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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The Elevated area over southern California was adjusted slightly to better conform to the terrain of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Isolated 15-20 mph northerly wind gusts, extremely warm temperatures, and very low RH are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally dry and breezy conditions remain possible across the Wasatch and the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin. However, winds continue to trend weaker with most guidance and should remain below Elevated criteria. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, and from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains will move generally eastward today across the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley. A separate, convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum is present over southern IA/northern MO late this morning. This MCV and associated convection across the OH Valley will move east-northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest through this evening. At the surface, a weak low should develop eastward across parts of the Upper Midwest in tandem with the large-scale upper trough. Another weak surface low should also track northeastward over the OH Valley with the remnant MCV. A convectively reinforced front draped from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across the lower OH Valley. The rather moist low-level airmass along/south of a front will continue to gradually destabilize through the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, moderate instability has already developed downstream of activity moving across southern IN and western KY. Additional intensification of this convection will probably occur through early afternoon across parts of central/eastern KY and perhaps southern OH ahead of the MCV. Even though stronger mid-level flow may tend to remain displaced to the north of the front, modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds occasionally reaching severe thresholds should be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across the lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening. Low-level flow is forecast to remain generally modest and veered to southwesterly. Still, sufficient speed shear will be present to support some threat for updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two, especially if any supercells can develop and persist. Isolated hail may also occur with more robust cores. Confidence in strong convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains in the Mid-Atlantic is relatively low. But, any thunderstorms that do form across this region could produce locally damaging winds. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... The portion of the cold front extending across the southern Plains into the Ozarks is forecast to make only slow southward progress through this evening. Even with some mid/high-level clouds persisting across these areas, robust daytime heating along/south of the front will likely encourage surface temperatures to warm into the 90s and low 100s. Even though low/mid-level flow will remain fairly weak, rather large surface temperature/dewpoint spreads (up to 30-40 degrees F) and steepened low-level lapse rates should foster a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and evening. Robust convection appears probable along/near the front by 22-00Z, and there appears to be some potential for an organized cluster to develop over the Ozarks/southern MO vicinity and sweep east-southeastward through the late evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A focused area of ascent associated with the upper trough will overspread southern MN and northern IA today. While cloud cover remains prevalent over much of this region late this morning, there has been some recent clearing on the western edge of the cloud deck. A relatively small area of modest destabilization is still anticipated, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg possible. A 45-60 kt mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough will overspread the developing warm sector through the afternoon. This jet will aid sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercells with an associated threat for severe hail. Some clustering/upscale growth may eventually occur, which would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should weaken by late evening into WI and northern IL as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, and from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains will move generally eastward today across the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley. A separate, convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum is present over southern IA/northern MO late this morning. This MCV and associated convection across the OH Valley will move east-northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest through this evening. At the surface, a weak low should develop eastward across parts of the Upper Midwest in tandem with the large-scale upper trough. Another weak surface low should also track northeastward over the OH Valley with the remnant MCV. A convectively reinforced front draped from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across the lower OH Valley. The rather moist low-level airmass along/south of a front will continue to gradually destabilize through the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, moderate instability has already developed downstream of activity moving across southern IN and western KY. Additional intensification of this convection will probably occur through early afternoon across parts of central/eastern KY and perhaps southern OH ahead of the MCV. Even though stronger mid-level flow may tend to remain displaced to the north of the front, modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds occasionally reaching severe thresholds should be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across the lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening. Low-level flow is forecast to remain generally modest and veered to southwesterly. Still, sufficient speed shear will be present to support some threat for updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two, especially if any supercells can develop and persist. Isolated hail may also occur with more robust cores. Confidence in strong convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains in the Mid-Atlantic is relatively low. But, any thunderstorms that do form across this region could produce locally damaging winds. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... The portion of the cold front extending across the southern Plains into the Ozarks is forecast to make only slow southward progress through this evening. Even with some mid/high-level clouds persisting across these areas, robust daytime heating along/south of the front will likely encourage surface temperatures to warm into the 90s and low 100s. Even though low/mid-level flow will remain fairly weak, rather large surface temperature/dewpoint spreads (up to 30-40 degrees F) and steepened low-level lapse rates should foster a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and evening. Robust convection appears probable along/near the front by 22-00Z, and there appears to be some potential for an organized cluster to develop over the Ozarks/southern MO vicinity and sweep east-southeastward through the late evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A focused area of ascent associated with the upper trough will overspread southern MN and northern IA today. While cloud cover remains prevalent over much of this region late this morning, there has been some recent clearing on the western edge of the cloud deck. A relatively small area of modest destabilization is still anticipated, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg possible. A 45-60 kt mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough will overspread the developing warm sector through the afternoon. This jet will aid sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercells with an associated threat for severe hail. Some clustering/upscale growth may eventually occur, which would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should weaken by late evening into WI and northern IL as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, and from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains will move generally eastward today across the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley. A separate, convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum is present over southern IA/northern MO late this morning. This MCV and associated convection across the OH Valley will move east-northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest through this evening. At the surface, a weak low should develop eastward across parts of the Upper Midwest in tandem with the large-scale upper trough. Another weak surface low should also track northeastward over the OH Valley with the remnant MCV. A convectively reinforced front draped from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across the lower OH Valley. The rather moist low-level airmass along/south of a front will continue to gradually destabilize through the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, moderate instability has already developed downstream of activity moving across southern IN and western KY. Additional intensification of this convection will probably occur through early afternoon across parts of central/eastern KY and perhaps southern OH ahead of the MCV. Even though stronger mid-level flow may tend to remain displaced to the north of the front, modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds occasionally reaching severe thresholds should be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across the lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening. Low-level flow is forecast to remain generally modest and veered to southwesterly. Still, sufficient speed shear will be present to support some threat for updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two, especially if any supercells can develop and persist. Isolated hail may also occur with more robust cores. Confidence in strong convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains in the Mid-Atlantic is relatively low. But, any thunderstorms that do form across this region could produce locally damaging winds. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... The portion of the cold front extending across the southern Plains into the Ozarks is forecast to make only slow southward progress through this evening. Even with some mid/high-level clouds persisting across these areas, robust daytime heating along/south of the front will likely encourage surface temperatures to warm into the 90s and low 100s. Even though low/mid-level flow will remain fairly weak, rather large surface temperature/dewpoint spreads (up to 30-40 degrees F) and steepened low-level lapse rates should foster a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and evening. Robust convection appears probable along/near the front by 22-00Z, and there appears to be some potential for an organized cluster to develop over the Ozarks/southern MO vicinity and sweep east-southeastward through the late evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A focused area of ascent associated with the upper trough will overspread southern MN and northern IA today. While cloud cover remains prevalent over much of this region late this morning, there has been some recent clearing on the western edge of the cloud deck. A relatively small area of modest destabilization is still anticipated, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg possible. A 45-60 kt mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough will overspread the developing warm sector through the afternoon. This jet will aid sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercells with an associated threat for severe hail. Some clustering/upscale growth may eventually occur, which would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should weaken by late evening into WI and northern IL as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, and from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains will move generally eastward today across the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley. A separate, convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum is present over southern IA/northern MO late this morning. This MCV and associated convection across the OH Valley will move east-northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest through this evening. At the surface, a weak low should develop eastward across parts of the Upper Midwest in tandem with the large-scale upper trough. Another weak surface low should also track northeastward over the OH Valley with the remnant MCV. A convectively reinforced front draped from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across the lower OH Valley. The rather moist low-level airmass along/south of a front will continue to gradually destabilize through the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, moderate instability has already developed downstream of activity moving across southern IN and western KY. Additional intensification of this convection will probably occur through early afternoon across parts of central/eastern KY and perhaps southern OH ahead of the MCV. Even though stronger mid-level flow may tend to remain displaced to the north of the front, modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds occasionally reaching severe thresholds should be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across the lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening. Low-level flow is forecast to remain generally modest and veered to southwesterly. Still, sufficient speed shear will be present to support some threat for updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two, especially if any supercells can develop and persist. Isolated hail may also occur with more robust cores. Confidence in strong convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains in the Mid-Atlantic is relatively low. But, any thunderstorms that do form across this region could produce locally damaging winds. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... The portion of the cold front extending across the southern Plains into the Ozarks is forecast to make only slow southward progress through this evening. Even with some mid/high-level clouds persisting across these areas, robust daytime heating along/south of the front will likely encourage surface temperatures to warm into the 90s and low 100s. Even though low/mid-level flow will remain fairly weak, rather large surface temperature/dewpoint spreads (up to 30-40 degrees F) and steepened low-level lapse rates should foster a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and evening. Robust convection appears probable along/near the front by 22-00Z, and there appears to be some potential for an organized cluster to develop over the Ozarks/southern MO vicinity and sweep east-southeastward through the late evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A focused area of ascent associated with the upper trough will overspread southern MN and northern IA today. While cloud cover remains prevalent over much of this region late this morning, there has been some recent clearing on the western edge of the cloud deck. A relatively small area of modest destabilization is still anticipated, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg possible. A 45-60 kt mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough will overspread the developing warm sector through the afternoon. This jet will aid sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercells with an associated threat for severe hail. Some clustering/upscale growth may eventually occur, which would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should weaken by late evening into WI and northern IL as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, and from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains will move generally eastward today across the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley. A separate, convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum is present over southern IA/northern MO late this morning. This MCV and associated convection across the OH Valley will move east-northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest through this evening. At the surface, a weak low should develop eastward across parts of the Upper Midwest in tandem with the large-scale upper trough. Another weak surface low should also track northeastward over the OH Valley with the remnant MCV. A convectively reinforced front draped from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across the lower OH Valley. The rather moist low-level airmass along/south of a front will continue to gradually destabilize through the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, moderate instability has already developed downstream of activity moving across southern IN and western KY. Additional intensification of this convection will probably occur through early afternoon across parts of central/eastern KY and perhaps southern OH ahead of the MCV. Even though stronger mid-level flow may tend to remain displaced to the north of the front, modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds occasionally reaching severe thresholds should be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across the lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening. Low-level flow is forecast to remain generally modest and veered to southwesterly. Still, sufficient speed shear will be present to support some threat for updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two, especially if any supercells can develop and persist. Isolated hail may also occur with more robust cores. Confidence in strong convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains in the Mid-Atlantic is relatively low. But, any thunderstorms that do form across this region could produce locally damaging winds. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... The portion of the cold front extending across the southern Plains into the Ozarks is forecast to make only slow southward progress through this evening. Even with some mid/high-level clouds persisting across these areas, robust daytime heating along/south of the front will likely encourage surface temperatures to warm into the 90s and low 100s. Even though low/mid-level flow will remain fairly weak, rather large surface temperature/dewpoint spreads (up to 30-40 degrees F) and steepened low-level lapse rates should foster a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and evening. Robust convection appears probable along/near the front by 22-00Z, and there appears to be some potential for an organized cluster to develop over the Ozarks/southern MO vicinity and sweep east-southeastward through the late evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A focused area of ascent associated with the upper trough will overspread southern MN and northern IA today. While cloud cover remains prevalent over much of this region late this morning, there has been some recent clearing on the western edge of the cloud deck. A relatively small area of modest destabilization is still anticipated, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg possible. A 45-60 kt mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough will overspread the developing warm sector through the afternoon. This jet will aid sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercells with an associated threat for severe hail. Some clustering/upscale growth may eventually occur, which would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should weaken by late evening into WI and northern IL as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, and from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains will move generally eastward today across the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley. A separate, convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum is present over southern IA/northern MO late this morning. This MCV and associated convection across the OH Valley will move east-northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest through this evening. At the surface, a weak low should develop eastward across parts of the Upper Midwest in tandem with the large-scale upper trough. Another weak surface low should also track northeastward over the OH Valley with the remnant MCV. A convectively reinforced front draped from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across the lower OH Valley. The rather moist low-level airmass along/south of a front will continue to gradually destabilize through the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, moderate instability has already developed downstream of activity moving across southern IN and western KY. Additional intensification of this convection will probably occur through early afternoon across parts of central/eastern KY and perhaps southern OH ahead of the MCV. Even though stronger mid-level flow may tend to remain displaced to the north of the front, modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds occasionally reaching severe thresholds should be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across the lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening. Low-level flow is forecast to remain generally modest and veered to southwesterly. Still, sufficient speed shear will be present to support some threat for updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two, especially if any supercells can develop and persist. Isolated hail may also occur with more robust cores. Confidence in strong convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains in the Mid-Atlantic is relatively low. But, any thunderstorms that do form across this region could produce locally damaging winds. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... The portion of the cold front extending across the southern Plains into the Ozarks is forecast to make only slow southward progress through this evening. Even with some mid/high-level clouds persisting across these areas, robust daytime heating along/south of the front will likely encourage surface temperatures to warm into the 90s and low 100s. Even though low/mid-level flow will remain fairly weak, rather large surface temperature/dewpoint spreads (up to 30-40 degrees F) and steepened low-level lapse rates should foster a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and evening. Robust convection appears probable along/near the front by 22-00Z, and there appears to be some potential for an organized cluster to develop over the Ozarks/southern MO vicinity and sweep east-southeastward through the late evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A focused area of ascent associated with the upper trough will overspread southern MN and northern IA today. While cloud cover remains prevalent over much of this region late this morning, there has been some recent clearing on the western edge of the cloud deck. A relatively small area of modest destabilization is still anticipated, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg possible. A 45-60 kt mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough will overspread the developing warm sector through the afternoon. This jet will aid sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercells with an associated threat for severe hail. Some clustering/upscale growth may eventually occur, which would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should weaken by late evening into WI and northern IL as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, and from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains will move generally eastward today across the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley. A separate, convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum is present over southern IA/northern MO late this morning. This MCV and associated convection across the OH Valley will move east-northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest through this evening. At the surface, a weak low should develop eastward across parts of the Upper Midwest in tandem with the large-scale upper trough. Another weak surface low should also track northeastward over the OH Valley with the remnant MCV. A convectively reinforced front draped from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across the lower OH Valley. The rather moist low-level airmass along/south of a front will continue to gradually destabilize through the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, moderate instability has already developed downstream of activity moving across southern IN and western KY. Additional intensification of this convection will probably occur through early afternoon across parts of central/eastern KY and perhaps southern OH ahead of the MCV. Even though stronger mid-level flow may tend to remain displaced to the north of the front, modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds occasionally reaching severe thresholds should be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across the lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening. Low-level flow is forecast to remain generally modest and veered to southwesterly. Still, sufficient speed shear will be present to support some threat for updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two, especially if any supercells can develop and persist. Isolated hail may also occur with more robust cores. Confidence in strong convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains in the Mid-Atlantic is relatively low. But, any thunderstorms that do form across this region could produce locally damaging winds. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... The portion of the cold front extending across the southern Plains into the Ozarks is forecast to make only slow southward progress through this evening. Even with some mid/high-level clouds persisting across these areas, robust daytime heating along/south of the front will likely encourage surface temperatures to warm into the 90s and low 100s. Even though low/mid-level flow will remain fairly weak, rather large surface temperature/dewpoint spreads (up to 30-40 degrees F) and steepened low-level lapse rates should foster a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and evening. Robust convection appears probable along/near the front by 22-00Z, and there appears to be some potential for an organized cluster to develop over the Ozarks/southern MO vicinity and sweep east-southeastward through the late evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A focused area of ascent associated with the upper trough will overspread southern MN and northern IA today. While cloud cover remains prevalent over much of this region late this morning, there has been some recent clearing on the western edge of the cloud deck. A relatively small area of modest destabilization is still anticipated, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg possible. A 45-60 kt mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough will overspread the developing warm sector through the afternoon. This jet will aid sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercells with an associated threat for severe hail. Some clustering/upscale growth may eventually occur, which would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should weaken by late evening into WI and northern IL as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, and from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains will move generally eastward today across the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley. A separate, convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum is present over southern IA/northern MO late this morning. This MCV and associated convection across the OH Valley will move east-northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest through this evening. At the surface, a weak low should develop eastward across parts of the Upper Midwest in tandem with the large-scale upper trough. Another weak surface low should also track northeastward over the OH Valley with the remnant MCV. A convectively reinforced front draped from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Mostly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across the lower OH Valley. The rather moist low-level airmass along/south of a front will continue to gradually destabilize through the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, moderate instability has already developed downstream of activity moving across southern IN and western KY. Additional intensification of this convection will probably occur through early afternoon across parts of central/eastern KY and perhaps southern OH ahead of the MCV. Even though stronger mid-level flow may tend to remain displaced to the north of the front, modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds occasionally reaching severe thresholds should be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across the lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening. Low-level flow is forecast to remain generally modest and veered to southwesterly. Still, sufficient speed shear will be present to support some threat for updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two, especially if any supercells can develop and persist. Isolated hail may also occur with more robust cores. Confidence in strong convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains in the Mid-Atlantic is relatively low. But, any thunderstorms that do form across this region could produce locally damaging winds. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... The portion of the cold front extending across the southern Plains into the Ozarks is forecast to make only slow southward progress through this evening. Even with some mid/high-level clouds persisting across these areas, robust daytime heating along/south of the front will likely encourage surface temperatures to warm into the 90s and low 100s. Even though low/mid-level flow will remain fairly weak, rather large surface temperature/dewpoint spreads (up to 30-40 degrees F) and steepened low-level lapse rates should foster a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and evening. Robust convection appears probable along/near the front by 22-00Z, and there appears to be some potential for an organized cluster to develop over the Ozarks/southern MO vicinity and sweep east-southeastward through the late evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A focused area of ascent associated with the upper trough will overspread southern MN and northern IA today. While cloud cover remains prevalent over much of this region late this morning, there has been some recent clearing on the western edge of the cloud deck. A relatively small area of modest destabilization is still anticipated, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg possible. A 45-60 kt mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough will overspread the developing warm sector through the afternoon. This jet will aid sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercells with an associated threat for severe hail. Some clustering/upscale growth may eventually occur, which would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should weaken by late evening into WI and northern IL as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/04/2024 Read more