastern CA and much of AZ. In the Great Lakes regime, a leading/strong shortwave trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from Lake Michigan to the Mid-South, containing an intermittently closed 700-500-mb circulation on the north end, over Lake Michigan. Associated cyclonic flow includes the increasingly diffuse midlevel remains of Beryl, with a warm axis aloft still apparent in 700- 500-mb charts east/southeast of the shortwave perturbation's thermal trough. This complex feature is forecast to eject northeastward by 00Z to the neck of ON, Lake Huron, southeastern Lower MI, and the MIE area. Overnight, the trough should lose amplitude while reaching southwestern QC and the Lower Great Lakes. Upstream, a fairly prominent, compact, shortwave trough and PV anomaly were located over MN and eastern SD. This feature should pivot southeastward to IA by 00Z, then parts of northwestern IL and northeastern MO by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over northwestern OH, with cold front across eastern parts of KY/TN, to southern AL, becoming quasistationary near the LA coastline. A slow-moving warm front was drawn from the low across the western NY/PA line to near ALB, then over central New England. By 00Z, the cold front should extend from an occlusion triple point over (or just south of) Lake Ontario, across west-central NY, central parts of PA/VA/NC, to southern GA, becoming quasistationary and frontolytic over southern parts of AL/MS/LA. The warm front should move slowly northward over western, central and northern NY today, decelerating/stalling across the higher terrain from the Adirondacks eastward across VT/NH/western ME. The cold front also should decelerate as it shifts eastward over the Atlantic Seaboard, extending by 12Z from a triple point over northern parts of VT or NH across western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and near-coastal NC, to a deepening low offshore from MYR. A prefrontal trough should shift eastward today over parts of NY/PA, while a post-frontal trough (with some mass-response reinforcement by the northwest-flow shortwave trough) should move southward over parts of IA, NE and northern IL. ...Northeastern CONUS... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front , especially near the prefrontal trough (with that activity ultimately evolving upscale into a line. All severe hazards will be possible from relatively discrete convection (including potential for several supercells) from the early-stage, pre-linear regime, and perhaps even in the warm sector to its east. Tornado potential should be relatively maximized near the warm front, where backed near-surface winds will contribute to enlarged low-level hodographs and enhanced storm-relative flow in the boundary layer. The corridor of greatest tornado probabilities is narrow, and may need to be shifted around today as mesoscale trends suggest (especially with regard to warm-frontal position). However, at least marginally favorable low-level shear for embedded supercellular or QLCS mesovortex tornado potential is possible as far south as the western/upper Chesapeake Bay region. Ample low-level moisture is in place, and will continue over the area, with surface dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s along and south of the warm front. This will contribute to low LCL and, in concert with diurnal heating that satellite imagery suggests should be common, will yield peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range ahead of the main convective band. Activity should weaken in and near eastern parts of the "slight" to "marginal" probabilities this evening as it encounters a more-stable boundary layer. ...NM and west TX... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon -- preferentially over higher elevations as diurnal heating removes MLCINH. Activity then should move generally southward over deeper, straggly heated/mixed, yet favorably moist boundary layers to sustain convective potential, and also, to support isolated severe gusts from the most vigorous downdrafts. Forecast soundings show mixed/subcloud layers extending well above 700 mb, yet still beneath 300-800 J/kg MLCAPE. Although strong veering with height is expected over much of this area, very weak low/middle-level wind speeds and lack of appreciable vertical shear will limit convective organization and coverage of the severe threat overall. ...IA and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, with isolated severe hail and a few damaging to severe gusts possible. Activity should form in a weak-MLCINH airmass near the surface trough, destabilizing through the lower/middle troposphere via a combination of diurnal surface heating, low-level warm/theta-e advection, and DCVA-forced cooling aloft that precedes the shortwave trough. These factors, with surface dewpoints generally remaining in the upper 50s to mid 60s F through the boundary-layer heating/mixing cycle, should support a meso-alpha scale patch of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. With weak low/middle-level winds and shear, the main mode should be multicellular, with isolated pulse severe, before evening boundary-layer cooling reduces instability and convective coverage/intensity. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are possible over parts of western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern will continue to be characterized by mean troughing over the Great Lakes and ridging in the west. An anchoring anticyclone -- centered near LAS -- should remain quasistationary over the Great Basin, lower Colorado River Valley, Southeastern CA and much of AZ. In the Great Lakes regime, a leading/strong shortwave trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from Lake Michigan to the Mid-South, containing an intermittently closed 700-500-mb circulation on the north end, over Lake Michigan. Associated cyclonic flow includes the increasingly diffuse midlevel remains of Beryl, with a warm axis aloft still apparent in 700- 500-mb charts east/southeast of the shortwave perturbation's thermal trough. This complex feature is forecast to eject northeastward by 00Z to the neck of ON, Lake Huron, southeastern Lower MI, and the MIE area. Overnight, the trough should lose amplitude while reaching southwestern QC and the Lower Great Lakes. Upstream, a fairly prominent, compact, shortwave trough and PV anomaly were located over MN and eastern SD. This feature should pivot southeastward to IA by 00Z, then parts of northwestern IL and northeastern MO by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over northwestern OH, with cold front across eastern parts of KY/TN, to southern AL, becoming quasistationary near the LA coastline. A slow-moving warm front was drawn from the low across the western NY/PA line to near ALB, then over central New England. By 00Z, the cold front should extend from an occlusion triple point over (or just south of) Lake Ontario, across west-central NY, central parts of PA/VA/NC, to southern GA, becoming quasistationary and frontolytic over southern parts of AL/MS/LA. The warm front should move slowly northward over western, central and northern NY today, decelerating/stalling across the higher terrain from the Adirondacks eastward across VT/NH/western ME. The cold front also should decelerate as it shifts eastward over the Atlantic Seaboard, extending by 12Z from a triple point over northern parts of VT or NH across western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and near-coastal NC, to a deepening low offshore from MYR. A prefrontal trough should shift eastward today over parts of NY/PA, while a post-frontal trough (with some mass-response reinforcement by the northwest-flow shortwave trough) should move southward over parts of IA, NE and northern IL. ...Northeastern CONUS... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front , especially near the prefrontal trough (with that activity ultimately evolving upscale into a line. All severe hazards will be possible from relatively discrete convection (including potential for several supercells) from the early-stage, pre-linear regime, and perhaps even in the warm sector to its east. Tornado potential should be relatively maximized near the warm front, where backed near-surface winds will contribute to enlarged low-level hodographs and enhanced storm-relative flow in the boundary layer. The corridor of greatest tornado probabilities is narrow, and may need to be shifted around today as mesoscale trends suggest (especially with regard to warm-frontal position). However, at least marginally favorable low-level shear for embedded supercellular or QLCS mesovortex tornado potential is possible as far south as the western/upper Chesapeake Bay region. Ample low-level moisture is in place, and will continue over the area, with surface dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s along and south of the warm front. This will contribute to low LCL and, in concert with diurnal heating that satellite imagery suggests should be common, will yield peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range ahead of the main convective band. Activity should weaken in and near eastern parts of the "slight" to "marginal" probabilities this evening as it encounters a more-stable boundary layer. ...NM and west TX... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon -- preferentially over higher elevations as diurnal heating removes MLCINH. Activity then should move generally southward over deeper, straggly heated/mixed, yet favorably moist boundary layers to sustain convective potential, and also, to support isolated severe gusts from the most vigorous downdrafts. Forecast soundings show mixed/subcloud layers extending well above 700 mb, yet still beneath 300-800 J/kg MLCAPE. Although strong veering with height is expected over much of this area, very weak low/middle-level wind speeds and lack of appreciable vertical shear will limit convective organization and coverage of the severe threat overall. ...IA and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, with isolated severe hail and a few damaging to severe gusts possible. Activity should form in a weak-MLCINH airmass near the surface trough, destabilizing through the lower/middle troposphere via a combination of diurnal surface heating, low-level warm/theta-e advection, and DCVA-forced cooling aloft that precedes the shortwave trough. These factors, with surface dewpoints generally remaining in the upper 50s to mid 60s F through the boundary-layer heating/mixing cycle, should support a meso-alpha scale patch of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. With weak low/middle-level winds and shear, the main mode should be multicellular, with isolated pulse severe, before evening boundary-layer cooling reduces instability and convective coverage/intensity. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are possible over parts of western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern will continue to be characterized by mean troughing over the Great Lakes and ridging in the west. An anchoring anticyclone -- centered near LAS -- should remain quasistationary over the Great Basin, lower Colorado River Valley, Southeastern CA and much of AZ. In the Great Lakes regime, a leading/strong shortwave trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from Lake Michigan to the Mid-South, containing an intermittently closed 700-500-mb circulation on the north end, over Lake Michigan. Associated cyclonic flow includes the increasingly diffuse midlevel remains of Beryl, with a warm axis aloft still apparent in 700- 500-mb charts east/southeast of the shortwave perturbation's thermal trough. This complex feature is forecast to eject northeastward by 00Z to the neck of ON, Lake Huron, southeastern Lower MI, and the MIE area. Overnight, the trough should lose amplitude while reaching southwestern QC and the Lower Great Lakes. Upstream, a fairly prominent, compact, shortwave trough and PV anomaly were located over MN and eastern SD. This feature should pivot southeastward to IA by 00Z, then parts of northwestern IL and northeastern MO by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over northwestern OH, with cold front across eastern parts of KY/TN, to southern AL, becoming quasistationary near the LA coastline. A slow-moving warm front was drawn from the low across the western NY/PA line to near ALB, then over central New England. By 00Z, the cold front should extend from an occlusion triple point over (or just south of) Lake Ontario, across west-central NY, central parts of PA/VA/NC, to southern GA, becoming quasistationary and frontolytic over southern parts of AL/MS/LA. The warm front should move slowly northward over western, central and northern NY today, decelerating/stalling across the higher terrain from the Adirondacks eastward across VT/NH/western ME. The cold front also should decelerate as it shifts eastward over the Atlantic Seaboard, extending by 12Z from a triple point over northern parts of VT or NH across western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and near-coastal NC, to a deepening low offshore from MYR. A prefrontal trough should shift eastward today over parts of NY/PA, while a post-frontal trough (with some mass-response reinforcement by the northwest-flow shortwave trough) should move southward over parts of IA, NE and northern IL. ...Northeastern CONUS... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front , especially near the prefrontal trough (with that activity ultimately evolving upscale into a line. All severe hazards will be possible from relatively discrete convection (including potential for several supercells) from the early-stage, pre-linear regime, and perhaps even in the warm sector to its east. Tornado potential should be relatively maximized near the warm front, where backed near-surface winds will contribute to enlarged low-level hodographs and enhanced storm-relative flow in the boundary layer. The corridor of greatest tornado probabilities is narrow, and may need to be shifted around today as mesoscale trends suggest (especially with regard to warm-frontal position). However, at least marginally favorable low-level shear for embedded supercellular or QLCS mesovortex tornado potential is possible as far south as the western/upper Chesapeake Bay region. Ample low-level moisture is in place, and will continue over the area, with surface dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s along and south of the warm front. This will contribute to low LCL and, in concert with diurnal heating that satellite imagery suggests should be common, will yield peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range ahead of the main convective band. Activity should weaken in and near eastern parts of the "slight" to "marginal" probabilities this evening as it encounters a more-stable boundary layer. ...NM and west TX... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon -- preferentially over higher elevations as diurnal heating removes MLCINH. Activity then should move generally southward over deeper, straggly heated/mixed, yet favorably moist boundary layers to sustain convective potential, and also, to support isolated severe gusts from the most vigorous downdrafts. Forecast soundings show mixed/subcloud layers extending well above 700 mb, yet still beneath 300-800 J/kg MLCAPE. Although strong veering with height is expected over much of this area, very weak low/middle-level wind speeds and lack of appreciable vertical shear will limit convective organization and coverage of the severe threat overall. ...IA and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, with isolated severe hail and a few damaging to severe gusts possible. Activity should form in a weak-MLCINH airmass near the surface trough, destabilizing through the lower/middle troposphere via a combination of diurnal surface heating, low-level warm/theta-e advection, and DCVA-forced cooling aloft that precedes the shortwave trough. These factors, with surface dewpoints generally remaining in the upper 50s to mid 60s F through the boundary-layer heating/mixing cycle, should support a meso-alpha scale patch of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. With weak low/middle-level winds and shear, the main mode should be multicellular, with isolated pulse severe, before evening boundary-layer cooling reduces instability and convective coverage/intensity. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are possible over parts of western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern will continue to be characterized by mean troughing over the Great Lakes and ridging in the west. An anchoring anticyclone -- centered near LAS -- should remain quasistationary over the Great Basin, lower Colorado River Valley, Southeastern CA and much of AZ. In the Great Lakes regime, a leading/strong shortwave trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from Lake Michigan to the Mid-South, containing an intermittently closed 700-500-mb circulation on the north end, over Lake Michigan. Associated cyclonic flow includes the increasingly diffuse midlevel remains of Beryl, with a warm axis aloft still apparent in 700- 500-mb charts east/southeast of the shortwave perturbation's thermal trough. This complex feature is forecast to eject northeastward by 00Z to the neck of ON, Lake Huron, southeastern Lower MI, and the MIE area. Overnight, the trough should lose amplitude while reaching southwestern QC and the Lower Great Lakes. Upstream, a fairly prominent, compact, shortwave trough and PV anomaly were located over MN and eastern SD. This feature should pivot southeastward to IA by 00Z, then parts of northwestern IL and northeastern MO by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over northwestern OH, with cold front across eastern parts of KY/TN, to southern AL, becoming quasistationary near the LA coastline. A slow-moving warm front was drawn from the low across the western NY/PA line to near ALB, then over central New England. By 00Z, the cold front should extend from an occlusion triple point over (or just south of) Lake Ontario, across west-central NY, central parts of PA/VA/NC, to southern GA, becoming quasistationary and frontolytic over southern parts of AL/MS/LA. The warm front should move slowly northward over western, central and northern NY today, decelerating/stalling across the higher terrain from the Adirondacks eastward across VT/NH/western ME. The cold front also should decelerate as it shifts eastward over the Atlantic Seaboard, extending by 12Z from a triple point over northern parts of VT or NH across western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and near-coastal NC, to a deepening low offshore from MYR. A prefrontal trough should shift eastward today over parts of NY/PA, while a post-frontal trough (with some mass-response reinforcement by the northwest-flow shortwave trough) should move southward over parts of IA, NE and northern IL. ...Northeastern CONUS... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front , especially near the prefrontal trough (with that activity ultimately evolving upscale into a line. All severe hazards will be possible from relatively discrete convection (including potential for several supercells) from the early-stage, pre-linear regime, and perhaps even in the warm sector to its east. Tornado potential should be relatively maximized near the warm front, where backed near-surface winds will contribute to enlarged low-level hodographs and enhanced storm-relative flow in the boundary layer. The corridor of greatest tornado probabilities is narrow, and may need to be shifted around today as mesoscale trends suggest (especially with regard to warm-frontal position). However, at least marginally favorable low-level shear for embedded supercellular or QLCS mesovortex tornado potential is possible as far south as the western/upper Chesapeake Bay region. Ample low-level moisture is in place, and will continue over the area, with surface dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s along and south of the warm front. This will contribute to low LCL and, in concert with diurnal heating that satellite imagery suggests should be common, will yield peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range ahead of the main convective band. Activity should weaken in and near eastern parts of the "slight" to "marginal" probabilities this evening as it encounters a more-stable boundary layer. ...NM and west TX... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon -- preferentially over higher elevations as diurnal heating removes MLCINH. Activity then should move generally southward over deeper, straggly heated/mixed, yet favorably moist boundary layers to sustain convective potential, and also, to support isolated severe gusts from the most vigorous downdrafts. Forecast soundings show mixed/subcloud layers extending well above 700 mb, yet still beneath 300-800 J/kg MLCAPE. Although strong veering with height is expected over much of this area, very weak low/middle-level wind speeds and lack of appreciable vertical shear will limit convective organization and coverage of the severe threat overall. ...IA and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, with isolated severe hail and a few damaging to severe gusts possible. Activity should form in a weak-MLCINH airmass near the surface trough, destabilizing through the lower/middle troposphere via a combination of diurnal surface heating, low-level warm/theta-e advection, and DCVA-forced cooling aloft that precedes the shortwave trough. These factors, with surface dewpoints generally remaining in the upper 50s to mid 60s F through the boundary-layer heating/mixing cycle, should support a meso-alpha scale patch of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. With weak low/middle-level winds and shear, the main mode should be multicellular, with isolated pulse severe, before evening boundary-layer cooling reduces instability and convective coverage/intensity. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are possible over parts of western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern will continue to be characterized by mean troughing over the Great Lakes and ridging in the west. An anchoring anticyclone -- centered near LAS -- should remain quasistationary over the Great Basin, lower Colorado River Valley, Southeastern CA and much of AZ. In the Great Lakes regime, a leading/strong shortwave trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from Lake Michigan to the Mid-South, containing an intermittently closed 700-500-mb circulation on the north end, over Lake Michigan. Associated cyclonic flow includes the increasingly diffuse midlevel remains of Beryl, with a warm axis aloft still apparent in 700- 500-mb charts east/southeast of the shortwave perturbation's thermal trough. This complex feature is forecast to eject northeastward by 00Z to the neck of ON, Lake Huron, southeastern Lower MI, and the MIE area. Overnight, the trough should lose amplitude while reaching southwestern QC and the Lower Great Lakes. Upstream, a fairly prominent, compact, shortwave trough and PV anomaly were located over MN and eastern SD. This feature should pivot southeastward to IA by 00Z, then parts of northwestern IL and northeastern MO by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over northwestern OH, with cold front across eastern parts of KY/TN, to southern AL, becoming quasistationary near the LA coastline. A slow-moving warm front was drawn from the low across the western NY/PA line to near ALB, then over central New England. By 00Z, the cold front should extend from an occlusion triple point over (or just south of) Lake Ontario, across west-central NY, central parts of PA/VA/NC, to southern GA, becoming quasistationary and frontolytic over southern parts of AL/MS/LA. The warm front should move slowly northward over western, central and northern NY today, decelerating/stalling across the higher terrain from the Adirondacks eastward across VT/NH/western ME. The cold front also should decelerate as it shifts eastward over the Atlantic Seaboard, extending by 12Z from a triple point over northern parts of VT or NH across western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and near-coastal NC, to a deepening low offshore from MYR. A prefrontal trough should shift eastward today over parts of NY/PA, while a post-frontal trough (with some mass-response reinforcement by the northwest-flow shortwave trough) should move southward over parts of IA, NE and northern IL. ...Northeastern CONUS... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front , especially near the prefrontal trough (with that activity ultimately evolving upscale into a line. All severe hazards will be possible from relatively discrete convection (including potential for several supercells) from the early-stage, pre-linear regime, and perhaps even in the warm sector to its east. Tornado potential should be relatively maximized near the warm front, where backed near-surface winds will contribute to enlarged low-level hodographs and enhanced storm-relative flow in the boundary layer. The corridor of greatest tornado probabilities is narrow, and may need to be shifted around today as mesoscale trends suggest (especially with regard to warm-frontal position). However, at least marginally favorable low-level shear for embedded supercellular or QLCS mesovortex tornado potential is possible as far south as the western/upper Chesapeake Bay region. Ample low-level moisture is in place, and will continue over the area, with surface dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s along and south of the warm front. This will contribute to low LCL and, in concert with diurnal heating that satellite imagery suggests should be common, will yield peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range ahead of the main convective band. Activity should weaken in and near eastern parts of the "slight" to "marginal" probabilities this evening as it encounters a more-stable boundary layer. ...NM and west TX... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon -- preferentially over higher elevations as diurnal heating removes MLCINH. Activity then should move generally southward over deeper, straggly heated/mixed, yet favorably moist boundary layers to sustain convective potential, and also, to support isolated severe gusts from the most vigorous downdrafts. Forecast soundings show mixed/subcloud layers extending well above 700 mb, yet still beneath 300-800 J/kg MLCAPE. Although strong veering with height is expected over much of this area, very weak low/middle-level wind speeds and lack of appreciable vertical shear will limit convective organization and coverage of the severe threat overall. ...IA and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, with isolated severe hail and a few damaging to severe gusts possible. Activity should form in a weak-MLCINH airmass near the surface trough, destabilizing through the lower/middle troposphere via a combination of diurnal surface heating, low-level warm/theta-e advection, and DCVA-forced cooling aloft that precedes the shortwave trough. These factors, with surface dewpoints generally remaining in the upper 50s to mid 60s F through the boundary-layer heating/mixing cycle, should support a meso-alpha scale patch of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. With weak low/middle-level winds and shear, the main mode should be multicellular, with isolated pulse severe, before evening boundary-layer cooling reduces instability and convective coverage/intensity. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 07/10/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101128
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Papin

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will gradually shunt eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley areas this weekend into the middle of next week. Multiple pronounced mid-level shortwave troughs and associated 500 mb speed maxima will pivot around the upper ridge and traverse the Upper MS Valley into the Northeast this weekend through early to mid next week. With adequate low-level moisture and overall instability preceding the mid-level troughs, severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper MS Valley to the Northeast at least this weekend, possibly into early next week. ...Days 4-5 (Saturday-Sunday) - Upper MS Valley... A 500 mb speed max will traverse the U.S./Canada border on Day 4 (Saturday) as surface lee troughing advects dewpoints well into the 70s F across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley. An EML will also precede the mid-level speed max and overspread the rich low-level moisture, contributing to 4000+ J/kg MUCAPE per latest medium-range guidance consensus. Forcing for ascent will be modest and capping will be present, though the approach of the speed max may support convective initiation across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the moment, too much disagreement exists between medium-range guidance members regarding the placement of convection to support the addition of severe probabilities for Saturday. Despite some timing issues, medium-range guidance is in better agreement in depicting a mid-level impulse and accompanying wave of deep-moist convection traversing the Upper MS Valley area on Day 5 (Sunday). There is some concern that preceding convection from Day 4 could promote stability over portions of the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes. Nonetheless, both the ECMWF and GFS agree that the EML will continue regenerate from the southwest, focusing strong to potentially extreme instability into portions of this region. At the moment, it appears the best chance for severe convection (including the possibility of an organized, sustained MCS) would be over central MN into WI Sunday afternoon or evening, warranting the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities. However, these probabilities may need to be considerably adjusted based on timing/placement changes of key mesoscale features, or to account for any impacts from preceding convection in later outlooks. ...Days 6-8 (Monday-Wednesday) - Northern Plains to the Northeast... The first mid-level impulse will eject into the Northeast on Day 6 (Monday). Some instability will precede this impulse, and medium-range guidance suggests that convective precipitation is possible. However, given limited deep-layer shear and ascent, confidence is too low to provide severe probabilities. Meanwhile, medium-range guidance consensus hints at convective development over parts of the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Monday as a second mid-level impulse impinges on the region. Though guidance consensus shows adequate overlapping shear and instability to support severe storms, relatively weak forcing for ascent and convective signals in the guidance preclude severe probabilities. By Days 7-8 (Tuesday-Wednesday), the second approaching mid-level trough will amplify while overspreading the Great Lakes, supporting a southward-surging cold front from the MS Valley into the northeast. Forcing for ascent and accompanying buoyancy suggests severe thunderstorms are possible from the MS Valley to New England. However, details on frontal timing and placement this far in advance are too nebulous for severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will gradually shunt eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley areas this weekend into the middle of next week. Multiple pronounced mid-level shortwave troughs and associated 500 mb speed maxima will pivot around the upper ridge and traverse the Upper MS Valley into the Northeast this weekend through early to mid next week. With adequate low-level moisture and overall instability preceding the mid-level troughs, severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper MS Valley to the Northeast at least this weekend, possibly into early next week. ...Days 4-5 (Saturday-Sunday) - Upper MS Valley... A 500 mb speed max will traverse the U.S./Canada border on Day 4 (Saturday) as surface lee troughing advects dewpoints well into the 70s F across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley. An EML will also precede the mid-level speed max and overspread the rich low-level moisture, contributing to 4000+ J/kg MUCAPE per latest medium-range guidance consensus. Forcing for ascent will be modest and capping will be present, though the approach of the speed max may support convective initiation across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the moment, too much disagreement exists between medium-range guidance members regarding the placement of convection to support the addition of severe probabilities for Saturday. Despite some timing issues, medium-range guidance is in better agreement in depicting a mid-level impulse and accompanying wave of deep-moist convection traversing the Upper MS Valley area on Day 5 (Sunday). There is some concern that preceding convection from Day 4 could promote stability over portions of the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes. Nonetheless, both the ECMWF and GFS agree that the EML will continue regenerate from the southwest, focusing strong to potentially extreme instability into portions of this region. At the moment, it appears the best chance for severe convection (including the possibility of an organized, sustained MCS) would be over central MN into WI Sunday afternoon or evening, warranting the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities. However, these probabilities may need to be considerably adjusted based on timing/placement changes of key mesoscale features, or to account for any impacts from preceding convection in later outlooks. ...Days 6-8 (Monday-Wednesday) - Northern Plains to the Northeast... The first mid-level impulse will eject into the Northeast on Day 6 (Monday). Some instability will precede this impulse, and medium-range guidance suggests that convective precipitation is possible. However, given limited deep-layer shear and ascent, confidence is too low to provide severe probabilities. Meanwhile, medium-range guidance consensus hints at convective development over parts of the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Monday as a second mid-level impulse impinges on the region. Though guidance consensus shows adequate overlapping shear and instability to support severe storms, relatively weak forcing for ascent and convective signals in the guidance preclude severe probabilities. By Days 7-8 (Tuesday-Wednesday), the second approaching mid-level trough will amplify while overspreading the Great Lakes, supporting a southward-surging cold front from the MS Valley into the northeast. Forcing for ascent and accompanying buoyancy suggests severe thunderstorms are possible from the MS Valley to New England. However, details on frontal timing and placement this far in advance are too nebulous for severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will gradually shunt eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley areas this weekend into the middle of next week. Multiple pronounced mid-level shortwave troughs and associated 500 mb speed maxima will pivot around the upper ridge and traverse the Upper MS Valley into the Northeast this weekend through early to mid next week. With adequate low-level moisture and overall instability preceding the mid-level troughs, severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper MS Valley to the Northeast at least this weekend, possibly into early next week. ...Days 4-5 (Saturday-Sunday) - Upper MS Valley... A 500 mb speed max will traverse the U.S./Canada border on Day 4 (Saturday) as surface lee troughing advects dewpoints well into the 70s F across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley. An EML will also precede the mid-level speed max and overspread the rich low-level moisture, contributing to 4000+ J/kg MUCAPE per latest medium-range guidance consensus. Forcing for ascent will be modest and capping will be present, though the approach of the speed max may support convective initiation across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the moment, too much disagreement exists between medium-range guidance members regarding the placement of convection to support the addition of severe probabilities for Saturday. Despite some timing issues, medium-range guidance is in better agreement in depicting a mid-level impulse and accompanying wave of deep-moist convection traversing the Upper MS Valley area on Day 5 (Sunday). There is some concern that preceding convection from Day 4 could promote stability over portions of the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes. Nonetheless, both the ECMWF and GFS agree that the EML will continue regenerate from the southwest, focusing strong to potentially extreme instability into portions of this region. At the moment, it appears the best chance for severe convection (including the possibility of an organized, sustained MCS) would be over central MN into WI Sunday afternoon or evening, warranting the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities. However, these probabilities may need to be considerably adjusted based on timing/placement changes of key mesoscale features, or to account for any impacts from preceding convection in later outlooks. ...Days 6-8 (Monday-Wednesday) - Northern Plains to the Northeast... The first mid-level impulse will eject into the Northeast on Day 6 (Monday). Some instability will precede this impulse, and medium-range guidance suggests that convective precipitation is possible. However, given limited deep-layer shear and ascent, confidence is too low to provide severe probabilities. Meanwhile, medium-range guidance consensus hints at convective development over parts of the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Monday as a second mid-level impulse impinges on the region. Though guidance consensus shows adequate overlapping shear and instability to support severe storms, relatively weak forcing for ascent and convective signals in the guidance preclude severe probabilities. By Days 7-8 (Tuesday-Wednesday), the second approaching mid-level trough will amplify while overspreading the Great Lakes, supporting a southward-surging cold front from the MS Valley into the northeast. Forcing for ascent and accompanying buoyancy suggests severe thunderstorms are possible from the MS Valley to New England. However, details on frontal timing and placement this far in advance are too nebulous for severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will gradually shunt eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley areas this weekend into the middle of next week. Multiple pronounced mid-level shortwave troughs and associated 500 mb speed maxima will pivot around the upper ridge and traverse the Upper MS Valley into the Northeast this weekend through early to mid next week. With adequate low-level moisture and overall instability preceding the mid-level troughs, severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper MS Valley to the Northeast at least this weekend, possibly into early next week. ...Days 4-5 (Saturday-Sunday) - Upper MS Valley... A 500 mb speed max will traverse the U.S./Canada border on Day 4 (Saturday) as surface lee troughing advects dewpoints well into the 70s F across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley. An EML will also precede the mid-level speed max and overspread the rich low-level moisture, contributing to 4000+ J/kg MUCAPE per latest medium-range guidance consensus. Forcing for ascent will be modest and capping will be present, though the approach of the speed max may support convective initiation across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the moment, too much disagreement exists between medium-range guidance members regarding the placement of convection to support the addition of severe probabilities for Saturday. Despite some timing issues, medium-range guidance is in better agreement in depicting a mid-level impulse and accompanying wave of deep-moist convection traversing the Upper MS Valley area on Day 5 (Sunday). There is some concern that preceding convection from Day 4 could promote stability over portions of the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes. Nonetheless, both the ECMWF and GFS agree that the EML will continue regenerate from the southwest, focusing strong to potentially extreme instability into portions of this region. At the moment, it appears the best chance for severe convection (including the possibility of an organized, sustained MCS) would be over central MN into WI Sunday afternoon or evening, warranting the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities. However, these probabilities may need to be considerably adjusted based on timing/placement changes of key mesoscale features, or to account for any impacts from preceding convection in later outlooks. ...Days 6-8 (Monday-Wednesday) - Northern Plains to the Northeast... The first mid-level impulse will eject into the Northeast on Day 6 (Monday). Some instability will precede this impulse, and medium-range guidance suggests that convective precipitation is possible. However, given limited deep-layer shear and ascent, confidence is too low to provide severe probabilities. Meanwhile, medium-range guidance consensus hints at convective development over parts of the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Monday as a second mid-level impulse impinges on the region. Though guidance consensus shows adequate overlapping shear and instability to support severe storms, relatively weak forcing for ascent and convective signals in the guidance preclude severe probabilities. By Days 7-8 (Tuesday-Wednesday), the second approaching mid-level trough will amplify while overspreading the Great Lakes, supporting a southward-surging cold front from the MS Valley into the northeast. Forcing for ascent and accompanying buoyancy suggests severe thunderstorms are possible from the MS Valley to New England. However, details on frontal timing and placement this far in advance are too nebulous for severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will gradually shunt eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley areas this weekend into the middle of next week. Multiple pronounced mid-level shortwave troughs and associated 500 mb speed maxima will pivot around the upper ridge and traverse the Upper MS Valley into the Northeast this weekend through early to mid next week. With adequate low-level moisture and overall instability preceding the mid-level troughs, severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper MS Valley to the Northeast at least this weekend, possibly into early next week. ...Days 4-5 (Saturday-Sunday) - Upper MS Valley... A 500 mb speed max will traverse the U.S./Canada border on Day 4 (Saturday) as surface lee troughing advects dewpoints well into the 70s F across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley. An EML will also precede the mid-level speed max and overspread the rich low-level moisture, contributing to 4000+ J/kg MUCAPE per latest medium-range guidance consensus. Forcing for ascent will be modest and capping will be present, though the approach of the speed max may support convective initiation across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the moment, too much disagreement exists between medium-range guidance members regarding the placement of convection to support the addition of severe probabilities for Saturday. Despite some timing issues, medium-range guidance is in better agreement in depicting a mid-level impulse and accompanying wave of deep-moist convection traversing the Upper MS Valley area on Day 5 (Sunday). There is some concern that preceding convection from Day 4 could promote stability over portions of the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes. Nonetheless, both the ECMWF and GFS agree that the EML will continue regenerate from the southwest, focusing strong to potentially extreme instability into portions of this region. At the moment, it appears the best chance for severe convection (including the possibility of an organized, sustained MCS) would be over central MN into WI Sunday afternoon or evening, warranting the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities. However, these probabilities may need to be considerably adjusted based on timing/placement changes of key mesoscale features, or to account for any impacts from preceding convection in later outlooks. ...Days 6-8 (Monday-Wednesday) - Northern Plains to the Northeast... The first mid-level impulse will eject into the Northeast on Day 6 (Monday). Some instability will precede this impulse, and medium-range guidance suggests that convective precipitation is possible. However, given limited deep-layer shear and ascent, confidence is too low to provide severe probabilities. Meanwhile, medium-range guidance consensus hints at convective development over parts of the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Monday as a second mid-level impulse impinges on the region. Though guidance consensus shows adequate overlapping shear and instability to support severe storms, relatively weak forcing for ascent and convective signals in the guidance preclude severe probabilities. By Days 7-8 (Tuesday-Wednesday), the second approaching mid-level trough will amplify while overspreading the Great Lakes, supporting a southward-surging cold front from the MS Valley into the northeast. Forcing for ascent and accompanying buoyancy suggests severe thunderstorms are possible from the MS Valley to New England. However, details on frontal timing and placement this far in advance are too nebulous for severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Crops in West Virginia were struggling for lack of rain. Farmers with irrigation capability were better off than those without it. WVNS-TV Channel 59 Bluefield (W.V.), July 9, 2024

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe potential currently appears too low to highlight with severe probabilities this outlook. ...Synopsis... A pair of low-amplitude mid-level troughs will traverse the Northeast and Upper MS Valley as an upper-level anticyclone continues to build over the Interior West, into the Plains on Day 3 (Friday). Surface lee troughing ahead of the MS Valley mid-level trough will support a broad fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath an eastward-advecting EML plume. At least mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support strong buoyancy (i.e. 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) across much of the Upper MS Valley by afternoon peak heating. Given the overall low-amplitude nature of the mid-level trough overspreading the region, deep-layer shear and ascent for organized convection are not overly strong (hence no severe probabilities introduced this outlook). Nonetheless, the degree of instability suggests that any storms that can form in this environment could at least be pulse-severe in nature. The 00Z ECMWF also appears to show a southward-surging MCS across the international border into the Upper MS Valley sometime after sunset. If guidance consensus shows a more organized convective scenario over the Upper MS Valley, severe probabilities may need to be introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe potential currently appears too low to highlight with severe probabilities this outlook. ...Synopsis... A pair of low-amplitude mid-level troughs will traverse the Northeast and Upper MS Valley as an upper-level anticyclone continues to build over the Interior West, into the Plains on Day 3 (Friday). Surface lee troughing ahead of the MS Valley mid-level trough will support a broad fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath an eastward-advecting EML plume. At least mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support strong buoyancy (i.e. 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) across much of the Upper MS Valley by afternoon peak heating. Given the overall low-amplitude nature of the mid-level trough overspreading the region, deep-layer shear and ascent for organized convection are not overly strong (hence no severe probabilities introduced this outlook). Nonetheless, the degree of instability suggests that any storms that can form in this environment could at least be pulse-severe in nature. The 00Z ECMWF also appears to show a southward-surging MCS across the international border into the Upper MS Valley sometime after sunset. If guidance consensus shows a more organized convective scenario over the Upper MS Valley, severe probabilities may need to be introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2024 Read more