Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0520 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0520 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0520 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 520 TORNADO ME NH 102155Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Maine Northern and Central New Hampshire * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 555 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread eastward from Vermont through this evening. The strongest activity should pose some threat for a couple of tornadoes, along with strong to locally damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Mount Washington NH to 30 miles east of Mount Washington NH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518...WW 519... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1572 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Nebraska...southwestern Iowa...northwestern Missouri...northeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101912Z - 102145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development may be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, and perhaps increasing potential for strong to locally severe gusts, while spreading southward through 5-6 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has recently begun to intensify across south central Iowa, likely in response to increasing inflow of a destabilizing boundary-layer air mass characterized by mixed-layer CAPE up to around 2000 J/kg. This is occurring near the leading edge of a digging mid-level cold pool, which is forecast to continue spreading southward into the lower Missouri Valley through 22-23Z. This is embedded within relatively modest (20-25 kt) deep-layer west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow, but shear along the southwestern flank of the associated weak surface cold pool may become increasingly conducive to the evolution of at least short-lived supercell structures. New thunderstorm development is underway along this boundary, in the wake of the lead forward propagating cluster, and further intensification of this activity seems probable during the next few hours. In the presence of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, stronger cells may pose a risk for severe hail, and the risk for locally strong to severe surface gusts may also become more prominent by early evening. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 41439707 41439647 41429570 40909372 39719284 39669500 39949625 41199752 41439707 Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 519 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...TOP...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-007-039-051-053-071-129-137-145-159-173-175-177-185- 102240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAYNE KSC013-043-131-102240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN DONIPHAN NEMAHA MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-045-049-061-063-075-079-081-087- 103-111-115-117-121-127-129-137-147-171-175-177-197-199-205-211- 227-102240- MO Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 519 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...TOP...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-007-039-051-053-071-129-137-145-159-173-175-177-185- 102240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAYNE KSC013-043-131-102240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN DONIPHAN NEMAHA MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-045-049-061-063-075-079-081-087- 103-111-115-117-121-127-129-137-147-171-175-177-197-199-205-211- 227-102240- MO Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LYH TO 10 W CHO TO 20 W HGR TO 30 NNW UNV. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-102240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-102240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY PAC001-041-055-071-075-133-102240- Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LYH TO 10 W CHO TO 20 W HGR TO 30 NNW UNV. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-102240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-102240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY PAC001-041-055-071-075-133-102240- Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LYH TO 10 W CHO TO 20 W HGR TO 30 NNW UNV. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-102240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-102240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY PAC001-041-055-071-075-133-102240- Read more

WW 518 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 101740Z - 110200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Southern Pennsylvania Virginia Far Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered storms will continue to develop and intensify across the region, with the most sustained storms potentially focused across southern Pennsylvania, interior Maryland, into northern/central Virginia. Damaging winds will be the most common severe concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Hagerstown MD to 40 miles east southeast of Lynchburg VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE AOO TO 40 S ROC TO 35 W ART. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC001-007-011-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-041-043-045-049- 053-057-065-067-075-077-083-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109- 113-115-123-102240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CLINTON CORTLAND DELAWARE ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON LEWIS MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WARREN WASHINGTON YATES PAC015-027-035-037-043-061-067-069-079-081-087-093-097-099-107- 109-113-115-117-119-127-131-102240- PA Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE AOO TO 40 S ROC TO 35 W ART. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC001-007-011-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-041-043-045-049- 053-057-065-067-075-077-083-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109- 113-115-123-102240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CLINTON CORTLAND DELAWARE ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON LEWIS MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WARREN WASHINGTON YATES PAC015-027-035-037-043-061-067-069-079-081-087-093-097-099-107- 109-113-115-117-119-127-131-102240- PA Read more

Drought has dropped the level of the Ipswich River. To conserve water, Danvers on July 6 went to Level 5 water restrictions, which allow outdoor lawn and garden watering only with hand-held hoses or watering cans during certain hours. Non-essential outdoor water use will be prohibited in Topsfield starting July 12. Hamilton water users were urged to avoid outdoor watering during certain hours. In the past, high heat has led to high water demand, which exceeded treatment capacity. The lack of rain and reduced streamflow in the Ipswich River led the Ipswich water department to consider the town to be in a mild drought status. Water conservation was urged. The Salem News (Mass.), July 10, 2024

Residents of Victoria were urged to conserve water because the Guadalupe River was lower than normal for this time of year due to low rainfall upstream. Victoria must limit its pumping from the river to no more than 10% of the river flow when the river level is below normal. Victoria implemented stage one of its drought contingency plan to lessen the need for pumping and to rely less on backup reservoirs. Victoria Advocate (Texas), July 10, 2024

MD 1571 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 517... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1571 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...North-central Pennsylvania into central New York Concerning...Tornado Watch 517... Valid 101839Z - 102045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues. SUMMARY...Several discrete supercells in parts of central New York will continue to pose a tornado risk over the next 1-3 hours. DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are ongoing along a north-south line just east of Rochester, NY. Low-level rotation has occasionally increases with some of these storms. Overall, storms have not been overly intense, however, as only storms near Lake Ontario have shown higher reflectivity to above 9 km (per MRMS). This may be due in part to somewhat modest mid-level ascent and weaker mid-level lapse rates. Mid-level ascent should at least gradually increase through the day. Further, these storms will encounter increasing unstable inflow air to the east where temperatures have risen into the low 90s F. Some outflow from convection farther east is noted on visible satellite that may eventually impact some of this activity. Farther south into central Pennsylvania, convection has shown some increase in supercell character over the last hour. These storms will also pose a risk for tornadoes, though low-level shear is marginally weaker with southern extent. ..Wendt.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 42207547 41787597 41357710 41087807 41287826 41617806 43017773 43357705 43437608 43207550 42777531 42207547 Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW LYH TO 5 S SHD TO 30 SW MRB TO 5 SE AOO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573 ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-102140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-102140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more