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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread a hot/dry boundary layer over the Great Basin -- along the eastern periphery of a persistent large-scale ridge over CA. This will promote widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the eastern Great Basin. A focused area of critical conditions is evident over portions of southern/eastern UT, where strong northwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit RH. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this area (where fuels are most receptive). Moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the Cascade Gaps, though critical conditions are not expected at this time. Farther south under the ridge, locally elevated conditions are expected across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast, where continued hot/dry and locally breezy conditions are forecast. ...Days 4-8/Monday-Friday... The large-scale ridge will shift slowly southward/eastward, as low-amplitude troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will favor periods of breezy conditions across northern CA into the Northwest, where a hot/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. Additionally, isolated thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, fire-weather concerns will gradually increase, though the details are unclear at this time -- precluding Critical probabilities. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1541 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Areas affected...North-Central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052031Z - 052200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts/hail possible with the strongest cells, watch issuance is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite trends show a few clusters of storms that have emerged this afternoon. These storms have developed within an environment characterized by weak instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) that increases with eastern extent, and relatively weak shear that increases to near 40 kts of effective bulk shear with western extent. In the near term, this activity is anticipated to persist and drift eastward into portions of east-central Montana. Some intensification may occur with time, but convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain amid the aforementioned weak cape/shear environment. Nevertheless, strong to severe winds/hail is possible with the strongest cells. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, however, watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. ..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 46860744 47220897 47551050 47631167 48271175 48761006 48980796 48780655 48110652 47310667 46860744 Read more

Mandatory water use restrictions were in effect for people in Walhalla where excessive water use was causing problems with water pressure. WYFF-TV NBC 4 (Greenville, S.C.), July 5, 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 20:33:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 21:29:01 GMT

MD 1540 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1540 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051928Z - 052130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage expected to increase this afternoon, a few of which may produce severe hail/wind gusts, though watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show a decrease in cloud cover throughout the late morning/early afternoon across most of eastern New Mexico, while strong heating has been occurring along/near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Surface observations show easterly upslope flow into region, with dew point temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s. This combination is yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, with isolated storms beginning to develop in proximity to the Sangre de Cristo range. Storm coverage should continue to increase, particularly in northeast New Mexico, as continued heating/destabilization occurs, with multicells emerging as the predominant mode. Deep-layer shear is notably weak across the state, approaching 30-35 kt with northern extent. Therefore, a few storms may organize into supercell structures, at least briefly, with the potential for severe hail/wind gusts. With time, storm coverage should expand southward, though coverage of the severe threat is anticipated to remain low. Given these expectations, watch issuance is unlikely for the region at this time. ..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 35240553 36100539 36780516 36950467 36990390 36680333 36160311 35090298 34300303 33660312 33400333 33330376 33340436 33660492 34250527 35240553 Read more

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 052032 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 Aletta is no longer producing organized deep convection. If this current convective trend continues, Aletta will become a remnant low later this evening. ASCAT-B data at 1712 UTC showed Aletta still has a well-defined center, but indicated its maximum winds have decreased to 25 kt. The depression's initial motion estimate is 260/10 kt. Aletta should generally remain on this heading with a similar forward speed for the next day or so until it dissipates. Environmental conditions around Aletta do not appear to be conducive for the redevelopment of organized deep convection and all models indicate that the cyclone will continue to weaken from this point. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.6N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 18.3N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 18.3N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 052031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Aletta Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 ...ALETTA WEAKENS FURTHER... ...WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 110.8W ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Aletta was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 110.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so until Aletta dissipates. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue, and Aletta will likely dissipate in about a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...ALETTA WEAKENS FURTHER... ...WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Jul 5 the center of Aletta was located near 18.6, -110.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 052030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.8W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.8W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.3N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more