SPC Jul 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts are possible in parts of the High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the northern Rockies which is quickly advancing into the High Plains. A substantial complex of storms has evolved ahead of this feature, and an MCS appears to be maturing over central NE. As this complex grows upscale, an MCV may evolve over the next few hours within the larger precip shield north of Broken Bow NE. Leading edge of this complex is surging east and this convection should continue propagating east as the LLJ begins to focus toward the MO Valley. Several other bands of robust convection have also developed across the central High Plains from portions of western KS into eastern CO. This activity, too, will propagate east-southeast this evening with an attendant threat for damaging winds, and perhaps some very large hail with any supercell structures. Although, much of this activity has evolved into a squall line, and damaging winds may become the primary risk. Overall, multiple clusters of organized convection will progress across the central Plains this evening toward the lower MO Valley after midnight. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts are possible in parts of the High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the northern Rockies which is quickly advancing into the High Plains. A substantial complex of storms has evolved ahead of this feature, and an MCS appears to be maturing over central NE. As this complex grows upscale, an MCV may evolve over the next few hours within the larger precip shield north of Broken Bow NE. Leading edge of this complex is surging east and this convection should continue propagating east as the LLJ begins to focus toward the MO Valley. Several other bands of robust convection have also developed across the central High Plains from portions of western KS into eastern CO. This activity, too, will propagate east-southeast this evening with an attendant threat for damaging winds, and perhaps some very large hail with any supercell structures. Although, much of this activity has evolved into a squall line, and damaging winds may become the primary risk. Overall, multiple clusters of organized convection will progress across the central Plains this evening toward the lower MO Valley after midnight. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts are possible in parts of the High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the northern Rockies which is quickly advancing into the High Plains. A substantial complex of storms has evolved ahead of this feature, and an MCS appears to be maturing over central NE. As this complex grows upscale, an MCV may evolve over the next few hours within the larger precip shield north of Broken Bow NE. Leading edge of this complex is surging east and this convection should continue propagating east as the LLJ begins to focus toward the MO Valley. Several other bands of robust convection have also developed across the central High Plains from portions of western KS into eastern CO. This activity, too, will propagate east-southeast this evening with an attendant threat for damaging winds, and perhaps some very large hail with any supercell structures. Although, much of this activity has evolved into a squall line, and damaging winds may become the primary risk. Overall, multiple clusters of organized convection will progress across the central Plains this evening toward the lower MO Valley after midnight. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts are possible in parts of the High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the northern Rockies which is quickly advancing into the High Plains. A substantial complex of storms has evolved ahead of this feature, and an MCS appears to be maturing over central NE. As this complex grows upscale, an MCV may evolve over the next few hours within the larger precip shield north of Broken Bow NE. Leading edge of this complex is surging east and this convection should continue propagating east as the LLJ begins to focus toward the MO Valley. Several other bands of robust convection have also developed across the central High Plains from portions of western KS into eastern CO. This activity, too, will propagate east-southeast this evening with an attendant threat for damaging winds, and perhaps some very large hail with any supercell structures. Although, much of this activity has evolved into a squall line, and damaging winds may become the primary risk. Overall, multiple clusters of organized convection will progress across the central Plains this evening toward the lower MO Valley after midnight. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts are possible in parts of the High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the northern Rockies which is quickly advancing into the High Plains. A substantial complex of storms has evolved ahead of this feature, and an MCS appears to be maturing over central NE. As this complex grows upscale, an MCV may evolve over the next few hours within the larger precip shield north of Broken Bow NE. Leading edge of this complex is surging east and this convection should continue propagating east as the LLJ begins to focus toward the MO Valley. Several other bands of robust convection have also developed across the central High Plains from portions of western KS into eastern CO. This activity, too, will propagate east-southeast this evening with an attendant threat for damaging winds, and perhaps some very large hail with any supercell structures. Although, much of this activity has evolved into a squall line, and damaging winds may become the primary risk. Overall, multiple clusters of organized convection will progress across the central Plains this evening toward the lower MO Valley after midnight. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts are possible in parts of the High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the northern Rockies which is quickly advancing into the High Plains. A substantial complex of storms has evolved ahead of this feature, and an MCS appears to be maturing over central NE. As this complex grows upscale, an MCV may evolve over the next few hours within the larger precip shield north of Broken Bow NE. Leading edge of this complex is surging east and this convection should continue propagating east as the LLJ begins to focus toward the MO Valley. Several other bands of robust convection have also developed across the central High Plains from portions of western KS into eastern CO. This activity, too, will propagate east-southeast this evening with an attendant threat for damaging winds, and perhaps some very large hail with any supercell structures. Although, much of this activity has evolved into a squall line, and damaging winds may become the primary risk. Overall, multiple clusters of organized convection will progress across the central Plains this evening toward the lower MO Valley after midnight. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts are possible in parts of the High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the northern Rockies which is quickly advancing into the High Plains. A substantial complex of storms has evolved ahead of this feature, and an MCS appears to be maturing over central NE. As this complex grows upscale, an MCV may evolve over the next few hours within the larger precip shield north of Broken Bow NE. Leading edge of this complex is surging east and this convection should continue propagating east as the LLJ begins to focus toward the MO Valley. Several other bands of robust convection have also developed across the central High Plains from portions of western KS into eastern CO. This activity, too, will propagate east-southeast this evening with an attendant threat for damaging winds, and perhaps some very large hail with any supercell structures. Although, much of this activity has evolved into a squall line, and damaging winds may become the primary risk. Overall, multiple clusters of organized convection will progress across the central Plains this evening toward the lower MO Valley after midnight. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts are possible in parts of the High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the northern Rockies which is quickly advancing into the High Plains. A substantial complex of storms has evolved ahead of this feature, and an MCS appears to be maturing over central NE. As this complex grows upscale, an MCV may evolve over the next few hours within the larger precip shield north of Broken Bow NE. Leading edge of this complex is surging east and this convection should continue propagating east as the LLJ begins to focus toward the MO Valley. Several other bands of robust convection have also developed across the central High Plains from portions of western KS into eastern CO. This activity, too, will propagate east-southeast this evening with an attendant threat for damaging winds, and perhaps some very large hail with any supercell structures. Although, much of this activity has evolved into a squall line, and damaging winds may become the primary risk. Overall, multiple clusters of organized convection will progress across the central Plains this evening toward the lower MO Valley after midnight. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC Jul 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts are possible in parts of the High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the northern Rockies which is quickly advancing into the High Plains. A substantial complex of storms has evolved ahead of this feature, and an MCS appears to be maturing over central NE. As this complex grows upscale, an MCV may evolve over the next few hours within the larger precip shield north of Broken Bow NE. Leading edge of this complex is surging east and this convection should continue propagating east as the LLJ begins to focus toward the MO Valley. Several other bands of robust convection have also developed across the central High Plains from portions of western KS into eastern CO. This activity, too, will propagate east-southeast this evening with an attendant threat for damaging winds, and perhaps some very large hail with any supercell structures. Although, much of this activity has evolved into a squall line, and damaging winds may become the primary risk. Overall, multiple clusters of organized convection will progress across the central Plains this evening toward the lower MO Valley after midnight. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC MD 1528

1 year ago
MD 1528 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1528 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southeast Missouri...extreme southern Illinois...extreme southwestern Indiana...western into central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032310Z - 040045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts (one or two of which may reach the 50-60 mph range) remain possible this afternoon. The severe threat is expected to remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...An uptick in thunderstorm coverage and intensity has recently occurred along a stationary boundary, evident via MRMS mosaic and regional radar imagery. These storms are slowly propagating southward into a pristine environment with surface temperatures still over 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. Still, vertical shear is modest at best, with around 30 kts of effective bulk shear that is oriented (vector-wise) roughly parallel with the orientation of ongoing linear convection. Given 7.5 0-3 km lapse rates, at least a couple of strong wind gusts are possible, and a severe gust cannot be completely ruled out. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH... LAT...LON 36689041 37618858 37988739 38128609 38018584 37408556 36888580 36748696 36638825 36598970 36689041 Read more

SPC MD 1529

1 year ago
MD 1529 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501...503... FOR SOUTHWEST SD AND NORTHWEST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1529 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...Southwest SD and northwest NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501...503... Valid 032316Z - 040045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501, 503 continues. SUMMARY...A long-lived supercell may continue to produce large hail as it moves east-southeast in southwest South Dakota. Additional higher-based storms may develop to its southwest in northwest Nebraska, yielding a severe threat beyond the 01Z expiration of WW 501. DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell has tracked across a part of the Black Hills with several reported severe hail events, most recently up to around 1.5 inches in diameter. Per UDX radar, this cell is riding immediately behind the composite outflow/front moving southeast in southwest SD. The trailing portion of this boundary will impinge on a pocket of residual buoyancy that was not overturned by the QLCS in north-central to southwest NE. Recent HRRR guidance has been insistent on additional development through dusk, which would likely yield potential for a supercell or two into northwest NE after the 01Z scheduled expiration of WW 501. This threat should be short-lived however, given the extensive nature of the QLCS to the southeast and eventual inflow of overturned air as it advects northwestward this evening. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43820293 43620136 43180112 42750114 42440198 42350272 42350339 42700407 43070432 43820293 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0504 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 504 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1530 ..MOORE..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 504 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC141-147-163-183-040140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS SMITH NEC001-003-011-019-027-047-061-065-073-077-079-083-093-099-107- 119-121-125-137-139-141-163-167-175-179-181-040140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE BUFFALO CEDAR DAWSON FRANKLIN FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY HALL HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY KNOX MADISON MERRICK NANCE PHELPS PIERCE PLATTE SHERMAN STANTON VALLEY WAYNE WEBSTER Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0502 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CAO TO 40 S LHX TO 15 ESE PUB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1530 ..MOORE..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-061-063-089-099-125-040140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON OTERO PROWERS YUMA KSC023-039-055-063-065-067-071-075-081-093-101-109-129-137-153- 171-175-179-181-187-189-193-199-203-040140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LANE LOGAN MORTON NORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0501 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW AKO TO 30 SSE SNY TO 20 NE CDR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC039-073-095-115-121-040040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELBERT LINCOLN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-049-063-069-071-075-085-089-091- 101-103-111-113-115-117-135-149-161-171-183-040040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GARFIELD GRANT HAYES HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK SHERIDAN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0501 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW AKO TO 30 SSE SNY TO 20 NE CDR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC039-073-095-115-121-040040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELBERT LINCOLN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-049-063-069-071-075-085-089-091- 101-103-111-113-115-117-135-149-161-171-183-040040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GARFIELD GRANT HAYES HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK SHERIDAN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0501 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW AKO TO 30 SSE SNY TO 20 NE CDR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC039-073-095-115-121-040040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELBERT LINCOLN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-049-063-069-071-075-085-089-091- 101-103-111-113-115-117-135-149-161-171-183-040040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GARFIELD GRANT HAYES HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK SHERIDAN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0501 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW AKO TO 30 SSE SNY TO 20 NE CDR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC039-073-095-115-121-040040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELBERT LINCOLN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-049-063-069-071-075-085-089-091- 101-103-111-113-115-117-135-149-161-171-183-040040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GARFIELD GRANT HAYES HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK SHERIDAN Read more

SPC MD 1527

1 year ago
MD 1527 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502... FOR SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1527 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...southeast CO and southwest KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502... Valid 032246Z - 040015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502 continues. SUMMARY...A swath of severe wind gusts will likely spread into southwest Kansas from southeast Colorado. Gusts of 60-75 mph are probable. DISCUSSION...Initial cells are consolidating into a small cluster near and south of LHX in southeast CO. While this process is yielding weakening MRMS MESH cores, the threat for severe wind gusts will likely persist eastward as the cluster impinges on peak MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg near the southwest KS border. Recent WoFS guidance has been consistent that severe wind gusts will likely spread at least a couple tiers of counties into KS, with speeds of 70-75 mph anticipated. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 38110369 38460225 38440154 38000118 37590135 37340208 37560338 38110369 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501

1 year ago
WW 501 SEVERE TSTM CO NE 031840Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 501 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado The Nebraska Panhandle into Central Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until 700 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will initially pose a threat for large hail this afternoon. Some of the hail may be very large, with isolated hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph should become an increasing concern late this afternoon and evening as thunderstorms potentially form into a small bowing cluster. A tornado or two also appears possible, mainly across north-central Nebraska. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Valentine NE to 15 miles west southwest of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0503 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 503 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE DGW TO 30 NNW PHP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 503 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-047-071-102-103-040040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more