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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z High pressure will build across the western US with very warm temperatures and dry conditions through the extended period. As a weak shortwave exits the northern Rockies, shallow mid-level moisture will support isolated dry thunderstorm chances across central/eastern Idaho and southern Montana D3/Saturday. Fuels within these regions remain critically dry, supporting inclusion of a 10% risk area. Monsoonal moisture will remain across the Great Basin and gradually shift northward D3/Saturday - D5/Monday as a secondary shortwave rounds the ridge, clipping the Pacific Northwest. This will bring potential for cooler temperatures, increase in thunderstorm coverage, as well as potential for increasing surface winds. Elevated fire-weather concerns may reemerge, along with potential for isolated dry thunderstorm chances. A 10% region was introduced across central/eastern Oregon with this outlook on D3/Saturday. Fire activity in this region has been very active, with fuels remaining critically dry. More areas may be needed into central/western Washington through D6/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains low. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z High pressure will build across the western US with very warm temperatures and dry conditions through the extended period. As a weak shortwave exits the northern Rockies, shallow mid-level moisture will support isolated dry thunderstorm chances across central/eastern Idaho and southern Montana D3/Saturday. Fuels within these regions remain critically dry, supporting inclusion of a 10% risk area. Monsoonal moisture will remain across the Great Basin and gradually shift northward D3/Saturday - D5/Monday as a secondary shortwave rounds the ridge, clipping the Pacific Northwest. This will bring potential for cooler temperatures, increase in thunderstorm coverage, as well as potential for increasing surface winds. Elevated fire-weather concerns may reemerge, along with potential for isolated dry thunderstorm chances. A 10% region was introduced across central/eastern Oregon with this outlook on D3/Saturday. Fire activity in this region has been very active, with fuels remaining critically dry. More areas may be needed into central/western Washington through D6/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains low. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0554 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E GSO TO 25 NNW RWI TO 35 SSW RIC. ..HALBERT..07/18/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-007-013-015-025-029-037-041-049-051-053-055-057-061-063- 065-069-073-079-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105-107-117-119-123- 125-127-131-135-137-139-143-147-151-153-163-165-167-177-179-183- 187-191-195-182140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT BERTIE CABARRUS CAMDEN CHATHAM CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT RANDOLPH RICHMOND SAMPSON SCOTLAND STANLY TYRRELL UNION WAKE WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest concentration of damaging gusts this afternoon/early evening should be over portions of North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Slight risk in central North Carolina where a cluster of thunderstorms are moving off the Appalachians this afternoon. Elsewhere, the outlook remains on track and is unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...VA to GA... A seasonably warm/humid air mass is present today from GA into southeast VA, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon high temperatures likely in the lower 90s most places. Afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg will encourage thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample PWAT for water-loaded downdrafts. The southern fringe of stronger cyclonic westerly flow aloft across this region will result in a few more organized clusters, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1676 for further details. ...High Plains... Thunderstorms will develop once again today off the higher terrain of central CO/NM and spread southeastward through the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow and steep lapse rates will promote a risk of rotating storms capable of gusty winds and hail, although CAM guidance varies on coverage/placement of storms. Therefore will maintain only MRGL outlook at this time. ...Central MT... A strong shortwave trough it tracking northeastward across northern MT into southern MB. Lift in advance of this system should aid in the development scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Plains of central/eastern MT. Full sunshine will steepen low-level lapse rates beneath 30+ knots of westerly flow aloft. High-based supercells and bowing structures are possible, with damaging winds the main threat. The main limiting factor for a more organized severe event appears to be weak moisture/instability (afternoon dewpoints in the mid 40s and CAPE generally below 500 J/kg). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest concentration of damaging gusts this afternoon/early evening should be over portions of North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Slight risk in central North Carolina where a cluster of thunderstorms are moving off the Appalachians this afternoon. Elsewhere, the outlook remains on track and is unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...VA to GA... A seasonably warm/humid air mass is present today from GA into southeast VA, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon high temperatures likely in the lower 90s most places. Afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg will encourage thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample PWAT for water-loaded downdrafts. The southern fringe of stronger cyclonic westerly flow aloft across this region will result in a few more organized clusters, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1676 for further details. ...High Plains... Thunderstorms will develop once again today off the higher terrain of central CO/NM and spread southeastward through the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow and steep lapse rates will promote a risk of rotating storms capable of gusty winds and hail, although CAM guidance varies on coverage/placement of storms. Therefore will maintain only MRGL outlook at this time. ...Central MT... A strong shortwave trough it tracking northeastward across northern MT into southern MB. Lift in advance of this system should aid in the development scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Plains of central/eastern MT. Full sunshine will steepen low-level lapse rates beneath 30+ knots of westerly flow aloft. High-based supercells and bowing structures are possible, with damaging winds the main threat. The main limiting factor for a more organized severe event appears to be weak moisture/instability (afternoon dewpoints in the mid 40s and CAPE generally below 500 J/kg). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest concentration of damaging gusts this afternoon/early evening should be over portions of North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Slight risk in central North Carolina where a cluster of thunderstorms are moving off the Appalachians this afternoon. Elsewhere, the outlook remains on track and is unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...VA to GA... A seasonably warm/humid air mass is present today from GA into southeast VA, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon high temperatures likely in the lower 90s most places. Afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg will encourage thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample PWAT for water-loaded downdrafts. The southern fringe of stronger cyclonic westerly flow aloft across this region will result in a few more organized clusters, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1676 for further details. ...High Plains... Thunderstorms will develop once again today off the higher terrain of central CO/NM and spread southeastward through the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow and steep lapse rates will promote a risk of rotating storms capable of gusty winds and hail, although CAM guidance varies on coverage/placement of storms. Therefore will maintain only MRGL outlook at this time. ...Central MT... A strong shortwave trough it tracking northeastward across northern MT into southern MB. Lift in advance of this system should aid in the development scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Plains of central/eastern MT. Full sunshine will steepen low-level lapse rates beneath 30+ knots of westerly flow aloft. High-based supercells and bowing structures are possible, with damaging winds the main threat. The main limiting factor for a more organized severe event appears to be weak moisture/instability (afternoon dewpoints in the mid 40s and CAPE generally below 500 J/kg). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest concentration of damaging gusts this afternoon/early evening should be over portions of North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Slight risk in central North Carolina where a cluster of thunderstorms are moving off the Appalachians this afternoon. Elsewhere, the outlook remains on track and is unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...VA to GA... A seasonably warm/humid air mass is present today from GA into southeast VA, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon high temperatures likely in the lower 90s most places. Afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg will encourage thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample PWAT for water-loaded downdrafts. The southern fringe of stronger cyclonic westerly flow aloft across this region will result in a few more organized clusters, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1676 for further details. ...High Plains... Thunderstorms will develop once again today off the higher terrain of central CO/NM and spread southeastward through the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow and steep lapse rates will promote a risk of rotating storms capable of gusty winds and hail, although CAM guidance varies on coverage/placement of storms. Therefore will maintain only MRGL outlook at this time. ...Central MT... A strong shortwave trough it tracking northeastward across northern MT into southern MB. Lift in advance of this system should aid in the development scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Plains of central/eastern MT. Full sunshine will steepen low-level lapse rates beneath 30+ knots of westerly flow aloft. High-based supercells and bowing structures are possible, with damaging winds the main threat. The main limiting factor for a more organized severe event appears to be weak moisture/instability (afternoon dewpoints in the mid 40s and CAPE generally below 500 J/kg). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest concentration of damaging gusts this afternoon/early evening should be over portions of North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Slight risk in central North Carolina where a cluster of thunderstorms are moving off the Appalachians this afternoon. Elsewhere, the outlook remains on track and is unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...VA to GA... A seasonably warm/humid air mass is present today from GA into southeast VA, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon high temperatures likely in the lower 90s most places. Afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg will encourage thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample PWAT for water-loaded downdrafts. The southern fringe of stronger cyclonic westerly flow aloft across this region will result in a few more organized clusters, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1676 for further details. ...High Plains... Thunderstorms will develop once again today off the higher terrain of central CO/NM and spread southeastward through the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow and steep lapse rates will promote a risk of rotating storms capable of gusty winds and hail, although CAM guidance varies on coverage/placement of storms. Therefore will maintain only MRGL outlook at this time. ...Central MT... A strong shortwave trough it tracking northeastward across northern MT into southern MB. Lift in advance of this system should aid in the development scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Plains of central/eastern MT. Full sunshine will steepen low-level lapse rates beneath 30+ knots of westerly flow aloft. High-based supercells and bowing structures are possible, with damaging winds the main threat. The main limiting factor for a more organized severe event appears to be weak moisture/instability (afternoon dewpoints in the mid 40s and CAPE generally below 500 J/kg). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest concentration of damaging gusts this afternoon/early evening should be over portions of North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Slight risk in central North Carolina where a cluster of thunderstorms are moving off the Appalachians this afternoon. Elsewhere, the outlook remains on track and is unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...VA to GA... A seasonably warm/humid air mass is present today from GA into southeast VA, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon high temperatures likely in the lower 90s most places. Afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg will encourage thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample PWAT for water-loaded downdrafts. The southern fringe of stronger cyclonic westerly flow aloft across this region will result in a few more organized clusters, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1676 for further details. ...High Plains... Thunderstorms will develop once again today off the higher terrain of central CO/NM and spread southeastward through the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow and steep lapse rates will promote a risk of rotating storms capable of gusty winds and hail, although CAM guidance varies on coverage/placement of storms. Therefore will maintain only MRGL outlook at this time. ...Central MT... A strong shortwave trough it tracking northeastward across northern MT into southern MB. Lift in advance of this system should aid in the development scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Plains of central/eastern MT. Full sunshine will steepen low-level lapse rates beneath 30+ knots of westerly flow aloft. High-based supercells and bowing structures are possible, with damaging winds the main threat. The main limiting factor for a more organized severe event appears to be weak moisture/instability (afternoon dewpoints in the mid 40s and CAPE generally below 500 J/kg). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest concentration of damaging gusts this afternoon/early evening should be over portions of North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Slight risk in central North Carolina where a cluster of thunderstorms are moving off the Appalachians this afternoon. Elsewhere, the outlook remains on track and is unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...VA to GA... A seasonably warm/humid air mass is present today from GA into southeast VA, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon high temperatures likely in the lower 90s most places. Afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg will encourage thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample PWAT for water-loaded downdrafts. The southern fringe of stronger cyclonic westerly flow aloft across this region will result in a few more organized clusters, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1676 for further details. ...High Plains... Thunderstorms will develop once again today off the higher terrain of central CO/NM and spread southeastward through the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow and steep lapse rates will promote a risk of rotating storms capable of gusty winds and hail, although CAM guidance varies on coverage/placement of storms. Therefore will maintain only MRGL outlook at this time. ...Central MT... A strong shortwave trough it tracking northeastward across northern MT into southern MB. Lift in advance of this system should aid in the development scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Plains of central/eastern MT. Full sunshine will steepen low-level lapse rates beneath 30+ knots of westerly flow aloft. High-based supercells and bowing structures are possible, with damaging winds the main threat. The main limiting factor for a more organized severe event appears to be weak moisture/instability (afternoon dewpoints in the mid 40s and CAPE generally below 500 J/kg). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest concentration of damaging gusts this afternoon/early evening should be over portions of North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Slight risk in central North Carolina where a cluster of thunderstorms are moving off the Appalachians this afternoon. Elsewhere, the outlook remains on track and is unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...VA to GA... A seasonably warm/humid air mass is present today from GA into southeast VA, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon high temperatures likely in the lower 90s most places. Afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg will encourage thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample PWAT for water-loaded downdrafts. The southern fringe of stronger cyclonic westerly flow aloft across this region will result in a few more organized clusters, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1676 for further details. ...High Plains... Thunderstorms will develop once again today off the higher terrain of central CO/NM and spread southeastward through the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow and steep lapse rates will promote a risk of rotating storms capable of gusty winds and hail, although CAM guidance varies on coverage/placement of storms. Therefore will maintain only MRGL outlook at this time. ...Central MT... A strong shortwave trough it tracking northeastward across northern MT into southern MB. Lift in advance of this system should aid in the development scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Plains of central/eastern MT. Full sunshine will steepen low-level lapse rates beneath 30+ knots of westerly flow aloft. High-based supercells and bowing structures are possible, with damaging winds the main threat. The main limiting factor for a more organized severe event appears to be weak moisture/instability (afternoon dewpoints in the mid 40s and CAPE generally below 500 J/kg). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest concentration of damaging gusts this afternoon/early evening should be over portions of North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Slight risk in central North Carolina where a cluster of thunderstorms are moving off the Appalachians this afternoon. Elsewhere, the outlook remains on track and is unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...VA to GA... A seasonably warm/humid air mass is present today from GA into southeast VA, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon high temperatures likely in the lower 90s most places. Afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg will encourage thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample PWAT for water-loaded downdrafts. The southern fringe of stronger cyclonic westerly flow aloft across this region will result in a few more organized clusters, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1676 for further details. ...High Plains... Thunderstorms will develop once again today off the higher terrain of central CO/NM and spread southeastward through the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow and steep lapse rates will promote a risk of rotating storms capable of gusty winds and hail, although CAM guidance varies on coverage/placement of storms. Therefore will maintain only MRGL outlook at this time. ...Central MT... A strong shortwave trough it tracking northeastward across northern MT into southern MB. Lift in advance of this system should aid in the development scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Plains of central/eastern MT. Full sunshine will steepen low-level lapse rates beneath 30+ knots of westerly flow aloft. High-based supercells and bowing structures are possible, with damaging winds the main threat. The main limiting factor for a more organized severe event appears to be weak moisture/instability (afternoon dewpoints in the mid 40s and CAPE generally below 500 J/kg). Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm area was reduced across Utah/Colorado/Wyoming with this outlook in agreement with recent trends in data. Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.00" across much of Utah on Friday, with an increase in thunderstorm coverage and potential for wetting rainfall. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances continue across portions of the Great Basin into Idaho/southern Montana. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will continue to slowly expand west and north over the western CONUS Friday. Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist under the influence of this feature, where only very localized wetting rains have occurred through the past week or so. Shallow mid to upper-level monsoonal moisture is still expected over the Great Basin atop a well-mixed boundary layer, where PWAT values will be even lower than the previous day's. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to develop above increasingly receptive fuels Friday afternoon, via orographic ascent, and continue into the early evening. Very little wetting rainfall is expected to accompany this elevated convection. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm area was reduced across Utah/Colorado/Wyoming with this outlook in agreement with recent trends in data. Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.00" across much of Utah on Friday, with an increase in thunderstorm coverage and potential for wetting rainfall. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances continue across portions of the Great Basin into Idaho/southern Montana. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will continue to slowly expand west and north over the western CONUS Friday. Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist under the influence of this feature, where only very localized wetting rains have occurred through the past week or so. Shallow mid to upper-level monsoonal moisture is still expected over the Great Basin atop a well-mixed boundary layer, where PWAT values will be even lower than the previous day's. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to develop above increasingly receptive fuels Friday afternoon, via orographic ascent, and continue into the early evening. Very little wetting rainfall is expected to accompany this elevated convection. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm area was reduced across Utah/Colorado/Wyoming with this outlook in agreement with recent trends in data. Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.00" across much of Utah on Friday, with an increase in thunderstorm coverage and potential for wetting rainfall. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances continue across portions of the Great Basin into Idaho/southern Montana. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will continue to slowly expand west and north over the western CONUS Friday. Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist under the influence of this feature, where only very localized wetting rains have occurred through the past week or so. Shallow mid to upper-level monsoonal moisture is still expected over the Great Basin atop a well-mixed boundary layer, where PWAT values will be even lower than the previous day's. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to develop above increasingly receptive fuels Friday afternoon, via orographic ascent, and continue into the early evening. Very little wetting rainfall is expected to accompany this elevated convection. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm area was reduced across Utah/Colorado/Wyoming with this outlook in agreement with recent trends in data. Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.00" across much of Utah on Friday, with an increase in thunderstorm coverage and potential for wetting rainfall. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances continue across portions of the Great Basin into Idaho/southern Montana. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will continue to slowly expand west and north over the western CONUS Friday. Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist under the influence of this feature, where only very localized wetting rains have occurred through the past week or so. Shallow mid to upper-level monsoonal moisture is still expected over the Great Basin atop a well-mixed boundary layer, where PWAT values will be even lower than the previous day's. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to develop above increasingly receptive fuels Friday afternoon, via orographic ascent, and continue into the early evening. Very little wetting rainfall is expected to accompany this elevated convection. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm area was reduced across Utah/Colorado/Wyoming with this outlook in agreement with recent trends in data. Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.00" across much of Utah on Friday, with an increase in thunderstorm coverage and potential for wetting rainfall. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances continue across portions of the Great Basin into Idaho/southern Montana. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will continue to slowly expand west and north over the western CONUS Friday. Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist under the influence of this feature, where only very localized wetting rains have occurred through the past week or so. Shallow mid to upper-level monsoonal moisture is still expected over the Great Basin atop a well-mixed boundary layer, where PWAT values will be even lower than the previous day's. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to develop above increasingly receptive fuels Friday afternoon, via orographic ascent, and continue into the early evening. Very little wetting rainfall is expected to accompany this elevated convection. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm area was reduced across Utah/Colorado/Wyoming with this outlook in agreement with recent trends in data. Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.00" across much of Utah on Friday, with an increase in thunderstorm coverage and potential for wetting rainfall. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances continue across portions of the Great Basin into Idaho/southern Montana. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will continue to slowly expand west and north over the western CONUS Friday. Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist under the influence of this feature, where only very localized wetting rains have occurred through the past week or so. Shallow mid to upper-level monsoonal moisture is still expected over the Great Basin atop a well-mixed boundary layer, where PWAT values will be even lower than the previous day's. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to develop above increasingly receptive fuels Friday afternoon, via orographic ascent, and continue into the early evening. Very little wetting rainfall is expected to accompany this elevated convection. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm area was reduced across Utah/Colorado/Wyoming with this outlook in agreement with recent trends in data. Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.00" across much of Utah on Friday, with an increase in thunderstorm coverage and potential for wetting rainfall. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances continue across portions of the Great Basin into Idaho/southern Montana. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will continue to slowly expand west and north over the western CONUS Friday. Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist under the influence of this feature, where only very localized wetting rains have occurred through the past week or so. Shallow mid to upper-level monsoonal moisture is still expected over the Great Basin atop a well-mixed boundary layer, where PWAT values will be even lower than the previous day's. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to develop above increasingly receptive fuels Friday afternoon, via orographic ascent, and continue into the early evening. Very little wetting rainfall is expected to accompany this elevated convection. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm area was reduced across Utah/Colorado/Wyoming with this outlook in agreement with recent trends in data. Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.00" across much of Utah on Friday, with an increase in thunderstorm coverage and potential for wetting rainfall. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances continue across portions of the Great Basin into Idaho/southern Montana. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will continue to slowly expand west and north over the western CONUS Friday. Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist under the influence of this feature, where only very localized wetting rains have occurred through the past week or so. Shallow mid to upper-level monsoonal moisture is still expected over the Great Basin atop a well-mixed boundary layer, where PWAT values will be even lower than the previous day's. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to develop above increasingly receptive fuels Friday afternoon, via orographic ascent, and continue into the early evening. Very little wetting rainfall is expected to accompany this elevated convection. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more