Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm area was reduced across Utah/Colorado/Wyoming with this outlook in agreement with recent trends in data. Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.00" across much of Utah on Friday, with an increase in thunderstorm coverage and potential for wetting rainfall. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances continue across portions of the Great Basin into Idaho/southern Montana. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will continue to slowly expand west and north over the western CONUS Friday. Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist under the influence of this feature, where only very localized wetting rains have occurred through the past week or so. Shallow mid to upper-level monsoonal moisture is still expected over the Great Basin atop a well-mixed boundary layer, where PWAT values will be even lower than the previous day's. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to develop above increasingly receptive fuels Friday afternoon, via orographic ascent, and continue into the early evening. Very little wetting rainfall is expected to accompany this elevated convection. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1677 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1677 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Areas affected...Northern Georgia into eastern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181752Z - 181945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated reports of damaging winds are possible across northern Georgia into eastern South Carolina and portions of southwestern North Carolina. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased across portions of northern Georgia, southwestern North Carolina, and eastern South Carolina, as convective temperature has been reached across much of the area. Precipitable water values approaching the 90th percentile for the region, coupled with meager vertical shear of only 20 kts, will result in a localized threat for water loaded updrafts collapsing into downbursts capable of severe winds. Overall convective organization is expected to remain low, though some loosely organized bowing convective segments are possible where outflow interactions are favorable. This convective activity will then diminish after sunset. ..Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 35068514 35178435 35268348 35568260 35768216 35928178 35858124 35378089 34898093 34428106 33998149 33808214 33838294 33878328 33958430 34248491 34718532 35068514 Read more

MD 1678 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1678 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeast Louisiana into extreme southern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181822Z - 181915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular convection has recently organized into an MCS with some bowing characteristics associated with merging cold pools. This bowing feature is progressing into a strongly unstable environment (i.e. 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) driven by strong surface heating and low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints. Though vertical wind shear is weak, this bowing structure/cold pool progressing into this buoyant airmass may promote the development of strong wind gusts, and a severe gust cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, the severe threat should be sparse, so a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30989158 31269090 31139000 30848942 30488937 30148949 29968988 30079049 30179092 30369106 30989158 Read more

WW 0554 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 554 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..07/18/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-007-013-015-025-029-037-041-049-051-053-055-057-061-063- 065-069-073-077-079-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105-107-117-119- 123-125-127-131-135-137-139-143-145-147-151-153-163-165-167-177- 179-181-183-185-187-191-195-181940- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT BERTIE CABARRUS CAMDEN CHATHAM CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT RANDOLPH RICHMOND SAMPSON SCOTLAND STANLY TYRRELL UNION VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms well removed
from its center. Environmental conditions have become less
conducive, with stronger upper-level winds and cooler waters, and
further development of this system is unlikely. The low is forecast
to move generally westward at about 10 mph across the
western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by late this weekend a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Thereafter,
some slow development of this system is possible through the middle
of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains on Friday. The most organized storms are expected from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge will remain across the West on Friday. A shortwave trough initially in eastern Montana will slide southeastward around the upper ridge into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a broad surface high within the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will begin to gradually weaken. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a modest lee low/trough will develop from near the Black Hills into the southern High Plains. Moisture return will occur along the western periphery of the surface ridge and support severe storm development in the northern/central High Plains and adjacent Plains to the east. ...Northern/Central Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms are most likely to develop within the lee trough and around/near the weak surface low that will move southward from western South Dakota into Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas will have somewhat limited low-level moisture, especially with northern and western extent. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow along with moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support 35-45 kts of effective shear. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Greater storm coverage is expected ahead of the mid-level trough and surface low parts of western/central Nebraska. Storms will at least initially be cellular and have potential for large hail. Greater hail risk should be mitigated by rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads and expected outflow dominant storms. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, particularly if any clustering can occur. A weak low-level jet may support some storm maintenance into the evening, but this it is not certain given how modest the jet will be. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains on Friday. The most organized storms are expected from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge will remain across the West on Friday. A shortwave trough initially in eastern Montana will slide southeastward around the upper ridge into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a broad surface high within the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will begin to gradually weaken. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a modest lee low/trough will develop from near the Black Hills into the southern High Plains. Moisture return will occur along the western periphery of the surface ridge and support severe storm development in the northern/central High Plains and adjacent Plains to the east. ...Northern/Central Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms are most likely to develop within the lee trough and around/near the weak surface low that will move southward from western South Dakota into Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas will have somewhat limited low-level moisture, especially with northern and western extent. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow along with moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support 35-45 kts of effective shear. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Greater storm coverage is expected ahead of the mid-level trough and surface low parts of western/central Nebraska. Storms will at least initially be cellular and have potential for large hail. Greater hail risk should be mitigated by rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads and expected outflow dominant storms. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, particularly if any clustering can occur. A weak low-level jet may support some storm maintenance into the evening, but this it is not certain given how modest the jet will be. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains on Friday. The most organized storms are expected from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge will remain across the West on Friday. A shortwave trough initially in eastern Montana will slide southeastward around the upper ridge into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a broad surface high within the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will begin to gradually weaken. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a modest lee low/trough will develop from near the Black Hills into the southern High Plains. Moisture return will occur along the western periphery of the surface ridge and support severe storm development in the northern/central High Plains and adjacent Plains to the east. ...Northern/Central Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms are most likely to develop within the lee trough and around/near the weak surface low that will move southward from western South Dakota into Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas will have somewhat limited low-level moisture, especially with northern and western extent. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow along with moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support 35-45 kts of effective shear. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Greater storm coverage is expected ahead of the mid-level trough and surface low parts of western/central Nebraska. Storms will at least initially be cellular and have potential for large hail. Greater hail risk should be mitigated by rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads and expected outflow dominant storms. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, particularly if any clustering can occur. A weak low-level jet may support some storm maintenance into the evening, but this it is not certain given how modest the jet will be. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains on Friday. The most organized storms are expected from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge will remain across the West on Friday. A shortwave trough initially in eastern Montana will slide southeastward around the upper ridge into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a broad surface high within the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will begin to gradually weaken. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a modest lee low/trough will develop from near the Black Hills into the southern High Plains. Moisture return will occur along the western periphery of the surface ridge and support severe storm development in the northern/central High Plains and adjacent Plains to the east. ...Northern/Central Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms are most likely to develop within the lee trough and around/near the weak surface low that will move southward from western South Dakota into Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas will have somewhat limited low-level moisture, especially with northern and western extent. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow along with moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support 35-45 kts of effective shear. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Greater storm coverage is expected ahead of the mid-level trough and surface low parts of western/central Nebraska. Storms will at least initially be cellular and have potential for large hail. Greater hail risk should be mitigated by rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads and expected outflow dominant storms. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, particularly if any clustering can occur. A weak low-level jet may support some storm maintenance into the evening, but this it is not certain given how modest the jet will be. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains on Friday. The most organized storms are expected from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge will remain across the West on Friday. A shortwave trough initially in eastern Montana will slide southeastward around the upper ridge into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a broad surface high within the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will begin to gradually weaken. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a modest lee low/trough will develop from near the Black Hills into the southern High Plains. Moisture return will occur along the western periphery of the surface ridge and support severe storm development in the northern/central High Plains and adjacent Plains to the east. ...Northern/Central Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms are most likely to develop within the lee trough and around/near the weak surface low that will move southward from western South Dakota into Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas will have somewhat limited low-level moisture, especially with northern and western extent. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow along with moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support 35-45 kts of effective shear. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Greater storm coverage is expected ahead of the mid-level trough and surface low parts of western/central Nebraska. Storms will at least initially be cellular and have potential for large hail. Greater hail risk should be mitigated by rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads and expected outflow dominant storms. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, particularly if any clustering can occur. A weak low-level jet may support some storm maintenance into the evening, but this it is not certain given how modest the jet will be. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains on Friday. The most organized storms are expected from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge will remain across the West on Friday. A shortwave trough initially in eastern Montana will slide southeastward around the upper ridge into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a broad surface high within the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will begin to gradually weaken. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a modest lee low/trough will develop from near the Black Hills into the southern High Plains. Moisture return will occur along the western periphery of the surface ridge and support severe storm development in the northern/central High Plains and adjacent Plains to the east. ...Northern/Central Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms are most likely to develop within the lee trough and around/near the weak surface low that will move southward from western South Dakota into Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas will have somewhat limited low-level moisture, especially with northern and western extent. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow along with moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support 35-45 kts of effective shear. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Greater storm coverage is expected ahead of the mid-level trough and surface low parts of western/central Nebraska. Storms will at least initially be cellular and have potential for large hail. Greater hail risk should be mitigated by rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads and expected outflow dominant storms. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, particularly if any clustering can occur. A weak low-level jet may support some storm maintenance into the evening, but this it is not certain given how modest the jet will be. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains on Friday. The most organized storms are expected from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge will remain across the West on Friday. A shortwave trough initially in eastern Montana will slide southeastward around the upper ridge into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a broad surface high within the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will begin to gradually weaken. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a modest lee low/trough will develop from near the Black Hills into the southern High Plains. Moisture return will occur along the western periphery of the surface ridge and support severe storm development in the northern/central High Plains and adjacent Plains to the east. ...Northern/Central Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms are most likely to develop within the lee trough and around/near the weak surface low that will move southward from western South Dakota into Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas will have somewhat limited low-level moisture, especially with northern and western extent. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow along with moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support 35-45 kts of effective shear. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Greater storm coverage is expected ahead of the mid-level trough and surface low parts of western/central Nebraska. Storms will at least initially be cellular and have potential for large hail. Greater hail risk should be mitigated by rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads and expected outflow dominant storms. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, particularly if any clustering can occur. A weak low-level jet may support some storm maintenance into the evening, but this it is not certain given how modest the jet will be. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains on Friday. The most organized storms are expected from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge will remain across the West on Friday. A shortwave trough initially in eastern Montana will slide southeastward around the upper ridge into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a broad surface high within the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will begin to gradually weaken. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a modest lee low/trough will develop from near the Black Hills into the southern High Plains. Moisture return will occur along the western periphery of the surface ridge and support severe storm development in the northern/central High Plains and adjacent Plains to the east. ...Northern/Central Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms are most likely to develop within the lee trough and around/near the weak surface low that will move southward from western South Dakota into Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas will have somewhat limited low-level moisture, especially with northern and western extent. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow along with moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support 35-45 kts of effective shear. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Greater storm coverage is expected ahead of the mid-level trough and surface low parts of western/central Nebraska. Storms will at least initially be cellular and have potential for large hail. Greater hail risk should be mitigated by rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads and expected outflow dominant storms. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, particularly if any clustering can occur. A weak low-level jet may support some storm maintenance into the evening, but this it is not certain given how modest the jet will be. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains on Friday. The most organized storms are expected from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge will remain across the West on Friday. A shortwave trough initially in eastern Montana will slide southeastward around the upper ridge into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a broad surface high within the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will begin to gradually weaken. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a modest lee low/trough will develop from near the Black Hills into the southern High Plains. Moisture return will occur along the western periphery of the surface ridge and support severe storm development in the northern/central High Plains and adjacent Plains to the east. ...Northern/Central Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms are most likely to develop within the lee trough and around/near the weak surface low that will move southward from western South Dakota into Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas will have somewhat limited low-level moisture, especially with northern and western extent. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow along with moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support 35-45 kts of effective shear. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Greater storm coverage is expected ahead of the mid-level trough and surface low parts of western/central Nebraska. Storms will at least initially be cellular and have potential for large hail. Greater hail risk should be mitigated by rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads and expected outflow dominant storms. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, particularly if any clustering can occur. A weak low-level jet may support some storm maintenance into the evening, but this it is not certain given how modest the jet will be. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains on Friday. The most organized storms are expected from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge will remain across the West on Friday. A shortwave trough initially in eastern Montana will slide southeastward around the upper ridge into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a broad surface high within the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will begin to gradually weaken. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a modest lee low/trough will develop from near the Black Hills into the southern High Plains. Moisture return will occur along the western periphery of the surface ridge and support severe storm development in the northern/central High Plains and adjacent Plains to the east. ...Northern/Central Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms are most likely to develop within the lee trough and around/near the weak surface low that will move southward from western South Dakota into Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas will have somewhat limited low-level moisture, especially with northern and western extent. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow along with moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support 35-45 kts of effective shear. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Greater storm coverage is expected ahead of the mid-level trough and surface low parts of western/central Nebraska. Storms will at least initially be cellular and have potential for large hail. Greater hail risk should be mitigated by rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads and expected outflow dominant storms. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, particularly if any clustering can occur. A weak low-level jet may support some storm maintenance into the evening, but this it is not certain given how modest the jet will be. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains on Friday. The most organized storms are expected from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge will remain across the West on Friday. A shortwave trough initially in eastern Montana will slide southeastward around the upper ridge into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a broad surface high within the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will begin to gradually weaken. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a modest lee low/trough will develop from near the Black Hills into the southern High Plains. Moisture return will occur along the western periphery of the surface ridge and support severe storm development in the northern/central High Plains and adjacent Plains to the east. ...Northern/Central Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms are most likely to develop within the lee trough and around/near the weak surface low that will move southward from western South Dakota into Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas will have somewhat limited low-level moisture, especially with northern and western extent. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow along with moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support 35-45 kts of effective shear. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Greater storm coverage is expected ahead of the mid-level trough and surface low parts of western/central Nebraska. Storms will at least initially be cellular and have potential for large hail. Greater hail risk should be mitigated by rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads and expected outflow dominant storms. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, particularly if any clustering can occur. A weak low-level jet may support some storm maintenance into the evening, but this it is not certain given how modest the jet will be. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2024 Read more

MD 1676 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1676 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Areas affected...North Carolina into southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181530Z - 181730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging straight-line winds are possible this afternoon across much of North Carolina, as well as portions of southern Virginia. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later. DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and an ongoing MCS over southwestern Virginia will serve as the foci for convective development this afternoon. Morning observed soundings from MHX and GSO show moist, tropical profiles that will require very little daytime heating/mixing to convect. Short term model guidance and radar trends show intensification of the ongoing MCS in Virginia, which is expected to continue to move eastward across Virginia and potentially portions of northeastern North Carolina. Other storms will develop further south across North Carolina as the surface reaches convective temperatures. There is little in the way of upper-level support for organized convection, with observed soundings showing only 20 kts of deep-layer shear, and forecast profiles across North Carolina only ever approaching 30 kts. The expectation is for these storms to evolve into multi-cell clusters and loosely organized bowing segments, capable of damaging wind gusts. Additionally, the relative lack of shear combined with precipitable water vapor values at or exceeding the 90th percentile for the region, will result in an environment that supports water loaded updrafts collapsing into downbursts capable of severe winds. ..Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 35338177 35628205 36098184 36638135 36798122 36948025 37117888 37347761 37167649 36887603 36607559 36177544 35867532 35407534 35027551 34667601 34317665 33957802 34237871 34737940 34927987 35018028 35208109 35338177 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm chances were adjusted in line with recent observations and trends. The most notable change was to remove isolated dry thunder from Utah. Morning sounding observations from SLC indicated 0.91" of precipitable water. Surface objective analysis and satellite observations further supports this, with around 0.80-0.90" of precipitable water extending across southwestern Utah into northern Utah. Some of the region across central Nevada was also trimmed to account for increasing moisture across southern Nevada, as well as recent trends in ERCs dropping to around the 60th percentile with recent rainfall/increased humidity. Though high-based storms with gusty outflow are likely, afternoon coverage in these areas will also be increasing today, with relatively slow storm motions which should aid in reducing the dry lightning risk. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected over most of the Great Basin and portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin Thursday afternoon and evening. A shallow plume of mid to upper-level moisture will remain in place Thursday within a broad ridge extending over most of the western CONUS. Orographic ascent juxtaposed with this moisture, combined with relatively low PWAT values and a very well-mixed boundary layer up to or exceeding 3 km, will support isolated dry lightning. Some locations within the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area across UT may receive wetting rains, but these areas were too confined to exclude them given fairly widespread ERC percentiles above 85. In addition to dry thunderstorms, westerly downslope gusty winds and low relative humidity may support very localized elevated fire weather conditions in the southern lee of the Cascades. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm chances were adjusted in line with recent observations and trends. The most notable change was to remove isolated dry thunder from Utah. Morning sounding observations from SLC indicated 0.91" of precipitable water. Surface objective analysis and satellite observations further supports this, with around 0.80-0.90" of precipitable water extending across southwestern Utah into northern Utah. Some of the region across central Nevada was also trimmed to account for increasing moisture across southern Nevada, as well as recent trends in ERCs dropping to around the 60th percentile with recent rainfall/increased humidity. Though high-based storms with gusty outflow are likely, afternoon coverage in these areas will also be increasing today, with relatively slow storm motions which should aid in reducing the dry lightning risk. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected over most of the Great Basin and portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin Thursday afternoon and evening. A shallow plume of mid to upper-level moisture will remain in place Thursday within a broad ridge extending over most of the western CONUS. Orographic ascent juxtaposed with this moisture, combined with relatively low PWAT values and a very well-mixed boundary layer up to or exceeding 3 km, will support isolated dry lightning. Some locations within the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area across UT may receive wetting rains, but these areas were too confined to exclude them given fairly widespread ERC percentiles above 85. In addition to dry thunderstorms, westerly downslope gusty winds and low relative humidity may support very localized elevated fire weather conditions in the southern lee of the Cascades. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm chances were adjusted in line with recent observations and trends. The most notable change was to remove isolated dry thunder from Utah. Morning sounding observations from SLC indicated 0.91" of precipitable water. Surface objective analysis and satellite observations further supports this, with around 0.80-0.90" of precipitable water extending across southwestern Utah into northern Utah. Some of the region across central Nevada was also trimmed to account for increasing moisture across southern Nevada, as well as recent trends in ERCs dropping to around the 60th percentile with recent rainfall/increased humidity. Though high-based storms with gusty outflow are likely, afternoon coverage in these areas will also be increasing today, with relatively slow storm motions which should aid in reducing the dry lightning risk. ..Thornton.. 07/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected over most of the Great Basin and portions of the Upper Colorado River Basin Thursday afternoon and evening. A shallow plume of mid to upper-level moisture will remain in place Thursday within a broad ridge extending over most of the western CONUS. Orographic ascent juxtaposed with this moisture, combined with relatively low PWAT values and a very well-mixed boundary layer up to or exceeding 3 km, will support isolated dry lightning. Some locations within the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area across UT may receive wetting rains, but these areas were too confined to exclude them given fairly widespread ERC percentiles above 85. In addition to dry thunderstorms, westerly downslope gusty winds and low relative humidity may support very localized elevated fire weather conditions in the southern lee of the Cascades. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more