Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ..Lyons.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ..Lyons.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ..Lyons.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ..Lyons.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A weak mid/upper flow regime is forecast across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Upper troughing will envelop most of the central and eastern portions of the country while an amplified upper ridge persists across the western states. A convectively enhanced shortwave impulse/vorticity maxima related to convection in the Day 1/Friday time period may be located over the central Plains/Mid-MO Valley Saturday morning. Surface outflow tied to this activity could be located over southern portions of the central Plains or northern parts of the southern Plains, but confidence in this scenario is low. Further east, surface high pressure will be in place over the Midwest, with a stalled boundary on the southern periphery of the surface high extending from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place across parts of the central/southern Plains into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and areas of scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible. Overall, vertical shear will remain weak and thunderstorm activity largely disorganized. Some modestly enhanced vertical shear is possible over the central Appalachians/North Carolina vicinity. This may overlap with surface dewpoints in the 70s and strong heating, resulting in a corridor of moderate destabilization. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt could support semi-organized multicell clusters capable of producing locally damaging gusts. Additional strong storm may develop over parts of KS into western OK and the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles during the late afternoon/early evening. Severe potential may become more probable if aforementioned outflow boundaries exist over the region, providing some focus for stronger convection. However, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A weak mid/upper flow regime is forecast across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Upper troughing will envelop most of the central and eastern portions of the country while an amplified upper ridge persists across the western states. A convectively enhanced shortwave impulse/vorticity maxima related to convection in the Day 1/Friday time period may be located over the central Plains/Mid-MO Valley Saturday morning. Surface outflow tied to this activity could be located over southern portions of the central Plains or northern parts of the southern Plains, but confidence in this scenario is low. Further east, surface high pressure will be in place over the Midwest, with a stalled boundary on the southern periphery of the surface high extending from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place across parts of the central/southern Plains into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and areas of scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible. Overall, vertical shear will remain weak and thunderstorm activity largely disorganized. Some modestly enhanced vertical shear is possible over the central Appalachians/North Carolina vicinity. This may overlap with surface dewpoints in the 70s and strong heating, resulting in a corridor of moderate destabilization. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt could support semi-organized multicell clusters capable of producing locally damaging gusts. Additional strong storm may develop over parts of KS into western OK and the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles during the late afternoon/early evening. Severe potential may become more probable if aforementioned outflow boundaries exist over the region, providing some focus for stronger convection. However, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A weak mid/upper flow regime is forecast across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Upper troughing will envelop most of the central and eastern portions of the country while an amplified upper ridge persists across the western states. A convectively enhanced shortwave impulse/vorticity maxima related to convection in the Day 1/Friday time period may be located over the central Plains/Mid-MO Valley Saturday morning. Surface outflow tied to this activity could be located over southern portions of the central Plains or northern parts of the southern Plains, but confidence in this scenario is low. Further east, surface high pressure will be in place over the Midwest, with a stalled boundary on the southern periphery of the surface high extending from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place across parts of the central/southern Plains into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and areas of scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible. Overall, vertical shear will remain weak and thunderstorm activity largely disorganized. Some modestly enhanced vertical shear is possible over the central Appalachians/North Carolina vicinity. This may overlap with surface dewpoints in the 70s and strong heating, resulting in a corridor of moderate destabilization. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt could support semi-organized multicell clusters capable of producing locally damaging gusts. Additional strong storm may develop over parts of KS into western OK and the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles during the late afternoon/early evening. Severe potential may become more probable if aforementioned outflow boundaries exist over the region, providing some focus for stronger convection. However, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A weak mid/upper flow regime is forecast across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Upper troughing will envelop most of the central and eastern portions of the country while an amplified upper ridge persists across the western states. A convectively enhanced shortwave impulse/vorticity maxima related to convection in the Day 1/Friday time period may be located over the central Plains/Mid-MO Valley Saturday morning. Surface outflow tied to this activity could be located over southern portions of the central Plains or northern parts of the southern Plains, but confidence in this scenario is low. Further east, surface high pressure will be in place over the Midwest, with a stalled boundary on the southern periphery of the surface high extending from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place across parts of the central/southern Plains into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and areas of scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible. Overall, vertical shear will remain weak and thunderstorm activity largely disorganized. Some modestly enhanced vertical shear is possible over the central Appalachians/North Carolina vicinity. This may overlap with surface dewpoints in the 70s and strong heating, resulting in a corridor of moderate destabilization. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt could support semi-organized multicell clusters capable of producing locally damaging gusts. Additional strong storm may develop over parts of KS into western OK and the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles during the late afternoon/early evening. Severe potential may become more probable if aforementioned outflow boundaries exist over the region, providing some focus for stronger convection. However, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a risk for damaging winds and large hail, will be possible Friday from western and central South Dakota south into the northern Texas Panhandle. ...Synopsis... A notable shortwave trough located along the international border/north-central MT at 06z will move southeast across the northern/central Plains on Friday. An expansive upper-level anticyclone will remain in place over much of the southwestern U.S., while a positive-tilt upper trough over the Northeast lifts northward into the Canadian Maritime Provinces. ...Central U.S.... One or two small clusters of thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12z Friday in a weak warm-advection regime over the Dakotas. More intense development is expected, possibly by early/mid afternoon, in the vicinity of a surface trough across southwest South Dakota/northern Nebraska as ascent with the upper-level trough moves southeast. Additional thunderstorm development is also expected near a weak surface low and trough across northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon, with storms moving south/southeast across western Kansas during the evening. Dew points in the upper 50s/lower 60s, combined with daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, should yield moderate to strong buoyancy by mid afternoon. Around 40 kts of northwest deep-layer shear will support organized storm structures that should merge into clusters and bowing segments with time across western/central Nebraska, western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Damaging winds should be the primary threat given the well-mixed boundary layer and eventual clustering/bowing of storms. Large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts, especially where supercell structures with mid-level rotation can develop. Some hi-res guidance suggests the potential for greater coverage of severe winds, including significant-severe wind potential, over portions of southern South Dakota and western/central Nebraska. Higher wind probabilities/introduction of a sig-severe wind area may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in this scenario increases. ..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a risk for damaging winds and large hail, will be possible Friday from western and central South Dakota south into the northern Texas Panhandle. ...Synopsis... A notable shortwave trough located along the international border/north-central MT at 06z will move southeast across the northern/central Plains on Friday. An expansive upper-level anticyclone will remain in place over much of the southwestern U.S., while a positive-tilt upper trough over the Northeast lifts northward into the Canadian Maritime Provinces. ...Central U.S.... One or two small clusters of thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12z Friday in a weak warm-advection regime over the Dakotas. More intense development is expected, possibly by early/mid afternoon, in the vicinity of a surface trough across southwest South Dakota/northern Nebraska as ascent with the upper-level trough moves southeast. Additional thunderstorm development is also expected near a weak surface low and trough across northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon, with storms moving south/southeast across western Kansas during the evening. Dew points in the upper 50s/lower 60s, combined with daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, should yield moderate to strong buoyancy by mid afternoon. Around 40 kts of northwest deep-layer shear will support organized storm structures that should merge into clusters and bowing segments with time across western/central Nebraska, western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Damaging winds should be the primary threat given the well-mixed boundary layer and eventual clustering/bowing of storms. Large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts, especially where supercell structures with mid-level rotation can develop. Some hi-res guidance suggests the potential for greater coverage of severe winds, including significant-severe wind potential, over portions of southern South Dakota and western/central Nebraska. Higher wind probabilities/introduction of a sig-severe wind area may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in this scenario increases. ..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a risk for damaging winds and large hail, will be possible Friday from western and central South Dakota south into the northern Texas Panhandle. ...Synopsis... A notable shortwave trough located along the international border/north-central MT at 06z will move southeast across the northern/central Plains on Friday. An expansive upper-level anticyclone will remain in place over much of the southwestern U.S., while a positive-tilt upper trough over the Northeast lifts northward into the Canadian Maritime Provinces. ...Central U.S.... One or two small clusters of thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12z Friday in a weak warm-advection regime over the Dakotas. More intense development is expected, possibly by early/mid afternoon, in the vicinity of a surface trough across southwest South Dakota/northern Nebraska as ascent with the upper-level trough moves southeast. Additional thunderstorm development is also expected near a weak surface low and trough across northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon, with storms moving south/southeast across western Kansas during the evening. Dew points in the upper 50s/lower 60s, combined with daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, should yield moderate to strong buoyancy by mid afternoon. Around 40 kts of northwest deep-layer shear will support organized storm structures that should merge into clusters and bowing segments with time across western/central Nebraska, western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Damaging winds should be the primary threat given the well-mixed boundary layer and eventual clustering/bowing of storms. Large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts, especially where supercell structures with mid-level rotation can develop. Some hi-res guidance suggests the potential for greater coverage of severe winds, including significant-severe wind potential, over portions of southern South Dakota and western/central Nebraska. Higher wind probabilities/introduction of a sig-severe wind area may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in this scenario increases. ..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a risk for damaging winds and large hail, will be possible Friday from western and central South Dakota south into the northern Texas Panhandle. ...Synopsis... A notable shortwave trough located along the international border/north-central MT at 06z will move southeast across the northern/central Plains on Friday. An expansive upper-level anticyclone will remain in place over much of the southwestern U.S., while a positive-tilt upper trough over the Northeast lifts northward into the Canadian Maritime Provinces. ...Central U.S.... One or two small clusters of thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12z Friday in a weak warm-advection regime over the Dakotas. More intense development is expected, possibly by early/mid afternoon, in the vicinity of a surface trough across southwest South Dakota/northern Nebraska as ascent with the upper-level trough moves southeast. Additional thunderstorm development is also expected near a weak surface low and trough across northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon, with storms moving south/southeast across western Kansas during the evening. Dew points in the upper 50s/lower 60s, combined with daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, should yield moderate to strong buoyancy by mid afternoon. Around 40 kts of northwest deep-layer shear will support organized storm structures that should merge into clusters and bowing segments with time across western/central Nebraska, western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Damaging winds should be the primary threat given the well-mixed boundary layer and eventual clustering/bowing of storms. Large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts, especially where supercell structures with mid-level rotation can develop. Some hi-res guidance suggests the potential for greater coverage of severe winds, including significant-severe wind potential, over portions of southern South Dakota and western/central Nebraska. Higher wind probabilities/introduction of a sig-severe wind area may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in this scenario increases. ..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/19/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by early next week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Thereafter,
some slow development of this system is possible through the middle
of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Trout are dying in Montana due to low water and high temperatures. The Daily Montanan (Montana), July 19, 2024.

A farmer in Wake County, North Carolina, lost his broccoli, cabbage, and tomato crops to drought this year. He notes that corn and soybean in his area have suffered drought impacts. NBC17 (North Carolina), July 19, 2024.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to damaging gusts will be possible this evening across the coastal Carolinas, portions of the central High Plains, and over central Montana. A few instances of large hail may also occur over the central High Plains. ...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast... Have removed the Slight Risk and trimmed the Marginal Risk to along and immediately downstream of ongoing line/clusters of thunderstorms. Despite mostly non-severe storms during the past few hours, some potential will remain for a couple more hours for a stronger updraft to briefly pose a risk for strong convective gusts. This potential will diminish further after 03/04z as gradual nocturnal cooling continues. ...Central High Plains... Isolated severe storms have occurred over the past few hours east of the foothills in the presence of moderate buoyancy and 25-30 kts of northwesterly shear. Isolated large hail and damaging gusts will remain possible mainly this evening, with the severe wind potential locally maximized where clustering of storms occurs. ...Central MT... A mid-level shortwave trough is expected to continue to provide large-scale ascent through the evening hours, allowing scattered thunderstorms to continue to develop and move generally east/southeast. The boundary layer remains deeply mixed and the potential for isolated strong/damaging gusts will persist into the late evening. ..Bunting.. 07/19/2024 Read more