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WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW AOO TO 30 NNW UNV TO 25 SSE BUF TO 40 NNW BUF. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC001-003-007-011-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-037-041-043- 045-049-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-083-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-107-109-113-115-117-121-123-102140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY ALLEGANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CLINTON CORTLAND DELAWARE ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON GENESEE HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WYOMING YATES PAC013-015-027-035-037-043-061-067-069-079-081-087-093-097-099- Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0519 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0519 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No further forecast updates were needed, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An approaching West Coast trough will increase westerly gradients across portions of Idaho on Thursday. Across the Snake River Valley, relative-humidity reductions around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Critical winds look to remain too localized for Critical highlights at this time. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained to cover this threat. Precipitable water will increase across southern/central Arizona on Thursday with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Along the edge of this moisture, across central/northern Arizona, a few high-based dry thunderstorms will be possible, with new ignitions from lighting starts. Slow storm motions should help keep this threat too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more