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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous discussion below for more details. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across northeast NM, reference MCD 1540. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous discussion below for more details. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across northeast NM, reference MCD 1540. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous discussion below for more details. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across northeast NM, reference MCD 1540. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous discussion below for more details. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across northeast NM, reference MCD 1540. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous discussion below for more details. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across northeast NM, reference MCD 1540. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous discussion below for more details. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across northeast NM, reference MCD 1540. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous discussion below for more details. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across northeast NM, reference MCD 1540. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous discussion below for more details. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across northeast NM, reference MCD 1540. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous discussion below for more details. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across northeast NM, reference MCD 1540. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous discussion below for more details. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across northeast NM, reference MCD 1540. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous discussion below for more details. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across northeast NM, reference MCD 1540. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JIRAK..07/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS VAC167-173-185-191-520-052040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RUSSELL SMYTH TAZEWELL WASHINGTON VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL WVC005-007-013-015-019-021-025-039-045-047-055-067-081-087-089- 109-052040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRAXTON CALHOUN CLAY FAYETTE GILMER GREENBRIER KANAWHA LOGAN MCDOWELL MERCER NICHOLAS RALEIGH ROANE SUMMERS WYOMING Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JIRAK..07/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS VAC167-173-185-191-520-052040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RUSSELL SMYTH TAZEWELL WASHINGTON VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL WVC005-007-013-015-019-021-025-039-045-047-055-067-081-087-089- 109-052040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRAXTON CALHOUN CLAY FAYETTE GILMER GREENBRIER KANAWHA LOGAN MCDOWELL MERCER NICHOLAS RALEIGH ROANE SUMMERS WYOMING Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JIRAK..07/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS VAC167-173-185-191-520-052040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RUSSELL SMYTH TAZEWELL WASHINGTON VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL WVC005-007-013-015-019-021-025-039-045-047-055-067-081-087-089- 109-052040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRAXTON CALHOUN CLAY FAYETTE GILMER GREENBRIER KANAWHA LOGAN MCDOWELL MERCER NICHOLAS RALEIGH ROANE SUMMERS WYOMING Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JIRAK..07/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS VAC167-173-185-191-520-052040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RUSSELL SMYTH TAZEWELL WASHINGTON VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL WVC005-007-013-015-019-021-025-039-045-047-055-067-081-087-089- 109-052040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRAXTON CALHOUN CLAY FAYETTE GILMER GREENBRIER KANAWHA LOGAN MCDOWELL MERCER NICHOLAS RALEIGH ROANE SUMMERS WYOMING Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JIRAK..07/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS VAC167-173-185-191-520-052040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RUSSELL SMYTH TAZEWELL WASHINGTON VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL WVC005-007-013-015-019-021-025-039-045-047-055-067-081-087-089- 109-052040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRAXTON CALHOUN CLAY FAYETTE GILMER GREENBRIER KANAWHA LOGAN MCDOWELL MERCER NICHOLAS RALEIGH ROANE SUMMERS WYOMING Read more