SPC Jul 19, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to damaging gusts will be possible this evening across the coastal Carolinas, portions of the central High Plains, and over central Montana. A few instances of large hail may also occur over the central High Plains. ...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast... Have removed the Slight Risk and trimmed the Marginal Risk to along and immediately downstream of ongoing line/clusters of thunderstorms. Despite mostly non-severe storms during the past few hours, some potential will remain for a couple more hours for a stronger updraft to briefly pose a risk for strong convective gusts. This potential will diminish further after 03/04z as gradual nocturnal cooling continues. ...Central High Plains... Isolated severe storms have occurred over the past few hours east of the foothills in the presence of moderate buoyancy and 25-30 kts of northwesterly shear. Isolated large hail and damaging gusts will remain possible mainly this evening, with the severe wind potential locally maximized where clustering of storms occurs. ...Central MT... A mid-level shortwave trough is expected to continue to provide large-scale ascent through the evening hours, allowing scattered thunderstorms to continue to develop and move generally east/southeast. The boundary layer remains deeply mixed and the potential for isolated strong/damaging gusts will persist into the late evening. ..Bunting.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0554 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW SOP TO 20 WSW RDU TO 25 NW EWN TO 20 SSE ECG. ..GRAMS..07/18/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-037-049-051-055-061-085-093-095-101-103-105-107-125-137- 153-163-165-177-191-190040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT CHATHAM CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN HARNETT HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MOORE PAMLICO RICHMOND SAMPSON SCOTLAND TYRRELL WAYNE AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-231-190040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554

1 year ago
WW 554 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 181700Z - 190100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 554 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify across central North Carolina and central Virginia this afternoon and track eastward across the watch area. The strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east southeast of Fayetteville NC to 50 miles northeast of Roanoke Rapids NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Hart Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0554 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW SOP TO 20 WSW RDU TO 25 NW EWN TO 20 SSE ECG. ..GRAMS..07/18/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-037-049-051-055-061-085-093-095-101-103-105-107-125-137- 153-163-165-177-191-190040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT CHATHAM CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN HARNETT HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MOORE PAMLICO RICHMOND SAMPSON SCOTLAND TYRRELL WAYNE AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-231-190040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554

1 year ago
WW 554 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 181700Z - 190100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 554 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify across central North Carolina and central Virginia this afternoon and track eastward across the watch area. The strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east southeast of Fayetteville NC to 50 miles northeast of Roanoke Rapids NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Hart Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 year ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP92):
Shower activity has diminished with a broad area of low pressure
located more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. The system is now fully
embedded in unfavorable environmental conditions, and development
is no longer expected as the low moves generally westward across
the western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by early next week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Thereafter,
some slow development of this system is possible through the middle
of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Drought response implemented for three water systems in Clallam County

1 year ago
The Clallam County Public Utility District No. 1 has implemented drought responses for three of its water systems. Stage 3 response (limits outdoor water use to certain days and prohibits vehicle washing) was imposed on the Island View Water System. Stage 2 response (request for voluntary conservation measures) was imposed on the Fairview and the Clallam Bay/Sekiu water systems. Peninsula Daily News (Washington), July 17, 2024.

SPC MD 1681

1 year ago
MD 1681 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1681 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Areas affected...portions of east-central Colorado and northeast New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182201Z - 182330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms will likely continue this evening with some potential for clustering. Isolated damaging gusts and/or small hail are possible. A WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...East of a large ridge of high pressure centered over the western CONUS, diurnal heating amidst weak upslope flow has allowed for scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central and southern Rockies this afternoon. Surface temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F and dewpoints in the 50s F are supporting weak to moderate destabilization (500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) despite only modest mid-level lapse rates. Observational trends and short-term forecast guidance suggest additional storm development and some intensification/growth into clusters is possible into this evening as storms move southeast off the higher terrain. The moderate buoyancy could support isolated hail while the relatively well-mixed low-levels may favor stronger downdrafts capable of occasional damaging gusts. However, with only modest deep-layer shear (20-25 kt) mostly displaced farther east, storm organization and longevity will likely be tied to the consolidation of individual outflows supporting more sustained clusters. While confidence is not overly high, short-term guidance suggests some intensification and a severe risk are possible this evening, especially across southeastern CO into northeast NM where storm coverage is greatest. Still, given the uncertainties associated with storm organization and the subsequent severe risk, a WW appears unlikely. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 40110571 40620553 40440458 40000419 38930364 36210337 35220404 35070489 35130535 35700560 37820546 40110571 Read more

SPC MD 1680

1 year ago
MD 1680 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 554... FOR EASTERN/SOUTHERN NC TO THE SC MIDLANDS
Mesoscale Discussion 1680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Areas affected...eastern/southern NC to the SC Midlands Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554... Valid 182132Z - 182300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic tree damage should persist through about dusk with strong gusts from 40-60 mph. DISCUSSION...An arcing broken convective band with loose multicell clustering is ongoing from northeast NC westward to central NC and then southwestward into upstate SC. Outflow attendant to the more westward portion of the band has pushed south of the stronger mid-level flow over southern VA per area VWPs. As such, overall organizational potential should remain weak, but might be slightly better across southern NC as convection upstate overspreads the southward-sinking outflow in the southern NC Piedmont. With a fairly uniform plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, sporadic strong gusts capable of tree damage will remain possible, before convection likely weakens after sunset. ..Grams.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 36267586 35667565 34917692 34377813 33887945 33088174 33858256 35098083 35528013 35587930 35437785 36177643 36267586 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0554 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GSO TO 10 WNW GSB TO 50 N EWN TO 35 ENE ECG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1680. ..GRAMS..07/18/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC007-013-037-049-051-055-061-079-085-093-095-101-103-105-107- 123-125-137-147-151-153-163-165-177-179-187-191-182340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON BEAUFORT CHATHAM CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN GREENE HARNETT HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MONTGOMERY MOORE PAMLICO PITT RANDOLPH RICHMOND SAMPSON SCOTLAND TYRRELL UNION WASHINGTON WAYNE AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-230-231-ANZ658-182340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0554 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE GSO TO 30 ESE RWI TO 5 NE ORF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1680. ..GRAMS..07/18/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC007-013-015-025-029-037-041-049-051-053-055-057-061-079-085- 093-095-101-103-105-107-117-119-123-125-137-139-143-147-151-153- 163-165-167-177-179-183-187-191-195-182240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON BEAUFORT BERTIE CABARRUS CAMDEN CHATHAM CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON DUPLIN GREENE HARNETT HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT RANDOLPH RICHMOND SAMPSON SCOTLAND STANLY TYRRELL UNION WAKE WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON Read more

SPC MD 1679

1 year ago
MD 1679 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1679 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181932Z - 182130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts are possible across portions of central MT this afternoon and evening. The severe threat is currently expected to remain sparse, so a WW issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A mid-level impulse/500 mb vort max is pivoting around the upper ridge while traversing the AB/MT border area, which in tandem with strong surface heating, is supporting recent attempts at convective initiation (per latest visible satellite). While MLCINH still remains (per 19Z mesoanalysis), continued surface heating and approach of the 500 mb vort max should support a gradual increase in coverage and intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some vertical speed shear induced by the approaching mid-level impulse will support elongated hodographs, with multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two possible. 19Z mesoanalysis also shows 8+ C/km lapse rates extending from just above the surface to over 500 mb, indicative of the potential for efficient downward momentum transport via evaporative cooling. As such, any storm that develops has at least some potential for producing a severe gust. At the moment, it appears that the severe threat should be isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 45600946 46311081 47541204 48591287 49021283 49051199 48571046 47400885 46500814 45910789 45680800 45570872 45600946 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z High pressure will build across the western US with very warm temperatures and dry conditions through the extended period. As a weak shortwave exits the northern Rockies, shallow mid-level moisture will support isolated dry thunderstorm chances across central/eastern Idaho and southern Montana D3/Saturday. Fuels within these regions remain critically dry, supporting inclusion of a 10% risk area. Monsoonal moisture will remain across the Great Basin and gradually shift northward D3/Saturday - D5/Monday as a secondary shortwave rounds the ridge, clipping the Pacific Northwest. This will bring potential for cooler temperatures, increase in thunderstorm coverage, as well as potential for increasing surface winds. Elevated fire-weather concerns may reemerge, along with potential for isolated dry thunderstorm chances. A 10% region was introduced across central/eastern Oregon with this outlook on D3/Saturday. Fire activity in this region has been very active, with fuels remaining critically dry. More areas may be needed into central/western Washington through D6/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains low. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z High pressure will build across the western US with very warm temperatures and dry conditions through the extended period. As a weak shortwave exits the northern Rockies, shallow mid-level moisture will support isolated dry thunderstorm chances across central/eastern Idaho and southern Montana D3/Saturday. Fuels within these regions remain critically dry, supporting inclusion of a 10% risk area. Monsoonal moisture will remain across the Great Basin and gradually shift northward D3/Saturday - D5/Monday as a secondary shortwave rounds the ridge, clipping the Pacific Northwest. This will bring potential for cooler temperatures, increase in thunderstorm coverage, as well as potential for increasing surface winds. Elevated fire-weather concerns may reemerge, along with potential for isolated dry thunderstorm chances. A 10% region was introduced across central/eastern Oregon with this outlook on D3/Saturday. Fire activity in this region has been very active, with fuels remaining critically dry. More areas may be needed into central/western Washington through D6/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains low. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z High pressure will build across the western US with very warm temperatures and dry conditions through the extended period. As a weak shortwave exits the northern Rockies, shallow mid-level moisture will support isolated dry thunderstorm chances across central/eastern Idaho and southern Montana D3/Saturday. Fuels within these regions remain critically dry, supporting inclusion of a 10% risk area. Monsoonal moisture will remain across the Great Basin and gradually shift northward D3/Saturday - D5/Monday as a secondary shortwave rounds the ridge, clipping the Pacific Northwest. This will bring potential for cooler temperatures, increase in thunderstorm coverage, as well as potential for increasing surface winds. Elevated fire-weather concerns may reemerge, along with potential for isolated dry thunderstorm chances. A 10% region was introduced across central/eastern Oregon with this outlook on D3/Saturday. Fire activity in this region has been very active, with fuels remaining critically dry. More areas may be needed into central/western Washington through D6/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains low. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z High pressure will build across the western US with very warm temperatures and dry conditions through the extended period. As a weak shortwave exits the northern Rockies, shallow mid-level moisture will support isolated dry thunderstorm chances across central/eastern Idaho and southern Montana D3/Saturday. Fuels within these regions remain critically dry, supporting inclusion of a 10% risk area. Monsoonal moisture will remain across the Great Basin and gradually shift northward D3/Saturday - D5/Monday as a secondary shortwave rounds the ridge, clipping the Pacific Northwest. This will bring potential for cooler temperatures, increase in thunderstorm coverage, as well as potential for increasing surface winds. Elevated fire-weather concerns may reemerge, along with potential for isolated dry thunderstorm chances. A 10% region was introduced across central/eastern Oregon with this outlook on D3/Saturday. Fire activity in this region has been very active, with fuels remaining critically dry. More areas may be needed into central/western Washington through D6/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains low. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z High pressure will build across the western US with very warm temperatures and dry conditions through the extended period. As a weak shortwave exits the northern Rockies, shallow mid-level moisture will support isolated dry thunderstorm chances across central/eastern Idaho and southern Montana D3/Saturday. Fuels within these regions remain critically dry, supporting inclusion of a 10% risk area. Monsoonal moisture will remain across the Great Basin and gradually shift northward D3/Saturday - D5/Monday as a secondary shortwave rounds the ridge, clipping the Pacific Northwest. This will bring potential for cooler temperatures, increase in thunderstorm coverage, as well as potential for increasing surface winds. Elevated fire-weather concerns may reemerge, along with potential for isolated dry thunderstorm chances. A 10% region was introduced across central/eastern Oregon with this outlook on D3/Saturday. Fire activity in this region has been very active, with fuels remaining critically dry. More areas may be needed into central/western Washington through D6/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains low. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z High pressure will build across the western US with very warm temperatures and dry conditions through the extended period. As a weak shortwave exits the northern Rockies, shallow mid-level moisture will support isolated dry thunderstorm chances across central/eastern Idaho and southern Montana D3/Saturday. Fuels within these regions remain critically dry, supporting inclusion of a 10% risk area. Monsoonal moisture will remain across the Great Basin and gradually shift northward D3/Saturday - D5/Monday as a secondary shortwave rounds the ridge, clipping the Pacific Northwest. This will bring potential for cooler temperatures, increase in thunderstorm coverage, as well as potential for increasing surface winds. Elevated fire-weather concerns may reemerge, along with potential for isolated dry thunderstorm chances. A 10% region was introduced across central/eastern Oregon with this outlook on D3/Saturday. Fire activity in this region has been very active, with fuels remaining critically dry. More areas may be needed into central/western Washington through D6/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains low. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z High pressure will build across the western US with very warm temperatures and dry conditions through the extended period. As a weak shortwave exits the northern Rockies, shallow mid-level moisture will support isolated dry thunderstorm chances across central/eastern Idaho and southern Montana D3/Saturday. Fuels within these regions remain critically dry, supporting inclusion of a 10% risk area. Monsoonal moisture will remain across the Great Basin and gradually shift northward D3/Saturday - D5/Monday as a secondary shortwave rounds the ridge, clipping the Pacific Northwest. This will bring potential for cooler temperatures, increase in thunderstorm coverage, as well as potential for increasing surface winds. Elevated fire-weather concerns may reemerge, along with potential for isolated dry thunderstorm chances. A 10% region was introduced across central/eastern Oregon with this outlook on D3/Saturday. Fire activity in this region has been very active, with fuels remaining critically dry. More areas may be needed into central/western Washington through D6/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains low. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more