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MD 1683 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1683 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Areas affected...Central/Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 192141Z - 192245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...New Severe Thunderstorm Watch appears warranted for portions of the central/southern High Plains. DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave trough is evident within water-vapor imagery digging south-southeast across the central Plains. Scattered convection now reflects the leading edge of this feature, with thunderstorms gradually increasing across the central portions of ww555 from northwestern KS into eastern CO. This activity should propagate south along the primary corridor of instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) toward the OK Panhandle later this evening. While LLJ is not forecast to be that strong, 25kt southerly jet should aid in the longevity of this activity as it spreads south across the High Plains. Damaging winds are the main risk, though some hail is possible. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 38220286 38379925 37419877 36340001 36460223 38220286 Read more

WW 0555 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 555 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/19/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...ICT...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 555 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-125-192240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON YUMA KSC009-023-039-051-063-065-071-101-109-135-137-141-147-153-163- 165-167-171-179-181-183-193-195-199-203-192240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON CHEYENNE DECATUR ELLIS GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LANE LOGAN NESS NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN SMITH THOMAS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NEC057-065-083-087-145-192240- Read more

WW 0555 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 555 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/19/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...ICT...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 555 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-125-192240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON YUMA KSC009-023-039-051-063-065-071-101-109-135-137-141-147-153-163- 165-167-171-179-181-183-193-195-199-203-192240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON CHEYENNE DECATUR ELLIS GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LANE LOGAN NESS NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN SMITH THOMAS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NEC057-065-083-087-145-192240- Read more

WW 0555 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 555 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/19/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...ICT...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 555 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-125-192240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON YUMA KSC009-023-039-051-063-065-071-101-109-135-137-141-147-153-163- 165-167-171-179-181-183-193-195-199-203-192240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON CHEYENNE DECATUR ELLIS GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LANE LOGAN NESS NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN SMITH THOMAS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NEC057-065-083-087-145-192240- Read more

WW 555 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 191925Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 555 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western and Central Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify through the afternoon and into the evening. The stronger storms will be capable of a risk for large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-75 mph). A linear thunderstorm cluster is expected to eventually evolve by evening with the primary risk becoming a wind hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Burlington CO to 25 miles north northeast of Russell KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32025. ...Smith Read more

A farmer in West Virginia has lost half of his blueberry crop and has only been able to save his blackberries and raspberries by running sprinklers nearly constantly. He is also contending with a hay shortage due to the drought. 13 News (West Virginia), July 18, 2024.

A Tennessee farmer has only been able to harvest about half the amount of corn expected due to drought. WKRN (TN), July 18, 2024.

A farm in Chattanooga has insufficient water and pasture for their cattle, so they are feeding hay and using hoses to water instead of the creek. Their pigs also need to be hosed off to keep cool as they don't have mud to wallow in. Local 3 News (Tennessee), July 19, 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Western U.S. Day 3/Sunday through the middle of the week, promoting very warm and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to slide northward along the Oregon and Washington coastlines Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the mid/upper-level ridging may begin to breakdown toward the middle of the week around Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday across portions of the Northwest U.S. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase late Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday across portions of the Pacific Northwest as ascent increases associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Fast-moving thunderstorms and receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) will favor efficient lightning ignitions, especially along the periphery of heavier storm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to shift a bit further east Day 4/Monday into eastern portions of the Northwest U.S. and the northern Great Basin. However, confidence remains too low to introduce a dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Winds and Relative Humidity... Surface winds are expected to increase in terrain-favored areas to the east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington beginning as early as Day 3/Sunday and continuing through Day 5/Tuesday, as stronger mid-level flow impinges on the area. While elevated to locally critical conditions are possible, the coverage and/or duration of critical conditions currently appears too low to introduce a Critical probability area. A greater potential for larger-scale Elevated to Critical conditions across the Western United States is expected to accompany at least a partial breakdown of the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge near the middle of the week. Though, at this time, there is too much uncertainty to introduce a Critical probability area. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more