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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 4 21:55:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1535 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND VICINITY.
Mesoscale Discussion 1535 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Areas affected...from southwest Oklahoma into southwest Missouri...and vicinity. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041910Z - 042145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form after 20Z, with scattered strong to possibly severe downbursts. DISCUSSION...A surface trough and wind shift extend roughly from northwest TX across central OK and into southwest MO. Low pressure was noted over southwest OK, with substantial moisture convergence along the boundary. GPS PWAT values remain at over 1.75" over most of the area, even extending as far southwest as Childress, TX. While midlevel lapse rates are modest, low-level lapse rates are steepening, resulting in moderate instability overall. Towering CU near the boundary should form into storms over the next few hours, with multicellular storm mode supporting brief strong to severe outflows. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35179534 34489786 34190004 34470033 35090011 35609958 36419755 37189566 37589467 37569414 37419387 37099372 36699368 36079380 35799395 35549428 35179534 Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OWB TO 25 SSW LEX TO 40 NW JKL TO 35 W HTS. ..MOORE..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC021-025-063-065-079-085-093-109-123-129-151-153-155-165-175- 189-197-205-237-042240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYLE BREATHITT ELLIOTT ESTILL GARRARD GRAYSON HARDIN JACKSON LARUE LEE MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION MENIFEE MORGAN OWSLEY POWELL ROWAN WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OWB TO 25 SSW LEX TO 40 NW JKL TO 35 W HTS. ..MOORE..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC021-025-063-065-079-085-093-109-123-129-151-153-155-165-175- 189-197-205-237-042240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYLE BREATHITT ELLIOTT ESTILL GARRARD GRAYSON HARDIN JACKSON LARUE LEE MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION MENIFEE MORGAN OWSLEY POWELL ROWAN WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 505 SEVERE TSTM IN KY 041655Z - 042300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Indiana Northern and Central Kentucky * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms should strengthen further this afternoon as it moves eastward while posing a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds up to 55-70 mph. A brief tornado or two embedded within the line may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Louisville KY to 80 miles east of Lexington KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 20:32:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 21:28:58 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone this afternoon consists of a small area of deep convection over the center, with a curved band over the western portion of the circulation. Various satellite estimates today indicate the compact system could be stronger than previously estimated. Recent UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates (including ADT, AiDT, DPRINT, and SATCON) range from 31-35 kt. SAB and TAFB provided T2.0 final-T numbers, although SAB did report a T2.5 data-T number. Also, there was an earlier RCM-1 SAR overpass that showed tropical-storm-force winds within the compact circulation. Given the small size of the system, these higher estimates appear believable, and so the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Aletta. Aletta is moving northwestward (315 degrees) at around 9 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday as the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. Aletta is likely at or near its peak intensity. The bulk of the intensity guidance shows weakening over the next day or two while the storm moves into a drier environment over cooler SSTs. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF show convection could collapse overnight or early Friday, and the low is forecast to spin down and dissipate later this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.9N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 042031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Aletta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ALETTA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 107.0W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 107.0 West. Aletta is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or two. Aletta is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ALETTA... As of 2:00 PM MST Thu Jul 4 the center of Aletta was located near 17.9, -107.0 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 042031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 042030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 108.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.8N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OWB TO 35 SE SDF TO 10 NE LEX TO 45 NE LEX TO 15 NW HTS. ..MOORE..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-017-021-025-043-049-063-065-067-079-085-093-109-113-123- 129-151-153-155-165-167-173-175-181-189-197-205-229-237- 042140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOURBON BOYLE BREATHITT CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE GARRARD GRAYSON HARDIN JACKSON JESSAMINE LARUE LEE MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION MENIFEE MERCER MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS OWSLEY POWELL ROWAN WASHINGTON WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1534 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1534 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Areas affected...central/northern Iowa...southern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041858Z - 042100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may increase in coverage through the afternoon and evening with potential for damaging winds and large hail. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing near a cold front moving eastward across Iowa and southern Minnesota. Surface observations show a boundary lifting slowly across northern Iowa, with additional cu developing and a few thunderstorms that have initiated across eastern/northern Iowa into southern Minnesota. Instability has been slow to increase and confined within a smaller corridor across northwestern Iowa. Clearing south of the warm front has led to an increase in heating and some airmass recovery, with MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible across the cold front and northward lifting boundary through the afternoon. North of the warm front, supercells capable of large hail will be possible, given deep layer shear around 30-45 kts near the IA/MN border. As stronger mid-level flow overspreads central Iowa through the afternoon, deep layer shear will increase across central/northern Iowa. This may support development of a few supercells, with potential for large hail and damaging wind should the thermodynamic environment be able to further destabilize. Given lower confidence in this scenario at this time, trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance later this afternoon. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 43179483 43769477 44419391 44409205 44039157 43729132 43279117 42839120 42289224 42549476 43179483 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through this evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, and from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of MN/IA in-line with the current location of the surface cold front. Otherwise, only minor changes have been made to the 10 percent general thunderstorm line. Overall forecast thinking remains similar to the previous outlook. However, coverage of severe storms across parts of southern IL into the Ohio Valley (outside of WW 505) is uncertain the remainder of the period. However, a very moist and unstable airmass resides across the area. Additional storms may develop this evening/overnight along the surface front, and any other storms that can develop through evening would pose severe gust potential, precluding a downgrade in probabilities at this time. For information on short term severe potential across the Upper MS Valley and the southern Plains, reference MCDS 1534 and 1535. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains will move generally eastward today across the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley. A separate, convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum is present over southern IA/northern MO late this morning. This MCV and associated convection across the OH Valley will move east-northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest through this evening. At the surface, a weak low should develop eastward across parts of the Upper Midwest in tandem with the large-scale upper trough. Another weak surface low should also track northeastward over the OH Valley with the remnant MCV. A convectively reinforced front draped from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across the lower OH Valley. The rather moist low-level airmass along/south of a front will continue to gradually destabilize through the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, moderate instability has already developed downstream of activity moving across southern IN and western KY. Additional intensification of this convection will probably occur through early afternoon across parts of central/eastern KY and perhaps southern OH ahead of the MCV. Even though stronger mid-level flow may tend to remain displaced to the north of the front, modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds occasionally reaching severe thresholds should be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across the lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening. Low-level flow is forecast to remain generally modest and veered to southwesterly. Still, sufficient speed shear will be present to support some threat for updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two, especially if any supercells can develop and persist. Isolated hail may also occur with more robust cores. Confidence in strong convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains in the Mid-Atlantic is relatively low. But, any thunderstorms that do form across this region could produce locally damaging winds. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... The portion of the cold front extending across the southern Plains into the Ozarks is forecast to make only slow southward progress through this evening. Even with some mid/high-level clouds persisting across these areas, robust daytime heating along/south of the front will likely encourage surface temperatures to warm into the 90s and low 100s. Even though low/mid-level flow will remain fairly weak, rather large surface temperature/dewpoint spreads (up to 30-40 degrees F) and steepened low-level lapse rates should foster a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and evening. Robust convection appears probable along/near the front by 22-00Z, and there appears to be some potential for an organized cluster to develop over the Ozarks/southern MO vicinity and sweep east-southeastward through the late evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A focused area of ascent associated with the upper trough will overspread southern MN and northern IA today. While cloud cover remains prevalent over much of this region late this morning, there has been some recent clearing on the western edge of the cloud deck. A relatively small area of modest destabilization is still anticipated, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg possible. A 45-60 kt mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough will overspread the developing warm sector through the afternoon. This jet will aid sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercells with an associated threat for severe hail. Some clustering/upscale growth may eventually occur, which would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should weaken by late evening into WI and northern IL as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through this evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, and from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of MN/IA in-line with the current location of the surface cold front. Otherwise, only minor changes have been made to the 10 percent general thunderstorm line. Overall forecast thinking remains similar to the previous outlook. However, coverage of severe storms across parts of southern IL into the Ohio Valley (outside of WW 505) is uncertain the remainder of the period. However, a very moist and unstable airmass resides across the area. Additional storms may develop this evening/overnight along the surface front, and any other storms that can develop through evening would pose severe gust potential, precluding a downgrade in probabilities at this time. For information on short term severe potential across the Upper MS Valley and the southern Plains, reference MCDS 1534 and 1535. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains will move generally eastward today across the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley. A separate, convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum is present over southern IA/northern MO late this morning. This MCV and associated convection across the OH Valley will move east-northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest through this evening. At the surface, a weak low should develop eastward across parts of the Upper Midwest in tandem with the large-scale upper trough. Another weak surface low should also track northeastward over the OH Valley with the remnant MCV. A convectively reinforced front draped from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across the lower OH Valley. The rather moist low-level airmass along/south of a front will continue to gradually destabilize through the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, moderate instability has already developed downstream of activity moving across southern IN and western KY. Additional intensification of this convection will probably occur through early afternoon across parts of central/eastern KY and perhaps southern OH ahead of the MCV. Even though stronger mid-level flow may tend to remain displaced to the north of the front, modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds occasionally reaching severe thresholds should be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across the lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening. Low-level flow is forecast to remain generally modest and veered to southwesterly. Still, sufficient speed shear will be present to support some threat for updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two, especially if any supercells can develop and persist. Isolated hail may also occur with more robust cores. Confidence in strong convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains in the Mid-Atlantic is relatively low. But, any thunderstorms that do form across this region could produce locally damaging winds. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... The portion of the cold front extending across the southern Plains into the Ozarks is forecast to make only slow southward progress through this evening. Even with some mid/high-level clouds persisting across these areas, robust daytime heating along/south of the front will likely encourage surface temperatures to warm into the 90s and low 100s. Even though low/mid-level flow will remain fairly weak, rather large surface temperature/dewpoint spreads (up to 30-40 degrees F) and steepened low-level lapse rates should foster a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and evening. Robust convection appears probable along/near the front by 22-00Z, and there appears to be some potential for an organized cluster to develop over the Ozarks/southern MO vicinity and sweep east-southeastward through the late evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A focused area of ascent associated with the upper trough will overspread southern MN and northern IA today. While cloud cover remains prevalent over much of this region late this morning, there has been some recent clearing on the western edge of the cloud deck. A relatively small area of modest destabilization is still anticipated, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg possible. A 45-60 kt mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough will overspread the developing warm sector through the afternoon. This jet will aid sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercells with an associated threat for severe hail. Some clustering/upscale growth may eventually occur, which would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should weaken by late evening into WI and northern IL as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more